上周，面对特朗普政府不断要求降息的压力，美联储再次决定维持利率不变。与此同时，特朗普也签署行政命令，对进口 自多个国家和地区的商品额外征收10%到41%不等的关税，加之美国部分经济及就业数据不佳，以上因素打压市场风险偏 好，美国三大股指上周累计下跌。其中，道指下跌2.92%，标普500指数下跌2.36%，纳指下跌2.17%。 上周国际油价上涨 原油期货方面，上周，美国总统特朗普对俄罗斯发出制裁的警告，引发市场对部分石油贸易可能受影响的担忧。与此同 时，美欧达成贸易协议也提振燃料需求预期，推高国际油价。 纽约油价上周累计上涨3.33%，布伦特油价累计上涨 1.80%。 上周国际金价累计上涨近2% 贵金属期货方面，全球贸易局势仍面临很大不确定性，叠加地缘局势骤然紧张，市场避险情绪高涨， 推动国际金价在上 周累计上涨1.92%。 美国新一轮关税措施本周生效 美国实际关税水平将升至1933年以来最高水平 本周，投资者较为关注的仍然是关税方面的消息。当地时间7日，也就是本周四，美国对部分贸易伙伴重新设定的所谓"对 等关税"税率将生效，给全球贸易局势带来了新的不确定性。惠誉评级的最新报告显示，新关税将使美国实际关税税率升 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts, with Powell indicating no decision has been made regarding a potential rate cut in September [1] - The ADP report showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, contrasting with a previous decrease of 23,000, which negatively impacted gold prices [1] - The second quarter GDP growth was recorded at 3%, exceeding the previous value of 2.4% and the expected -0.5%, further pressuring gold prices [1] - Following the data release, gold prices fell from around $3,330 to a low of $3,267 after the Fed's decision [1] - Analysts suggest that the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped below 50%, although two rate cuts are still anticipated this year if strong data continues [1] - Technically, gold is in a bearish trend, with resistance at $3,310 and support at $3,260 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The EIA reported an increase in crude oil inventories by 7.698 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels, which was higher than the previous decrease of 3.169 million barrels and the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels, negatively affecting oil prices [2] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.724 million barrels to 22.84 million barrels, exceeding expectations and providing support for oil prices [2] - Trump's threat of additional tariffs on Russia if the Ukraine conflict does not end within ten days raised concerns about potential supply tightness, contributing to rising oil prices [2] - A trade agreement framework between the U.S. and South Korea, which includes a reduction in tariffs and significant investments, is expected to boost short-term oil demand [2] - Technically, oil prices have been fluctuating between $64 and $69.50, with a recent breakout above $69.50 indicating a higher probability of further increases, targeting $71.70 [2] Group 3: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index rebounded after a decline, suggesting that the recent pullback may be nearing its end, with potential for further increases [3] - The index is expected to maintain a range-bound movement in the short term, with key support at 40,500 [3] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop, reaching the lowest point since early April, erasing gains from the past three and a half months [4] - There are no signs of a bottoming out in the hourly chart, indicating a potential for further declines [4] - Key support for copper is noted at $4.21, with resistance at $4.47 [4]

铜是全球消费量第三大的金属，仅次于铁和铝。根据美国地质调查局的数据，美国大约有一半的铜依赖进口，其中大部分来自智利。 隔夜，美股三大指数一度跳水下跌，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数跌0.38%，标普500指数跌0.12%，纳斯达克指数涨0.15%。 消息面上，关税迎密集进展。 隔夜，现货黄金市场遭遇了"黑色星期三"，现货黄金价格单日下跌超过1.5%，盘中最低触及3268.02美元，创下6月30日以来新低。今日欧市盘中，黄金 小幅上涨，目前在3310元附近徘徊。 降息预期大变脸！ 首先是，特朗普宣布8月1日起对进口半成品铜等产品征收50%关税。 当地时间7月30日，美国白宫表示，美国总统特朗普签署了一项公告，宣布对几类进口铜产品征收关税。 公告显示，将自8月1日起对进口半成品铜产品（例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管）及铜密集型衍生产品（例如管件、电缆、连接器和电气元件）普遍 征收50%的关税。 当天，在白宫宣布这一关税后，纽约铜价下跌逾18%。 其次是，特朗普称美国将对韩国征收15%关税。 当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普发文称，美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协议。根据协议，韩国将向美国提供3500亿美元，用于 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged, with a rare dissent among members, indicating a divided opinion on current monetary policy [3] - The decision to keep the overnight rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% was made with a 9-2 vote, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes [3] - The Fed's statement highlighted that while the unemployment rate remains low, economic growth has "slowed somewhat" in the first half of the year, which may support future rate cuts if the trend continues [3] Group 2 - Silver T+D prices experienced significant fluctuations, with a current trading price of 8978 yuan/kg, down 2.15% from the opening price of 9153 yuan/kg [1] - The highest price reached during the day was 9153 yuan/kg, while the lowest dipped to 8936 yuan/kg, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1][4] - Key resistance levels for silver T+D are noted at 9153-9235 yuan/kg, with support levels identified at 8800-8936 yuan/kg [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View - On July 30, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell during the session. The trading volume was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and the open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867). The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium increased. The price of spodumene concentrate decreased, while the mica price remained flat. Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production scheduling of ternary materials rose. In June, the production scheduling of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate decreased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production scheduling of energy - storage batteries increased in June. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 12,276 (+0) tons, the social inventory was tight, smelters destocked, and downstream and others restocked. Overall, the commodity sentiment fluctuated greatly, and the exchange's position limit cooled the market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to hold put options [3] Summary by Relevant Data Futures Market Data - **Prices**: The closing prices of the near - month contract, the first - continuous contract, the second - continuous contract, and the third - continuous contract of lithium carbonate futures were 70,260 yuan/ton, 70,600 yuan/ton, 70,580 yuan/ton, and 70,580 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025. Compared with the previous day, the near - month contract decreased by 200 yuan/ton, the first - continuous contract decreased by 240 yuan/ton, the second - continuous contract increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the third - continuous contract increased by 20 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and the open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 12,276 tons, with no change compared with the previous day [3] - **Spreads**: The spreads of near - month - first - continuous, first - continuous - second - continuous, and second - continuous - third - continuous were - 340 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025. Compared with the previous day, the near - month - first - continuous spread increased by 40 yuan/ton, the first - continuous - second - continuous spread decreased by 260 yuan/ton, and the second - continuous - third - continuous spread remained unchanged [3] - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 2,350 yuan/ton on July 30, 2025, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3] Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars/ton on July 30, 2025, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous day. The average prices of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) were 1,140 yuan/ton, 1,775 yuan/ton, 5,675 yuan/ton, and 6,625 yuan/ton respectively, with 0, 0, 75, and 125 yuan/ton changes compared with the previous day [3] - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, coarse - grained), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, micronized), and other lithium compounds had different changes on July 30, 2025, compared with the previous day. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide were - 7,480 yuan/ton, 2,100 yuan/ton, and - 6,316.85 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025, with 250, - 50, and - 107.96 yuan/ton changes compared with the previous day [3] Inventory Data - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory on July 24, 2025, was 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of smelters was 55,385 tons (-2,654 tons compared with the previous week), the inventory of downstream was 42,815 tons (+1,544 tons compared with the previous week), and the inventory of others was 44,970 tons (+1,660 tons compared with the previous week) [3] Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% unchanged, and governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated for an interest rate cut [3] - On July 30, 2025, Pilbara Minerals announced that its spodumene concentrate production in the fourth fiscal quarter was 221,300 tons, and the sales volume reached 216,000 tons [3] - Non - futures company members or customers are restricted in the single - day opening positions of lithium carbonate futures contracts. For example, the single - day opening position in the LC2509 contract shall not exceed 500 lots, and in the LC2510, LC2511, LC2512, LC2601 contracts, it shall not exceed 2,000 lots [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates, with the probability of a rate cut in September reduced to less than half, leading to a rise in the dollar against most currencies and a drop in gold prices by over 1% [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged, with market attention on potential signals for resuming rate hikes, while the current bearish sentiment for USD/JPY is nearing 80% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 33% and bearish sentiment of 67% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 34% and bearish sentiment of 66% [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a near-even split with 49% bullish and 51% bearish sentiment [3] - The Dow Jones Index shows 39% bullish and 61% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index has a bullish sentiment of 59% and bearish sentiment of 41% [3] - The German DAX 40 Index shows a strong bullish sentiment of 72% and bearish sentiment of 28% [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the EUR/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 39% and bearish sentiment of 61% [3] - The EUR/GBP pair shows 41% bullish and 59% bearish sentiment [3] - The EUR/JPY pair has a significant bullish sentiment of 78% and bearish sentiment of 22% [3] - The EUR/AUD pair shows a strong bearish sentiment of 86% with only 14% bullish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 31% and bearish sentiment of 69% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows 32% bullish and 68% bearish sentiment [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 79% and only 21% bullish [3] - The USD/CAD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 56% and bearish sentiment of 44% [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a strong bullish sentiment of 87% and bearish sentiment of 13% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 77% and bearish sentiment of 23% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 62% with only 38% bullish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair shows 40% bullish and 60% bearish sentiment [4] - The NZD/USD pair has a strong bearish sentiment of 78% with only 22% bullish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair shows 40% bullish and 60% bearish sentiment [4] - The USD/CNH pair has a bearish sentiment of 71% and only 29% bullish [4]

早上好，先来看下重要消息。 美国宣布将对进口铜产品征收50%关税，COMEX铜期货价格暴跌近18% 据新华社消息，根据美国白宫网站30日发布的事实清单，美国总统特朗普当日签署公告，从8月1日起将 对进口的铜半成品和铜含量高的衍生品统一征收50%的关税。 周三纽约尾盘，COMEX铜期货价格一度下跌18.03%，报4.6115美元/磅，截至收盘跌17.7%。 特朗普称与韩国达成贸易协议，将对巴西征收50%关税 据央视新闻消息，当地时间7月30日，特朗普发文称，美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协议。根据 协议，韩国将向美国提供3500亿美元，用于由美方拥有并控制的投资项目。此外，韩国还将采购价值 1000亿美元的液化天然气或其他能源产品，并承诺再投资一笔大额资金，用于其本国投资目的。该金额 将在韩国总统李在明两周后访美举行双边会谈时公布。 特朗普表示，美韩双方达成一致，美国将对韩国征收15%的关税。同时，美国不会被征收关税。韩国将 对美全面开放贸易，接受包括汽车、卡车和农产品在内的美国产品。 当地时间7月30日，美国白宫表示，特朗普签署行政命令，对巴西加征40%关税，使总关税额达到 50%。 白宫表示，对巴西产品 ...

每经编辑｜毕陆名 美东时间周三（7月30日），美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，截至收盘，道指跌0.38%，纳指涨0.15%，标普500指数跌 0.12%。交易员预计9月降息的可能性低于50%，之前为60%左右。 热门科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨超2%，博通涨超1%，苹果跌超1%。 富时A50期指连续夜盘收跌0.22%，报13985点。 周三纽约尾盘，CME比特币期货BTC主力合约较周二纽约尾盘跌0.38%，至11.8万美元下方，盘中跌穿11.6万美元。 周三纽约尾盘，离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元报7.2113元，较周二纽约尾盘跌305点，日内整体交投于7.1753~7.2146元 区间。 黄金价格下跌，COMEX黄金期货跌1.72%，报3266.90美元/盎司；10月合约跌1.72%，报3295.60美元。 周三纽约尾盘，COMEX铜期货一度下跌18.03%，报4.6115美元/磅，截至收盘跌17.7%。 国际油价站上70美元，WTI 9月原油期货收报70.00美元/桶，布伦特9月原油期货收报73.24美元/桶。 消息方面，美联储决议继续维持基准利率在4.25%至4.50%区间。鲍威尔认为，政策的不断变化对经济影响仍不确 ...

当被问及美联储理事鲍曼和沃勒在利率决议中的反对票时，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，FOMC大多数成员 认为，鉴于通胀高于目标，维持适度限制的立场是合适的。两位反对者清楚地解释了他们的想法，我们 希望看到这种清晰的思路和表达，而今天我们所有人都看到了这一点。（格隆汇） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged despite internal disagreements and external pressures, reflecting a cautious approach to current economic conditions [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 2 to keep the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - This decision impacts the cost of overnight borrowing among banks, influencing the broader economic funding landscape [1] Group 2: Internal Disagreements - Two Federal Reserve officials, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, opposed the decision, advocating for a rate cut due to controlled inflation and a potentially weakening labor market [1] - This marks the first instance since late 1993 where multiple officials voted against the interest rate decision [1]