Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is running at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held from October 20th to 23rd in Beijing, mainly to study the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work for the second half of the year [2] - On October 18th, He Lifeng held a video call with the US Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] Production Data - Last week, 13 provincial steel mills had production line maintenance and resumption. There were 3 maintenance lines, a decrease of 6 compared with the previous week, and 8 resumption lines, an increase of 1 compared with the previous week. The production affected by maintenance was 215,300 tons last week and is expected to be 63,800 tons this week [2] - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills last week was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 2.34 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 65,900 tons year - on - year [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide last week was 53.2%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.32 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 68.85%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2] Price and Market Analysis - The finished steel prices fluctuated and declined last week, hitting new lows. Rebar was close to 3,000, and hot - rolled coil once fell below 3,200. After the holiday, the fundamentals of steel changed little, and the weak downstream situation improved limitedly. The weekly fundamentals were neutral to weak. Sino - US trade frictions affected market sentiment and caused the steel price to decline. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and domestic important meetings [2]

Group 1 - Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks, indicating a shift in trade policy [12] - The U.S. and China agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations soon, reflecting ongoing trade discussions [14] - The U.S. Treasury Department purchased Argentine pesos at an unofficial exchange rate, highlighting currency market interventions [12] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index closed down 2.48%, with significant declines in chip stocks, Apple-related stocks, and electric equipment stocks [3] - The A-share market saw all three major indices decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.95% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.04% [4] - The market experienced a broad sell-off, with over 4,700 stocks declining, while certain sectors like precious metals and gas saw gains [4] Group 3 - Gold prices hit a historical high of $4,379 per ounce before dropping nearly $130, closing at $4,250.93 per ounce, while silver also saw significant fluctuations [2][7] - WTI crude oil rose by 0.65% to $57.24 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.69% to $61.26 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical developments [2][7] - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, recorded gains, with the Dow up 0.52% and the S&P 500 up 0.53% [2][7]

Group 1 - The Chinese side maintains an open attitude towards equal consultations based on mutual respect in trade talks with the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, has indicated that the proposed 100% tariffs on China may not be implemented, reflecting a shift in the U.S. stance amid ongoing trade negotiations [5][8][12] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Bessent's comments suggest a more optimistic outlook on U.S.-China relations, emphasizing that communication channels have reopened and new working-level meetings are scheduled [8][9] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has confirmed ongoing negotiations, indicating a willingness to maintain dialogue despite tensions [9][17] - Bessent's remarks are seen as an attempt to calm U.S. financial markets, which have been volatile due to fears of a renewed trade war [12][14] Group 2: Historical Context and Strategic Implications - Bessent pointed out that the U.S. has historically neglected strategic issues like rare earth elements, which China now leverages in negotiations [10][18] - The U.S. administration's aggressive rhetoric towards China is viewed as counterproductive, potentially leading to further complications in negotiations [16][17] - China's control over rare earth resources is not merely a bargaining chip but a reflection of its established dominance in the supply chain, which poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests [18][19] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following Bessent's statements, U.S. stock markets experienced a rebound, indicating that investor sentiment may be improving amid the uncertainty [14] - However, if substantial progress is not made in the upcoming negotiations, the positive market sentiment may not be sustainable [15] - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the complexities of U.S.-China relations, with both sides needing to reassess their strategies to achieve a mutually beneficial outcome [19]

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions based on laws and regulations, aimed at enhancing its export control system [1] - China asserts that its export controls are not prohibitive and that applications meeting regulations will continue to be approved, aiming to maintain global supply chain stability [1] - The Chinese side criticizes the U.S. for its long-term misuse of national security to impose discriminatory measures against China, which has severely harmed China's interests and disrupted the atmosphere for economic talks [1] Group 2 - China maintains a consistent stance on the trade war, indicating readiness to engage in both confrontation and dialogue, highlighting the mutual benefits of cooperation [2] - The Chinese government stresses that past economic negotiations have shown that solutions can be found through mutual respect and equal consultation [2] - China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and demonstrate sincerity in negotiations, advocating for dialogue to manage differences and promote healthy, stable, and sustainable development of Sino-U.S. economic relations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes its commitment to maintaining national security and international stability through its export control measures, particularly regarding rare earth elements, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - China asserts that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions based on legal regulations aimed at improving its export control system [1]. - The Chinese government maintains that its export controls do not equate to a ban, as applications that meet regulations will continue to be approved [1]. Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The Chinese side expresses a consistent stance on the trade conflict, indicating readiness to engage in both dialogue and confrontation, highlighting the mutual benefits of cooperation [2]. - The Chinese government urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and demonstrate sincerity in negotiations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the outcomes of previous discussions [2].

Core Viewpoint - China's stance on the tariff and trade war is consistent: ready to fight back if necessary, but open to dialogue [1][3] Group 1: Trade Relations - The Chinese government has clarified its position regarding the U.S. threat to impose a 100% tariff and other restrictive measures, emphasizing that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions based on laws and regulations [2] - China maintains that its export controls are not prohibitive and will continue to approve applications that meet regulations, aiming to ensure the stability of global supply chains [2] - The U.S. has been accused of abusing export controls and implementing discriminatory practices against China, which has severely harmed China's interests and disrupted the atmosphere for bilateral economic talks [2] Group 2: Dialogue and Cooperation - China asserts that both countries have extensive common interests and cooperation potential, indicating that mutual benefits can be achieved through collaboration [3] - The past four rounds of economic negotiations have demonstrated that solutions can be found based on mutual respect and equal consultation [3] - China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and show sincerity in negotiations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the hard-won results of previous discussions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, the dynamics of China-U.S. trade negotiations, and the resilience of the Chinese economy under tariff pressures [1][5]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - As of September 29, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1089, an increase of 63 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB has shown a pattern of narrow fluctuations, with the offshore RMB reaching around 7.08 in early September before dropping below 7.14 the following week [1]. - The recent depreciation of the RMB is attributed to a temporary rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a two-week high of 98.6044 on September 25 [2]. Internal and External Factors - The "strong dollar, weak RMB" trend is a result of multiple converging factors, including the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for foreign currency [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent comments on inflation and employment risks have tempered market expectations for significant rate cuts, providing temporary support for the dollar [2][3]. Economic Recovery and Trade Relations - The RMB's overall trend this year has been one of appreciation, driven by both internal recovery and external factors, with experts predicting that short-term fluctuations will not alter the long-term stability of the RMB [4][5]. - Positive developments in China-U.S. trade negotiations have contributed to a more stable outlook for the RMB, as the People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining the currency's stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the RMB is experiencing upward pressure due to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a cooling U.S. economy, which has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB [1][2][3] - As of the third quarter, the RMB against the USD has shown a cumulative increase of 434 basis points, with a rise of 0.6% in the middle rate, 311 basis points in the onshore rate, and 139 basis points in the offshore rate [1][2] - The RMB's appreciation is supported by a favorable external environment, strong domestic equity market performance, and increased foreign capital inflow, which has improved market sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - The future outlook suggests that the RMB will maintain a stable trajectory, with "steady growth" and "two-way fluctuations" being the main themes of its exchange rate movement [1][4] - Factors contributing to the RMB's strength include the Fed's interest rate cuts, ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, and China's proactive measures against external economic pressures [3][4] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is increasing, driven by the Fed's easing cycle, which is expected to channel funds into non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets and high-yield assets [6][7] Group 3 - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing, with significant developments in cross-border payment infrastructure and digital currency initiatives, marking a new phase in its global monetary role [7][8] - The RMB's position as the sixth most active currency in global payments, with a share of 2.93%, reflects its stable development in the international payment system [8] - The ongoing geopolitical economic risks are creating a strategic opportunity for the RMB's internationalization, as the trend of dollar dominance is expected to face long-term pressure [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes that trade wars and tariff conflicts do not benefit either party and advocates for negotiations based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit [3]. Group 1: Trade Relations - The Chinese side has not confirmed whether discussions on increasing imports of U.S. soybeans will take place during the U.S.-China trade negotiations [1]. - The spokesperson suggests that specific inquiries should be directed to the relevant Chinese authorities for detailed information [3].