Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) experienced a sudden drop against the US dollar (USD) following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to maintain the cash rate at 3.85%, contrary to market expectations of a 25 basis point cut [1][2] Group 1: RBA's Decision and Economic Context - The RBA's decision to keep the cash rate unchanged was unexpected, as most economists anticipated a rate cut [1] - RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicated that the effects of previous rate cuts have not yet fully materialized, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that the RBA's decision was not aligned with the expectations of millions of Australians or the market [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Despite the RBA's stance, the market is pricing in an 87% probability of a rate cut in August, indicating a significant divergence between market expectations and the RBA's position [2] - The AUD/USD exchange rate is currently trading around 0.6510, with technical analysis suggesting a potential recovery in bullish sentiment [2] - The AUD/USD may test key resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.6533, with further gains potentially leading to a test of the eight-month high of 0.6590 [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Price Levels - The AUD/USD is positioned to test the lower boundary of its ascending channel near 0.6500, with a critical support level at the 50-day EMA of 0.6472 [3] - A break below this support could weaken medium-term price momentum, allowing the currency pair to approach a two-month low of 0.6372 [3]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations after six consecutive meetings of rate cuts [1] - CPI inflation rate is expected to rise to the upper end of the monetary policy committee's target range of 1% to 3% by mid-2025, with overall inflation projected to stabilize around 2% by early 2026 [1] - If mid-term inflation pressures continue to ease as anticipated, further reductions in the official cash rate are expected [1] Group 2 - Economic outlook remains highly uncertain, with increasing global policy uncertainty and anticipated tariffs likely to dampen global economic growth, potentially slowing New Zealand's economic recovery and alleviating inflation pressures [1] - Following the interest rate decision announcement, the NZD/USD experienced a short-term fluctuation of nearly 20 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to maintain its current interest rate, with a cautious approach towards future rate cuts, leaving the possibility of easing for later consideration [1] Group 1: Institutional Predictions - Westpac anticipates that the RBNZ will keep interest rates unchanged and maintain a dovish stance, while remaining silent on the timing of any future actions [1] - ANZ forecasts that the RBNZ will hold rates steady, expecting a pause in rate cuts in October, followed by potential cuts in November and early next year [1] - A Reuters survey indicates that the RBNZ is likely to keep rates unchanged, with 16 out of 22 economists predicting a reduction to 3% in the third quarter [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - New Zealand Bank believes the RBNZ will maintain its current rate, as it is in a comfortable position, and market pricing will be a key factor in its decision-making [1] - ASB Bank suggests that the RBNZ will keep rates steady due to rising inflation pressures, emphasizing the need for assurance that short-term inflation will not elevate inflation expectations [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Nomura Securities estimates a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July, and if this occurs, the RBNZ is expected to signal a hawkish shift indicating a wait-and-see approach [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The focus for July 9, 2025, includes various economic data releases and events, particularly in the U.S. and New Zealand [2] - Key Point 2: The U.S. will report API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4, which is crucial for understanding oil supply dynamics [2] - Key Point 3: China's June CPI year-on-year data will be released, providing insights into inflation trends in the region [2] - Key Point 4: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision, which could impact monetary policy outlook [2] - Key Point 5: The U.S. will also release wholesale sales month-on-month data for May, which is important for gauging consumer demand [2] - Key Point 6: EIA crude oil inventory data will be published, including specific figures for Cushing and strategic petroleum reserves, which are vital for market analysis [2] - Key Point 7: The U.S. will conduct a 10-year Treasury auction, with results including the bid-to-cover ratio and yield, influencing bond market sentiment [2] - Key Point 8: The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its monetary policy meeting, which may provide insights into future interest rate decisions [2]

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Economic Events and Data Summary - Japan's May trade balance will be released at 07:50 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 12:30 [1] - RBA Governor Philip Lowe will hold a press conference at 13:30 [1] - Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May will be published at 14:00 [1] - France's May trade balance will be available at 14:45 [1] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June in the U.S. will be released at 18:00 [1] - The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June will be published at 23:00 [1] - The EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report at 00:00 the next day [1] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 4 will be available at 04:30 the next day [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Japan's trade balance for May will be released at 07:50 [1] - Key Point 2: The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 12:30 [1] - Key Point 3: RBA Governor Philip Lowe will hold a press conference at 13:30 [1] - Key Point 4: Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May will be published at 14:00 [1] - Key Point 5: France's trade balance for May will be available at 14:45 [1] - Key Point 6: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June in the U.S. will be released at 18:00 [1] - Key Point 7: The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June will be published at 23:00 [1] - Key Point 8: The EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report at 00:00 [1] - Key Point 9: The API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4 will be reported at 04:30 [1]

Group 1 - The financial market is set to face a series of key events this week, including the approaching deadline for US tariffs, central bank interest rate decisions in Australia and New Zealand, and the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the developments of these events to manage potential market volatility [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the US market returns from a holiday, with a focus on Eurozone data, specifically the July Sentix Investor Confidence Index and May retail sales data, which are expected to show moderate growth [2] - On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to announce an interest rate decision, likely raising rates by 25 basis points to 3.6%, amid a complex economic outlook [3] - On Wednesday, the US tariff deadline is highlighted, with attention on whether the US will reach a tariff agreement or extend the deadline, alongside the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision, which is expected to maintain current rates [4][5] - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release meeting minutes from June, where rates were held steady, and the market will look for insights that could influence expectations for potential rate cuts in September [7] - On Friday, the UK will release May GDP data, following a contraction in April, with market implications for the British pound and potential impacts from recent fiscal challenges [8]

Group A: ETF Holdings - In June, gold holdings changed 19 times, with 11 increases and 8 decreases [3] - The last significant increase in gold prices was influenced by risk aversion, which is expected to continue until a substantial reduction in holdings occurs [3][5] - Recent frequent reductions in holdings indicate that retail investors are cautious about breaking through current price levels, suggesting gold may fluctuate around 3300 [5] Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The gold total ratio approached a critical 60% line in late June, with many institutions taking short positions [6] - The market saw a spike above the upper limit, indicating potential short squeezes, but the overall sentiment has returned to a balanced state [8] Group C: Fundamental Analysis Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's stance remains slightly softened, with market expectations leaning towards potential interest rate cuts in September if inflation eases and employment data weakens [8] - Predictions for upcoming FOMC meetings show a significant probability of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% until late July, with a gradual shift towards lower rates anticipated [8] Major Legislative Proposals - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is under negotiation, with implications for tax cuts, social security reductions, and increased national debt by $3.3 trillion [11][12] - The Senate has passed the bill, but the House's response remains uncertain, which could impact market sentiment [9] Non-Farm Payroll Data - The ADP employment data showed a significant drop, indicating potential weakness in the labor market, which may affect the upcoming non-farm payroll report [12][15] - Expectations for non-farm payrolls are set at 110,000, with variations in the actual data likely to influence gold and dollar valuations [15]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, closing at $3,392.69 per ounce after a high of $3,400.04 and a low of $3,370.57 [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [3] - The dot plot indicates a median interest rate forecast of 3.9% for 2025, with expectations of two rate cuts, while 7 out of 19 officials believe there will be no cuts this year [3][4] - Core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively, indicating a slight increase in inflation outlook [4] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook shows reduced uncertainty but remains at a high level, with GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2025 and 2026 lowered to 1.4% and 1.6% [4] - Current economic growth is estimated between 1.5% to 2%, with the labor market remaining robust and unemployment rates low [6] Communication Strategy - The Federal Reserve plans to review its communication framework by the end of summer, considering improvements to tools like the dot plot [7] - There is a divergence among officials regarding future rate cuts, with 10 expecting at least two cuts this year, while 7 believe there will be no changes [7] Trade and Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced intentions to reach a trade agreement with India [8] - The UN Security Council is set to hold an emergency meeting regarding the Israel-Iran conflict [9] - Reports indicate that Iran is open to talks with the U.S. following Trump's proposal [10] - Israel anticipates U.S. involvement in potential strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities [11] - Russia has threatened intervention if the U.S. engages in the Israel-Iran conflict [12]