倪虹说，城市政府要用足用好房地产调控自主权，适时调整优化房地产政策，支持居民刚性和改善性住 房需求，推动房地产市场平稳运行。加快构建房地产发展新模式，有序搭建基础性制度，在房地产开发 上，做实房地产开发项目公司制。在房地产融资上，推行主办银行制。在商品房销售上，推进现房销售 制，实现"所见即所得"，从根本上防范交付风险。继续实行预售的，规范预售资金监管，切实维护购房 人合法权益。 同时，深化住房公积金制度改革。实施物业服务质量提升行动，探索社区党组织领导下的居委会、业委 会、物业服务企业协调运行新模式，探索"物业服务+生活服务"模式，推动"物业服务进家庭"。（记者 王优玲） 全国住房城乡建设工作会议近日在北京召开。住房城乡建设部部长倪虹强调，着力稳定房地产市场，重 点是：因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，结合城市更新、城中村改造盘活利用存量用地，推动收购存 量商品房用作保障性住房、安置房、宿舍、人才房等。优化和精准实施保障性住房供应，实施房屋品质 提升工程，有序推进"好房子"建设。进一步发挥房地产项目"白名单"制度作用，支持房地产企业合理融 资需求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national housing and urban-rural construction work conference emphasized the completion of housing delivery tasks by 2025 and the need to stabilize the real estate market through a combination of policies [1] Group 1: Housing Delivery and Market Stabilization - The conference set a goal to fully complete housing delivery tasks by 2025 [1] - There is a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and winning the battle for housing delivery [1] - A "policy combination" will continue to be implemented to support these efforts [1] Group 2: Housing Supply and Financing - The approach to housing construction and purchase will be based on demand, with an increase in the supply of affordable housing [1] - The expansion and efficiency of the real estate financing "white list" projects will be promoted [1] - 38 cities will engage in self-renovation and original reconstruction of old housing [1] Group 3: Management and New Development Models - There will be improvements in the management and service efficiency of the housing provident fund [1] - A pilot program will be deepened to allow flexible employment individuals to participate in the housing provident fund system [1] - The conference aims to accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development [1]

【环球网财经综合报道】在12月10日至11日召开的中央经济工作会议上，针对房地产市场提出：着力稳定房地产市 场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等；深化住房公积金制度改革，有 序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 《南华早报》近日发文称，中国房地产市场正在经历一场痛苦的重构。过去的市场改革释放了城市化进程和土地收入 依赖，推动了经济重塑。然而，自2015年至2021年的超级周期后，房价下跌、建设放缓和消费者信心受挫，对经济产 生负面影响。中国试图转向高科技制造业，但历史经验表明，房地产对经济的贡献不可忽视。 报道中也提到，建设中国的任务并未完成，政府推动"好住房"的新政策不仅仅是一句口号，中国正面临从量的短缺向 质的提升的转变，这标志着行业进入新的发展阶段，而非终结。 另据数据显示，部分城市凭借扎实的基本面、精准的政策支持和有效的市场供给，率先展现出趋稳向好的积极态势。 今年1-11月，深圳、南昌等七个城市新房与二手房交易总量同比实现超5%的增长，部分三四线城市也出现新房成交面 积增速正的增长。 ...

今年以来，各地公积金在加大对居民住房支持力度、扩大政策覆盖范围、推进异地互认等方面动作频 频。 各地正在密集优化公积金政策。 近日，石家庄出台公积金新政，提高租房提取额度，年度累计提取金额最高2.4万元/人；增加支付物业 费的提取项目，每人每年最高提取2000元；取消"商转公"不动产权证"两年"的限制条件，并优化房屋套 数认定标准。 根据中指研究院不完全统计，截至12月22日，2025年以来各地公积金优化政策约270条。该机构预计， 2026年政策优化的趋势将延续。 前不久中央经济工作会议召开，将深化住房公积金制度改革纳入明年房地产工作的重点任务。这意味着 这一长期被忽视的民生金融工具正被赋予助力稳定房地产市场、构建房地产发展新模式的新使命，也意 味着2026年公积金政策优化空间将进一步打开。 对此，中国社会科学院研究员、国家未来城市实验室副主任王业强向21世纪经济报道记者表示，这标志 着公积金制度从地方性技术调整升级为国家层面的系统性改革工程。公积金制度的改革潜力，核心在于 打破"属地封闭、功能单一"的结构性桎梏，向多功能、跨区域、全周期的综合保障平台演进，有望成为 构建房地产发展新模式的核心支点。 公积金 ...

2025 年 12 月 22 日 宏观深度研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2026 年房地产展望 宏观深度研究 最近一年走势 相关报告 《宏观点评：中央经济工作会议的六大关键词*夏 磊》——2025-12-12 《2026 年宏观经济展望：变局中的突围*夏磊》— —2025-11-20 《宏观深度研究：从成交结构看购房者行为变化* 夏磊》——2025-10-29 《学习四中全会精神的五点心得*夏磊》—— 2025-10-24 《美联储议息会议点评：一次风险缓释的美联储降 息*夏磊》——2025-09-18 一线城市新房销售面积下降源于土地供应减少。自 2021 年起连续 四年土地供应大幅下滑，市场新增供给明显减少。这一现象在 2025 年延续，2025 年 1-10 月，一线城市月均土地成交建筑规划面积 104 万平方米，较前 4 年月均成交减少 65%。我们预计全年土地成交规 划建筑面积约 1268 万平方米，同比下降 28%。 2026 年，是"十五五"的开局之年。在促进房地产市场止跌回稳的 总基调之下，房地产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that there is significant potential for high-quality development in China's real estate sector, driven by both rigid and improvement housing demands. The urbanization rate for permanent residents is projected to reach 67% by 2024, while the registered population urbanization rate is below 50%, indicating ongoing housing demand [11][12] - A new model for real estate development is being proposed, focusing on controlling supply, revitalizing existing stock, and encouraging the transformation of real estate companies. This includes reforms in development, financing, and sales systems to facilitate a smooth transition from old to new models [12][4] - The report highlights that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate stocks is akin to investing in economic trends. The focus remains on first-tier and select second-tier cities, which are expected to perform better in terms of sales [4][12] Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference Insights - The central government outlines the need for high-quality development in real estate, addressing both rigid and improvement demands. The report notes that many urban residents are still unsatisfied with their housing conditions, indicating a strong potential for improvement demand [11][12] Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.4% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.13 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan primary industries. A total of 71 stocks rose, while 40 fell [13][4] New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the latest week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 208.7 million square meters, a 19.9% increase month-on-month but a 42.7% decrease year-on-year. First-tier cities accounted for 54.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.9% [24][26] - For second-hand housing, 14 sample cities saw a total transaction area of 200.4 million square meters, a 2.0% increase month-on-month but a 24.8% decrease year-on-year [30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the anticipated policy support and the improving competitive landscape. Key stocks to watch include major developers and companies involved in property management and brokerage services [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the valuation reassessment of shopping centers and the new opportunities in the housing market [2]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the transition of the real estate industry from high-speed growth to high-quality development, focusing on product quality and service enhancement while maintaining market balance [2][26]. - Recent data shows a rebound in new and second-hand home transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities reaching 3.095 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 26.3% [2][3]. - The report identifies two major opportunities: the rise of favorable housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises amid a monetary easing cycle, which could lead to a reassessment of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of December 13-19, 2025, new home sales in 34 key cities totaled 3.095 million square meters, up 26.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities increasing by 24.6% and third and fourth-tier cities by 50.5% [3][5]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in December show a 30% year-on-year decline, with first and second-tier cities down 29.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down 38.8% [5][6]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 1.192 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 6.4%, but a year-on-year decline of 32.9% for December [11][12]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of December 13-19, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.28 million square meters of new homes, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83, indicating a slight improvement in inventory management [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights the central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market through three main measures: controlling supply, promoting enterprise transformation, and reforming foundational systems [26][29]. - Local governments, such as Shenzhen and Shandong, are implementing targeted policies to mitigate financial risks and stimulate housing demand through initiatives like "old-for-new" housing exchanges [26][30]. Company Updates - Poly Developments plans to issue 8.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds, while Vanke's proposals for extending medium-term notes were not approved [36][37]. - Yuexiu Property secured a 50 million HKD loan from a bank, with a maximum term of 18 months [36].

12月19日，"2025年福州购房季"活动在温泉公园拉开大幕。活动将持续3天。 本次活动得到了房地产行业的热烈响应，建总地产、榕发地产、福厝地产、福州新榕、新投三江、左海置地、地铁置业、保利发展、厦门建发、首开股份、 国贸地产、绿城集团、麦田、贝壳等知名品牌房企和中介企业参展，现场展示、推介品质楼盘项目，许多参展的新楼盘项目已响应"好房子"新国标，在层 高、空间密度、隔音等方面下足了功夫。 本次活动由福州市住房和城乡建设局与福州日报社联合主办，活动场地融入城市公园绿色空间，面积约3000平方米，50多家房地产上下游企业齐聚，开 创"房地产+新能源+文旅"的沉浸式多元消费新场景。 今年以来，"好房子"成为住房领域的热词。从提出建设安全、舒适、智慧、绿色的"好房子"，到统筹推进好房子、好小区、好社区、好城区的"四好"建设， 房地产发展新模式加快构建。刚刚结束的中央经济工作会议对房地产领域作出了"着力稳定房地产市场"的明确部署，提出因城施策控增量、去库存、优供 给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等，为推动房地产市场高质量发展把舵定向。 为响应住建部推进"四好"建设的号召，本次活动开幕式现场为一批行业优秀企业及 ...

新华社北京12月20日电 题：守牢安全底线，稳妥化解风险——九论学习贯彻中央经济 工作会议精神 "十五五"时期我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化，我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并 存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期，重点领域还存在风险隐患。做好明年经济工作，要遵循 党的二十届四中全会提出的"坚持统筹发展和安全"重要原则，切实提高防范化解风险能 力，标本兼治、综合治理，稳妥做好重点领域风险化解，牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底 线。 当前，我国城镇化正从快速发展期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段 转向存量提质增效为主的阶段，房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化，房地产发展必须适应新 阶段新变化。房地产产业链长、关联度高，必须处理好促发展和防风险的关系。要着力稳定 房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房 等。要深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。要坚持防范风险、强化监管和 创新发展模式相协调，加快构建房地产发展新模式，加快推动房地产业转型升级，建立风险 防控长效机制，扎实推动房地产高质量发展。 做好明年经济工作，要积极有序化解地方政府债务风险。按照科学分类、精准置换 ...

Group 1 - China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) reported a total new contract value of 40,408 billion yuan from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, indicating stable growth in overall order scale [1] - In the construction business, the new contract value reached 37,162 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. The housing construction business contributed 24,622 billion yuan, marking a 3.1% increase, the highest year-on-year growth for the year [1] - The company achieved a significant completion area of 18,261 million square meters, reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year growth, showcasing strong year-end performance [1] Group 2 - CSCEC's contract sales in the real estate sector amounted to 3,246 billion yuan, with a sales area of 1,215 million square meters, alongside acquiring 831 million square meters of land, resulting in a total land reserve of 7,190 million square meters [1] - The company recently secured major projects totaling 10.67 billion yuan, including infrastructure projects in Sichuan and Guangdong, which are expected to enhance its market position [2] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference has provided clear support signals for the real estate and construction sectors, positioning CSCEC favorably to lead industry development and achieve sustainable growth in alignment with national urbanization and economic restructuring strategies [2]