7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程 是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前 经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议通稿中与宏观政策和房地产相关的主要内容如下： 今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门积极作为、攻坚克难，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重 点领域风险有力有效防范化解，民生兜底保障进一步加强，我国经济展现强大活力和韧性。 当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩 固拓展经济回升向好势头。 加快构建新发展格局，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有力促进国内国 际双循环，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。 宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策 ...

中国商报（记者 王彤旭）今年以来，各地 "因城施策"出台相关措施推动房地产市场止跌回稳。其中，多地大力推进"好房子"建设，旨在有力有效稳预 期，激发房地产市场新活力。从统计数据来看，相关政策措施成效明显，上半年房地产市场虽有所波动，但总体上还是朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。 展望下半年，中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶认为，下半年高品质项目入市有望带动核心城市新房市场保持平稳，预计城市之间及项目之间分化 行情将延续，"好城市+好房子"具备结构性机会，而市场全面止跌回稳仍需政策进一步加力。 "好房子"建设政策助力 加快构建房地产发展新模式，是适应我国房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形势，着眼于破解房地产发展难题和防范风险、促进房地产市场平稳 健康发展的治本之策。业内人士表示，推进好房子建设和城市更新，是构建房地产发展新模式的"双引擎"。 5月1日，被业界称为"好房子"国家标准的《住宅项目规范》正式施行。其对层高、隔音等作出强制规定，对"好房子"建设提出了新的标准。这部具有 强制约束力的规范，标志着中国住宅建设从"有没有"转入"好不好"的关键转折。此后印发的《中共中央办公厅 国务院办公厅关于持续推进城市更新行 动的意 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability in China's economic landscape, particularly focusing on employment, enterprises, market stability, and consumer confidence. It highlights the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand and ensure the real estate market stabilizes and recovers [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Real Estate - The Central Political Bureau meeting did not specifically address the real estate market but maintained a consistent tone aimed at stabilizing the sector [3][4]. - The meeting underscored the need for high-quality urban renewal and the supply of "good houses" as crucial measures for stabilizing the real estate market. This follows the Central Urban Work Conference held on July 15, which set a high-level agenda for urban development [4][6]. - Since the beginning of the year, both central and local governments have implemented measures tailored to individual cities, resulting in a noticeable improvement in the real estate market, with new and second-hand housing transactions showing positive growth [4][5]. Group 2: Urbanization and Housing Demand - China's urbanization is transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, with a focus on improving existing housing stock rather than expanding new construction. This shift is expected to support housing demand in key urban areas [5][6]. - The article discusses the potential for significant housing improvement demand due to the aging housing stock, with over 300 billion square meters of existing urban housing needing updates. This presents a substantial opportunity for the real estate sector [7][8]. - The emphasis on high-quality urban renewal and the iterative supply of "good houses" is anticipated to stimulate demand for new homes, creating a new price benchmark and achieving a dynamic balance in the real estate market [8].

内房股今日普跌，截至发稿，远洋集团(03377)跌6.67%，报0.126港元；融创中国(01918)跌5.17%，报 1.65港元；富力地产(02777)跌2.08%，报0.94港元。 消息面上，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，会议指出，落实好中央城市工作会议精神，高质量开展 城市更新。中泰证券（600918）此前指出，中央城市工作会议强调城市发展已从"大规模增量扩张阶 段"进入"存量提质增效阶段"，提出了以推动城市高质量发展为主题、以坚持城市内涵式发展为主线、 以推进城市更新为重要抓手的总体部署。会议提出"加快构建房地产发展新模式，稳步推进城中村和危 旧房改造"，但并未出台强刺激举措，相关表述较为审慎中性。 美银证券此前发表研究报告称，预期今年上半年的行业盈利将同比下降25%，但由于存货减值幅度收 窄，预计全年盈利下降幅度将收窄至13%，又预计上半年开发利润率将下降1个百分点，平均值为 11%。该行计及第二季行业表现逊于预期后，将开发商今年的合同销售预测下调5%，意味着在高基数 下，下半年将同比下降16%。该行预计，受到利润率复苏所支持，该行预计2027财年内房行业盈利将会 复苏，但由于合同销售的复苏不 ...

Economic Data - The U.S. trade deficit in June narrowed to $86 billion, a decrease from previous figures[4] - India's preparation for potential U.S. tariffs ranging from 20% to 25% indicates significant trade tensions[4] - The IMF has raised China's economic growth forecast for this year by 0.8 percentage points[4] Market Performance - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong's stock market increased by 118% year-on-year in the first half of the year[4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 5.66 basis points to 3.867%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 8.75 basis points to 4.322%[4] Index Movements - The Nasdaq index closed at 21,098.29, down 0.38%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,632.99, down 0.46%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,524.45, down 0.15%[5]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安在学习时报头版撰文称：要加大财政逆周期调节力度。 要加快发行和使 用超长期特别国债。 要统筹运用政策工具，支持传统产业改造提升。 要支持新兴产业发展壮大。 要以 促消费为重点支持扩大内需。 要出台实施重点领域贷款财政贴息政策。 要支持加快构建房地产发展新 模式。 ...

财长蓝佛安： 以促消费为重点支持扩大内需，进一步释放国内市场潜力 金十数据7月30日讯，财政部部长蓝佛安在学习时报刊文表示，以促消费为重点支持扩大内需，进一步 释放国内市场潜力。不断完善支持养老、育幼、文化、旅游等服务消费的政策体系。完善免税店政策， 推动免税商品零售业务健康有序发展。强化财政与金融政策协同联动，出台实施重点领域个人消费贷款 和服务业经营主体贷款财政贴息政策，更好满足消费需求。持续推进"两重"项目建设。支持加快构建房 地产发展新模式，实施城市更新行动，促进房地产市场持续健康发展。 ...

房地产行业 作者: 中诚信国际 企业评级部 侯一甲 027-87339288 yjhou@ccxi.com.cn 杜志英 027-87339288 zhydu@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 贺文俊 027-87339288 wjhe @ccxi.com.cn 市场跟踪 专项债土地收储加速，行业延续止跌回稳 态势——2025年 6月房地产市场跟踪 "降准降息、公积金贷款利率下调"三箭 齐发，金融政策协调巩固行业企稳态势— —2025年 5月房地产市场跟踪 楼市"小阳春"如期而至，"好房子"时 代来临——2025年4月房地产市场跟踪 政府工作报告首提"稳住楼市"，坚持在发展 中逐步化解风险——2025年3月房地产市场 跟踪 法拍房成交率有望提升，助力新房市场企 稳——2025年1月房地产市场跟踪 市场交易明显升温，政策薪火持续加力 ——2024年12月房地产市场跟踪 房价现企稳迹象，政策加速落地继续保驾 护航——2024年11月房地产市场跟踪 重启货币化安置和土储专项债：止跌回稳 转向信号下的老路新履——2024 年 10 月房 地产市场跟踪 美联储降息与房地产新政：市场活力的新 希望——2024年 9月房 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent Central Urban Work Conference marks a significant shift in China's urbanization strategy, moving from rapid growth to stable development and from large-scale expansion to quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [4][10] - The conference highlights the transition of urbanization from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, emphasizing quality, efficiency, and competitiveness over mere scale and speed [4][5] - The urban development is shifting from large-scale incremental expansion to a focus on optimizing existing resources and enhancing urban functions through new technologies and models [4][10] Group 2 - The concept of "group-style networked" development for modern urban clusters and metropolitan areas is introduced, emphasizing concentrated and efficient development around central cities [5][6] - The article outlines that the 19 urban clusters will serve as major growth poles, with population and industry concentration primarily occurring in these areas, while other regions will pursue differentiated development based on local conditions [6][12] - The "networked" aspect stresses the importance of connectivity between urban clusters through modern transportation and digital networks, facilitating the flow of economic factors [8][12] Group 3 - The conference reiterates the strategic role of county towns in urbanization, highlighting their importance in ensuring food security, ecological safety, and as key carriers for rural population migration [10][12] - The dual-track urbanization strategy aims to balance development between urban clusters and county towns, preventing excessive population concentration in mega-cities while promoting rural revitalization [12][16] Group 4 - A new model for real estate development is proposed, focusing on the classification, revitalization, and integration of existing housing resources, addressing the issue of idle and inefficient real estate [13][14] - The demand for affordable housing is driven by the urbanization of agricultural migrants, necessitating a better alignment between supply and demand in the housing market [14][16] - The article suggests implementing refined policies tailored to different cities to stimulate the market and enhance the utilization of existing housing stock [16]

Group 1 - The central theme of the recent "Central Urban Work Conference" emphasizes the importance of urban development for improving people's lives, highlighting the slogan "People's city built by the people, for the people" [2][9] - The conference marks a significant decision-making event in China's urban development, with only two such meetings held under the central government since the reform and opening up [2][3] - Urbanization in China has been unprecedented in scale and speed, with 694 cities and 27 cities projected to exceed a GDP of 1 trillion yuan in 2024, contributing significantly to the national economy [3][4] Group 2 - The improvement of urban infrastructure and public services is a key focus, with an emphasis on enhancing living conditions, education, and healthcare, particularly in county-level cities [4][6] - The housing sector has seen remarkable achievements, with over 430 billion square meters of urban housing valued at approximately 430 trillion yuan, representing a significant portion of urban residents' wealth [6][7] - A large-scale urban housing security system has been established, providing over 68 million units of affordable housing, addressing the housing needs of 170 million people [7] Group 3 - Urban development goals include innovation, livability, beauty, resilience, civilization, and intelligence, reflecting the aspirations of the people for a better life [5][6] - The urbanization rate has increased from 53% in 2012 to 67% in 2024, with a projected 2 billion rural residents expected to migrate to urban areas, indicating a shift towards a more integrated urban-rural development model [8][9] - The construction industry plays a crucial role in urban development, with a significant workforce of over 70 million, primarily composed of migrant workers, contributing to the urban landscape [9][10]