饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-05-16 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 5 月 16 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较 上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；广东 14.9-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育 强势进场，部分养殖户预计加快出栏节奏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，猪肉消费转 淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动 进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能 提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险， ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，15 日生猪主力 2509 合约小幅低开后震荡下跌，尾盘收阴，最高 14015 元/吨，最低 13735 元/吨， ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 15 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 期货方面，14 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 14 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of live pigs is increasing and shifting backward, with prices under pressure but limited decline due to the discounted futures price. Egg prices are supported in the short - term but face long - term supply pressure. Oils have rebounded due to improved macro - environment and USDA report, but face supply pressure in the short - term and are expected to decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and strong in the long - term. Corn prices are supported in the short - term and have upward drivers in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On May 14, spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has weakened, and later supply will increase. Demand is limited, and the overall supply - demand game intensifies, with prices fluctuating. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase from May to September 2024, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy is to wait for a rebound and short on the high side [1]. Eggs - On May 14, prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable. Short - term prices are supported by the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, but supply pressure is increasing. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase, and the 06 contract may face pressure if the festival effect is weak. The strategy is to short lightly on the rebound for the 06 contract and be bearish on 08 and 09 contracts [2]. Oils - **Palm Oil**: MPOB April report is neutral - bearish, and May data shows high production and weak exports, with large inventory accumulation pressure in Malaysia. In China, inventory is decreasing but is expected to rise from May. The 07 contract faces pressure at 3900 - 4000 [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA May report is bullish, but the rise of US soybeans is limited. In China, soybean arrivals will increase from May to July, and inventory is expected to accumulate [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: ICE rapeseed rebounds due to improved macro - environment and tight domestic supply. In China, inventory is at a high level, but if supply tightens, inventory is expected to decrease [6]. - Overall, oils rebound in May, but short - term supply pressure limits the rebound height. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The strategy is to short cautiously after a rebound for 09 contracts and consider spreading strategies for bean - palm and rapeseed - palm 09 contracts [7][8]. Soybean Meal - US soybeans are rebounding, but the upside is limited. In China, soybean arrivals will increase from May to July, and prices are expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to increased costs and weather disturbances. The strategy is to short on the high side for the 09 contract in the short - term and go long on the low side in the long - term [8]. Corn - On May 13, prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang were stable. Short - term supply is tight, supporting prices, but the upside may be limited. In the long - term, there are upward drivers, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to be bullish in the long - term, go long at the lower end of the 07 contract range, and consider a 9 - 1 spread positive arbitrage [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview - CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, ICE rapeseed, and egg futures prices changed on May 13. Other varieties such as soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil also had price fluctuations [10].

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 13 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，12 日生猪主力 2509 合约小幅低开后震荡走低，尾盘收阴，最高 13930 元/吨，最低 13855 元/吨，收盘报 13870 元/吨，较 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, pig prices are oscillating strongly. From May 5 - 11, the price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 45 yuan/kg, the pig price in Henan rose from 14.85 yuan/kg last week to 15 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide dropped from 1635 yuan/head last week to 1631 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight increased by 0.18% week - on - week to 126.51KG. In the futures market, the pig futures price is oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract closed at 13925 yuan/ton on May 9, and its basis widened from 940 yuan/ton last week to 1075 yuan/ton [2]. - Looking ahead to May 12 - 18, the spot price of pigs will oscillate and adjust. In the off - season, the group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing, and the actual pressure can only be judged after the selling pressure test. For the futures market, the short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity, with stop - profit and stop - loss in mind. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review (May 5 - 11) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices are oscillating strongly. The supply side shows that large - scale farms have no intention to actively sell and reduce weight in May, and small farmers are reluctant to sell. The demand side has the frozen - fresh price difference supporting regular demand, and the secondary fattening procurement demand has weakened compared to before the festival. The average national slaughter weight increased slightly [2]. - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices are oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract has a certain price range, and the basis has widened [2] 3.2 Market Outlook (May 12 - 18) - **Spot Market**: The price will oscillate and adjust. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume in the off - season has a large impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing [3]. - **Futures Market**: The short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity. The short - term support and pressure levels of the LH2509 contract are 13000 yuan/ton and 15000 yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week, the basis is 1075 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 monthly spread is - 430 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week is 126.51KG. In March, the pork output was 508 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%, and the pork import was 9.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pig Market**: In the short - term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and pig prices fluctuate frequently. In the long - term, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices face a downward risk. The overall trend is weak and volatile [1]. - **Egg Market**: In the short - term, the egg price is under pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure increases, and the far - month valuation is under pressure [2]. - **Oil Market**: After the holiday, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market and international crude oil to fluctuate weakly. In the second quarter, the overall oils are dragged down by the increase in soybean and palm oil arrivals, and may rebound in the third quarter [8]. - **Soybean Meal Market**: In the short - term, the price of soybean meal is expected to decline with the relaxation of supply and demand. In the long - term, due to increased costs and weather disturbances, the price is expected to be strong [9]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, although there is an upward driving force, the upside space is limited due to substitutes [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable compared to the previous day [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Secondary fattening entry enthusiasm weakens, and post - festival demand is weak. Long - term: Supply increases from April to September 2024, and the supply pressure is still large in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: The overall trend is weak and volatile, and short positions should be stopped for profit. Long - term: Wait for a rebound to go short at high prices [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 9, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: After the May Day holiday, demand falls, and supply accumulates. Long - term: High replenishment volume leads to an increasing supply trend [2]. - **Strategy**: 06 contract: Low - level shock. 08 and 09 contracts: Treat with a bearish logic [2]. Oil - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil futures rose [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia: Production increases more than exports, and prices are under pressure. China: There is an expectation of inventory recovery and supply loosening in the second quarter [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean futures are under short - term pressure. In China, the supply pressure is large in the second quarter [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening. In China, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease in the second quarter [7]. - **Strategy**: 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Be cautious about shorting palm oil, and wait and see for soybean and rapeseed oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: On May 8, the US soybean 07 contract rose. The premium quotation is weak [9]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short - term, supply and demand are loosening, and prices are falling. In the long - term, prices are expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors [9]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: Go short at high prices for the 09 contract. Long - term: Go long at low prices [9]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 8, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term: Supply is tight, and prices have support. Long - term: There is an upward driving force, but the upside space is limited [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback to go long, and be cautious about chasing up [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - It shows the prices, price changes of various varieties such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day [11].

Group 1: Core Breeding and Sales - The company operates three core breeding farms and four binary breeding farms, ranking first nationally in Duroc pig breeding for several years [1] - The company focuses on balanced breeding to improve growth speed and reproductive performance, aiming to shorten the time to market and enhance barn utilization [1] - The company anticipates that the current price of piglets will remain stable until October, with a low likelihood of prices falling below cost during the off-season [1] Group 2: Feed Sales and Market Dynamics - The feed distributor primarily sells pig feed to local smallholders, with sales volume around 1,200 tons per month, peaking at 1,400-1,500 tons [1] - The distributor notes a decline in self-breeding households due to stricter environmental regulations [1] Group 3: Pig Raising and Market Conditions - The contract farmer in Sichuan raises 7,000 pigs across two farms, with a total raising fee of approximately 220 yuan per pig [2] - The farmer highlights significant issues with piglet diarrhea affecting growth rates, leading to a desire for heavier pigs among both smallholders and larger farms [2] - A breeding company with a 200-head boar station believes piglet prices will remain high, with traditional seasonal price increases expected [2] Group 4: Trade and Supply Chain - A trading company focuses on pig trade, moving 5-6 trucks of pigs to slaughterhouses daily, with peak volumes reaching 30-40 trucks [3] - The company observes a stable price for piglets, predicting limited price increases but a potential decline after the end of the second fattening phase [3] - Another trading firm has shifted focus to piglet trade and reports increased supply of heavier pigs post-Qingming Festival, while anticipating a potential price drop for piglets [3] Group 5: Fattening and Market Impact - A company with 10,000 fattening pigs has cleared its stock, with an average weight of 120 kg per pig, and a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.5-2.6 [3] - The company indicates that if prices for second fattening pigs drop below 7 yuan/kg, it will consider restocking or fattening pigs [3] - The company believes that second fattening will significantly impact this year's pig market [3]

Core Insights - The swine industry is entering a phase of high-quality development, focusing on improving the productivity of breeding sows and reducing costs while increasing efficiency [1][2] - The supply of pigs cannot be solely predicted by the number of breeding sows; performance improvements must also be considered to estimate supply increments [1] - The presence of speculators in the swine farming industry has increased due to various factors, including financial pressure and high price volatility [1] Group 1: Breeding and Production - In 2024, the pig output in Fujian is projected to be 16.5258 million heads, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, ranking 16th in the country [2] - The breeding sow inventory in Fujian is estimated to be between 700,000 and 750,000 heads, with many new breeding farms established in recent years [2] - A core breeding enterprise emphasizes balanced breeding principles, achieving significant improvements in growth performance metrics for "American" Duroc pigs [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In Jiangxi, the pig output for 2024 is expected to be 30.356 million heads, with a significant portion of production based on a company-plus-farmer model [5] - The second fattening group has become increasingly important, with trade merchants actively participating in this segment [5][6] - The average weight of pigs for second fattening has shifted to 120-125 kg, influenced by breed upgrades and lower feed prices [7] Group 3: Health Concerns - The outbreak of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea (PED) has raised concerns, particularly affecting piglets and potentially leading to significant mortality rates [8] - The impact of common pig diseases is expected to remain low this year, with strict environmental regulations and disease management practices in place [9] - The assessment of production losses due to PED varies, with mainstream estimates suggesting a 5% loss [8]

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 7 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定； 广东 15.4-16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用 率已超过一半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消 费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥 滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节 奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生 产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据， 2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体 重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注 二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动； 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限， 处 ...