Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the 3900-point mark, with a notable increase in trading activity, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1][3] - The three major indices are all in the green, with the Shanghai Composite up by 0.3%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.31%, and the ChiNext Index slightly up by 0.06% [3] Sector Performance - Semiconductor and storage chip sectors are particularly strong, with companies like Huahong Semiconductor rising over 15% and ZhiChun Technology hitting the daily limit [3] - The storage chip sector is also performing well, with Jiangbolong increasing by over 17%, and other companies like Baiwei Storage and Xiangnong Chip Innovation nearing 10% gains [3] - The energy metals sector is benefiting from the recovery of the new energy industry chain, with companies like Boqian New Materials hitting the daily limit and others like Yongxing Materials and Huayou Cobalt rising nearly 7% [3] Market Dynamics - There is a rotation of funds from large financial sectors, which are experiencing declines, to more growth-oriented sectors like technology and new energy, indicating a normal market rotation rather than a downturn [4] - The increase in trading volume, reaching 136.98 billion, suggests that market sentiment is gradually warming, with over 2900 stocks rising, reflecting broad market participation [3][4] - The focus on technology (semiconductors and storage) and new energy industry chains aligns with long-term investment logic, emphasizing the importance of following industry trends rather than chasing short-term speculative opportunities [4]

Core Insights - The A-share new energy sector experienced a strong rally on September 29, with lithium battery-themed ETFs leading the gains among stock ETFs, reflecting a significant market interest in this segment [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The largest battery ETF saw an intraday increase of over 4%, reaching a nearly three-year high, and closed with a gain of 4.87%, with a trading volume exceeding 1.5 billion yuan [1][3] - Multiple new energy-related ETFs, including those focused on energy storage and electric vehicles, also recorded gains of over 4% on the same day, indicating a broad-based rally in the new energy sector [2][3] - The electric equipment industry index outperformed all other sectors with a nearly 20% increase in September, significantly ahead of the second-placed electronics sector by nearly 10 percentage points [5] Group 2: Industry Drivers - The recent surge in the new energy sector is attributed to a combination of policy incentives and technological breakthroughs, with a notable focus on solid-state battery advancements [2][7][8] - The global push for carbon neutrality and the increasing international demand for Chinese new energy technologies are creating substantial growth opportunities for the industry [7][8] - Fund performance in the new energy sector has been strong, with several battery-themed index funds showing net value increases exceeding 30% in September, outperforming their peers [6] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the new energy sector will continue to evolve positively, with expectations of significant changes by 2026, particularly for leading companies with technological and scale advantages [9] - The market is shifting towards growth-oriented investments, moving away from a focus solely on certainty, indicating a potential for further investment opportunities in high-growth sectors [9] - For ordinary investors, a long-term holding strategy in broad-based ETFs is recommended, unless there is a strong conviction in specific sectors offering excess returns [9]

Core Insights - The new energy industry chain experienced a significant surge, with the ChiNext New Energy ETF (Hua Xia, 159368) rising by 4.19% and key holdings such as Hunan YN Energy increasing over 17% [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released action plans to support the growth of the new energy sector, particularly focusing on solid-state battery materials and advanced technology research [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (Hua Xia, 159368) is the largest ETF tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, with a scale of 1.009 billion as of September 26, 2025 [1] - The ETF has the highest trading volume, averaging 65.75 million in daily transactions over the past month [1] - The ETF's holdings include 51% in energy storage and 23.6% in solid-state batteries, aligning with current market trends [1] Group 2: Government Initiatives - Eight departments issued the "Nonferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to accelerate the application verification of high-end products like solid-state batteries [1] - The MIIT also published the "Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry Stabilization Growth Action Plan (2025-2026)" to support foundational research in cutting-edge technologies, including solid-state batteries [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of nickel ore in the fourth quarter still has significant room for release, but attention should be paid to possible policy changes in Indonesia [7]. - The stainless - steel industry in the nickel - iron - stainless - steel chain is supported by nickel - iron prices. The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory, but overall, it still faces great pressure. Concerns remain about potential inventory accumulation after holidays [7]. - In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material side is supported by tight supply, but the demand increase may be limited [7]. - For primary nickel, domestic production capacity still has a release plan. After de - stocking in the first half of the year due to some demand stimulation, recent inventory accumulation has begun to appear, dragging down nickel prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of nickel ore, premium, and primary nickel inventory should be focused on. If the supply is loose and primary nickel inventory accumulates, the price center will move further down [7]. - The price range for nickel is expected to be between 105,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price/Base - spread/Spread/Ratio - Nickel price is affected by factors such as nickel - ore premium, cobalt export ban, inventory changes, and macro - sentiment. The price has experienced fluctuations including over - decline, recovery, and weak - range oscillations [13]. - For nickel base - spreads, spreads, and ratios, relevant charts show historical data trends, which can be used to analyze market conditions [15][17][19]. - For stainless - steel prices, ratios, and spreads, relevant charts show the trends of spot premium, contract spreads, and the ratio of nickel to stainless - steel, providing a basis for price analysis [23][25][27]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has been continuously increasing, exceeding 230,000 tons by the end of September, reaching the highest level in recent years, with significant Chinese brand deliveries. The inventory accumulation of Shanghai nickel is relatively less obvious, with the current social inventory at around 40,000 tons [9][30]. - **Stainless - steel**: The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory levels. The current stainless - steel inventory has decreased to around 980,000 tons, with the 300 - series dropping to 620,000 tons [9][33][37]. 3.3 Nickel Ore - **Policy**: Indonesia has strengthened the role of the "government's hand" through systems such as SIMBARA and MOMS, and adjusted nickel - product royalties. The Philippines' plan to ban nickel - ore exports was revoked in mid - June [40][41]. - **Supply and Demand**: From January to August 2025, China's nickel - ore imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 26.1335 million wet tons, and port inventory was about 9.71 million wet tons. By the end of September, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton [5][44]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: Refined - nickel production capacity has been continuously expanding, with a monthly production capacity of around 54,000 tons by the end of August. The production using externally sourced raw materials is mostly unprofitable, while integrated MHP production is profitable. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by about 26% year - on - year to 260,000 tons. The cumulative imports increased by 178% year - on - year to 159,000 tons, exports increased by 69% year - on - year to 122,000 tons, and net imports were 37,000 tons [5][47]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption has increased significantly year - on - year, exports have slowed down, and the domestic electroplating demand has increased relatively obviously [50]. - **Balance**: With the continuous release of production capacity and the weakening of internal - external price differences, the surplus has expanded [9]. 3.5 Nickel - Iron - Stainless - Steel - **Supply**: Affected by the rising nickel - ore prices and average stainless - steel demand, the nickel - iron smelting profit has been squeezed, and the domestic operating rate has continued to decline. From January to August, the cumulative production decreased by 8% year - on - year to 20,000 nickel tons. The nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia has slightly expanded, and production has been continuously released, with the cumulative production from January to August increasing by 17% year - on - year to 1.113 million nickel tons [5][53]. - **Production and Sales of Stainless - Steel**: From January to August, China's cumulative stainless - steel production increased by 6% year - on - year to 26.33 million tons, and Indonesia's cumulative production increased by 4% year - on - year to 3.23 million tons. From January to August, cumulative imports decreased by 23% year - on - year to 1.02 million tons, cumulative exports increased by 3% year - on - year to 3.36 million tons, and net exports were 2.35 million tons. From January to August, stainless - steel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 22.115 million tons [5][6][58]. - **Profit**: Nickel - iron prices first declined and then rose, but generally remained at a low level in the past three years. Chromium - iron prices have strengthened periodically since the beginning of the year, and the theoretical immediate profit has been mostly in the red [61]. 3.6 New Energy - **Raw Materials**: The marginal production scheduling of ternary materials has increased, and the cobalt ban has boosted the demand for MHP, with the spot price strengthening. From January to August, the supply of Indonesian MHP increased by 56% year - on - year to 285,000 nickel tons, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 38% year - on - year to 115,000 nickel tons. From January to August, MHP imports increased by 20% year - on - year to 220,000 nickel tons, and nickel - matte imports decreased by 12% year - on - year to 270,000 tons. From January to August, domestic nickel - sulfate production decreased by 16% year - on - year to 210,000 nickel tons, and imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 160,000 tons [5][10][78]. - **Production**: In 2025, from January to September, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year - on - year at 620,000 tons; from January to September, the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 11% year - on - year to 567,000 tons; from January to August, the production of ternary power cells increased by 16% year - on - year to 242 GWh, the production of ternary batteries increased by 15% year - on - year to 255.7 GWh, the installed capacity decreased by 10% year - on - year to 77.3 GWh, and the inventory decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year to 30.34 GWh [6][10][90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The near - term trading logic of nickel and stainless - steel futures is mainly the uncertainty of nickel ore supply, while the medium - to - long - term trading logic focuses on the fundamentals, with the demand increment in the new energy field being more important [2][3][6]. - The current nickel and stainless - steel basis and monthly spreads are stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities [8]. - The nickel and stainless - steel futures markets showed a weak and volatile trend this week, affected by factors such as macro - economic indicators, nickel ore disturbances, and the overall macro - economic environment [12]. - The profits of the upstream and downstream of the nickel industry chain are relatively under pressure, but there is still support at the bottom [35]. - The supply of the nickel industry chain is relatively stable, and the demand is weak overall, with some growth in the new energy field and stable demand in the stainless - steel sector [38][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The nickel futures market was mainly volatile this week, with limited actual adjustments in the fundamentals. Concerns in the nickel ore sector focus on government sanctions, cost increases after environmental optimization, and potential lower - than - expected quota approvals. The new energy sector still provides support, and the price of MHP and nickel salts has increased due to the extension of the cobalt export ban in Congo. The price of nickel iron has declined recently, and the stainless - steel market has entered a phase of inventory accumulation [2]. - The near - term trading logic is dominated by the uncertainty of nickel ore supply, and the long - term trading logic focuses on the fundamentals, especially the demand increment in the new energy field [3][6]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The current nickel and stainless - steel basis and monthly spreads are stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities [8]. - The previous strategies of buying the SHFE nickel 2511 futures contract and the SHFE nickel 2511 call option 130000 have been exited [8]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of SHFE nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [8]. - For inventory management, it is recommended to short SHFE nickel futures and sell call options to hedge risks. For procurement management, it is recommended to buy SHFE nickel forward contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [9]. - The predicted price range of stainless steel is 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton, and similar risk - management strategies are recommended for stainless - steel inventory and procurement [9][10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Congo is expected to extend the cobalt export ban and announce the total export quotas for 2025 and 2026. The Indonesian forestry working group took over the PT Weda Bay Nickel mine, and the Indonesian Energy Ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The Indonesian APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, and Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [11]. - **Negative Information**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist, and the spot trading of stainless steel is relatively weak [11]. - **Neutral Information**: Indonesia will approve the 2026 nickel ore quota in October [11]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The nickel and stainless - steel futures markets showed a weak and volatile trend this week. The price of nickel was mainly affected by macro - economic indicators and nickel ore disturbances, and the price of stainless steel was restricted by the overall macro - economic environment. The net short positions of the main contracts decreased before the holiday, and the market sentiment was cautious [12]. - **Fund Flows**: The net positions of key profitable seats decreased, and some institutions began to reduce their positions. The inflow of funds into stainless - steel futures was more cautious, with some funds opening short positions at high prices and reducing positions for observation during the week [13]. - **External Market**: The external market trend was basically consistent with the domestic market. The nickel ore disturbances in Indonesia and the fluctuation of the US dollar index affected the market. The inventory of LME nickel was difficult to deplete, suppressing the upward space [28]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - The profits of the upstream and downstream of the nickel industry chain are relatively under pressure. The profit space of producing electrolytic nickel by different processes is meager, and some pyrometallurgical production lines are in a state of continuous loss. The profit of selling MHP and nickel sulfate in the new energy integrated production chain is still positive, and the profit of the nickel - iron end has improved but has not turned positive [35]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain is relatively stable. The inventory of nickel ore raw materials at domestic ports is at a high level, and the production of domestic enterprises has returned to normal. The production of domestic nickel iron and Indonesian nickel iron shows a seesaw effect, and the production of nickel iron and stainless steel may be slightly stronger in the future [38]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The overall demand of the nickel industry chain is weak. The demand in the new energy field has some growth momentum due to the increase in new - energy vehicle sales. The demand in the stainless - steel sector is stable, with an expected increase in demand during the peak season in September and October. Attention should be paid to the impact of EU stainless - steel tariffs on exports [42]. 3.5.3 Balance Interpretation - In the short - term supply - demand balance, the supply side is relatively abundant, with continuous production expansion in Indonesia and China. The main variable in the supply - demand balance lies in the new energy demand. The marginal increment of stainless - steel demand is limited, and the marginal increment of the new energy sector has also weakened recently. Attention should be paid to the performance of stainless steel during the peak season and the development of the new energy sector [50].

Group 1 - The domestic energy storage cell prices are on the rise, with major manufacturers increasing product prices, which is beneficial for the new energy industry chain [1] - Zhongrong Electric has made progress in overseas markets, with mass production in Germany and orders for pure electric platforms in Sweden, expanding into the wind and solar storage sector, and high demand expected in the second half of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs trading data shows that the technology sector in the Chinese stock market is leading, with the battery sector rising due to the influence of CATL, and strong demand anticipated [1] Group 2 - GF Securities indicates that the lithium battery industry is seeing a continuous recovery in profitability as leading companies like CATL and BYD reduce their debt ratios through cost and cash flow advantages [2] - Huatai Securities notes that the solar industry is experiencing a rush due to U.S. policy, with solar LCOE being significantly more economical than traditional energy due to technological cost reductions, although rising PPA prices may temporarily weaken competitiveness [2]

Core Viewpoint - Anson Resources has signed a battery-grade lithium carbonate purchase agreement with LG Energy Solution, leading to a nearly 25% increase in its stock price [1][2]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement stipulates that Anson Resources will supply 4,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate annually to LG Energy Solution starting in 2028 [1]. - This supply represents approximately 40% of the initial annual production capacity of Anson's Paradox Basin project, which is estimated to be around 10,000 tons [2]. - The initial term of the agreement is five years, with an option to extend for an additional five years [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, Anson Resources' stock price saw a peak increase of 24.7%, marking the strongest single-day gain in over two months, while the ASX 200 index fell by 0.6% during the same period [2]. - The transaction is expected to support Anson Resources' debt financing efforts during the final investment decision phase [2]. Group 3: Industry Context - Lithium, a key raw material for electric vehicle batteries, has faced a prolonged price slump due to slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles [2]. - This agreement underscores the importance of battery technology as a critical component within the new energy industry chain [2].

Core Insights - Four projects related to energy storage integration manufacturing, battery cell production, optical materials, and modern logistics have been successfully signed in Rudong, with a total investment exceeding 4 billion yuan [1] - The projects are expected to enhance the development of new energy, high-end manufacturing, and green economy industries in Rudong [1] Investment Details - The total investment for the energy storage system integration manufacturing and comprehensive energy service base project is 1 billion yuan, with major investors including Chaowei Power, Guochi Zhichu, and Zhongze Energy [1] - The project plans to establish advanced energy storage integration intelligent manufacturing production lines, aiming to produce 10,000 mobile energy storage systems, 10,000 commercial and industrial energy storage systems, and 100,000 PACK and energy storage modules [1] Economic Impact - Once fully operational, the projects are expected to achieve annual taxable sales of 3 billion yuan, thereby extending the energy storage industry chain in Rudong [1] - The initiatives will promote the formation of a complete ecosystem from battery cell manufacturing, system integration to end-user applications [1]

Core Viewpoint - The fourth meeting of the China-Poland Intergovernmental Cooperation Committee highlighted significant developments, particularly China's decision to relax export restrictions on key minerals and dual-use items, which is expected to enhance Poland's position in the European supply chain [1][3]. Group 1: Key Minerals and Economic Impact - Key minerals such as nickel, lithium, and rare earths are crucial for the new energy vehicle and battery industries, and Poland aims to strengthen its role in the European new energy supply chain [3]. - The relaxation of export restrictions is seen as a breakthrough for Poland, potentially leading to increased trade numbers and domestic processing and employment opportunities [3][5]. - Poland's acquisition of mineral resources is expected to provide it with greater negotiating power within the EU, especially in ongoing disputes over energy and mineral distribution [3][5]. Group 2: China-Poland Cooperation and Strategic Implications - The mineral export relaxation is mutually beneficial, as it stabilizes the China-Europe supply chain and enhances bilateral relations, countering discussions in Europe about reducing dependency on Chinese products [5][19]. - The "China-Europe Railway Express" has become a focal point of cooperation, with Poland's geographical position making it a key transit hub for goods moving from China to Europe [5][9]. - Both parties have agreed to optimize customs efficiency and increase transport capacity, which could alleviate financial pressures on businesses by reducing shipping times [7][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context and Security Concerns - The ongoing Ukraine conflict has heightened security concerns for Poland, which is directly affected by the war, leading to discussions on defense capabilities and military technology [11][12]. - Poland views China as a significant player that can maintain communication with Moscow, providing a potential avenue for conflict resolution [14][19]. - The EU's reaction to the China-Poland cooperation indicates concerns about Poland's rising influence within the EU, as it gains strategic resources that could enhance its bargaining power [16][19]. Group 4: Regional Reactions and Future Prospects - Eastern European countries have responded positively to Poland's actions, seeing it as a potential model for their own bilateral engagements with China [19]. - The EU has emphasized that all bilateral cooperation must align with EU rules, reflecting a cautious approach to Poland's growing autonomy in negotiations [19]. - China's strategic choice to highlight its cooperation with Poland serves to position itself as a collaborative partner in Europe, rather than an external disruptor [19].

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - Huayun Titanium Industry has over 20 years of experience in the titanium dioxide and fine chemical sectors, focusing on production processes and circular economy operations [2][5] - The company is open to evaluating opportunities for transformation that align with its strategic goals and can create synergies [3] Group 2: Automation and Technology - The company has gradually introduced automation equipment in key production processes to enhance efficiency and ensure safety [4] - Future plans include exploring intelligent equipment applications to achieve higher operational efficiency and sustainability [4] Group 3: Mining and Resource Management - As of September 2025, the company completed the registration for the acquisition of Guangnan Chenxiang Mining, with mining procedures currently in progress [5] - The company is actively advancing exploration work related to its mining assets in Qinghe County, Xinjiang [8] Group 4: Market Position and Financial Performance - The company has not signed any direct orders with Ningde Times as of now [6] - The decline in net profit in the first half of the year is attributed to global economic conditions and intensified market competition, but the company has implemented measures to maintain production and sales growth [8] Group 5: Innovation and Digital Transformation - The company is gradually advancing digital transformation in its sales system to enhance communication with customers and improve operational efficiency [8] - There are currently no holdings in high-tech companies, but the company is focused on leveraging its core business advantages in the upstream materials segment of the new energy industry [7]