证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 2026，理财重迎"净值化"的变局 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之十五 [Table_Summary] ►2025 年，净值平滑的终年 回眸 2025，理财全年运行呈现出三个核心特征： 特征 1：净值波动成为常态，回撤上限还可控。随着估值整改推 进，理财净值波动的频率和幅度均明显抬升。不过整改也伴随着浮盈 释放，起到了净值平滑的作用。尤其是在市场大幅调整的背景下，借 助浮盈支撑，理财基本将产品回撤上限控制在 10bp 以内。 特征 2：理财收益下破 2.0，实际回报与负债成本之间的矛盾日 益突出。25 年，全市场理财产品平均收益率进一步下滑，首次跌破 2.0%至 1.98%，前一年末为 2.65%。而在负债端，受制于渠道业绩 压力制约，理财的业绩基准下调幅度渐缓，这也使得理财产品实际业 绩与业绩基准下限之间的安全垫逐步压缩，部分产品已出现倒挂。 特征 3：存量浮盈托底&存款搬家，规模创历史新高。在整体业 绩持续走低的背景下，2025 年理财规模实现"逆势"扩张，全年累计增 ...

通达集团(00698)发布公告，于2025年12月30日及2026年2月12日，本公司间接非全资附属公司通达创智 （001368）(厦门)及通达创智(石狮)利用其闲置资金认购若干理财产品，包括认购(i)第一项兴业银行理 财产品、第二项兴业银行理财产品、第三项兴业银行理财产品及第四项兴业银行理财产品，认购金额分 别为人民币1400万元、人民币1800万元、人民币4500万元及人民币1700万元。 ...

深圳水贝黄金市场本是全国最大集散地，杰我睿珠宝公司从2014年起步，专注黄金原料批发回收。起初 业务简单，上游买金下游卖料，积累点口碑。 2025年国际金价涨势凶猛，公司顺势推线上小程序，卖点是低工费回收和预定价交易。用户充值买金条 或寄料换钱，图个方便。 平台注册用户蹿到15万，许多人把养老钱教育金扔进去，觉得水贝老字号靠谱。张志腾作为老板，常在 小红书直播，讲金价走势，秀金链子，拉人入群。 实际操作中，资金直奔私人账户，没进监管池子。 业务转向高杠杆对赌，用户下单买涨买空，平台自设盘口，没真实库存垫底。40倍杠杆一玩，风险放 大，用户赢了平台赔，赔多了就扛不住。 1月25日，平台甩出兑付方案，本金2折一笔付清，或4折分12期，寄售金银不算在内。用户火大，拒签 叫不公。次日，上百人从各地冲到水贝金座大厦，围门店要钱。 孕妇情绪崩，坐地哭喊70万没了，子女455万泡汤。警方拉警戒线，维持秩序，人群分流到罗湖体育 馆。馆内冲突起，推挤伤人。 1月27日，更多受害者赶来，维权升级。警方隔离人群，投资者递呈报书，初步统计未结算2.46亿，但 整体传超百亿。张志腾直播认现金短缺，没提全额赔。 2025年下半年，白银金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices has unexpectedly increased residents' enthusiasm for gold investment products, despite concerns about volatility and risk management within financial institutions [3][5][8]. Group 1: Market Reaction to Gold Price Drop - Following the historic drop in gold prices on January 30, there has been a surge in demand for gold investment products among residents [3][5]. - Financial institutions are witnessing a notable increase in inquiries about gold investment products, with many clients shifting from physical gold purchases to financial products due to supply shortages [8][9]. - Statistics indicate that the average annualized return of "gold+" investment products is approximately 4.08%, significantly higher than the 2.24% return of traditional fixed-income products [8]. Group 2: Internal Conflicts in Financial Institutions - There is a conflict between revenue-driven investment departments and risk-averse risk control departments regarding gold investments, particularly after the recent price volatility [7][14]. - Risk control departments have expressed concerns that the recent price drop categorizes gold as a high-volatility asset, which may not align with the stability requirements for investment products [5][14]. - Despite the push for gold investment, risk control departments remain cautious, citing the potential for significant losses if gold prices experience further drastic declines [12][13]. Group 3: Strategies for Gold Investment Products - Some financial institutions are exploring ways to incorporate gold into their investment products while managing associated risks, such as limiting gold's allocation to 10% of the total investment [12][15]. - There are proposals to utilize structured products and options to mitigate risks associated with gold price fluctuations, aiming for stable returns in a volatile market [12][15]. - Certain investment departments are accelerating the development of gold investment products, planning to increase the allocation of options to manage risks effectively [15].

当前金融市场普遍关注2026年大量到期定期存款的流向。在3年期定期存款利率走低至 1.25%，甚至低于回购利率的历史罕见背景下，资金寻找替代投向的需求强烈，预计2026年 大概率会出现定期存款向理财转化的趋势。 2026年2月初，张晴有一笔40万元的3年期存款到期。 "现在存款利息太低了。"她决定不再全部续存。近期，张晴前往多家银行网点咨询能否买到年化收益率 3%、具备"保本"属性的固收类理财产品。 "3%是我的底线。收益率低于3%，我不会考虑购买相关理财产品。"张晴说。 像张晴这样为到期定存寻找可靠去处的储户还有很多。国信证券基于六大行2025年中报数据估计，2026 年到期的定期存款规模约为57万亿元，且主要到期时段集中在年初。 在低利率环境下，这些储户的决策不仅关乎消费与投资的动态，更深度影响着国内财富市场的格局演 变。 信银理财拟任总裁贺晋指出，当前金融市场普遍关注2026年大量到期定期存款的流向。在3年期定期存 款利率走低至1.25%，甚至低于回购利率的历史罕见背景下，资金寻找替代投向的需求强烈，预计2026 年大概率会出现定期存款向理财转化的趋势。 一场围绕居民存款的"保卫战"正在打响，国有大行和 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The scale of wealth management products reached 33.3 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year - end year - on - year growth rate of 11.2%, maintaining double - digit high - speed growth and breaking through 30 trillion yuan for the first time in recent years. Although the average yield in the second half of 2025 decreased to 1.98%, it still had an advantage over other products, which attracted funds to flow in and promoted the growth of the scale [1][9]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Deposit Allocation - Since the wealth management redemption wave in Q4 2022, wealth management has been increasing cash and deposit allocation to stabilize net value. By the end of 2025, the proportion of cash and deposits in wealth management assets reached 28.2%, 3.4 percentage points higher than mid - year. In the second half of 2025, 1.88 trillion yuan of cash and deposits were added, accounting for 69.9% of the overall asset scale increase in the second half of the year [2][10]. Equity Asset Allocation - In 2025, wealth management did not directly increase equity assets. The proportion of equity assets decreased from 2.4% in mid - year to 1.9% at the end of the year. However, it may have increased the scale of fixed - income + assets through public funds. The proportion of public funds in wealth management assets increased from 4.2% in mid - year to 5.1% at the end of the year, with a net increase of 0.43 trillion yuan [3][11]. Bond Allocation - Wealth management continued to reduce bond holdings, especially interest - rate bonds, while slightly increasing credit bonds. By the end of 2025, the proportion of bonds and certificates of deposit in total assets was 51.9%, 3.7 percentage points lower than mid - year. In the second half of 2025, 0.09 trillion yuan of interest - rate bonds and 0.2 trillion yuan of certificates of deposit were reduced, while 0.48 trillion yuan of credit bonds were added [4][14]. Group 4: Product Structure - In the second half of 2025, cash - management products and closed - end products grew significantly. The scale of closed - end products increased by 0.85 trillion yuan, and the scale of cash - management products increased by 0.64 trillion yuan to 7.04 trillion yuan. The proportion of cash - management and closed - end products increased by 0.7 and 1.1 percentage points respectively in the second half of the year. The proportion of closed - end products with a term of more than one year in all closed - end products increased by 3.72 percentage points compared with the beginning of the year [20]. Group 5: Outlook for 2026 Challenges - Wealth management net value fluctuations may increase due to restricted valuation smoothing methods and intensified bond market volatility transmission. The yield may further decline as underlying asset bond yields fall and previously allocated high - yield assets mature. High - interest assets are becoming scarcer, and wealth management may rely more on trading and entrusted investment for returns [5][25]. Opportunities - Deposit migration is conducive to the growth of wealth management scale as residents' deposits may flow into relatively low - risk and low - volatility wealth management products. Developing equity - linked products can help increase wealth management yields as the stock market has been strong since the second half of 2025 [6][28].

Multi-Strategy Performance - A-share equity strategies and commodity CTA strategies are currently dominant, with A-share equity strategies showing continued opportunities for allocation[7] - The index enhancement strategy has seen a rebound, with the median excess return for public funds turning positive[10] - Private CTA strategies remain strong, benefiting from trends in precious metals like gold and silver, as well as increased volatility in non-ferrous metals[29] Bank Wealth Management Performance - Overall, bank wealth management products have positive returns, with significant gains in commodity and equity products, but overall scale has not expanded[32] - Cash management products increased by 0.02%, while fixed income products rose by 0.06%, and mixed products saw a 0.24% increase, indicating strong performance relative to historical data[33] - The scale of cash management products decreased by 0.09%, and fixed income products saw a reduction of 0.04%, reflecting a general trend of declining scale across most categories[39] Risk Considerations - Extreme risk events, such as US-China relations and unexpected global geopolitical events, could disrupt historical statistical patterns[4] - The risk of quantitative indicators failing, as historical data may not effectively guide future performance, is a concern[4]

2026.01. 20 本文字数：2619，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 张丽华 年关将至。一边是自掏腰包勉强维系登录权限，一边是仅剩半个月的存续窗口期。承载着浙江华侨系 40亿元非法集资案关键证据的"侨行天下APP"，正站在彻底关停的悬崖边。半个月后若仍无法解决 后台登录账号失效问题，动态证据可能灭失。 2024年9月，浙江华侨系黄金理财产品暴雷，华侨系大卖黄金理财产品、集纳投资者资金的工具 ——"侨行天下 APP"，由数千名投资者自掏腰包 "续命"已有一年多时间。 近日，有投资者代表告诉第一财经记者，侨行天下APP的后台登录账号，因对应的手机号欠费，再 次面临关停：若2月6日前无有效账户登录后台，云商将关停租赁服务。能够完整呈现的交易流程、 参与方痕迹等动态核心证据或将永久灭失，直接影响后续民事诉讼与责任认定的走向。 这场围绕APP存废的博弈，不仅关乎数千投资者的挽损希望，更折射出数字时代电子证据保全的核 心命题——刑事案件办理需同步考量民事维权证据需求，而电子程序的完整留存，正是 "两高一 部"相关规定的明确要求。 投资者两次凑钱给APP"续命"，新危机又接踵而至 "现在能登录都是大家一块一块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is a significant national strategy aimed at enhancing regional integration and competitiveness, with a focus on infrastructure connectivity, regulatory alignment, and community engagement among the three regions [2][4]. Group 1: Infrastructure Development - By the end of 2025, the Greater Bay Area's railway operating mileage will exceed 2,800 kilometers, and urban rail transit will surpass 1,500 kilometers, facilitating a "one-hour living circle" [32]. - The traffic flow through five cross-river and cross-sea passages in the Pearl River Delta reached 137 million vehicle trips from January to October 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.52% [23]. - The Hong Kong International Airport's second terminal expansion and the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport's T3 terminal and fifth runway were operational by October 2025, with all three major airports in the region exceeding an annual passenger throughput of 50 million by December 2025 [28][29]. Group 2: Economic and Cultural Integration - The 15th National Games and the Special Olympics will be held in Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao in late 2025, marking the first large-scale joint sports event among the three regions, showcasing deepened collaboration [5][6]. - The total sales of licensed merchandise for the 15th National Games reached 680 million yuan, with the mascots becoming a cultural phenomenon [21]. - Over 558 million mainland tourists visited Hong Kong and Macao in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, indicating a growing cultural and economic exchange [47]. Group 3: Innovation and Talent Development - The innovation cluster of Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and Guangzhou ranked first globally in innovation index in 2025, with R&D intensity surpassing 4.5% and strategic emerging industries accounting for over 25% of GDP [40]. - By the end of 2025, there were 35 joint laboratories established in the Greater Bay Area, enhancing collaboration in scientific research and innovation [42]. - The number of high-level talents in the region has increased significantly, with over 30% of the nation's high-level talent concentrated in this area [40].

Core Insights - In 2025, deposit rates are expected to enter the "0% range," while gold prices are reaching new highs, indicating a significant shift in public investment awareness [1][8] - Ant Group and Xiaohongshu conducted a keyword voting event, revealing five major financial keywords: "Awakening of Gold Bloodline," "New Three Golds," "Deposit Migration," "A-shares Slow Bull," and "AI Narrative Finance," with gold-related terms dominating the list [1][8] Group 1: Gold Investment Trends - The "Awakening of Gold Bloodline" emerged as the most voted keyword, reflecting a growing interest among younger generations in gold investments, including gold funds and physical gold [3][10] - As of early October, over 8.9 million users on Ant Group's platform have initiated gold ETF fund investments, with a significant portion being post-95s [4][11] - The price of gold has seen an increase of nearly 60% throughout the year, further driving interest in gold as a viable investment option [3][10] Group 2: Shift in Savings and Investment Behavior - The trend of "Deposit Migration" indicates a shift of funds from traditional savings to financial assets like gold, funds, and stocks, as evidenced by a decrease of 1.34 trillion yuan in household deposits and an increase of 1.85 trillion yuan in non-bank financial institution deposits in October [3][10] - The concept of "New Three Golds," which includes money market funds, bond funds, and gold funds, is becoming popular among young investors, allowing for a balanced approach to asset management [6][13] - By the end of November 2025, over 21 million users had adopted the "New Three Golds" strategy, with nearly half being young investors [6][13] Group 3: Evolving Wealth Management Practices - The shift towards "New Three Golds" signifies a more rational and diversified approach to wealth management among the younger generation, moving from passive savings to active asset allocation [7][14] - Investors are increasingly focusing on building balanced portfolios rather than chasing single investment hotspots, indicating a maturation in investment strategies [7][14] - The diversification strategy has shown positive results, with investors who adjusted their bond fund allocations to include "fixed income plus" products experiencing a 12.8% increase in perceived returns [6][13]