中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（236）期 发布日期：2025-12-26 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/26 | 2025/12/25 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,107.50 | 1,124.00 | -16.50 | -1.468 | | | 焦炭 | 1,707.00 | 1,739.00 | -32.0 | -1.840 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,715.00 | 15,730.00 | -15.0 | -0.095 | | | 20号胶 | 12,765.00 | 12,695.00 | 70.0 | 0.551 | | | 塑料 | 6,355.00 | 6,390.00 | -35.0 | -0.548 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,220.00 | 6,266.00 | -46.0 | -0.734 | | | (PTA) | 5,216.00 | 5,152.00 | 64.0 | 1.242 | | | P ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has been in a rebound cycle for five consecutive trading days, but the rebound space is limited, with a significant drop occurring on November 21 [2] Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped nearly 100 points on November 21, while the total rebound over the previous five days was just over 50 points, indicating that the rebound is less than half of the single-day drop [2] - The analysis suggests that the speed of the rebound is low due to limited space and prolonged time, making it difficult to determine the scale of the rebound [2] - The certainty of the low point is generally low, lacking structure and sequence, and formed during a sharp decline, making it challenging to predict if the rebound will continue [2] Technical Indicators - A 120-minute chart indicates a small-level top sequence high of 8, and if the market weakens on Monday morning with a drop of over 5 points, closing below 3883 points, the sequence will be rearranged [2] - Conversely, if the closing price is above 3883 points, a sequence high of 9 can be established, indicating a potential short-term small high point [2] - The emphasis is placed on the fact that while the high point is of a small level, the low point still requires further observation [2]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rebounded today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.63% to close at 3863 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.98% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 203.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4000 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The cultivated diamond sector saw explosive growth, with stocks like Huanghe Xuanfeng, Sifangda, and Hengsheng Energy hitting the daily limit [1] - The coal sector experienced significant gains, with stocks such as Baotailong, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, and Baotai Group also reaching the daily limit [1] - Gas stocks rose, with Guo Xin Energy hitting the daily limit [1] - The CPO concept was active, with Cambridge Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - Other sectors with notable gains included F5G concept, robotics, digital watermarking, and brain-computer interface [1] - Conversely, precious metals and gold concepts saw significant declines, with Hunan Silver and Western Gold hitting the daily limit down [1] - The jewelry sector declined, with Cuihua Jewelry dropping over 8% [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector weakened, led by Xinlaifu [1] - Other sectors with notable declines included small metals, genetically modified products, and pork and chicken concepts [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 3863.89 (+24.14, +0.63%) [1] - Shenzhen Component Index: 12813.21 (+124.27, +0.98%) [1] - ChiNext Index: 2993.45 (+58.09, +1.98%) [1] - Other indices such as the Sci-Tech 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 also showed positive movements [1]

Core Insights - Global stock markets experienced a significant drop last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.5%, yet it still recorded a 4% increase for the month. This raises questions about the market's reaction to a single day's decline [3] - The A50 futures index surged by 3% overnight, and the Hong Kong stock market opened 2% higher on Monday, indicating a potential rebound for the A-shares [1][5] - Historical data suggests that A-shares have over a 70% probability of rebounding in the week following futures settlement days, which supports the expectation of a market recovery [5] Market Behavior - Retail investors exhibited panic selling during the market downturn, with many liquidating positions, while those who adopted a buy-the-dip strategy benefited from subsequent rebounds [2][5] - The performance of technology stocks has been volatile, with some investors losing 30% by chasing prices during declines, while others profited by buying at lower prices [2][5] - The comparison of stock prices between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks shows discrepancies, with some companies trading significantly lower in Hong Kong, suggesting potential investment opportunities [5] Investment Strategy - The commentary emphasizes the importance of patience in investment, advocating for maintaining core positions while trading around them to capitalize on market fluctuations [5][7] - The expectation is that A-shares will likely open more than 1% higher on Monday, suggesting that those who sold during the panic may miss out on recovery opportunities [7] - The advice to focus on dividend stocks and index funds is highlighted as a more stable investment strategy compared to speculative trading [7]

Core Viewpoint - The market is approaching a potential upward trend, with key sectors like brokerage firms expected to lead the charge, supported by favorable external conditions such as interest rate cuts and strong performances in overseas markets [1][5]. Market Environment - External factors contributing to a positive outlook for the A-share market include rising expectations for interest rate cuts, rebounds in major global indices, and appreciation of the RMB [1]. - The internal market dynamics show a reduction in short-selling pressure, with major moving averages converging below the index, indicating a potential breakout [3]. Sector Performance - The Hong Kong stock market's strong performance, particularly in technology stocks, signals potential upward momentum for A-shares, as many companies are listed in both markets [3]. - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a pivotal moment, with historical data suggesting that A-shares typically perform well during such periods, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [5]. Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in capital allocation within the market, with rapid rotation among sectors such as semiconductors, AI, consumer goods, and healthcare, indicating a search for new investment directions [5]. - Large institutional investors hold significant stakes in key stocks, suggesting that they can influence index movements with minimal retail participation [5]. Resource and Commodity Outlook - Historical trends indicate that during interest rate cuts, commodities like gold, silver, and copper often perform well due to their financial attributes, with small metal indices and rare earth sectors showing substantial gains this year [6]. Market Sentiment - Overall market sentiment appears to be gradually improving, supported by ongoing policy efforts and marginal improvements in economic data, although short-term volatility may still occur [8]. - Investors are adopting a dual strategy, monitoring both heavyweight stocks and structural opportunities in consumer spending and resource sectors, emphasizing the importance of position management [8].

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a strong performance in August, with the ChiNext Index rising by 24.13% and the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a cumulative increase of 7.97%, maintaining above 3800 points [1] - In the first week of September, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the ChiNext Index surged by 7.74%, indicating active trading with an average daily turnover exceeding 2 trillion [1] Sector Analysis - The technology sector significantly drove the overall market rebound, with industries such as communication equipment, semiconductors, electrical equipment, and automotive parts seeing increases of over 30% due to surging AI computing demand and data center construction [1] - Traditional sectors like oil and gas and steel showed lackluster performance, indicating a shift in capital flow towards high-growth sectors [1] Economic Outlook - Domestic economic recovery is underway, supported by strong exports and favorable policy announcements, including fiscal interest subsidy policies and upcoming measures to expand service consumption [2] - The acceleration of domestic substitution and major infrastructure projects is expected to enhance market vitality [2] Global Market Influences - Rising expectations for global interest rate cuts may provide a favorable funding environment for emerging markets, with increasing likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering rates, which could inject liquidity into the market and boost risk assets [2] - Gold prices have been on the rise, with COMEX gold prices reaching a historical high of $3557.1 per ounce, driven by market expectations of Federal Reserve policy changes and concerns over its independence following recent political events [2][3] Future Market Focus - Key upcoming events include the September 3 military parade showcasing new weaponry and the release of U.S. economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, which will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - Investors are advised to adopt diversified investment strategies to mitigate risks in the current market environment [3]

Group 1 - The trend of capital inflow into the Chinese stock market is strengthening, with A-shares experiencing a three-day rally after a mid-week adjustment, bringing the Shanghai Composite Index close to a new high [1][3] - In July, foreign capital accelerated its net inflow into the Chinese stock market, totaling $2.7 billion, up from $1.2 billion in June, with passive funds contributing $3.9 billion and active funds experiencing an outflow of $1.2 billion [3] - The margin trading balance of A-shares reached 2,000.259 billion yuan, with the financing balance at 1,986.311 billion yuan, both hitting a ten-year high [3] Group 2 - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July surged to 1.9636 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 71% and a month-on-month growth of over 19% [3] - The stock search index for Baidu has significantly increased, currently maintaining around 14,000 since August [3] - Several brokerages believe that the current market is driven by capital, with the risk premium of major stock indices falling below historical averages, indicating a potential for continued market momentum [3]

Group 1 - The domestic economy showed strong resilience in Q2, and the "anti-involution" policies continue to be implemented, leading to a steady rebound in A-shares in July [1] - In August, uncertainties from overseas tariffs and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut may impact the market, while domestic policies are expected to support the stabilization of the capital market [1] - The A-share mid-year reports will enter a concentrated disclosure period, increasing the importance of performance trading [1] Group 2 - Changcheng Fund's manager, Tan Xiaobing, noted multiple factors influencing the market in August, including unclear US-China trade tensions and the upcoming performance window, suggesting a potential short-term market fluctuation [1] - Tan Xiaobing expressed a relatively optimistic view on sectors such as non-bank financials, military industry, and new consumption that has been consolidating for a while [1] - The innovative drug sector is also viewed positively, although due to significant gains in July and a lack of catalysts in August, this sector may experience short-term fluctuations, with potential catalysts expected after September's major meetings and medical insurance negotiations [1]

Market Performance - A-shares continued to rise significantly this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.03% to 3455.97 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index up 1.41%, the ChiNext Index up 2.07%, the STAR Market 50 Index up 1.73%, and the Northbound 50 Index up 1.38% [1] - Total trading volume in the A-share market reached 16,395 billion yuan, an increase from 14,482 billion yuan the previous day [1] - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as brokerage stocks, shipbuilding, aerospace, software development, internet services, and semiconductors, while sectors like mining, oil and gas, and port shipping showed weaker performance [1] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The central bank conducted a 300 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 118 billion yuan after accounting for 182 billion yuan maturing in June [1] - The central bank's proactive stance in injecting liquidity is considered a contributing factor to the strong performance of A-shares [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent testimony indicated a hawkish tone, suggesting that inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise due to tariffs, which may influence interest rate decisions [2] Consumer Support Measures - A joint announcement from six government departments, including the central bank and the Ministry of Finance, outlined 19 specific measures to support and expand consumption, aiming to enhance the foundational role of consumption in economic development [2] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The easing of tensions in the Middle East is seen as a direct support for risk assets, including stocks, and may indirectly benefit the RMB exchange rate, potentially attracting more foreign investment into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] - The recent increase in trading volume over two consecutive days suggests that the recent rise in A-shares may have better sustainability compared to previous rebounds, with a recommendation for investors to hold stocks for potential gains [2] - If trading volume remains above 1.5 trillion yuan, the rebound in A-shares could evolve into a reversal [2] Earnings Reports - As the half-year reporting period approaches, investors are advised to focus on the operational outlook of listed companies while being cautious of short-term earnings risks [3]

Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3400 points, closing around 3360 points, with trading volume shrinking to around 1 trillion [3] - The support level is strong at 3340-3360 points, which corresponds to the lower boundary of a previous consolidation range and the 60-day moving average [3] - The ChiNext Index nearly breached 2000 points, indicating a growing demand for a rebound due to overselling [3] News Impact - The Middle East conflict, particularly between Iran and Israel, has led to rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil experiencing significant increases, potentially exceeding $100 according to Goldman Sachs [4] - This situation presents a dual impact on A-shares: sectors like oil, gas, and gold may benefit, while export-reliant sectors such as electronics and home appliances could face challenges [4] - Domestic policies are supportive, with the launch of cross-border payment services and various financial opening measures announced by the central bank, which could benefit banks and digital currency sectors [4] Policy Environment - The central bank injected 1.4 trillion in liquidity but did not adjust the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), indicating a focus on targeted support rather than broad stimulus [5] - Policy easing in the real estate sector, such as the removal of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou, may provide some stimulus to building materials and home furnishings, but expectations for a significant sector rally should be tempered [5] - Key sectors like semiconductors and AI computing are receiving clear policy support, presenting opportunities during market pullbacks [5] Capital Flow - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of over 20 billion, while domestic institutional investors withdrew more than 60 billion, indicating a cautious market sentiment [6] - Despite the outflows, sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals attracted investment, with banks and utilities serving as safe havens [6] - The valuation advantage of A-shares remains, suggesting that capital may return once geopolitical tensions ease [6] Strategy for Next Week - A cautious approach is recommended, maintaining a position of around 50% to allow for flexibility [7] - Key focus areas include cross-border payment initiatives, oversold technology sectors, and defensive assets like oil and gold [7] - Monitoring trading volume and sector performance will be crucial for potential adjustments in positions [7]