关税裁决引市场提前布局 金2026开年顺利走出强势形态 发布时间: 2026年1月9日 सेलिक 铝金从2025年5月讲入上涨通道以来整体跟随铂金 坛行,但2026年开年以来表现明显偏强,二者在高频数 据层面的分歧进一步放大。资金流向方面,把金 ETF 延 续流入态势,与铂金 ETF 的资金流出形成鲜明反差;市 场结构上,把金远期费率抬头,NYMEX 把金库存同步 累积,这一特征与铂金、白银的表现呈现分化。 我们认为今日把金的快速上涨,核心驱动力在于市 场提前交易美国关税政策调整的潜在预期。美国最高法 院即将对特朗普普遍关税的合法性作出裁决,若裁定该 关税违法,特朗普大概率将转向其他税收工具,此前市 场密切关注的232 调查落地概率将显著上升,把金作为 关键战略金属,加税预期下资金提前布局推升价格。 从中期逻辑看,铂把一季度趋势向上的判断并未改 变。从伦敦市场租借利率、远期费率及美国库存等高频 指标的整体水位观察,铂把现货端的结构性紧张格局并 未出现缓解迹象,现货紧平衡仍是支撑价格的核心基本 面。不过需要警惕的是, 铂把价格易跟随白银同步回撤, 且回撤幅度通常更大，叠加铂金日线双顶形态较为明显, 技术面上上 ...

针对裁决前景，英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明对第一财经记 者表示，若无意外，仍维持特朗普关税政策大概率被判非法的判断，即其大部分政策都将是"与规则不 符"的。 根据美国海关和边境保护局的数据，如果美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府根据《国际紧急经济权力法》 （IEEPA）征收的关税非法，特朗普政府可能面临向进口商退还超过1335亿美元关税的风险。 本周宣判 特朗普政府2025年1月上台后援引IEEPA，以不经过国会批准、直接颁布行政令的方式出台一系列加征 关税措施。 在美国联邦巡回上诉法院和美国国际贸易法院分别裁定现政府一揽子关税政策违法后，特朗普政府向最 高法院提出上诉，目前案件正在最高法院审理。 目前，特朗普政府援引IEEPA所开征的关税包括所谓"对等关税"和芬太尼关税等。 据央视报道，当地时间1月6日，美国最高法院宣布，将在本周五（9日）就关税问题作出裁决。 具体而言，当前，美国最高法院已将周五定为裁决日，据悉法官们将于当地时间9日上午10点开庭时宣 布可能作出的裁决。 如果届时美国最高法院就关税问题作出不利于特朗普政府的裁决，被认为将削弱特朗普政府标志性的经 济政策，并成为美 ...

2026.01. 07 本文字数：1994，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 据央视报道，当地时间1月6日，美国最高法院宣布，将在本周五（9日）就关税问题作出裁决。 具体而言，当前，美国最高法院已将周五定为裁决日，据悉法官们将于当地时间9日上午10点开庭时宣布可能作出 的裁决。 如果届时美国最高法院就关税问题作出不利于特朗普政府的裁决，被认为将削弱特朗普政府标志性的经济政策，并 成为美国总统特朗普重返白宫以来遭遇的最大法律挫败。 根据美国海关和边境保护局的数据，如果美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府根据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）征 收的关税非法，特朗普政府可能面临向进口商退还超过1335亿美元关税的风险。 本周宣判 特朗普政府2025年1月上台后援引IEEPA，以不经过国会批准、直接颁布行政令的方式出台一系列加征关税措施。 在美国联邦巡回上诉法院和美国国际贸易法院分别裁定现政府一揽子关税政策违法后，特朗普政府向最高法院提出 上诉，目前案件正在最高法院审理。 目前，特朗普政府援引IEEPA所开征的关税包括所谓"对等关税"和芬太尼关税等。 "我们有一个重要的最高法院案件。"特朗普在6日告诉众议院共 ...

Core Points - The USGS has updated its critical minerals list, adding copper, silver, and metallurgical coal, which may increase the likelihood of these materials being included in tariff policies [1] - This update is the most significant since the list was first published in 2018, with a total of 10 new minerals added, bringing the total to 60 [3] - The inclusion of these minerals is part of a broader strategy to secure the supply chain of critical minerals deemed essential for the US economy and national security [2][3] Summary by Category New Additions to the Critical Minerals List - The updated list now includes copper, silver, metallurgical coal, uranium, potassium, rhenium, silicon, and lead among others [1] - The total number of minerals on the list has increased to 60, which includes 15 rare earth elements [3] Implications for Tariff Policies - The inclusion of these minerals allows the US government to conduct Section 232 investigations under the guise of national security [1] - The strategic importance of these minerals is underscored by their critical role in manufacturing and potential supply chain disruptions [2] Market Reactions and Concerns - The addition of silver has raised concerns in the market, as any tariffs on silver could significantly impact the silver market [4][5] - The US imports nearly two-thirds of its silver, which is widely used in electronics, solar panels, jewelry, and investment [5] - Increased inventory levels of silver in New York have been observed, reaching historical highs due to tariff concerns [5]

Core Points - The USGS has updated its critical minerals list, adding copper, silver, and metallurgical coal, which may increase the likelihood of these materials being included in tariff policies [1] - This update is the most significant since the list was first published in 2018, with a total of 10 new minerals added, including uranium, potassium, rhenium, silicon, and lead [1][5] - The updated list now includes 60 minerals, with 15 being rare earth elements, and highlights the supply chain risks associated with certain elements [5] Group 1: New Additions to the List - The USGS defines critical minerals as those essential to the US economy or national security, whose supply chains are vulnerable and whose absence would significantly impact the economy or security [4] - The inclusion of copper and potassium was anticipated, while the addition of silver raises concerns about potential tariffs affecting the silver market [6][7] - The US relies heavily on imports for silver, with about two-thirds of its supply coming from abroad, and the industrial demand for silver has led to a price surge [7] Group 2: Implications of the Update - The updated list signals the US government's priorities, making it easier for designated critical minerals to receive federal support [5] - The inclusion of silver in the list has caused anxiety among traders and manufacturers who depend on it, as tariffs could disrupt the metal market [6][7] - The US has already placed some silver customs codes on the tariff exemption list, indicating that certain types of silver may be less affected by potential tariffs [7]

Group 1 - US President Trump expressed willingness to negotiate with China, leading to a rise in US stock index futures and a rebound in oil prices, improving market sentiment [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index contracts saw gains exceeding 1% following the announcement [1] - US Treasury futures prices fell while oil prices increased by over 1%, and cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly after a previous sell-off [3] Group 2 - Precious metals, particularly silver, experienced significant price increases due to trade tensions, with silver prices rising by 1.1% to reach $51 per ounce, and gold prices hitting a new high of $4060 per ounce [3] - The S&P 500 index has surged due to optimism around artificial intelligence and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, but its current valuation is near a 25-year high, making it vulnerable to negative news [5] - Concerns over the potential impact of Trump's tariff policies on key minerals have heightened market tension, contributing to a supply squeeze and driving silver prices close to historical highs [5] Group 3 - Market discussions are ongoing regarding whether the latest round of tariff impacts will materialize, with potential implications for market volatility and global risk reassessment [6]

Core Points - The Trump administration continues to utilize import tariffs to revitalize U.S. manufacturing and strengthen national security [1][4] - New tariffs include a 10% tax on imported softwood lumber and a 25% tax on imported cabinets and wood products, effective from October 14, with some rates increasing on January 1 [1] - The increase in tariffs is expected to raise costs in the residential construction and renovation sectors, exacerbating housing affordability issues for average Americans [1] - Approximately 30% of the softwood used in the U.S. comes from Canada, which faces a 14.5% countervailing and anti-dumping duty [1] Industry Insights - The new tariffs are part of a broader strategy to restructure domestic supply chains, although domestic lumber production may not meet the immediate demands of builders [4] - There is a noted generational gap in interest towards manufacturing jobs, with younger individuals preferring careers in fields like social media and fashion design [4] - The latest tariff measures stem from an investigation initiated by the U.S. Department of Commerce under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows for tariffs based on national security concerns [4][5] Legislative Context - The U.S. Department of Commerce has also launched new investigations into imports of robots, industrial machinery, and medical devices under the same legal framework [5] - The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) allows the President to impose tariffs without stringent requirements to prove national security concerns, which has been a focal point in recent tariff implementations [5] - The legality of the White House's invocation of IEEPA is set to be debated in the Supreme Court on November 5 [5]

Group 1 - The Trump administration has initiated Section 232 investigations into imported robots, industrial machinery, and medical devices, aiming to encourage domestic manufacturing by increasing import costs [1][2][4] - The investigations are based on the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows the U.S. Department of Commerce to investigate imports that threaten national security, with a deadline of 270 days for policy recommendations [2][3] - The new investigations expand the range of industries potentially facing tariffs, including robots, CNC machining centers, and personal protective equipment (PPE) [2][3] Group 2 - The Trump administration's tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper have generated significant revenue, with July 2023 tariff income reaching $28.44 billion, a 273% increase year-over-year [4] - Despite the increase in tariff revenue, the core objectives of the tariffs are to reduce the trade deficit and promote the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. [4][5] - The manufacturing sector has faced challenges, with job growth in manufacturing being negative since April 2023, indicating difficulties in bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. [5][6] Group 3 - Legal challenges to the Trump administration's tariff measures have emerged, with a ruling stating that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs was unlawful [6][7] - The ruling may impact the administration's ability to implement tariffs under this act, while Section 232 tariffs could be more enduring despite a longer implementation process [7][8] - The National Economic Council has suggested that if the Supreme Court does not support the Trump administration, other legal bases for imposing tariffs may still be pursued [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imposition of tariffs on various products, highlighting the specific rates and categories affected, as well as ongoing investigations into additional tariffs on other goods scheduled for 2025 [1] Tariffs Already Imposed - Tariffs of 25% have been imposed on automobiles and parts, covering passenger cars, SUVs, light trucks, and numerous components [1] - Tariffs of 50% have been applied to copper and its derivatives, although raw materials like copper ore, concentrates, and electrolytic copper are exempt [1] - A 50% tariff has also been levied on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives, with the scope of these tariffs expanding to include components for wind turbines, furniture, and compressors [1] Ongoing Investigations - Investigations into medium and heavy trucks and their parts will commence in April 2025, with details yet to be disclosed [1] - A similar investigation for commercial aircraft and engines and their parts will start in May 2025, with no details provided [1] - Drones, drone systems, and their components will be investigated starting in July 2025, with specifics not yet available [1] - An investigation into polysilicon and its derivatives, crucial for semiconductors and solar panels, will also begin in July 2025 [1] - Medical devices and supplies, including masks, syringes, catheters, pacemakers, and ventilators, will be investigated starting in September 2025 [1] - Robotics and industrial machinery, including CNC machines, industrial stamping machines, and laser cutting equipment, will be under investigation starting in September 2025 [1] - An investigation into logs, wood products, and derivatives will start in March 2025, covering items like furniture, cabinets, and wooden decorative pieces [1] - Pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients will be investigated starting in April 2025, including finished drugs, active ingredients, and key starting materials [1] - Critical minerals, processed minerals, and derivatives will be investigated starting in April 2025, focusing on processed ores and downstream products using these ores [1] - An investigation into semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment will also begin in April 2025, covering semiconductor substrates, bare wafers, legacy chips, advanced chips, and downstream electronic products containing semiconductors [1]

Core Points - The Trump administration has initiated Section 232 investigations into imports of robots, industrial machinery, and medical devices, citing national security concerns [1][5] - The investigations aim to assess the impact of these imports on domestic manufacturing and national security, with a focus on increasing domestic production [1][4] Group 1: Section 232 Investigations - The U.S. Department of Commerce has launched investigations into the import of robots and industrial machinery, which includes various types of machinery and equipment used in manufacturing [3][4] - The scope of the investigation covers a wide range of equipment, including CNC machining centers, lathes, milling machines, and specialized metal processing equipment [3][4] - The investigation into medical devices reflects concerns over U.S. reliance on foreign supplies for essential medical materials, including personal protective equipment (PPE) and medical consumables [5][6] Group 2: Industry Impact - Experts suggest that increasing tariffs on imports could raise manufacturing costs in the U.S., potentially hindering the revival of domestic manufacturing capabilities [1][2] - The investigations encompass a total of 11 categories of products, including steel, aluminum, automotive, and semiconductor products, indicating a broadening of the scope of potential tariffs [2] - The Department of Commerce is seeking input from stakeholders regarding domestic production capabilities and the feasibility of increasing domestic manufacturing to reduce reliance on imports [4][6] Group 3: Expert Opinions - Analysts express skepticism about the effectiveness of tariffs in bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., citing a lack of interest among American workers in low-skilled manufacturing jobs [7]