金十数据5月29日讯，美国联邦法院裁定阻止特朗普总统的全面关税政策，受此影响，美元在早些时候 上涨后出现回落。法国兴业银行的基特・朱克斯在一份报告中表示，考虑到关税最初削弱了美元以及美 国的增长预期，美元对这一消息的"膝跳"式上涨是可以理解的。然而，他表示，这一裁决并非事情的终 结，令人惊讶的新闻还会不断出现。他还称，关税仍有可能实施。我唯一确定的是，已经很高的不确定 性又上升了一个台阶。 法兴银行：美法院阻止特朗普关税政策提高不确定性 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the limitations of economics as a social science, emphasizing that economic theories cannot be permanently validated or invalidated due to the changing nature of human behavior and societal ideas [2][3] - Keynesian economics, which emerged during the Great Depression, highlighted the role of government in stabilizing the economy and addressing issues like insufficient effective demand and unemployment [3][4] - The rise of neoliberalism in the 1970s challenged Keynesian principles, attributing economic stagnation to government intervention rather than market failure, yet Keynesian policies remain relevant during economic crises [4][8] Group 2 - The concept of uncertainty is central to Keynes's theory, influencing his views on money and government as tools to manage economic unpredictability [5][6] - Keynesian policies are particularly effective in addressing liquidity preference traps, where individuals hoard cash during economic downturns, leading to insufficient demand [6][7] - Despite the decline of Keynesianism in the 1970s due to its inability to address stagflation, the theory's focus on short-term stabilization remains significant in guiding macroeconomic policy during crises [8][9]

瑞典央行金融稳定报告：美国贸易和安全政策的剧烈转变在春季引发了市场的巨大波动，并带来了比平 常更大的不确定性。 ...

美联储古尔斯比：仍然认为在市场波动之下经济依然强劲。如果关税和不确定性不对通胀构成威胁，利 率最终可能会下降。 ...

欧洲央行会议纪要：不确定性、欧元升值以及油气价格下跌，将进一步抑制近期的通胀前景。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading as a pathway to growth and understanding, inspired by the thoughts of renowned investors like Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections Reading and Interaction - The publication aims to encourage continuous reading and interaction with its audience through book reviews, lists, and excerpts [4][5]. - Readers are invited to engage in discussions on selected themes, with opportunities to receive books based on the quality of their comments [6][11]. Featured Book: "Money and Government" - The highlighted book is "Money and Government" by Robert Skidelsky, which explores Keynesian economics and its relevance in modern times [9][10]. - The book discusses the limitations of economics as a social science, emphasizing that economic theories cannot be permanently validated or invalidated due to the changing nature of human behavior and societal ideas [12][13]. Keynesian Economics - Keynesian thought emerged during the Great Depression, focusing on the role of government in stabilizing the economy and addressing issues like insufficient effective demand and unemployment [13][14]. - Despite facing criticism and challenges from neoliberalism, Keynesian policies remain relevant during economic crises, as they provide tools for counter-cyclical measures [16][17]. Role of Money and Government - The book argues that both money and government are essential tools for managing uncertainty in economic activities, with money serving as a means to maintain value over time [15][19]. - It highlights the concept of liquidity preference traps, where individuals hoard cash during downturns, leading to insufficient demand [15][16]. Critique of Mainstream Economics - The author critiques mainstream economic theories that downplay the role of money and government, arguing that these theories fail to address real-world economic challenges [18][19]. - The discussion includes the historical context of economic events and the ideological biases that shape economic thought, advocating for a reevaluation of the roles of money and government in economic policy [19].

美联储博斯蒂克表示，美国国债市场的波动性可能会加重不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty in the current economic environment is hindering decision-making for both businesses and households, which is expected to impact the economic outlook [1] Group 1 - Businesses are facing challenges in making timely decisions due to prevailing uncertainties [1] - Households are also struggling with decision-making, which may lead to delayed economic activities [1] - The anticipated delay in decision-making could negatively affect the overall economic prospects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of accepting market uncertainty and adopting a diversified investment strategy to achieve long-term asset appreciation [3][18]. Group 1: Addressing Market Uncertainty - Investors should reduce the dangers of linear thinking, which can lead to poor investment outcomes when trends are assumed to continue indefinitely. Recent market trends showed a rapid increase of 20%-30% from September 24 to September 30, followed by adjustments from October 8 to October 17 [4][11]. - Accepting market volatility as a norm is essential for investors. Historical data indicates that after significant market rallies, adjustments typically occur, ranging from 10% to 30% [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Avoiding concentrated investments is crucial during market fluctuations. Heavy investments can lead to emotional decision-making and increased pressure, especially if investors lack deep research and long-term capital [14][15][16]. - Emphasizing a diversified investment approach can enhance tolerance for market volatility. Investors should cultivate a mindset for asset allocation and avoid focusing solely on one investment style [17]. Group 3: Conclusion on Investment Approaches - There is no absolute superiority between concentrated and diversified investments; the effectiveness depends on the investor's understanding and ability to identify opportunities. Given recent extreme market risks, the necessity of asset allocation has become increasingly apparent [18][19].

瑞士央行行长施莱格尔：不确定性不利于经济增长。 ...