Group 1 - "Long gold" has become the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, with 58% of investors considering it the current most crowded trade, significantly higher than the second-ranked "long tech giants" at 22% [2] - Gold is viewed as the most overvalued asset since 2008, with a net 45% of investors believing it is overvalued, an increase from 34% in April [5] - Investor sentiment towards the US dollar has shifted significantly, with a net 17% of investors holding a low allocation stance, marking a 19-year low since May 2006 [8] Group 2 - A net 57% of investors believe the US dollar is overvalued, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month, representing the largest monthly decline since September 2023 [11] - Despite a slight improvement in global investor sentiment, it remains at a pessimistic level, with 61% of investors expecting a "soft landing" for the global economy, up from 37% in April [16] - A net 59% of investors expect the economy to weaken, showing the largest monthly improvement since October 2024, although expectations are still down 66 percentage points from the peak in December 2024 [19] Group 3 - 62% of investors view tariffs as the biggest tail risk for a global recession, with 43% believing tariffs could lead to a systemic credit event, followed by the US shadow banking system at 25% [21] - Investors are significantly adjusting their asset allocations, with a net 38% underweight in US stocks, the lowest level since May 2023, while eurozone stock allocation increased by 13 percentage points to a net 35% overweight [26] - There has been a substantial increase in tech stock allocation by 17 percentage points, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2013, while energy stock allocation has dropped to a net 35% underweight, the lowest on record [26]

美国银行基金经理调查：61%的基金经理认为经济会软着陆，4月份时这一比例为37%；26%的人认为会 出现硬着陆，低于4月份的49%。 ...

（原标题：隔夜美股 | 三大指数大幅收高 中国金龙指数涨5.4%） 智通财经APP获悉，周一，三大指数大幅收高，中美两国经过周末谈判后同意临时性大幅降低关税，提 高了市场对贸易战局势缓从而避免经济陷入衰退的希望。本周市场关注CPI与PPI等通胀数据。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨1160.72点，涨幅为2.81%，报42410.10点；纳指涨779.43点，涨幅为4.35%， 报18708.34点；标普500指数涨184.28点，涨幅为3.26%，报5844.19点。英伟达(NVDA.US)涨5.4%，特斯 拉(TSLA.US)涨6.7%，苹果(AAPL.US)涨6.3%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨5.4%，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)涨 近6%，万国数据(GDS.US)涨14%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨73.99点，涨幅0.31%，报23563.43点；英国富时100指数涨52.53点，涨幅 0.61%，报8607.33点；法国CAC40指数涨106.35点，涨幅1.37%，报7850.10点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 83.71点，涨幅1.58%，报5393.45点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨116.34点，涨幅0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury yields poses significant challenges for the Federal Reserve's traditional policy of stimulating economic growth through interest rate cuts [1][3][10] Group 1: Yield Divergence - The current issue in the U.S. Treasury market is the significant divergence in yield trends, with short-term Treasury yields declining while long-term yields are rising [1] - As of April 2, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to approximately 4.38%, contrasting with the decline in short-term yields [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Yield Divergence - The primary reason for this yield divergence is the uncertainty surrounding inflation, exacerbated by unpredictable trade policies [4] - Investors are demanding higher yields to compensate for the risks associated with holding long-term Treasuries, leading to an increase in the "term premium" [4] Group 3: Impact on Borrowing Costs - This yield divergence directly raises borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to stimulate the economy through rate cuts [3][10] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.8% last week, slightly up from a month ago, indicating persistent high borrowing costs despite potential rate cuts [6] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Policy Implications - Most investors believe that if the U.S. enters a recession and the Federal Reserve significantly cuts rates, long-term yields should theoretically decline [6] - However, there are concerns that long-term yields may not decrease sufficiently, keeping mortgage and other debt rates high [6][10] Group 5: Cautious Policy Response - The Federal Reserve is exercising caution in its monetary policy decisions, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need to maintain credibility in combating inflation [8] - The U.S. Treasury has shown increased sensitivity to market conditions, adjusting its debt issuance strategy in response to rising long-term yields [9]

与高盛的谨慎不同，摩根大通交易员对美股的态度更为乐观。 据报道，摩根大通交易员预计随着CTA策略激活、股票回购加速等因素推动，标普500指数将先冲击6000点，并勾勒出具体路 线图。 截止5月5日收盘，标普500指数报5650点，距离摩根大通预计的6000点还有不到10%的上行空间。 与此同时，摩根大通还警告称，如果标普500指数冲击6000点，可能代表近期峰值，之后他们对中期前景持悲观态度。 摩根大通给出的理由是，虽然贸易战的言论不会加剧，但是关税谈判仍然进行中，但关税仍保持高位，贸易协议仍在谈判 中，其并勾勒出跌至5000点的具体路线图。 摩根大通：标普可能先冲击6000点 摩根大通交易员描绘了标普500指数达到6000点的可能路径： 当前牛市假设持续推进→随后出现空头挤压，罗素2000、零售商和高贝塔周期股表现优异→美元继续走强→导致 新兴市场和发达国际市场表现不佳，资金回流美国→推动科技、媒体和电信板块走高 摩根大通表示，如果上述事件发生，随着CTA策略激活和股票回购加速，以及散户投资者买入，标普500指数可能会超过 5800点，同时对冲基金被迫入场，推动标普500指数冲击6000点。 一些投资者一直 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 achieving its longest winning streak in 20 years, driven by positive non-farm payroll data and a rebound in Chinese assets [1][3][11]. Economic Data - The U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, significantly exceeding the expected 138,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. This data is interpreted as a signal of "economic soft landing," alleviating concerns over GDP contraction [3]. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 rose by 1.47%, marking its ninth consecutive day of gains, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq also recorded similar increases of 1.39% and 1.51%, respectively [3]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 3.5%, with notable gains in Chinese stocks such as Century Internet (+13%), XPeng Motors (+5%), and Alibaba (+4%) [11]. Sector Performance - The performance of the "Big Seven" tech stocks was mixed, with Meta rising by 4.34% due to advancements in AI and recovering ad revenues, while Apple fell by 3.74% after disappointing earnings [6][8]. Trade Relations - Recent developments indicate a potential easing of trade tensions, with the Chinese Ministry of Commerce noting ongoing negotiations with the U.S. regarding tariff issues. This has positively impacted both U.S. and Chinese markets [15]. Investment Outlook - Analysts express a cautiously optimistic view on the global market, highlighting potential sector rotations and the attractiveness of Chinese assets. Goldman Sachs raised its target price for the MSCI China Index by 15%, citing unexpected government growth policies and signs of corporate profit recovery [18]. - Various institutions suggest a diversified investment approach to manage risks and capture opportunities, especially in light of anticipated market volatility in 2025 [21][22].

近日，俄罗斯总统普京召开经济专题会议，评估实体部门、金融和服务业的现状和发展趋势。会上，普 京提出俄罗斯经济"软着陆"问题。专家表示，俄罗斯引导经济"软着陆"目的在于应对可能出现的经济危 机，俄罗斯未来经济政策或将经历调整。 （文章来源：经济日报） 会上，普京总结了今年以来俄罗斯的经济形势。他表示，今年俄罗斯国内生产总值（GDP）的增长动力 将弱于去年。今年1月份至2月份，俄GDP增速为1.9%，制造业产出同比增长5%，通货膨胀率超过 10%，仍处于高位。住房建筑领域增长乏力，开发商推出的新项目数量减少，银行的贷款组合持续下 降。俄罗斯国家财政继续支撑经济发展，今年1月份至3月份，联邦预算赤字总额达2.2万亿卢布。 普京表示，当前国际经济形势越来越复杂，全球竞争加剧，大宗商品市场和金融市场剧烈波动。在此背 景下，客观地分析当前的经济形势极为重要。"我们讨论的是一定程度上的'软着陆'，以维持宏观经济 指标，最重要的是，抑制通货膨胀。"普京说。 今年以来，俄罗斯经济发展呈现两大趋势。一方面，经济增长放缓。俄罗斯经济发展部数据显示，2025 年1月份俄GDP同比增长3.0%，2月份GDP同比增长0.8%，年初以来平 ...

Hartnett分析称，为避免引发第二波通胀压力，特朗普政府可能会刻意淡化4月2日的影响。而4月4日的就 业报告将更清晰地显示经济是否实现软着陆，并为4月市场方向提供更可靠的指引，因而更值得市场关 注。 来源 | 华尔街见闻 近期， 市场目光高度聚焦于"4月2日" ，即美国可能升级进口关税的日子。 然而，美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett认为， "4月2日"或被过度炒作，真正的"分水岭"是4月4日公布的 美国3月非农就业数据。 私募股权行业现已与商业地产、小型股和住房市场一道，加入需要美联储迅速且大幅降息的阵营。 Hartnett警告说，如果美国银行指数(BKX)无法守住120点关键支撑位，市场可能面临"巨大风险"。 在最新 "资金流向报告"（Flow Show）中，Hartnett表示，特朗普政府可能会刻意淡化4月2日的影响，而 非像市场预期的那样大肆渲染。 其主要原因是避免引发第二波通胀压力——考虑到通胀仍是美国经济和政治的敏感话题，特朗普政府有 充分动机避免关税政策引发新一轮价格上涨。 相比之下，Hartnett强调4月4日发布的3月就业报告将成为判断经济软着陆或硬着陆的关键指标，并将更 直 ...

近期， 市场目光高度聚焦于"4月2日" ，即美国可能升级进口关税的日子。 更值得警惕的是，由黑石(BX)、KKR、凯雷(CG)、阿波罗(APO)和几大银行股（摩根大通、美国银行、富国银行、花旗）组成的私募股权指数在过去两个月下 跌了22%，表明市场压力明显加剧。 然而，美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett认为， "4月2日"或被过度炒作，真正的"分水岭"是4月4日公布的美国3月非农就业数据。 Hartnett分析称，为避免引发第二波通胀压力，特朗普政府可能会刻意淡化4月2日的影响。而4月4日的就业报告将更清晰地显示经济是否实现软着陆，并为4月 市场方向提供更可靠的指引，因而更值得市场关注。 4月4日：真正的市场转折点，两种可能的市场反应 在最新 "资金流向报告"（Flow Show）中，Hartnett表示，特朗普政府可能会刻意淡化4月2日的影响，而非像市场预期的那样大肆渲染。 其主要原因是避免引发第二波通胀压力——考虑到通胀仍是美国经济和政治的敏感话题，特朗普政府有充分动机避免关税政策引发新一轮价格上涨。 相比之下，Hartnett强调4月4日发布的3月就业报告将成为判断经济软着陆或硬着陆的关键指 ...