Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 20, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage policy has stabilized pig prices and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply of live pigs continues to increase while demand enters a seasonal off - peak, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures contracts are currently at a discount to the spot, and the medium - to - long - term trend is likely to be weak, with attention needed on the sustainability of future purchase and storage policies [9] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 19th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and trended downwards, closing with a negative candle. The highest price was 13,845 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,715 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,760 yuan/ton, a 0.47% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,240 lots to 160,443 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 19th, the national average price of三元hogs was 14.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsty increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, mostly in a wait - and - see state, weakening the support for prices. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughter enterprises remained low. On June 19th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 146,800 heads, an increase of 200 heads from the previous day and an increase of 2,900 heads from a week ago [9] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase compared to the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Enterprises were reducing weights and slaughtering normally, the slaughter volume of large pigs decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [9] - **Policy Side**: On June 11th, the central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage had a listed competitive trading volume of 10,000 tons, with a transaction price of 20.3 - 20.8 yuan/kg for No. 2 - 4 meat [9] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [10][12] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% [18] - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten - day period [18] - As of the week of June 13th, the average slaughter weight of sample live pigs was 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.01% [18] - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten - day period. In the week of June 12th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.06 yuan/jin, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin [18]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the swine industry, particularly focusing on the impact of environmental policies in Hunan and other provinces on pig farming and supply dynamics [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Environmental Policies Impact**: Hunan's strict environmental checks are accelerating the exit of smallholders from pig farming, which may significantly affect local pig production capacity. This policy targets farms with over 50 pigs and is expected to last from June to September [2][4]. - **Supply Dynamics**: The exit of smallholders has reduced their share in pig inventory to below 40%. The tightening of environmental regulations may also impact medium and large-scale farms, as few meet compliance standards [2][4]. - **Market Behavior**: In the Southwest region, farmers are increasingly raising larger pigs due to local dietary preferences and favorable feed prices. Current average slaughter weight is around 135 kg, and a reduction to 120 kg could increase supply pressure by approximately 10% [6][7]. - **Price Trends**: High piglet prices in the first half of the year are attributed to increased demand from the expansion of free-range farming in Shandong and the growing need for piglet fattening in the Southwest [9][11]. - **Substitution Effects**: Farmers are shifting from breeding sows to fattening piglets or finishing pigs, creating a substitution effect between these two farming methods [10][11]. - **Demand Comparison**: The Southwest region shows stronger demand compared to Shandong, driven by insufficient frozen meat stocks and anti-dumping policies limiting imports, which narrows the price gap between fresh and frozen products [12][13]. - **Cost Structure**: Listed companies with self-breeding and self-raising practices have a cost advantage, with production costs around 12-12.5 yuan per kg, compared to 13-14 yuan per kg for smallholders who purchase piglets [14]. Additional Important Insights - **Regulatory Effects on Market Behavior**: The recent ban on secondary fattening by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has paradoxically increased the enthusiasm for secondary fattening among farmers, as they anticipate price increases [8]. - **Future Outlook**: There may be a concentration of market supply in the second half of the year due to NDRC's requirements for large enterprises to reduce average weights. The impact of piglet diarrhea in the Southwest during the first quarter is expected to have a minor effect on supply in July and August [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the swine industry, highlighting the interplay between regulatory changes, market dynamics, and cost structures.

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy has stabilized pig prices and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply continues to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose [7]. - Futures contracts are currently at a discount to the spot. The current price increase is seen as a rebound, and in the medium to long term, it is affected by the off - season demand, loose supply - demand, and expected second - fattening sales. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of future reserve policies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 12th, the main 2509 pig futures contract opened flat, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest price was 13,770 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,540 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The total index position increased by 1,217 lots to 166,443 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.01 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - **Policy**: On June 9, Huachu Network announced the notice of the central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage auction on June 11, 2025, with a purchase and storage volume of 10,000 tons. The final transaction price of No. 2 - 4 meat on the 11th was 20.3 - 20.8 yuan/kg [7]. - **Demand**: Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted, the pen utilization rate is relatively high, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment has decreased. With rising temperatures, terminal demand has weakened, and slaughterhouse orders have significantly decreased after the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 143,900 heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous day and 900 heads from a week ago [7]. - **Supply**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter weight remained high as farmers slaughtered normally and those who previously engaged in second - fattening actively sold their pigs due to the inverted price difference [7]. 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - In May, the average market sales price of 15KG piglets was 627 yuan/head, a 4.3% month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of the end of May, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 138 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 53 yuan/head; the profit per pig from purchasing piglets was 93 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/head [11]. - In May, the average national slaughter weight was 129.5 kg, a 0.6 kg increase from April, a month - on - month increase of 0.47% [11]. - From February to May, the average proportion of second - fattening sales was 4.3%, 3.7%, 6.2%, and 2.5% respectively. In May, it was 2.5%, a 3.7 percentage - point month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of the end of May, the price of pig compound feed was 3,289 yuan/ton, basically the same as at the end of the previous month and a 2% year - on - year increase [11]. - The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs in the future is 13.09 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.16 yuan/kg and a 4.38% decrease compared to 13.7 yuan/kg year - on - year. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling is 15.06 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg and a 5.9% decrease compared to 16 yuan/kg year - on - year [11]. - As of the end of May, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.03 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin [11].

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the swine industry, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics, pricing trends, and production strategies for 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - Due to policy impacts, there has been a reduction in secondary fattening and restocking, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to high barn utilization rates, especially in Northeast, Henan, and Shandong provinces [1]. - The average weight of pigs is expected to increase significantly in the first half of 2025, resulting in greater supply pressure [1][6]. - The expected increase in slaughter volume from mid-June to mid-July may slightly alleviate supply pressure, but overall price trends are downward [1][7]. Pricing Trends - Current profitability for commodity pigs is approximately 160 RMB per head, while profitability for piglets ranges from 460 to 480 RMB [1][13]. - The average price of pigs is projected to remain between 14 to 15 RMB per kilogram in the first half of 2025, with industry average costs around 13.5 RMB, leading to an average profit of about 200 RMB per head [2]. - A significant price drop is anticipated, with projections suggesting prices could fall to 13.5 RMB per kilogram by mid-July [17]. Production Strategies - Major enterprises are implementing weight reduction strategies to manage supply and stabilize prices, with a focus on gradual adjustments rather than abrupt changes [8][9]. - The trend of weight reduction is expected to continue through July, with a potential rebound in prices due to reduced supply and seasonal factors [14]. - The expansion of breeding sow capacity among leading enterprises has stabilized, with a slight increase expected in 2024 due to anticipated demand for piglets in 2025 [10]. Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The sentiment among large-scale producers is cautious, with many not willing to expand sow capacity despite current profitability [19][20]. - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with potential price rebounds in late July due to reduced supply and seasonal demand [14][16]. - The possibility of government intervention exists if prices fall below 14 RMB per kilogram, as seen in previous instances [16][17]. Additional Insights - The secondary fattening process has seen a significant impact, with leading enterprises halting sales of pigs intended for this purpose, leading to a stalemate in the market [3]. - The collaboration between breeding farms and fattening companies is increasing, driven by the need for stable piglet supply and cost reduction [24][25]. - The overall industry faces challenges in managing sow capacity, particularly in light of past rapid expansions following African swine fever outbreaks [18]. Conclusion - The swine industry is navigating a complex landscape of supply pressures, pricing challenges, and strategic production adjustments. The focus remains on managing weight reductions and anticipating market fluctuations while considering policy impacts and market sentiment.

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Farming Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine farming industry, particularly the changes in slaughter volumes and pricing dynamics post-Chinese New Year [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Increase in Slaughter Volumes**: - Post-New Year, slaughter volumes have increased due to protein product substitution, fresh-frozen conversion, and higher slaughter concentration [1][3]. - Large-scale designated slaughterhouses benefit from the concentration in farming and the development of the industry chain, leading to significant growth in slaughter volumes, while small slaughter points are declining [1][4]. 2. **Weight Management in Livestock**: - Farming enterprises are increasing the weight at which pigs are sold to reduce costs and improve barn utilization, responding to market demand for heavier pigs [1][5]. - Despite attempts to lower weights, the high demand for heavier pigs has led companies to maintain or even increase slaughter weights [5]. 3. **Policy Impacts on Pricing**: - Policies aimed at increasing pig prices have led large farming companies to gradually reduce slaughter volumes and weights, implementing bans on secondary fattening to reduce inventory [1][6]. - The effectiveness of these policies is still under observation, especially given the potential for speculative behavior among smaller farming groups [1][6]. 4. **Secondary Fattening Regulations**: - The secondary fattening ban aims to prevent disease spread and illegal quarantine practices, with some regions beginning to crack down on violations [1][7][8]. - However, loopholes remain, such as the sale of pigs without proper documentation, which complicates enforcement [8]. 5. **Mother Pig Production Control**: - Some farming companies are starting to control the production capacity of mother pigs, gradually reducing their numbers, although the execution of these policies is still being monitored [1][9]. 6. **Market Dynamics and Price Trends**: - The price trends for pigs in the second half of the year are closely linked to the timing of supply adjustments and slaughter weights [1][11]. - The expectation is for prices to be high but not excessively so, with potential losses in breeding profits if prices drop too low [11]. 7. **Investment Sentiment Among Secondary Fattening Groups**: - Secondary fattening groups are expanding their investments based on policy expectations, believing that future demand will drive prices up [1][12]. - However, the accumulation of inventory from this expansion may offset the supply reductions from larger farming companies [12]. 8. **Regional Control and Market Influence**: - Large farming groups in northern regions have shown significant control over prices, particularly following a reduction in mother pig numbers in social groups [1][14]. - The dynamics of supply and demand are shifting, with increased competition from other sources reducing reliance on single companies [14]. 9. **Challenges for Traditional Slaughter Enterprises**: - Head farming enterprises have made significant inroads into the slaughter business, creating pressure on traditional slaughter companies to adapt [1][20][21]. - The integration of farming and slaughtering operations is becoming more common, leading to reduced costs and improved competitiveness [21][22]. 10. **Emerging Trends in Farming Practices**: - The rise of mother pig leasing models is attributed to local policy restrictions, allowing larger farms to circumvent limitations and expand production [1][25]. Additional Important Insights - The overall weight of pigs being sold by leading farming groups is currently around 125 kg, with a downward trend expected as policies take effect [1][23]. - The average weight of pigs in secondary fattening varies by region, with northern areas showing higher weights compared to southern regions [1][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the swine farming industry, highlighting the interplay between market dynamics, policy impacts, and operational strategies within the sector.

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 06 月 09 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，6 日生猪主力 2509 合约 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Trends Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the swine industry in China, focusing on the trends in pig prices and production dynamics for the second half of 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Slaughter and Weight Trends** - National slaughter volume has decreased from 460,000 to 410,000 heads in early June, with average weights maintained at 126-128 kg [2][3]. - A slight reduction in slaughter and consumption is expected in June, estimated at 3%-4% [1][3]. 2. **Price Expectations** - The price of pigs is anticipated to remain weak in June, with projections indicating fluctuations around 7-8 yuan per kg [1][7]. - If prices drop below 7 yuan per kg, large producers are likely to enter the market aggressively [1][4]. 3. **Impact of Policy Recommendations** - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has suggested reducing pig weights and limiting sow production, but the immediate impact on prices is expected to be limited [3][5]. - Despite recommendations, many producers are reluctant to lower weights due to current profitability [3][5]. 4. **Future Market Dynamics** - A potential surge in secondary fattening is expected around July-August 2025, driven by profit motives and historical trends [5][6]. - The influence of large farming groups on northern pig prices is increasing, which may stabilize price fluctuations [7]. 5. **Cost Pressures** - Rising feed costs due to stable corn prices and poor wheat harvests are anticipated to exert pressure on the swine industry [11][12]. - The cost of raising pigs is expected to increase in the latter half of the year, influenced by raw material prices [12]. 6. **Consumer Behavior and Market Demand** - Mid-range consumer demand appears to be better than expected, with a 35% increase in slaughter volume from January to May attributed to various factors including the shift from frozen to fresh products [10][11]. - The impact of seasonal factors, such as weather and agricultural cycles, is also noted as influencing market dynamics [2][13]. Additional Important Insights - The high prices of piglets are primarily due to pricing strategies and significant deliveries in the first quarter, with expectations of a price drop post-June [8]. - The overall production efficiency in the swine industry has reached a plateau, indicating that future competition will focus more on pricing and volume rather than efficiency improvements [10]. - The execution of policies regarding secondary fattening is inconsistent, with market prices being the primary driver for producer decisions [4][14]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the swine industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between market dynamics, policy impacts, and cost pressures.

根据行业分析师的研究，二次育肥会人为拉长出栏时间，造成阶段性出栏量差异较大，导致出现"助涨 助跌"现象。有头部猪企停止销售二次育肥商品猪 端午节后第一个交易日，A股生猪板块延续涨势，牧原股份连续两个交易日累计上涨近10%，神农集 团、巨星农牧同期上涨超10% 端午节后的第一个交易日，A股生猪板块延续良好势头，牧原股份（002714）(002714.SZ)、神农集团 （605296）(605296.SH)和巨星农牧（603477）(603477.SH)等表现不错。这与猪价稳定的预期有关，猪 价稳定预期又与二次育肥的最新消息有关——一些头部猪企暂停对二次育肥客户出售商品猪。 6月3日上午，《每日经济新闻》记者从牧原股份、神农集团、新希望(000876.SZ)等多家猪企了解到， 至少有两家头部猪企暂停了这一业务，且对商品猪只开屠宰类检疫票。这意味着只能用作屠宰的商品猪 无法进入二次育肥被再次饲养。 所谓二次育肥，是指养殖户购进已达正常出栏体重的生猪，继续育肥至350斤或以上再出售，以赚取价 差和增重利润的短期养殖模式。 生猪板块之所以上涨，和二次育肥的消息有关。有市场消息称，行业接有关部门通知要求控制出栏猪体 重并 ...