听说只要券商一发力，市场就能立马点火上涨？ 这说法听起来有点神，但还真有不少专业人士这么看。 和讯投顾的高璐明最近就提到，市场离再次上涨越来越近，就差权重板块比如券商出来带个头了。 外围市场降息预期升温，欧美主要指数反攻，大宗商品反弹，人民币汇率升值，再加上A50震荡反弹和中概股刷新历史高点，这些因素都在给A股营造一个 向好的外部环境。 权重股的作用在这个时候尤其关键。 汇金、险资、外资等大机构手握大量权重股筹码，他们如果想拉动指数，其实并不需要太多散户参与。 这也是为什么 很多人感觉市场和自己无关——指数涨了，但自己的股票没动。 市场内部其实也在悄悄变化。 虽然前几天指数有点分化，还出现了缩量，但做空力量明显减弱，抛压不算大。 5日、10日、20日均线都收敛到了指数下方，技术面上好像就差临门一脚 了。 眼下很多人还在犹豫，但大资金的动作往往领先于散户的感知。 港股的表现更是给了A股一个强烈的信号。 恒生指数和恒生科技指数今年走势挺强，尤其是科技股，像百度、药明康德这些公司涨幅不小。 港股的大涨背 后，有政策预期提振、盈利修复和资金流入等多重因素在推动。 而港股和A股的联动性越来越强，很多行业和公司都是两地上 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：ETF炼金师） 在经历了强劲的8月后，A股市场在进入9月后是否能继续保持反弹势头成为投资者关注的焦点。根据最 新数据，A股在上周整体上涨，沪指周涨幅为0.84%，创业板指的表现尤其抢眼，周涨幅高达7.74%，交 投活跃，日均成交额更是突破了2万亿。 回顾8月，A股整体表现非常强劲，科创50指数更是以28%的涨幅位居第一，创业板指随之上涨 24.13%，上证指数也实现了7.97%的累计涨幅，稳固地站在3800点以上。这样的表现不仅让A股成为全 球各类资产中的佼佼者，也显示了市场对高成长性资产的强烈偏好。 从各行业表现来看，科技板块的强劲推动了市场的整体反弹。在AI算力需求激增和数据中心建设的背 景下，通信设备、半导体、电气设备及汽车零部件等行业涨幅均超过了30%。相对而言，石油天然气、 钢铁等传统行业则表现平平，资金流向开始分化。 首先，国内经济正在逐渐复苏，出口依然强劲，政策面也不断传出利好消息，财政贴息政策的实施及商 务部即将出台的扩大服务消费措施均为市场注入了信心。同时，国产替代加速及重大基建项目的推进， 将进一步提升市场活力。 其次，全球降息预期的上升可能为新兴市场提供了良好的资 ...

Group 1 - The trend of capital inflow into the Chinese stock market is strengthening, with A-shares experiencing a three-day rally after a mid-week adjustment, bringing the Shanghai Composite Index close to a new high [1][3] - In July, foreign capital accelerated its net inflow into the Chinese stock market, totaling $2.7 billion, up from $1.2 billion in June, with passive funds contributing $3.9 billion and active funds experiencing an outflow of $1.2 billion [3] - The margin trading balance of A-shares reached 2,000.259 billion yuan, with the financing balance at 1,986.311 billion yuan, both hitting a ten-year high [3] Group 2 - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July surged to 1.9636 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 71% and a month-on-month growth of over 19% [3] - The stock search index for Baidu has significantly increased, currently maintaining around 14,000 since August [3] - Several brokerages believe that the current market is driven by capital, with the risk premium of major stock indices falling below historical averages, indicating a potential for continued market momentum [3]

Group 1 - The domestic economy showed strong resilience in Q2, and the "anti-involution" policies continue to be implemented, leading to a steady rebound in A-shares in July [1] - In August, uncertainties from overseas tariffs and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut may impact the market, while domestic policies are expected to support the stabilization of the capital market [1] - The A-share mid-year reports will enter a concentrated disclosure period, increasing the importance of performance trading [1] Group 2 - Changcheng Fund's manager, Tan Xiaobing, noted multiple factors influencing the market in August, including unclear US-China trade tensions and the upcoming performance window, suggesting a potential short-term market fluctuation [1] - Tan Xiaobing expressed a relatively optimistic view on sectors such as non-bank financials, military industry, and new consumption that has been consolidating for a while [1] - The innovative drug sector is also viewed positively, although due to significant gains in July and a lack of catalysts in August, this sector may experience short-term fluctuations, with potential catalysts expected after September's major meetings and medical insurance negotiations [1]

Market Performance - A-shares continued to rise significantly this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.03% to 3455.97 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index up 1.41%, the ChiNext Index up 2.07%, the STAR Market 50 Index up 1.73%, and the Northbound 50 Index up 1.38% [1] - Total trading volume in the A-share market reached 16,395 billion yuan, an increase from 14,482 billion yuan the previous day [1] - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as brokerage stocks, shipbuilding, aerospace, software development, internet services, and semiconductors, while sectors like mining, oil and gas, and port shipping showed weaker performance [1] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The central bank conducted a 300 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 118 billion yuan after accounting for 182 billion yuan maturing in June [1] - The central bank's proactive stance in injecting liquidity is considered a contributing factor to the strong performance of A-shares [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent testimony indicated a hawkish tone, suggesting that inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise due to tariffs, which may influence interest rate decisions [2] Consumer Support Measures - A joint announcement from six government departments, including the central bank and the Ministry of Finance, outlined 19 specific measures to support and expand consumption, aiming to enhance the foundational role of consumption in economic development [2] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The easing of tensions in the Middle East is seen as a direct support for risk assets, including stocks, and may indirectly benefit the RMB exchange rate, potentially attracting more foreign investment into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] - The recent increase in trading volume over two consecutive days suggests that the recent rise in A-shares may have better sustainability compared to previous rebounds, with a recommendation for investors to hold stocks for potential gains [2] - If trading volume remains above 1.5 trillion yuan, the rebound in A-shares could evolve into a reversal [2] Earnings Reports - As the half-year reporting period approaches, investors are advised to focus on the operational outlook of listed companies while being cautious of short-term earnings risks [3]

Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3400 points, closing around 3360 points, with trading volume shrinking to around 1 trillion [3] - The support level is strong at 3340-3360 points, which corresponds to the lower boundary of a previous consolidation range and the 60-day moving average [3] - The ChiNext Index nearly breached 2000 points, indicating a growing demand for a rebound due to overselling [3] News Impact - The Middle East conflict, particularly between Iran and Israel, has led to rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil experiencing significant increases, potentially exceeding $100 according to Goldman Sachs [4] - This situation presents a dual impact on A-shares: sectors like oil, gas, and gold may benefit, while export-reliant sectors such as electronics and home appliances could face challenges [4] - Domestic policies are supportive, with the launch of cross-border payment services and various financial opening measures announced by the central bank, which could benefit banks and digital currency sectors [4] Policy Environment - The central bank injected 1.4 trillion in liquidity but did not adjust the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), indicating a focus on targeted support rather than broad stimulus [5] - Policy easing in the real estate sector, such as the removal of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou, may provide some stimulus to building materials and home furnishings, but expectations for a significant sector rally should be tempered [5] - Key sectors like semiconductors and AI computing are receiving clear policy support, presenting opportunities during market pullbacks [5] Capital Flow - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of over 20 billion, while domestic institutional investors withdrew more than 60 billion, indicating a cautious market sentiment [6] - Despite the outflows, sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals attracted investment, with banks and utilities serving as safe havens [6] - The valuation advantage of A-shares remains, suggesting that capital may return once geopolitical tensions ease [6] Strategy for Next Week - A cautious approach is recommended, maintaining a position of around 50% to allow for flexibility [7] - Key focus areas include cross-border payment initiatives, oversold technology sectors, and defensive assets like oil and gold [7] - Monitoring trading volume and sector performance will be crucial for potential adjustments in positions [7]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the market is low despite a strong performance in the major indices, indicating a potential final adjustment phase before a significant upward movement [1] - The A-share market's rebound is closely tied to the performance of the liquor sector, suggesting that a bottoming out in this sector could trigger a rapid index increase [1] - The market's fluctuations are primarily aimed at causing losses for retail investors, highlighting a strategic manipulation of stock prices [1] Group 2 - The central bank plans to conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 16, following a 1 trillion yuan injection at the beginning of the month, indicating a net liquidity injection for June [3] - There is a significant gap of 4 trillion yuan between the increase in deposits and the growth in loans over the first five months, suggesting that without a recovery in the real estate and stock markets, monetary easing may not effectively stimulate the economy [3] - Investors are currently favoring bank deposits over riskier investments like stocks and real estate, as the perceived safety of deposits outweighs potential losses in other sectors [3] Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to rebound significantly, with recent market movements characterized as a strategic manipulation to induce buying opportunities [5] - The market is undergoing a rotation process, where funds are being reallocated among sectors, and a recovery in key industries could lead to a substantial rebound in the index [5] - The current market dynamics suggest that the recent downturns are part of a larger strategy to prepare for a stronger upward movement, with institutional investors playing a crucial role [7]

Group 1 - The market sentiment has been affected by the India-Pakistan conflict, overshadowing positive news such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, leading to uncertainty in capital flows [1] - The recent ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan is seen as a positive development, potentially stabilizing the market and improving risk appetite among large investors [2] - The industrial manufacturing level in the region has significantly improved, positioning the industry in a strong competitive stance globally [2] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to continue its rebound, with banks breaking past previous highs and other sectors having 15-30% room for growth [3] - The market is anticipated to experience sector rotation and a gradual upward trend, with individual stocks showing localized performance [3] - The current market sentiment is pessimistic, which may prevent significant pullbacks, as the index has not formed profit-taking pressure [5]