美联储戴利：市场情绪受到冲击，但尚未反映在消费者和企业的整体支出大幅回落中，不确定性并未抑 制经济活动，但如果不确定性持续存在，可能会对经济产生影响。 ...

美联储戴利：在不确定性下企业保持谨慎，但尚未陷入停滞。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility at the beginning of Trump's second term, but this may not be a significant issue as some strategists believe it could lead to beneficial outcomes for investors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the November 5 election, the market surged as investors anticipated a business-friendly approach from President Trump [1]. - During Trump's first 100 days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both fell over 4%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 8% [3]. - Strategists are finding reasons to believe that Trump may not fulfill his campaign promises, leading to skepticism about the market's optimistic outlook [3]. Group 2: Uncertainty and Its Implications - Albert Edwards argues that uncertainty, often seen as a market enemy, could actually benefit Wall Street by keeping investors alert [3][4]. - The term "uncertainty" has become prevalent in discussions, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell used it extensively in a March press conference [3]. - Edwards suggests that excessive certainty can lead to increased debt levels, which could be detrimental to the market [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Corporate Impact - The Federal Reserve's attempts to ensure a soft landing and reduce volatility may inadvertently encourage credit and financial bubbles [6][7]. - Edwards warns that the current political climate, characterized by populist interventionist policies, could undermine the stock market's bullish trend [10]. - He highlights the issue of price gouging during the pandemic, where unit costs rose while corporate profit margins reached record highs, indicating a potential shift in regulatory stance under Trump [10]. Group 4: Future Regulatory Changes - Edwards anticipates that Trump may push for stronger competition regulations, which could negatively impact corporate profit margins as companies are forced to absorb increased costs from tariffs [10]. - The potential for regulatory changes could create further uncertainty in the market, which may not be the worst outcome for investors [11].

欧洲央行管委Knot：（欧元区）经济增长和通胀短期内都面临不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Knot indicates that short-term uncertainties are negatively impacting economic growth and inflation [1] Economic Impact - Short-term uncertainties are creating challenges for economic growth, suggesting a potential slowdown in various sectors [1] - The negative influence on inflation could lead to adjustments in monetary policy and market expectations [1]

即使是短暂的贸易战也会引发不确定性。 欧洲央行管委Makhlouf：敏捷性和灵活性对政策制定者很重要。 ...

美联储古尔斯比：由于不确定性，我再次支持保持观望。 ...

Group 1 - The degree of uncertainty may have slightly decreased [1] - The extent of supply shocks has also lessened [1]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry, particularly in Europe and the U.S., is facing significant challenges due to economic uncertainties, fluctuating tariffs, and declining demand for electric vehicles, leading to a general decline in profitability across major companies [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Bosch Group reported a sales revenue of €90.3 billion for the fiscal year 2024, a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, with an adjusted decline of 0.5% after currency effects. The EBIT was €3.1 billion, down from €4.8 billion in 2023, resulting in an EBIT margin of 3.5% [1]. - Mercedes-Benz's net profit for Q1 was €1.73 billion, a decrease of approximately 43% year-on-year, while BMW's net profit fell by 26.4% to €2.173 billion. Volkswagen saw a nearly 41% drop in net profit despite a nearly 3% increase in revenue [2]. - Ford's net profit in Q1 dropped by 64.49% to $473 million, while General Motors reported a net profit of $2.8 billion, down 6.6% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese market is crucial for multinational automotive companies, with electric vehicles rapidly gaining market share at the expense of traditional fuel vehicles. This shift has pressured joint venture brands that primarily focus on fuel vehicles [3][4]. - The competition in the Chinese automotive market is intense, leading to significant price reductions. Entry-level compact fuel vehicles are now priced below ¥80,000, while B-class vehicles have dropped to around ¥150,000 [4][5]. - Luxury brands are experiencing severe price discrepancies, with price reductions reaching up to 50% due to supply-demand imbalances [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Predictions - Bosch aims for an annual sales growth of at least 6% and a profit margin of at least 7% by 2030, despite the current economic uncertainties affecting short-term profitability predictions [6][7]. - Many companies, including Cummins and Mercedes-Benz, have suspended or withdrawn their 2025 profit forecasts due to the unpredictable nature of tariff policies and their potential impacts on consumer behavior and demand [8][9]. - General Motors has also retracted its 2025 performance guidance, anticipating a reduction in EBIT by $4 billion to $5 billion due to tariff impacts [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams emphasizes that uncertainty will continue to be a defining characteristic of monetary policy in the foreseeable future due to structural changes in the global economic environment [1] Group 1 - Williams highlights the current high level of uncertainty and its persistence in the near term [1] - He attributes this uncertainty to structural changes such as artificial intelligence, de-globalization, and innovations in the financial system [1] - Williams refrains from commenting on the economic outlook or specific monetary policy actions [1] Group 2 - The independence of central banks is noted as a factor that can lead to better outcomes in the current uncertain environment [1]