FFF START FREE 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/25 す77 煤期 河北折盘 西北折盘 CFR东南 量商行营 江苏现货 CFR中国 华南现货 进口利润| 主力基差 型商标准面 E lif E E 2210 2398 2315 2443 323 2205 263 -3 2220 2215 2395 2315 263 323 -7 2438 2213 2390 2213 2315 2438 263 323 -15 2210 2205 2390 2315 2438 259 321 -0 2243 2255 2400 2315 2468 图记 33 50 10 30 O 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MTO利润卡住了上限，除非其余下游涨价，目前看来偏空或卖看涨 期权较合适。 MA现货价格走势 MA基差 ● 华东出罐:中间价 ● 西北/陕西:中间价 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 ● 山东:中间价 ● MA进口折人民币 ● 2021 ● 2022 ● ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, due to the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance, with some plants like Xingxing and Shenghong having shutdown plans. It's difficult for methanol prices to go up or down as MTO profit caps the upside. A bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. - For plastics, the market is oscillating, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply growth is expected to be neutral, while the LL supply - demand balance sheet still faces pressure [2]. - For PP, the market is stable, with a weak basis. Supply - side temporary maintenance plans are increasing. PP inventory is currently neutral, and the 05 and subsequent supply - demand balance is expected to be slightly on the high side, requiring PDH maintenance or continued exports to improve [3]. - For PVC, the basis improves slightly. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers. In the long - term, the domestic and foreign real - estate new - construction demand is still weak, and the PVC outlook is poor [5]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regions' methanol had different changes, such as the Jiangsu spot price dropping from 2208 to 2213, and the Northwest discounted price rising from 2405 to 2438. The import profit,主力基差, and 盘面MTO利润 also changed accordingly [2]. - **Market Situation**: The Iran conflict continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance, and some plants have shutdown or production - reduction plans. It's difficult for methanol prices to move up or down, and a bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. Plastics - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 690. The prices of various plastic products in different regions changed, such as the North China LL price dropping from 6630 to 6540. The import profit,主力期货 price, and basis also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Market Situation**: The market oscillates, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The oil - based and coal - based profits turn worse. The upstream coal - chemical industry and two - oil companies are destocking, while the social inventory accumulates this week. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply growth is expected to be neutral, with the LL supply - demand balance sheet still under pressure [2]. PP - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6400, and the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 785. The prices of various PP products in different regions changed, such as the East China PP price dropping from 6490 to 6540. The export profit,主力期货 price, and basis also had corresponding changes [3]. - **Market Situation**: The market is stable, with a weak basis. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume decreases slightly. The upstream oil - based profit is stable, and the PDH comprehensive profit improves. The downstream BOPP and plastic - weaving profits improve. The supply - side temporary maintenance plans increase, and the overall PP inventory is neutral. The 05 and subsequent supply - demand balance is expected to be slightly on the high side [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2550, and the Shandong caustic soda price changed from 622 to 622. The prices of various PVC products in different regions changed, such as the calcium - carbide - based East China price dropping from 4810 to 4780. The export profit and basis also had corresponding changes [4][5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis improves slightly. The ethylene - based FOB and calcium - carbide - based FOB prices need further observation. The coal and semi - coke prices are stable, and the semi - coke and calcium carbide profits are poor. The upstream starts up at a rate of 79.7%, and the downstream demand is stable. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers, and in the long - term, the real - estate new - construction demand is still weak [5].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/11 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/02/0 4 801 2250 2235 2380 - 2300 2398 268 323 -29 -40 - 2026/02/0 5 801 2205 2215 2380 - 2300 2398 264 323 -25 -35 - 2026/02/0 6 801 2208 2210 2375 - 2300 2405 262 323 -9 -35 - 2026/02/0 9 801 2210 2218 2395 - 2300 2470 262 323 -7 -30 - 2026/02/1 0 801 2210 2205 2398 - 2315 2443 - - - -40 - 日度变化 0 0 -13 3 - 15 -27 - - - -10 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Methanol Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the price of动力煤期货 remained stable at 801. The江苏现货 price increased from 2225 to 2210, the华南现货 price increased from 2223 to 2218, and the鲁南折盘面 price increased from 2385 to 2395. The西北折盘面 price increased from 2385 to 2470. The进口利润 improved from -36 to -25, and the主力基差 improved from -45 to -30 [2]. Core View - The conflict in Iran continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance, with Xingxing shutting down, Shenghong shutting down in February, and Luxi shutting down next week. Others also have plans to reduce production, waiting to restart after the situation in Iran normalizes. Currently, it is difficult for methanol prices to go up or down. The MTO profit caps the upper limit, and unless other downstream products increase in price, a bearish outlook or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. Group 3: Plastic Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the东北亚乙烯 price decreased from 695 to 690. The华北LL price decreased from 6680 to 6570, the华东LL price remained at 6875, and the华东LD price decreased from 8875 to 8650. The LL进口利润 decreased from 91 to -91, and the主力期货 price decreased from 6865 to 6721. The两油库存 decreased from 51 to 43, and the仓单 remained at 9428 [2]. Core View - The futures market is oscillating, the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. The L01 basis in North China is -180, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period; in East China, it is -100, a decrease of 30. The regional price difference in North China is oscillating, with North China - East China at -80, a decrease of 30; South China - East China at 50, an increase of 50. Crude oil is oscillating, the oil - based profit is deteriorating, and the coal - based profit is also deteriorating. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745, the theoretical LL import price is 63, the HD - LLD price difference is 110, a decrease of 40, and the LD - LL price difference is 2210, an increase of 210. Upstream coal chemical industry is destocking, and the two major oil companies are destocking. Social inventory has increased this week, with HD inventory at a low level, LD inventory increasing, and LL inventory slightly higher than normal. From the supply side, the growth rate of standard product supply is high. The linear production schedule has increased month - on - month, there were few maintenance in January, and the full - density production has recovered. In the future, supply will recover. According to the balance sheet, the overall PE supply growth rate for 05 is neutral, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is still under relatively high pressure [2]. Group 4: PP Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the山东丙烯 price remained at 6400, the东北亚丙烯 price remained at 785. The华东PP price increased from 6610 to 6530, the华北PP price decreased from 6638 to 6588, and the山东粉料 price decreased from 6520 to 6500. The PP美金 price decreased from 825 to 835, and the出口利润 improved from -57 to -37. The主力期货 price decreased from 6730 to 6630, and the基差 remained at -140. The两油库存 decreased from 51 to 42, and the仓单 decreased from 17223 to 17195 [3]. Core View - The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The basis in East China is -200, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous period. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225, with the export volume slightly decreasing month - on - month. The domestic regional price difference shows North China - East China at -70, an increase of 35; South China - East China at 100, a decrease of 30. In terms of upstream profits, the oil - based profit is stable, the PDH comprehensive profit is -970, an increase of 230, and the PHD operating rate is stable this week. The profits of downstream BOPP and plastic weaving have improved. The number of temporary maintenance plans on the supply side has increased, and the supply in January is flat month - on - month. Downstream purchases slightly at low prices during the festival. Upstream, the two major oil companies are destocking, the coal chemical industry is increasing inventory, and social inventory is increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is neutral. According to the balance sheet, the outlook for 05 and the following periods is slightly on the high side, and PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed for improvement [3]. Group 5: PVC Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the西北电石 price remained at 2550, the山东烧碱 price decreased from 622 to 617. The电石法 - 华东 price increased from 4860 to 4830, and the进口美金价 remained at 700. The出口利润 decreased from 268 to 186, and the基差 remained at -220 [4][5]. Core View - The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price of ethylene - based PVC is 575, and that of calcium carbide - based PVC is 570, and the sustainability needs further observation. The coal price is 600, unchanged, and the semi - coke price is 820, unchanged. The semi - coke profit is poor, and the calcium carbide profit is also poor. The Shandong spot ex - factory price is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali is around -600. The ethylene - calcium carbide price is stable. Upstream, the operating rate this week is 79.7%, an increase of 1.1%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. The upstream factory inventory is 30.9, an increase of 0.4w, the PVC social inventory is 111.4w, an increase of 5w, with 106w in East China, an increase of 5w, and 5.4w in South China, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still slightly high, and the export volume is flat month - on - month. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, the seasonal operating rate is recovering, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, the export volume this year is relatively large, and the sustainability of future exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets is still weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for PVC remains poor [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][5][7] 2. Core Views - For methanol, the situation in Iran continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance with several plant shutdowns and production cuts planned. The price is likely to be range - bound, with the MTO profit capping the upside. A bearish view or selling call options may be appropriate [2] - For plastics, the futures market fluctuates, the spot price is stable, and the basis is weak. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the supply - demand balance of LL in May is expected to face significant pressure [2] - For PP, the futures market is stable, the basis is weak. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume declines slightly. The overall inventory is neutral, and the supply - demand balance in May and later is expected to be slightly under pressure [5] - For PVC, the basis improves slightly, the trading volume is average. The overall profit is low, the inventory is moderately high, and the long - term outlook is poor due to weak real - estate demand [6][7] 3. Summary by Different Categories Methanol - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/30 to 2026/02/05, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased by 70, the price of South China spot decreased by 20, and the main contract basis changed from - 55 to - 35 [2] - **Market Situation**: Iran's situation affects the market, MTO plants show resistance, and the price is restricted by MTO profit [2] Plastics - **Price and Basis**: The futures price of L fluctuates, the spot price is stable, and the basis is weak. The regional basis and price differences change [2] - **Profit and Inventory**: The oil - and coal - based production profits decline, the upstream coal chemical industry and Sinopec & PetroChina reduce inventory, while the social inventory accumulates. The supply of standard products increases [2] PP - **Price and Basis**: The futures price is stable, the basis is weak, and the regional price differences change [5] - **Profit and Inventory**: The import and export profits are negative, the downstream profit improves, the supply has temporary maintenance plans, and the inventory situation is complex with overall neutrality [5] PVC - **Price and Basis**: The basis improves slightly, the trading volume is average, and the prices of raw materials and products change [6][7] - **Profit and Inventory**: The comprehensive profit is low, the upstream starts production at a moderate rate, the demand is stable, the inventory is moderately high, and the export remains stable [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given text Core Viewpoints - Chinese methanol port inventory begins to show a lagging de - stocking, with a significant decline in port inventory this week and a slowdown in arrivals being gradually realized [2] - The MTO in the downstream is in the maintenance period, causing the de - stocking of the port not to be fully realized, and some downstream MTO devices are still under maintenance [2] - Coal - based methanol in the inland maintains high - level operation, downstream pending orders perform well, and inland factory inventory further decreases, without realizing the seasonal inventory build - up before the Spring Festival [3] - Traditional downstream industries: acetic acid maintains a loss - making and low - load state, formaldehyde continues to reduce its load seasonally, and MTBE operation shows good performance [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][20] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][24][25] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [6][31][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between North Shandong - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][35][42] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report presents the production gross profits of traditional downstream products, including the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][48][51]

研究中心能化团队 2026/02/04 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/2 8 801 2305 2290 2370 - 2275 2385 269 322 8 -55 - 2026/01/2 9 801 2300 2290 2375 - 2275 2385 271 322 -4 -55 - 2026/01/3 0 801 2275 2280 2378 - 2275 2385 268 323 -4 -55 - 2026/02/0 2 801 2237 2228 2385 - 2275 2385 268 323 -39 -37 - 2026/02/0 3 801 2225 2238 2385 - 2330 2385 - - - -45 - 日度变化 0 -12 10 0 - 55 0 - - - -8 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MT ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For methanol, with the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance, some plants like Xingxing and Shenghong have parking plans. Currently, methanol has limited upward and downward space, and it is more appropriate to be bearish or sell call options [1] - For PE, the spot price is stable, the basis is weak, oil - and coal - based profits turn worse, upstream inventories are decreasing while social inventories are increasing. The supply of standard products is growing, and the supply - demand balance of LL in the 05 contract is under pressure [4] - For PP, the market is stable, the basis is weak, import and export profits are negative, and the export volume is slightly decreasing. Supply is flat in January, downstream demand shows some improvement, and overall inventory is neutral. The balance sheet for the 05 contract and later is expected to be slightly under pressure [10] - For PVC, the basis is improving, the market transaction is average, the comprehensive profit is low, the short - term seasonal start - up is recovering, and the overall inventory is high. The long - term demand from the real estate industry is weak, and the medium - and long - term outlook is poor [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price data includes various regional prices such as Hebei, Northwest, CFR Southeast, etc. The price fluctuations are shown, and the MTO profit situation restricts the upward space of methanol prices [1] - Graphs show the trends of MA spot price, basis, regional price differences, production profits, MTO profits, international price ratios, etc. [1] PE - Price and inventory data: On January 2, 2026, there are prices for Northeast Asia ethylene, various PE products in different regions, and related inventory and basis data. The daily changes show price and basis fluctuations [4] - Market conditions: The market is volatile, with stable spot prices, weak basis, and changes in production profits and inventory levels. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the supply - demand balance of LL is under pressure [4] PP - Price and inventory data: There are prices for Northeast Asia propylene, various PP products in different regions, import and export profits, and basis data on January 26 - 30, 2026, along with daily changes [10] - Market conditions: The market is stable, the basis is weak, import and export profits are negative, and the export volume is slightly decreasing. Supply is flat in January, downstream demand shows some improvement, and overall inventory is neutral [10] PVC - Price and profit data: From January 26 - 30, 2026, there are prices for Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and different production methods of PVC in different regions, as well as profit and basis data [11][12] - Market conditions: The basis is improving, the market transaction is average, the comprehensive profit is low, the short - term seasonal start - up is recovering, and the overall inventory is high. The long - term demand from the real estate industry is weak [12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: In the short term, geopolitical disturbances are strong, and the fundamental driving force is downward. In the short term, the market focuses on the geopolitical situation in Iran, with strong emotional support. In the medium to long term, as the supply reduction gradually returns and the demand - side PDH is in deep loss, the driving force is downward [3][4]. - **Propylene**: The upward driving force has weakened, and attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances. Next week, with the expected return of fluctuating PDH devices, the tight - balance pattern of propylene may improve, and its trend is more driven by the cost and supply sides [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - The US dollar cost of LPG maintains a strong and volatile trend, and domestic civil prices rise steadily. The freight rate has increased, the spot premium has declined, and the US Gulf - Far East arbitrage window remains open [12]. - The lowest deliverable product is East China civil LPG [15]. - **Supply** - The total domestic LPG commodity volume is 543,000 tons (+1.9%), including 232,000 tons of civil gas (+1.6%) and 169,000 tons of ether - after carbon four (+2.9%). The propane import volume has decreased by 43,000 tons compared with the previous period [63][74]. - The total US LPG shipment volume is stable month - on - month, the Canadian shipment volume is stable, and the Middle East LPG shipment volume has increased month - on - month [42][45]. - **Demand & Inventory** - The PDH operating rate has further declined slightly, and the MTBE operating rate is flat month - on - month. The LPG refinery inventory is at a neutral level compared with the same period in 2025, and there is regional differentiation in the civil gas refinery inventory. The LPG terminal imported cargo inventory continues to decrease [81][83][93][107]. - **Balance Sheet** - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong. In the second quarter, the supply will return to normal, and the tight supply - demand pattern is expected to ease [119]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - Geopolitical risks have intensified, costs have increased, and propylene's own supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, rising and then stabilizing. The PDH profit has weakened after a brief recovery [122]. - International/US - dollar prices have increased month - on - month, and the import window remains closed. Domestic prices were strong at the beginning of the week and gradually stabilized in the middle of the week [126][132]. - **Balance Sheet** - The overall operating rate of propylene upstream is 70.5% (-0.9%). The oil - based operating rate has increased, while the PDH and MTO operating rates have declined. Downstream varieties have more load - reduction than load - increase [142]. - The supply and demand of propylene in the national and Shandong regions are analyzed in detail, including the production, import, export, and consumption of each month from 2025 to 2026 [146][163][166]. - **Supply** - The overall operating rate of propylene upstream is 70.5% (-0.9%). The refinery/main - operating rate has further increased to 80%, the ethylene cracking operating rate is 85.1% (+3.0%), the PDH capacity utilization rate is 60.7% (-1.5%), and the MTO capacity utilization rate is 80.9% (-3.4%) [173][184][194][199]. - Some PDH and MTO devices have undergone maintenance and restart operations [198][203]. - **Demand** - The PP capacity utilization rate is 74.8% (-1.3%), the PP powder capacity utilization rate is 32.1% (+1.3%), the PO capacity utilization rate is 73.3% (+0.3%), the acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 69.0% (-6.2%), the acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 84.2% (+2.6%), the n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 86.1% (-1.4%), the octanol capacity utilization rate is 91.0% (-5.0%), the phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the ECH capacity utilization rate is 54.3% (-3.7%) [215][234][246][259][264][277][282][287][297]. - Some devices in each downstream industry have undergone start - stop and load - adjustment operations [219][238][250][263][276][281][286][292]. - **Downstream Inventory** - PP production enterprise inventory, PP powder inventory, and other downstream inventories have changed to varying degrees [301][303][304].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/29 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/2 2 801 2238 2220 2355 - 2285 2385 265 322 -22 -5 - 2026/01/2 3 801 2263 2240 2345 - 2285 2385 267 322 -3 -20 - 2026/01/2 6 801 2300 2278 2360 - 2285 2405 272 322 -10 -45 - 2026/01/2 7 801 2267 2265 2355 - 2285 2388 267 322 9 -35 - 2026/01/2 8 801 2305 2290 2370 - 2275 2385 - - - -55 - 日度变化 0 38 25 15 - -10 -3 - - - -20 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来 ...