Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold maintains an intraday oscillatory pattern, while silver oscillates in the range of 8,900 - 8,930 yuan/kg after opening lower. The gold market absorbs the decline in inflation expectations and the anticipation of China - US negotiations. A positive outcome from the negotiations may trigger a new round of gold price corrections [2]. - Institutional demand supports the bullish market structure. Central banks, including China, are diversifying away from the US dollar, providing long - term fundamental support for gold prices. Geopolitical tensions can rapidly drive up gold prices [2]. - The next market catalyst is the US May CPI data on June 11. Lower - than - expected CPI data may reignite expectations of interest rate cuts and push gold prices back to recent highs [2]. - In the long run, the repeated expectations of Trump's tariff policies, the persistent US debt problem, and the weakening economic data leading to interest rate cut expectations form triple pressures. The damage to the US dollar's credit may accelerate the global de - dollarization process, which is structurally beneficial to the precious metals market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 775.06 yuan/gram, up 0.34 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 8,887 yuan/kg, down 22 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 170,163 lots, down 3,021 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 465,984 lots, down 25,402 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 130,510 lots, up 1,723 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 128,510 lots, down 5,009 lots [2]. - The gold warehouse receipt quantity is 17,817 kg, down 30 kg; the silver warehouse receipt quantity is 1,193,716 kg, up 35,390 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 768.19 yuan/gram, up 0.79 yuan; the silver spot price is 8,863 yuan/kg, up 83 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 6.87 yuan/gram, up 0.45 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 24 yuan/kg, up 105 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 936.22 tons, up 2.01 tons; silver ETF holdings are 14,656.98 tons, down 52.31 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 187,905 contracts, up 13,721 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 60,770 contracts, up 7,758 contracts [2]. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total annual global demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 19.47%, down 1.36%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 25.96%, down 0.13% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 22.54%, down 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 22.54%, down 0.27% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and will continue on June 10 [2]. - Senate Republicans plan to propose revised tax and healthcare provisions this week for Trump's $3 - trillion economic plan, ignoring Elon Musk's accusations and aiming to enact the bill before July 4 [2]. - The US Congressional Budget Office expects the US to hit the debt ceiling between mid - August and the end of September [2]. - In May, US consumers' future inflation expectations declined across the board for the first time since 2024, with the one - year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% [2]. - Citigroup postponed its forecast of US interest rate cuts from July to September and expects three rate cuts this year instead of four [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 2.01 tons to 936.22 tons, while the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 52.31 tons to 14,656.98 tons [2]. - China increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month in May, and central banks' actions provide long - term support for gold prices [2]. - The next catalyst is the US May CPI data on June 11. Lower - than - expected data may push gold prices up [2]. - Long - term factors such as Trump's tariff policies, the US debt problem, and interest rate cut expectations are beneficial to the precious metals market [2]. - The Shanghai gold 2508 contract is recommended to focus on the range of 760 - 790 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2508 contract is recommended to focus on the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/kg [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.17% [1] - Over 4,000 stocks in the market fell, with a total trading volume of 1.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 129 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Market Dynamics - A sudden wave of selling occurred between 13:10 and 13:30, leading to a nearly uniform sell-off across various sectors, causing major indices to drop by approximately 1% [2] - During this period of panic, the number of declining stocks approached 4,800 [4] Sector Performance - Despite the overall market decline, certain sectors such as port shipping, grain (including genetically modified crops, corn, and seed industry), and rare earths showed strong performance [4] - The market's reaction may be linked to the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, with reports indicating that discussions were taking place in London [6][8] Investment Sentiment - The market's fluctuations suggest that some investors may be taking profits ahead of the negotiations, particularly from sectors that had seen significant gains recently [8] - The future market direction will largely depend on the progress of the U.S.-China negotiations, with a focus on official reports for accurate information [8] Analyst Insights - Recent reports from Zhongtai International Securities indicate that the U.S.-China talks may reduce uncertainty in the short term, but significant differences remain on issues such as tariffs and technology export controls [10] - The report also highlights that the Hong Kong market is experiencing a rotation of funds among focus sectors, with no significant new capital inflow [10] - Analysts suggest that low-valuation, high-growth potential sectors may perform well in the near term, while defensive dividend sectors still hold value [10] Stock Market Trends - The upcoming unlocking of shares for "new consumption" stocks in Hong Kong may lead to increased volatility in stock prices, suggesting that investors should consider taking profits [11] - This perspective may also be relevant for related sectors in the A-share market [11]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-10 市场分析 国内核心CPI上涨。国内方面，国家统计局数据显示，5月份，CPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，扣除食品和能 源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%， 降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。据海关统计，今年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值为17.94万亿元，同比增长2.5%。 其中，出口10.67万亿元，增长7.2%；进口7.27万亿元，下降3.8%。海外方面，纽约联储调查数据显示，5月美国消 费者未来通胀预期全面下降，为2024年来首次，其中一年期通胀预期降幅最大，从4月的3.6%降至3.2%，三年期、 五年期通胀预期也均有下降。关注即将发布的美国通胀数据。 指数走高。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡走高，上证指数涨0.43%收于3399.77点，创业板指涨1.07%。行业方面， 板块指数基本收红，医药生物、农林牧渔、纺织服饰行业领涨，仅食品饮料行业收跌。当日沪深两市成交金额增 至1.3万亿元。海外市场，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行，带动芯片股上涨，美国三大股指收盘 涨跌 ...

Domestic News - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will continue [1] - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year [1] - The Central Committee and the State Council support guiding local governments to directly distribute maternity insurance benefits to insured individuals and to reasonably increase the minimum wage standard [1] - Premier Li Qiang presided over the 14th special study session of the State Council, emphasizing the need to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and support qualified enterprises to lead or participate in national science and technology innovation projects [1] - The General Administration of Customs reported that in the first five months of this year, the total import and export of goods increased by 2.5% year-on-year; trade with the US decreased by 8.1% during the same period [1] International News - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the US proposal regarding the nuclear agreement is "unacceptable," with the next round of nuclear negotiations expected to take place in Oman on Sunday [2] - Protests in Los Angeles have led California to sue the Trump administration over troop deployment, with Trump expressing a desire to avoid civil war in the US [2] Other News - Japan is considering repurchasing some ultra-long-term government bonds [3] - Japan's chief negotiator Akizawa Ryozo plans to visit the US this week [3] - Trump announced a newborn savings plan, proposing to save $1,000 for each child born [3] - The US Senate plans to introduce significant adjustments to Trump's tax reform proposal this week [3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that measures to avoid reaching the debt ceiling will be exhausted between mid-August and the end of September [3] - The Canadian Prime Minister stated that Canada should no longer allocate 75% of its defense budget to the US and will diversify its defense partnerships [3]

行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 据新华社，当地时间6月9日，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰与美方在英国伦敦开始举 ...

股指或震荡偏强，国债观 望为主 2025-06-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：周五沪深300股指主力合约期货跌0.02%，上证50股指主力合约期货跌0.09%，中证 500股指主力合约期货跌0.02%，中证1000股指主力合约期货跌0.01%。 p 核心观点：美国5月非农好于预期，特朗普仍呼吁降息1个百分点，指责鲍威尔让美国"损失惨重" ，并 称将很快公布下一任美联储主席人选。国务院副总理何立峰于6月8-13日访问英国，其间，与美方举行 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。中国商务部就中重稀土出口管制措施答记者问：实施出口管制符合国际通 行做法，已依法批准一定数量的合规申请。中美经贸磋商机制首次会议将举行，股指或震荡偏强运行。 p 技术分析：K ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upcoming first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, which is set to take place in London from June 8 to June 13, 2023 [2][3] - The meeting is part of a visit by He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, who is visiting the UK at the invitation of the British government [2][3] - The Chinese side has already released information regarding the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, indicating a focus on trade relations between the two countries [2]

路透社记者提问，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议正在英国举行，中方能否介绍更多情况，对磋商有何 期待？ 外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。 "中方已经发布了中美经贸磋商机制首次会议有关消息，关于磋商的具体情况请你保持关注。"林剑 说。 ...

6月9日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。路透社记者提问，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议正在英国举 行，中方能否介绍更多情况，对磋商有何期待？"中方已经发布了中美经贸磋商机制首次会议有关消 息，关于磋商的具体情况请你保持关注。"林剑说。(智通财经) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; for silver, considering the increase in London inventory and the change in industrial demand, it is recommended to go short on silver at high prices or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, copper is recommended to be bought at low prices; aluminum is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see; alumina is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 7000 - 7600 yuan, and it is advisable to wait and see; lithium carbonate may be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; polysilicon can consider anti - arbitrage strategies and short - selling on rebounds [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, it is recommended to chase long on the rebar 2510 contract in the short - term; for iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see; for coking coal, it is advisable to wait and see and try to chase long on the coking coal 2509 contract in the short - term [4]. - In the agricultural product market, soybeans are expected to fluctuate; corn futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; sugar is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; cotton is advisable to wait and see; palm oil has no major contradictions currently; eggs and hogs are expected to fluctuate, and apples are advisable to wait and see [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; PVC is advisable to wait and see and sell call options above 4850; PTA can be short - sold on processing fees at high prices; rubber is advisable to use an interval trading strategy; glass is recommended to sell call options above 1250; PP is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; MEG is expected to be strong in the short - term, but long positions should be carefully considered; crude oil should be short - sold at high prices; styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; soda ash is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and call options can be sold; caustic soda is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Commodity Futures 3.1.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Spot gold fell by more than 1% last Friday, while spot silver continued its upward trend, rising by more than 1.4% before a slight decline [1]. - **News**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8th to 13th and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism; the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 7th consecutive month, with a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces, and the increase rate continues to slow down; Japan's chief trade negotiator and Minister of Economic Revitalization Akera Masaru is going to the US for the fifth round of Japan - US tariff negotiations [1]. - **Economic Data**: In May, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000, the lowest since February, although higher than market expectations, but the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 95,000; the unemployment rate was 4.2%, with an unexpected increase in wages but a shrinking labor force; US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion, with student loans soaring to a record high of $1.8 trillion; from January to March 2025, the global real estate investment increased by 34% year - on - year, and the real estate investment in Japan exceeded 2 trillion yen, reaching a quarterly record high, a 23% increase compared with the same period last year [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic gold ETFs flowed in again the previous day. COMEX gold inventory was 1191 tons with little change, SHFE gold inventory was 17 tons with a slight increase, and London's gold inventory in May was 8598 tons; SHFE silver inventory was 1107 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous day, SGE silver inventory decreased by 49 tons to 1347 tons last week, COMEX silver inventory was 15413 tons, a decrease of 13 tons from the previous day, and London's inventory in May increased by more than 500 tons to 23367 tons; India's silver imports in March decreased to about 120 tons. In April, Switzerland's gold imports from the US increased significantly, and the US market continued to outflow [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, so it is recommended to go long on gold; for silver, considering the increase in London inventory and the change in industrial demand, it is recommended to go short on silver at high prices or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, copper prices fluctuated strongly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Copper prices are in a state of strong overseas and weak domestic. The weakening of the US dollar index supports copper prices, but domestic demand has slowed down, the spot premium has weakened, and the structure has weakened. London inventory has continued to decline, with the cancellation ratio exceeding 60%, and the back has reached over $70. In addition, the phone call between Chinese and US leaders has boosted market risk appetite [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy at low prices [2]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 0.30% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 20,070 yuan/ton, with a domestic 3 - month spread of 310 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2450/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity has increased slightly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of aluminum products has decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of alumina is falling, and profits are shifting to the electrolytic aluminum end. Supply may maintain high - load production, while downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the operating rate of some sectors continues to decline. However, low inventory provides support at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see [2][3]. - **Alumina** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 1.43% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2901 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 335 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the复产 and new production capacities are continuously being released, and the operating capacity has increased. In terms of demand, electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity is stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The release of alumina's复产 and new production capacities and the accumulation of social inventory have increased supply pressure. Short - sellers are taking the opportunity to push down prices. In the short term, the game between buyers and sellers has intensified. Under the expectation of overall supply - demand surplus, prices may fluctuate weakly, and technical rebounds should be guarded against during the process. It is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 07 contract opened higher and then fluctuated, closing at 7290 yuan/ton, an increase of 155 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The position decreased by 22,773 lots to 161,192 lots. Today, the warehouse receipt decreased by 746 lots to 60,573 lots [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the spot price continued to decline, with a narrowing decline. There was no obvious contraction in the supply end, and the number of open furnaces changed little this week. The market is pessimistic about the continuous decline of inventory. On the demand side, the output of polysilicon in June may increase slightly compared with May. Pay attention to the resumption of production and operation of enterprises after the holiday. The output of silicone has increased slightly, and the prices in the industrial chain have stopped falling. The operating rate of aluminum alloys is relatively stable [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, domestic macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly. When the valuation is low, it is easily disturbed by market sentiment. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate between 7000 - 7600 yuan. It is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 2507 contract closed at 60,440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6% compared with the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the output in June is high, and the expectation of production reduction is weak. SMM expects the output of lithium carbonate in June to be 78,875 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87%. The index of imported spodumene concentrate fell further to $626/ton yesterday, and the profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene has been greatly repaired, with a weak expectation of production reduction. The output this week was 17,471 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.37%. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, and the long - term expectation is pessimistic. The consumption of new energy vehicles is lower than expected. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%, while the wholesale sales in April were 1.14 million, a year - on - year increase of 42%. The consumption has recovered month - on - month, but the growth rate is still slow. The consumption electronics market is pessimistic due to the exhaustion of national subsidies in various regions. The demand for energy storage has been released in advance due to the "new - old cut - off" in Document No. 136, and the demand expectation in the second half of the year has weakened significantly. Social inventory is high and showing an upward trend, reaching 132,432 tons (+861 tons), and the warehouse receipt on Friday decreased slightly to 33,309 lots (-12 lots) [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the strong expectation of demand supports prices to fluctuate. The significant repair of lithium salt production profits and the weak reality of rapid production increase make it highly likely that there will still be a surplus in June. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of demand; in the long term, the key to reversing the surplus pattern of lithium salts still lies in the supply side. In the short term, affected by capital and the macro - environment, prices may deviate from fundamentals and show a slight rebound. Short - term profit - taking can be considered, and then short - sell distant - month contracts at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 07 contract opened higher and then fluctuated downward, closing at 34,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The position decreased by 623 lots to 65,179 lots. The 06 contract has entered the delivery month, and liquidity has weakened. Currently, the contracts still maintain a contango structure. The warehouse receipt has increased to 2460 lots (7380 tons) [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the spot price remained stable. On the supply side, the output in the first week of June decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of production resumption in June, so the output may increase slightly. The industry still has nearly 270,000 tons of inventory. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule data has recovered, but the overall procurement of polysilicon is limited. A photovoltaic industry conference will be held in Shanghai next week. Pay attention to the communication at the conference [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: This week, the warehouse receipt has been increasing continuously, and the logic of warehouse receipt game has weakened. If the warehouse receipt registration exceeds expectations, an anti - arbitrage strategy between 07 and distant - month contracts can be considered. For a single - side position, if there is no further production reduction news, a short - sell on the rebound of the 07 contract can be considered [3]. 3.2 Black Industry - **Rebar** - **Market Performance**: The main rebar 2510 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 2965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply and demand of steel may deteriorate seasonally. The supply and demand of building materials are both weak, but benefiting from low production, the inventory pressure is small; the demand for plates has deteriorated slightly. In the environment of the withdrawal of national subsidies, domestic demand may further weaken, but direct exports remain high. Overall, the supply and demand of steel are relatively balanced, and the contradiction is not significant. Steel futures have been at a discount for two consecutive weeks, and the margin has widened. The news of the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultation is expected to slightly improve market sentiment. It is expected that steel futures prices will fluctuate strongly this week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to chase long on the rebar 2510 contract in the short - term. The reference range for RB10 is 2950 - 3000 [4]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main iron ore 2509 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at $704/ton, a decrease of $4.5/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply and demand of iron ore remain moderately strong. According to the data of the Steel Union, the pig iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month but still maintains a certain year - on - year increase. After the third round of price cuts, the profit margin of steel mills has expanded, and subsequent production will be mainly stable; the supply is in line with seasonal rules, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The supply and demand of iron ore are moderately strong in the short - term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, with a neutral valuation. The news of the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultation is expected to slightly improve market sentiment. It is expected that iron ore futures prices will fluctuate strongly this week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see. The reference range for I09 is 700 - 720 [4]. - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main coking coal 2509 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 million tons to 2.418 million tons month - on - month, with a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons. The profit margin of steel mills has narrowed, and subsequent production will be mainly stable. The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round of price cuts has been proposed. In terms of supply, the inventory at each link is differentiated. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants remain at a relatively low level in the same period of history, while the inventory at the mine mouth, ports and other links continues to remain at a historical high. At the same time, production has decreased month - on - month, and overall supply and demand are still relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. Futures are basically at par with the spot, and the forward curve is gradually flattening. The news of the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultation is expected to slightly improve market sentiment [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see and try to chase long on the coking coal 2509 contract in the short - term. The reference range for JM09 is 770 - 810 [4]. 3.3 Agricultural Product Market - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans continued to rise, digesting the optimistic expectation of China - US trade [5]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the supply in South America is loose in the short - term, while the sowing of new US soybeans is in the later stage. On the demand side, South America dominates in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand for US soybeans is seasonally weak [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate; in China, there will be more soybean arrivals in the later stage, with a weak basis, and the single - side price will follow the international market. Attention should be paid to later trade policies and US soybean production [5]. - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: The corn 2507 contract rose