关联内容潘功胜陆家嘴论坛发声：单一主权货币主导跨境支付局面正在改变美元失宠 21世纪经济报道记者唐婧北京报道7月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年6月末，我国外汇储备规模为33174亿美元，较5月末上升322亿美元， 升幅为0.98%，连续6个月出现环比回升。这是2024年9月以来我国外储首次站上3.3万亿美元大关，也是连续19个月保持在3.2万亿美元以上。 国家外汇局表示，2025年6月，受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长前景等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化 等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济持续稳健增长，保持良好发展势头，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青告诉记者，6月美元大幅贬值推动我国外储中非美元资产大幅升值，是6月外储规模增幅扩大的主要原因。这背后是6月美国推 进"大而美"法案，市场对美元信心再度出现动摇。加之中美经贸磋商机制首次会议释放积极信号，全球主要股指普遍出现一定幅度上涨，美债收益率有所下 行，美债价格上升，全球金融资产价格总体上涨，也在推高6月外储估值。 黄金储备方面，央行连续第8个月增持黄金。同日， ...

"当美国疯狂印钞时，中国却在默默囤积黄金！"这绝不是危言耸听——央行最新数据显示，我国已连续 8个月增持黄金，总储备量逼近2300吨。而在这背后，一场关乎全球经济格局的暗战正在上演…… 中美俄的黄金"三国杀" 翻开全球黄金储备榜单，美国以8133吨高居榜首，德国紧随其后，而中国的2298吨看似遥不可及。但鲜 为人知的是，俄罗斯过去十年已悄悄将黄金储备翻倍！更耐人寻味的是，美联储的黄金储备自1952年起 就再未变动，而中国同期却增持了足足800吨。 世界黄金协会最新调查揭示惊人数据：95%的央行计划继续增持黄金。这绝非偶然——当美债收益率波 动如过山车，当比特币等加密货币暴涨暴跌，黄金始终保持着"定海神针"的属性。 经济学家温彬指出关键：全球政治经济形势剧变下，黄金的避险属性愈发凸显。特别是美国新政府上台 后，贸易摩擦、科技封锁等不确定性加剧，各国央行不得不通过黄金构筑"金融防波堤"。正如纽约联储 前主席所说："黄金不是历史的遗迹，而是未来的保险单。" 人民币国际化的黄金密码 当前我国黄金储备占比仅为7%，远低于全球15%的平均水平。但王青等专家揭示的深层逻辑令人振 奋：每增持一吨黄金，都是为人民币国际化添砖加 ...

中国人民银行7月7日披露数据显示， 中国6月末黄金储备报7390万盎司，环比增加7万盎司，这是中国 人民银行连续第8个月增持黄金 。 就市场走势而言，虽然6月国际黄金价格延续5月份的震荡态势，但上半年国际现货黄金价格累计上涨超 过25%，创下18年以来的最大半年涨幅。 对于央行连续第8个月增持黄金，中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛认为，这是中国国际储备资产多元化 继续稳步推进的体现。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟则分别从短期、中期、长期视角分析，从短期来看，央行在 6月份仍连续第8个月环比增持黄金、维持稳健增持黄金的节奏，除了抓住金价技术性调整窗口期、降低 增持成本等考虑因素外，更多是出于应对地缘政治新风险点和不确定性、顺应市场避险情绪、对冲其他 类别金融资产波动性等原因。 从中期来看，伴随着全球贸易形势不明朗、地缘冲突持续、去美元化步伐加速、美联储降息周期开启以 及美元指数和美元资产走弱的态势，各国央行和投资者都会继续增持黄金投资，并为金价的震荡上行持 续提供支持。 资产方面，温彬援引数据称，以美元标价的已对冲全球债券指数上涨1.0%，标普500股票指数上涨 5.0%，债券、股票等全球资产价格上涨亦对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the international status of the euro and the potential for the renminbi (RMB) to increase its international role, particularly in light of recent U.S. tariff policies that have altered the dynamics of global financial markets [2][10][21]. Euro's International Role - The euro's international status has remained stable in recent years, with some progress in areas like "reverse Yankee" bonds due to U.S. tariff policies, which have prompted investors to seek alternative currencies [2][7]. - The "International Role Composite Index" introduced in the Lagarde report measures a currency's role in international bonds, cross-border deposits, global foreign exchange reserves, and international settlements [6]. - The euro's share in official foreign exchange reserves has remained around 20% since 2015, while the RMB's share was 2.2% in 2024, down approximately 0.4 percentage points from 2022 [6][17]. Impact of U.S. Policies - U.S. tariff policies have created opportunities for the euro to enhance its international role by breaking the traditional negative correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds, leading investors to diversify into other currencies [10][11]. - The report emphasizes that for the euro to capitalize on these opportunities, Europe must eliminate internal financial market fragmentation and establish a unified capital market [11] . Challenges from Digital Currencies - The rise of cryptocurrencies poses challenges to the international monetary system, with the U.S. actively developing policies around digital assets that could affect global financial stability [13][14]. - The report calls for Europe to accelerate the development of a digital euro and improve cross-border payment systems to strengthen the euro's international position [14]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical factors are increasingly seen as significant in shaping the international monetary system, with a notable rise in gold's share in foreign exchange reserves attributed to concerns over geopolitical risks [16]. - The report indicates that military power is linked to a currency's international status, suggesting that the euro lags behind the dollar partly due to the latter's geopolitical security backing [17][18]. Recommendations for RMB - The article suggests that China should leverage its economic position to enhance the RMB's international role without compromising financial security, focusing on practical measures rather than a formal internationalization roadmap [20][21]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining economic growth to bolster the RMB's international status, as perceptions of slowing growth could diminish its appeal [21].

央行连续8个月增持黄金。 国家外汇管理局（下称"外汇局"）7月7日发布的最新统计数据显示，截至2025年6月末，中国外汇储备规模33174亿美元，较5月末上升322亿美元，升幅为 0.98%。目前，中国外汇储备规模已连续第19个月保持在3.2万亿美元以上。自2024年9月末以来，我国外汇储备规模再次超过3.3万亿美元。 对于当月外汇储备规模变动，外汇局指出，6月受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长前景等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和 资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。 当天更新的官方储备资产数据显示，2025年6月末，中国官方黄金储备为7390万盎司，较上月末增加7万盎司。目前，中国人民银行（简称"央行"）已连续8 个月增持黄金。 外储规模站上3.3万亿美元 过去1个月，我国外汇储备规模环比明显上升，自2024年9月末以来再度超过3.3万亿美元。2025年6月，受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长前景等因素影响， 美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。 从汇率变动看，6月美元指数跌下跌2.5%至3年以来最低点，非美 ...

当天更新的官方储备资产数据显示，2025年6月末，中国官方黄金储备为7390万盎司，较上月末增加7万盎司。 目前，央行已连续8个月增持黄金。 外汇储备规模站上3.3万亿美元 过去1个月，我国外汇储备规模环比明显上升，自2024年9月末以来再度超过3.3万亿美元。 2025年6月，受主要 经济体宏观政策、经济增长前景等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价 格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。 从汇率变动看，6月美元指数下跌2.5%至3年以来最低点，非美货币集体升值，过去1个月欧元、英镑兑美元均 有所上涨。非美元货币相对美元总体升值，将推动以美元作为计量货币的外汇储备规模出现上升。 从资产价格看，6月以来美元标价的已对冲全球债券指数上涨1%；标普500股票指数上涨5%。债券、股票等全 球资产价格上涨也助推外汇储备规模上升。 今年上半年，美元指数跌逾10%，创2022年3月以来新低。二季度以来，美国金融市场多次出现股债汇"三 杀"。民生银行首席经济学家温彬向证券时报·券商中国记者指出，市场对美国财政纪律、货币政策中立性、美 元政治工具化倾向的担忧持续升温，美元信用受损，全球"去 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong is emerging as a significant financial hub amidst global market volatility, driven by capital inflows and the need for alternative financing options due to the ongoing tariff wars and the depreciation of the US dollar [2][23]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index rose over 20% following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," while the Hong Kong dollar reached a strong exchange rate of 7.75 against the US dollar [1]. - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from mainland China into the Hong Kong stock market exceeded 710 billion HKD, significantly higher than previous years [2]. - The Hong Kong IPO market saw a 700% year-on-year increase in funds raised, driven by international capital [2]. Group 2: Currency and Financial Stability - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance since 1973, leading to significant capital outflows from the US [3][23]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened multiple times to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, injecting approximately 129 billion HKD into the financial system [5][10]. - The Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate fluctuated between strong and weak zones, prompting discussions on the benefits and drawbacks of the linked exchange rate system [5][39]. Group 3: Wealth Management and Investment Trends - Boston Consulting Group predicts that by 2029, Hong Kong will surpass Switzerland as the largest cross-border wealth management center globally [4]. - Wealth management revenues in Hong Kong increased significantly, with HSBC reporting a 14% rise in wholesale banking income in the first quarter [17][30]. - The average wealth of adults in mainland China is projected to continue growing, enhancing cross-border investment potential [32]. Group 4: RMB and Trade Financing - Hong Kong is the largest offshore RMB business hub, handling about 80% of global offshore RMB payments [18]. - Cross-border RMB settlements between China and ASEAN countries grew by 35% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards RMB financing [22]. - The demand for RMB in trade financing is increasing, reflecting a broader trend of "de-dollarization" in international trade [26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The financial landscape in Hong Kong is expected to evolve with increased focus on offshore RMB markets and digital financial infrastructure [38][45]. - The capital from the Middle East is becoming a significant source of wealth for Hong Kong, with sovereign wealth funds projected to grow substantially [37]. - Hong Kong's unique position as a "super connector" between China and international markets is likely to enhance its financial stability and growth prospects [46].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves consistently for eight months, with a total of 2,298.55 tons as of June 30, 2023, although the pace of accumulation has slowed down compared to previous years [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Reserve Changes - In the first half of 2023, the People's Bank of China added a total of 18.97 tons of gold, which is nearly 10 tons less than the 28.93 tons added in the same period last year [1][2]. - The monthly gold purchases by the central bank have shown a decreasing trend, with May 2023 recording the lowest monthly addition of 1.87 tons [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Purchases - The slowdown in gold accumulation is attributed to three main factors: the need to control purchase costs, the optimization of foreign exchange reserve structure, and the rising gold prices expected in 2025 [2][3]. - The central bank's strategy is influenced by the weakening credibility of the US dollar and the increasing demand for diversification in foreign exchange reserves due to global economic uncertainties [5]. Group 3: Global Trends in Gold Accumulation - In the first quarter of 2023, global central banks added only 244 tons of gold, a 21% decrease compared to the previous year, indicating a broader trend of reduced gold purchases [4]. - Despite the decrease in gold accumulation, there is a strong expectation among central banks to continue increasing their gold reserves in the coming years, with 72% of central banks indicating plans to add to their gold holdings [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Analysts suggest that the second half of 2023 may see fluctuations in gold prices, with potential for increases due to ongoing geopolitical risks and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5].

Core Insights - The development of stablecoins, particularly dollar-pegged stablecoins, has significant implications for the global economy and financial system, as highlighted by Zhou Xiaochuan [1][3][5] - While dollar stablecoins can enhance transaction efficiency and reduce costs, they also pose risks of dollarization, which can undermine monetary policy independence and financial stability in various countries [4][6] Summary by Sections Potential Impact of Dollar Stablecoins - Dollar stablecoins are primarily based on the US dollar and can improve efficiency in transactions and remittances, especially in cross-border payments due to their fast settlement and low costs [3] - They can also facilitate the purchase of various assets, including digital and crypto assets, thereby stimulating related markets [3] Risks and Side Effects of Dollarization - Dollarization refers to the widespread use of the US dollar in economic activities instead of local currencies, which has been observed in Central America and some transitioning economies [4] - It can weaken a country's monetary policy independence as the demand for local currency decreases, limiting the central bank's ability to manage monetary policy [4] - Dollarization may lead to financial instability, exposing local financial institutions to liquidity and exchange rate risks, often adopted in extreme situations like high inflation or debt [4] Cautious Considerations for Stablecoin Development - Zhou emphasizes the need for countries to carefully assess the impact of dollarization on their economies and financial systems when considering the promotion of domestic stablecoins [5] - The widespread use of dollar stablecoins could exacerbate the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy, affecting other nations' monetary and economic policies [5] - Countries should adopt a prudent approach in advancing stablecoin development to ensure alignment with their economic interests and financial stability goals [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion by the end of June 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of $322 billion, or 0.98% [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the decline in the US dollar index and the overall rise in global financial asset prices [1] - The dollar index fell by 2.5% in June, reaching its lowest point in three years at 96.9, leading to appreciation of non-US currencies such as the euro and pound, which rose by 3.89% and 2.1% respectively [1][2] - The stable growth of China's economy and resilient foreign trade contribute positively to the stability of foreign exchange reserves [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index (USD Hedged) increased by 1.0%, and the S&P 500 index rose by 5.0%, providing strong support for foreign reserves [2] - Despite a more complex and severe external environment, with weakened global economic momentum and high volatility in international financial markets, investor confidence in China's capital market remains strong [2]