Group 1 - The trend of capital inflow into the Chinese stock market is strengthening, with A-shares experiencing a three-day rally after a mid-week adjustment, bringing the Shanghai Composite Index close to a new high [1][3] - In July, foreign capital accelerated its net inflow into the Chinese stock market, totaling $2.7 billion, up from $1.2 billion in June, with passive funds contributing $3.9 billion and active funds experiencing an outflow of $1.2 billion [3] - The margin trading balance of A-shares reached 2,000.259 billion yuan, with the financing balance at 1,986.311 billion yuan, both hitting a ten-year high [3] Group 2 - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July surged to 1.9636 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 71% and a month-on-month growth of over 19% [3] - The stock search index for Baidu has significantly increased, currently maintaining around 14,000 since August [3] - Several brokerages believe that the current market is driven by capital, with the risk premium of major stock indices falling below historical averages, indicating a potential for continued market momentum [3]

国内经济二季度展现较强韧性，叠加"反内卷"政策持续推进，A股在7月延续反弹势头，稳步上涨。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 进入8月，海外关税扰动或存变数，美联储降息预期升温，与此同时，国内政策有望持续巩固资本 市场回稳向好势头，A股中报也将进入密集披露期，业绩交易的重要性可能进一步提升。多重因素交织 下，当前哪些投资机会或更具潜力？ 责任编辑：郭栩彤 长城基金基金经理谭小兵认为，影响8月份市场的因素较多，中美贸易摩擦局势不明，叠加市场进 入重要的业绩窗口，她认为短期内市场或呈现震荡态势。后续需关注8月下旬美联储关于议息的表态。 具体方向上，谭小兵表示，相对看好非银、军工以及休整较久的新消费等板块。此外，仍然看好创 新药板块，从二季度末公募的持仓分布数据来看，这一轮行情的贝塔或仍处于前半段，不过由于7月涨 幅较大、8月暂缺乏催化，短期内板块可能会震荡，或可等待9月份之后各重磅会议召开及医保谈判预热 的催化。 免责声明：本通讯所载信息来源于本公司认为可靠的渠道和研究员个人判断，但本公司不对其准确性或 完整性提供直接或隐含的声明或保证。此通讯并非对相关证券或市场的完整表述或概括，任何所表达的 意见可能会更 ...

Market Performance - A-shares continued to rise significantly this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.03% to 3455.97 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index up 1.41%, the ChiNext Index up 2.07%, the STAR Market 50 Index up 1.73%, and the Northbound 50 Index up 1.38% [1] - Total trading volume in the A-share market reached 16,395 billion yuan, an increase from 14,482 billion yuan the previous day [1] - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as brokerage stocks, shipbuilding, aerospace, software development, internet services, and semiconductors, while sectors like mining, oil and gas, and port shipping showed weaker performance [1] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The central bank conducted a 300 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 118 billion yuan after accounting for 182 billion yuan maturing in June [1] - The central bank's proactive stance in injecting liquidity is considered a contributing factor to the strong performance of A-shares [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent testimony indicated a hawkish tone, suggesting that inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise due to tariffs, which may influence interest rate decisions [2] Consumer Support Measures - A joint announcement from six government departments, including the central bank and the Ministry of Finance, outlined 19 specific measures to support and expand consumption, aiming to enhance the foundational role of consumption in economic development [2] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The easing of tensions in the Middle East is seen as a direct support for risk assets, including stocks, and may indirectly benefit the RMB exchange rate, potentially attracting more foreign investment into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] - The recent increase in trading volume over two consecutive days suggests that the recent rise in A-shares may have better sustainability compared to previous rebounds, with a recommendation for investors to hold stocks for potential gains [2] - If trading volume remains above 1.5 trillion yuan, the rebound in A-shares could evolve into a reversal [2] Earnings Reports - As the half-year reporting period approaches, investors are advised to focus on the operational outlook of listed companies while being cautious of short-term earnings risks [3]

Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3400 points, closing around 3360 points, with trading volume shrinking to around 1 trillion [3] - The support level is strong at 3340-3360 points, which corresponds to the lower boundary of a previous consolidation range and the 60-day moving average [3] - The ChiNext Index nearly breached 2000 points, indicating a growing demand for a rebound due to overselling [3] News Impact - The Middle East conflict, particularly between Iran and Israel, has led to rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil experiencing significant increases, potentially exceeding $100 according to Goldman Sachs [4] - This situation presents a dual impact on A-shares: sectors like oil, gas, and gold may benefit, while export-reliant sectors such as electronics and home appliances could face challenges [4] - Domestic policies are supportive, with the launch of cross-border payment services and various financial opening measures announced by the central bank, which could benefit banks and digital currency sectors [4] Policy Environment - The central bank injected 1.4 trillion in liquidity but did not adjust the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), indicating a focus on targeted support rather than broad stimulus [5] - Policy easing in the real estate sector, such as the removal of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou, may provide some stimulus to building materials and home furnishings, but expectations for a significant sector rally should be tempered [5] - Key sectors like semiconductors and AI computing are receiving clear policy support, presenting opportunities during market pullbacks [5] Capital Flow - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of over 20 billion, while domestic institutional investors withdrew more than 60 billion, indicating a cautious market sentiment [6] - Despite the outflows, sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals attracted investment, with banks and utilities serving as safe havens [6] - The valuation advantage of A-shares remains, suggesting that capital may return once geopolitical tensions ease [6] Strategy for Next Week - A cautious approach is recommended, maintaining a position of around 50% to allow for flexibility [7] - Key focus areas include cross-border payment initiatives, oversold technology sectors, and defensive assets like oil and gold [7] - Monitoring trading volume and sector performance will be crucial for potential adjustments in positions [7]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the market is low despite a strong performance in the major indices, indicating a potential final adjustment phase before a significant upward movement [1] - The A-share market's rebound is closely tied to the performance of the liquor sector, suggesting that a bottoming out in this sector could trigger a rapid index increase [1] - The market's fluctuations are primarily aimed at causing losses for retail investors, highlighting a strategic manipulation of stock prices [1] Group 2 - The central bank plans to conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 16, following a 1 trillion yuan injection at the beginning of the month, indicating a net liquidity injection for June [3] - There is a significant gap of 4 trillion yuan between the increase in deposits and the growth in loans over the first five months, suggesting that without a recovery in the real estate and stock markets, monetary easing may not effectively stimulate the economy [3] - Investors are currently favoring bank deposits over riskier investments like stocks and real estate, as the perceived safety of deposits outweighs potential losses in other sectors [3] Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to rebound significantly, with recent market movements characterized as a strategic manipulation to induce buying opportunities [5] - The market is undergoing a rotation process, where funds are being reallocated among sectors, and a recovery in key industries could lead to a substantial rebound in the index [5] - The current market dynamics suggest that the recent downturns are part of a larger strategy to prepare for a stronger upward movement, with institutional investors playing a crucial role [7]

Group 1 - The market sentiment has been affected by the India-Pakistan conflict, overshadowing positive news such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, leading to uncertainty in capital flows [1] - The recent ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan is seen as a positive development, potentially stabilizing the market and improving risk appetite among large investors [2] - The industrial manufacturing level in the region has significantly improved, positioning the industry in a strong competitive stance globally [2] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to continue its rebound, with banks breaking past previous highs and other sectors having 15-30% room for growth [3] - The market is anticipated to experience sector rotation and a gradual upward trend, with individual stocks showing localized performance [3] - The current market sentiment is pessimistic, which may prevent significant pullbacks, as the index has not formed profit-taking pressure [5]