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玉米淀粉日报-20250515
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 13:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. corn report is neutral, with planting progress accelerating. The U.S. corn is oscillating at the bottom, and the reduction of Sino - U.S. tariffs provides strong support at the bottom. Chinese corn and starch prices are affected by multiple factors such as imports, domestic supply and demand, and policy expectations. Corn prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, while starch prices are expected to have limited downside in the short - term [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures盘面**: For corn futures (C2601, C2505, C2509) and corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2505, CS2509), prices mostly declined on May 15, 2025. Trading volumes and open interests also showed different degrees of changes, with some contracts having increased open interests and others having decreased trading volumes [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed little change, with only a 10 - yuan increase in Zhucheng Xingmao. Starch spot prices were mostly stable, except for a 20 - yuan decrease in Hengren Gongmao. Basis values for both corn and starch varied by region [3]. - **Spreads**: Corn and starch inter - delivery spreads and cross - variety spreads also changed. For example, the C01 - C05 spread decreased by 16 yuan, and the CS01 - CS05 spread decreased by 12 yuan [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The U.S. corn is oscillating at the bottom. Chinese import tariffs on U.S. corn and sorghum have changed, and foreign corn import profits are acceptable. Domestic corn supply is low, and although downstream demand is weak, prices are expected to rise in the short - term. In the medium - to - long - term, policy - related grain auctions are expected after the price reaches a certain level [5][7]. - **Starch**: Corn starch inventory decreased this week. The price is mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking. In the medium - to - long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a loss state for a long time, but profits will be repaired. The short - term downside of 07 starch on the futures market is limited [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Domestic 07 corn is expected to oscillate narrowly, and short - term long positions can be attempted [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a position of buying spot and shorting 07 corn, and widen the spread between 07 corn and starch when it is low, with oscillating operations [13]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategies suggest that enterprises with spot positions sell corn call options. Information on two option contracts (C2509 - P - 2380.DCE and C2507 - P - 2360.DCE) is provided, including their closing prices and price changes [14]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as those showing corn spot prices in different regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spreads, corn starch 9 - 1 spreads, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 09 contract spreads [16][19][21].
先锋期货期权日报-20250515
Xian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 09:04
先锋期货期权日报 2025-5-15 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下,我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任,投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下,我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | ao2506 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.6% | 9 | 4.1% | 2 | | sn2506 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.1% | 27 | 1.2% | 44 | | ps2507 | 2.2% | 3 | 2.1% | 2 | 2.5% | 10 | | eb2506 | 2.2% | 4 | 1.8% | 6 | 2. ...
Homebuilder Stock On the Move Before Earnings
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2025-05-14 18:21
Although earnings season is winding down, there are still a few reports next week worth monitoring. Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) will announce its latest quarterly report after the close on Tuesday, May 20. Analysts expect the homebuilding name to post earnings of $2.86 per share on revenue of $2.5 billion, representing a decline of 15.4% and 11.8%, respectively, from the same quarter last year. Over the last two years, Toll Brothers stock only closed three post-earnings sessions lower, though that includes ...
先锋期货期权日报-20250514
Xian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 09:03
先锋期货期权日报 2025-5-14 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下,我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任,投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下,我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | ps2507 | 2.4% | 1 | 2.1% | 1 | 3.3% | 11 | | sn2506 | 2.4% | 2 | 1.2% | 24 | 1.5% | 44 | | eb2506 | 2.2% | 3 | 1.8% | 6 | 4.1% | 4 | | br2506 | 2.2% | 4 | 1.9% | 5 | 2. ...
UnitedHealth Group Stock Sinks to 5-Year Lows
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2025-05-13 14:44
Core Insights - UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) has suspended its 2025 guidance due to unexpected expenditure issues, leading to a significant drop in stock price, down 12.8% to $330.25, with a five-year low of $322.90 reached earlier [1] - CEO Andrew Witty is stepping down for personal reasons, contributing to the negative sentiment surrounding the company [1] Stock Performance - The stock is experiencing its sixth consecutive loss, with a 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 14, indicating it is in "oversold" territory [2] - UNH shares have declined by 36% in 2025, yet analysts have not issued any bearish notes or downgrades, with 22 out of 24 analysts maintaining a "buy" or better rating [3] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - The consensus 12-month price target for UNH is $549.91, representing a 70% premium over the current price, suggesting potential pressure from future bearish notes [3] Options Market Activity - There is a strong preference for long calls in the options market, with a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.90, nearing an annual high [4] - Today's options trading volume is significantly high, with over 120,000 calls and 70,000 puts exchanged, which is eight times the average intraday amount [5] - The May 300 put is the most popular option, while the May 360 call is also seeing notable activity, indicating a strategic interest in options trading [5]
玉米淀粉日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 09:34
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/5/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2253 | -20 | -0.89% | 25,687 | 36.80% | 58,714 | -4.61% | | C2505 | | 2310 | -15 | -0.65% | 1,537 | -66.30% | 2,935 | -67.96% | | C2509 | | 2356 | -19 | -0.81% | 148,693 | -1.38% | 427,914 | 1.36% | | CS2601 | | 2677 | -33 | -1.23% | 1,029 | 23.09% | 4,219 | -6.16% | | CS2505 | | 2680 | -21 | -0.78% | 1,026 | ...
先锋期货期权日报-20250512
Xian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 09:08
先锋期货期权日报 2025-5-12 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下,我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任,投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下,我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | sc2506 | 3.3% | 1 | 2.0% | 2 | 2.7% | 19 | | fg506 | 2.5% | 2 | 1.5% | 10 | 2.7% | 17 | | ps2507 | 2.4% | 3 | 2.2% | 1 | 5.5% | 2 | | sn2506 | 2.3% | 4 | 1.2% | 21 | 1. ...
Pinterest Stock Soars on Upbeat Forecast, Revenue Beat
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2025-05-09 15:00
Core Insights - Pinterest Inc (NYSE:PINS) shares increased by 10.7% to $30.83 following a stronger-than-expected current-quarter forecast, with first-quarter revenue of $855 million surpassing estimates, while adjusted earnings were 23 cents per share, slightly below expectations [1] Analyst Reactions - Following the earnings report, seven analysts raised their price targets, with Citigroup increasing its target to $41 from $38, while six analysts cut their targets, the most significant reduction being Jefferies' cut to $27 from $39 [2] Stock Performance - Pinterest's stock has broken above the 50-day moving average, reaching its highest levels since early April, and is up 6.7% year-to-date, indicating a positive trend for 2025 [3] Options Activity - In the options market, there has been significant activity with 46,000 calls and 24,000 puts exchanged, which is eight times the typical volume for this time of day, with the most popular options being the weekly 5/9 29-strike call and the 32-strike call [4] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) for Pinterest stands at 88 out of 100, indicating that the stock has exceeded options traders' volatility expectations over the past year, benefiting options buyers [4]
玉米淀粉日报-20250507
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 14:48
Report Overview - Report Title: Corn Starch Daily Report - Report Date: May 7, 2025 - Report Author: Liu Dayong 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Corn: The planting progress of US corn is accelerating, and the price is in a bottom - shock pattern with strong support. China has imposed additional tariffs on US corn and sorghum, and the import profit of foreign corn remains low. The spot price of corn in the north is stable, while that in the northeast and north China is rising. The supply is low, and the demand from the breeding industry is weak. It is expected that the corn price will continue to rise in the short - term, with a narrow - range shock in May. In the long - term, policy - related grain auctions may occur after the price difference between corn and wheat narrows [5][8]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the price of corn in Shandong is relatively strong. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. Due to weak demand, starch enterprises are in a long - term loss state and many have shut down. It is expected that the short - term 07 starch contract will be in a strong - shock pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures盘面 | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Volume Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | C2601 | 2283 | -5 | -0.22% | 29,298 | 74.98% | 61,948 | 11.91% | | C2505 | 2332 | 7 | 0.30% | 4,027 | -63.16% | 26,574 | -37.00% | | C2509 | 2379 | 0 | 0.00% | 163,043 | 35.20% | 387,970 | 5.88% | | CS2601 | 2720 | 1 | 0.04% | 1,505 | 212.24% | 3,278 | 30.44% | | CS2505 | 2715 | 26 | 0.96% | 2,660 | -77.59% | 20,776 | -21.54% | | CS2509 | 2811 | 7 | 0.25% | 10,192 | 54.80% | 34,491 | 7.23% | [3] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - **Corn**: The spot prices in different regions have different changes. For example, the price in Zhucheng Xingmao and Shouguang has increased by 20 yuan, and the price in Guangdong Port has increased by 10 yuan. The basis varies in different regions, ranging from - 289 to 105 [3]. - **Starch**: The price of Yufeng and Hengren Industry and Trade has increased by 20 and 40 yuan respectively. The basis also shows different values in different regions, from - 15 to 235 [3]. 3.1.3 Spreads - **Corn Inter - period Spreads**: For example, C01 - C05 is - 49 with a change of - 12, C05 - C09 is - 47 with a change of 7 [3]. - **Starch Inter - period Spreads**: CS01 - CS05 is 5 with a change of - 25, CS05 - CS09 is - 96 with a change of 19 [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: CS09 - C09 is 432 with a change of 7, CS01 - C01 is 437 with a change of 6 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The planting progress of US corn is accelerating, and the price is in a bottom - shock pattern with strong support. China has imposed additional tariffs on US corn and sorghum, and the import profit of foreign corn remains low. The price of Brazilian corn in July is 2098 yuan. The spot price in the north is stable, while that in the northeast and north China is rising. The supply is low, and the demand from the breeding industry is weak. It is expected that the corn price will continue to rise in the short - term, with a narrow - range shock in May. In the long - term, policy - related grain auctions may occur after the price difference between corn and wheat narrows [5][8]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the price of corn in Shandong is relatively strong. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week, with the factory inventory at 143.6 million tons, an increase of 6.0 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 3.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.43%. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. Due to weak demand, starch enterprises are in a long - term loss state and many have shut down. It is expected that the short - term 07 starch contract will be in a strong - shock pattern [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 07 corn contract in China will have a narrow - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions on pullbacks [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the position of buying spot and shorting 07 corn. Wait and see for now on widening the spread between 07 corn and starch at low levels [14]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Enterprises with spot can sell corn call options and hold the position [16]. - Option Contract Data: For example, on May 7, 2025, the C2509 - P - 2380.DCE option has an underlying price of 2379, a closing price of 50.00, and an IV of - 8.5 [16]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 09 contract, and the spread between corn starch and corn 09 contract [18][21][23].
先锋期货期权日报-20250507
Xian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 09:02
先锋期货期权日报 2025-5-7 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下,我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任,投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下,我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | sc2506 | 2.7% | 1 | 2.9% | 3 | 2.3% | 20 | | ps2506 | 2.4% | 2 | 1.7% | 27 | 4.7% | 1 | | sn2506 | 2.3% | 3 | 2.2% | 13 | 1.7% | 39 | | br2506 | 2.1% | 4 | 2.5% | 6 | 2. ...