每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 8月25日，A股市场主要指数普遍上涨。成交额放量至3.18万亿元，创历史第二高，为连续9个交易 日超2万亿元。8月26日早盘，A股集体低开后涨跌分化，表征核心龙头资产的MSCI中国A50互联互通指 数小幅回调，现跌约0.5%，成分股牧原股份、万华化学等领涨。相关ETF方面，A50ETF（159601）昨 日获资金净流入1016万元。 东吴证券认为，企业盈利复苏和弱美元的叙事均将在9月进入关键的验证窗口期。叙事短期可能有 波折，但中期确定性较强，因此我们对市场依然持乐观态度，A股慢牛趋势不改。市场依然会围绕产业 趋势强劲的板块进行交易，主线方向"强者恒强"。这一方面是因为经济新旧动能切换时期，景气有明显 分化；另一方面从增量资金来看，散户入市仍处于初步阶段，机构资金依然有较强的定价能力、主导主 线趋势行情。而随着行情演绎， ...

投资要点 市场回顾：本周中国股市继续领涨全球，深证成指、上证指数分别上涨4.6%、3.5%，沪指突破十年新高站上3800点。资金面，A股成交额进一步放量，两 融余额持续增加并突破2.1万亿元，融资买入额占全A成交比突破11%，创下2020年2月以来新高，显示市场风险偏好进一步提升。行业方面，半导体、 CPO、机器人等成长板块延续强势，科创50指数大涨13.31%。外汇方面，周五鲍威尔讲话后各期限美债收益率下行，美元指数下挫，离岸人民币兑美元 汇率升值。 市场展望：多路增量资金入市，A股步入"慢牛"新周期。本轮A股牛市行情从"924"演绎至今，增量资金来源广泛：一是险资、养老金等中长期资金，在过 去三年多来持续增持A股；二是融资资金和私募基金交易持续活跃，外资对A股关注度也开始升温；三是居民"存款搬家"迹象显现但仍处于早期阶段，资 产荒下，居民资金有望通过ETF、直接持股、公募基金等渠道持续入市，成为"慢牛"得以延展的关键动力。 以下几个方面是近期市场关注的重点： 1）海外货币政策方面，鲍威尔最新讲话释放鸽派信号，9月降息预期升温。8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会讲话，指出"鉴于政策仍处 于限制 ...

Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to continue its slow bull trend due to strong fundamentals, loose policies, and liquidity conditions[6] - Since 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index's PE percentile has broken above 60% seven times, with six instances leading to further increases, averaging 2-4 months of upward movement[6][8] Economic Indicators - July's export growth rate was 7.2%, exceeding expectations, supported by a low base from the previous year[11] - The manufacturing PMI has shown improvements in five of the six instances where the market continued to rise after breaking the 60% PE threshold[6][12] Policy Environment - Recent policies aimed at promoting the healthy development of the private economy and consumer spending are being implemented, including personal consumption loan subsidies[15][19] - The geopolitical risk index has significantly decreased, indicating a more stable external environment for the market[16] Industry Focus - Short-term focus should be on growth and recovery sectors, particularly undervalued industries in technology, cyclical sectors, and large financials[26] - High-growth sectors currently include artificial intelligence, robotics, and consumer electronics, while undervalued sectors include transportation, coal, and petrochemicals[26][27] Investment Recommendations - It is advised to continue accumulating positions in sectors with upward policy and industry trends, such as robotics, electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals[39] - The report suggests a balanced allocation towards sectors with improving expectations, including new energy, non-ferrous metals, and retail[39]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者帅可聪 北京报道 8月，在北京工作的90后投资者小李（化名）加仓了A股。自从上个月买入的一只生育概念股收获了超 过20%的收益，她便信心满满："现在存款利息太低了，A股能赚钱的机会不多，来了当然要抓住。" 单日成交额连破2万亿元，近期A股行情确实堪称火爆。8月14日，上证指数创下三年多来高位，相较4 月低点累计涨幅超20%。8月15日A股三大指数持续上涨，沪指盘中突破3700点。截至收盘，上证指数 涨0.83%报3696.77点，深证成指涨1.6%，创业板指涨2.14%。过去大约4个月时间，A股市值已累计增长 逾18万亿元。若能继续上攻突破2021年高点3731.69点，上证指数将创下2016年以来的十年新高。 "本轮A股市场的强势行情，是流动性宽松与政策预期共振的结果。"知名经济学家、国研新经济研究院 创始院长朱克力在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，一方面，市场资金环境持续宽松，全球主要经济 体进入降息周期，叠加国内货币政策的精准滴灌，促使大量资金流入资本市场，形成估值修复的底层支 撑；另一方面，政策端对实体经济的扶持力度不断加码，特别是在反内卷战略下，制造业产 ...

8月过半，上证指数突破去年10月8日高点，且延续强势。 对此，长城基金表示，市场持续上攻有多方面原因：首先，增量资金驱动是关键，保险、私募等机构或 是核心增量。其次是外部风险的缓释和政策端的利好，整体环境对于权益资产较为友好。支持促消费、 扩内需方面，近日《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》发布之后，国有大行陆续跟进，对个人消费 贷款财政贴息工作进行公告。 永赢基金认为，市场进入热度提升期，资金面持续形成正循环，驱动指数再上台阶。7月以来，"反内 卷"、雅下水电站等经济远景叙事的政策给市场带来供需两端的改善预期，近期两融、游资等高风险偏 好资金加速入市，与公募、险资、外资等机构投资者形成共振，市场增量资金不断形成合力，驱动指数 上涨。 景顺长城投研团队指出，7月以来，A股市场明显走强，背后主要由流动性驱动，增量资金加速流入市 场。一方面，市场筹码结构改善，赚钱效应开始积累，个人投资者入市意愿增加，融资余额快速上升并 突破2万亿元；另一方面，此前机构仓位普遍偏低，近期普遍出现净流入。 A股"慢牛"可期 【导读】A股持续上攻，多家基金公司解读 "牛味儿"又回来了！ 8月15日，A股三大指数延续强势表现，沪指盘中站 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a "slow bull" market in A-shares, contrasting it with previous rapid bull markets and highlighting the importance of understanding the current market dynamics for investment strategies [2][5][42]. Group 1: Characteristics of the "Slow Bull" Market - The current A-share market is showing signs of a "slow bull" similar to the U.S. market, characterized by steady growth rather than rapid spikes [6][10]. - Key elements of a "slow bull" include strong economic fundamentals, high dividends, and loose market liquidity, which are evident in the current A-share environment [7][8][11]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - As of mid-2025, China's GDP growth rate reached 5.3%, exceeding the initial target of 5%, with a notable 9.08% year-on-year revenue growth and a 16.87% increase in net profit among A-share companies [11][12]. - The trend of increasing dividends is also present, with A-share companies distributing 2.4 trillion yuan in dividends in 2024, a 9% increase year-on-year [13]. Group 3: Market Liquidity - The liquidity in the A-share market is being bolstered by institutional and individual investors, with significant policy support aimed at increasing long-term capital inflow [14][16]. - A notable increase in new A-share accounts, reaching 1.9636 million in July 2025, indicates growing retail investor participation [16]. Group 4: Impact of Real Estate Market - The decline of major real estate companies, such as China Evergrande, is shifting capital flows from real estate to the stock market, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares [20][21]. - The overall sales of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 13.3% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a weakening real estate sector [20]. Group 5: Policy Support and Investor Confidence - Regulatory measures, including interest rate cuts and reduced IPO activity, have been implemented to support the A-share market, fostering investor confidence [28][30]. - The tightening of IPO policies has been perceived positively by investors, contributing to a sense of security in the market [32][34]. Group 6: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the positive indicators, a significant portion of capital remains cautious, with 63.8% of residents still favoring savings over investments [37]. - Analysts generally agree on the existence of a "slow bull" market, with differing opinions on the pace and main drivers of growth, particularly in technology and manufacturing sectors [42][44].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing the "inclusiveness" of the capital market, which is not synonymous with large-scale IPO expansions but rather structural expansions that align with China's economic transformation and improve the A-share index's growth potential [1][3][4]. Group 1: Definition of Inclusiveness - "Inclusiveness" refers to two main aspects: allowing high-potential tech companies that may not be immediately profitable to list, and facilitating the return of strong overseas companies to the A-share market [3][4]. - The regulatory stance indicates that enhancing inclusiveness does not mean a large-scale expansion of IPOs, but rather a structural expansion that focuses on improving the quality and composition of listed companies [3][4]. Group 2: Economic and Structural Context - The article highlights the need for a financial system that supports the high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing by 2027, as stated in a recent guideline from the central bank and seven ministries [5]. - It points out that while the total number of listed companies is substantial, the structure remains unbalanced, with a lack of high-tech companies among the top market capitalizations, which limits the index's growth potential [5][6]. Group 3: IPO Trends and Market Sentiment - The regulatory comments serve as a reassurance to the market that while IPOs will increase in pace, there will not be a large-scale expansion, as evidenced by the financing scale in the first seven months of the year showing growth compared to the previous year [4][11]. - Historical data indicates that A-share IPOs have experienced tightening periods, which have often preceded bull markets, suggesting that a cautious approach to IPOs can be beneficial for market strength [10][11]. Group 4: Future Directions - The focus for future IPO expansions will be on sectors that contribute to the transformation of China's economic structure and on bringing back competitive overseas companies to enhance the A-share index's growth potential [5][6]. - Achieving a sustainable bull market requires a balanced approach to IPOs, refinancing, strict delisting policies, and protections for minority shareholders, indicating a long-term commitment to market reforms [11].

2、央行等七部门印发 《关于金融支持 新型工业化 的指导意见》。后市这三大方向值得关注！ 3、 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1400 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股三大指数表现强势，沪指涨近1%，重回3600点，有超3900只个股上涨。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/8/5，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额1.6万亿，盘面上，通信、消费电子、银行、保险、券商等板块领涨，中药板块回调。 分析人士认为， 市场"慢牛"形态有望延续，突破3674点指日可待，市场热点有望继续扩散，随着半年报陆续披露，接下来也要重视业绩主线。 摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数表现强势，集体收涨，沪指涨近1%，重回3600点，牛市确认了？ A股重回3600点，央行发声 在经历了3天的调整后，今天，A股重回3600点，10倍股上纬新材复牌后再度涨停，科技、金融等板块全面开花。盘后，央行等七部门印发《关于金融支持 新型工业化的指导意见》也释放了积极信号。 1、央行等七部门释放重磅信号。 央行等七部门联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the 3500-point mark in the A-share market, highlighting the mixed emotions of excitement and anxiety among investors as the index approaches this historical level [2][4][5]. Market Sentiment - The A-share market has experienced prolonged periods below the 3500-point mark, leading many investors to doubt the possibility of a sustained bull market [4][5]. - The historical context of the A-share market includes two notable bull markets in 2007 and 2015, contrasting with the long periods of stagnation [2][4]. Understanding Market Dynamics - The article critiques the traditional view of "bulls" and "bears," suggesting that true market dynamics are influenced more by capital flow than by emotional trading behaviors [6][9]. - A key perspective presented is that actions such as large shareholder sell-offs or corporate financing that withdraw capital from the market are the real "bears" [8][9]. Capital Flow Analysis - The A-share market has historically been a "financing market," where the capital raised through financing has often exceeded the dividends paid to shareholders, leading to a net outflow of funds [12][14]. - Data shows that in 2016, financing amounts reached nearly 1 trillion, indicating significant capital withdrawal from the market [12]. Recent Trends in Dividends and Financing - Recent years have seen a shift where dividends paid to shareholders are beginning to exceed financing activities, with the dividend payout ratio increasing from around 30% to over 45% [21][24]. - This trend is viewed as a positive development for the market's stability and long-term growth potential [22][24]. Future Market Outlook - The article posits that for a sustained bull market ("slow bull") to materialize, the inflow of capital through dividends must consistently surpass the outflow from financing [21][24]. - The establishment of a regular and large-scale share buyback mechanism is deemed crucial for reinforcing market stability and supporting long-term growth [24]. Conclusion on Market Stability - The current market environment, characterized by a trend of dividends exceeding financing, is seen as a foundational change that could lead to a more stable market, despite the potential for short-term volatility [25].

Weekly Insights - The report highlights an increase in market disturbances due to escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran, leading to heightened concerns over oil prices and inflation risks. However, the direct impact on China is considered limited, with the main concern being the risk of significant oil price increases. Historically, Middle Eastern conflicts have acted as catalysts for oil price fluctuations, but their effects tend to be short-lived due to the global economy's inability to sustain high oil prices for extended periods. Overall, the emotional impact of these conflicts on the market is greater than the actual economic implications [4][7]. - The State Council's meeting on June 13 emphasized stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, outlining four key policy directions: stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks. This is expected to lead to timely responses from local governments and facilitate a quicker adjustment in the real estate cycle, contributing to marginal improvements in economic performance [4][7]. Market Trends - Despite recent adjustments, the overall market trend remains a broad range-bound movement. The core factors driving the market are stable and improving fundamental expectations, with hopes for gradual policy and external improvements. The report anticipates a structural bull market to emerge in the third quarter, with 3,400 points identified as a significant resistance level. The transition from quantitative to qualitative changes in A-shares is underway, indicating a revaluation of Chinese assets from a global investment perspective [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high economic activity, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks, which are expected to continue their upward trajectory. While there may be short-term adjustments in crowded small-cap stocks, the likelihood of a major cyclical downturn is low. The report remains optimistic about the performance of large-cap companies following the trends of small-cap stocks. Key sectors to watch include innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer trends, with an emphasis on undervalued, high-dividend stocks as long-term investment opportunities in a declining interest rate environment [6][9]. Market Data - The report notes a general upward trend in the market, with small-cap stocks performing particularly well. The weekly performance of major indices shows positive returns, with the ChiNext Index leading at 2.32%, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index at 1.42% and the Shanghai Composite Index at 1.13% [10][12]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector has outperformed other industries this week, indicating strong investor interest in this area [13]. - Market turnover rates have increased, suggesting a rise in trading activity, while margin financing balances have shown a decline, reflecting reduced market participation [15][17]. Valuation Insights - The overall valuation levels in the market remain reasonable, with the exception of the Sci-Tech 50 Index, which has seen a notable increase. The report provides a detailed breakdown of sector valuations, highlighting significant variations across different industries [19][21]. - For instance, the electronics sector has a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 58.6, while the real estate sector shows a negative P/E of -6.4, indicating substantial differences in market sentiment and performance expectations across sectors [21][22].