Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing unprecedented interest and price movements, driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade policies, leading to a significant decline in the gold-silver ratio for the first time in 14 years [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged, with the gold-silver ratio dropping below 50, indicating a strong market shift [1]. - The U.S. has classified silver as a critical mineral, while China has imposed stricter export controls, intensifying trade tensions [3]. - Investor interest in silver has increased significantly, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and diversification trends in investment portfolios [4]. Group 2: Trading Activity - Current trading activity in silver is 2.1 times its three-month average, surpassing both gold and cryptocurrencies in retail momentum and abnormal capital inflows [6]. - Retail investors have injected a record $921.8 million into silver-related ETFs over the past 30 days, marking the largest buying scale in history [8]. - The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has seen an unprecedented 169 consecutive days of net inflows from retail investors, indicating a fundamental shift in asset allocation rather than mere opportunistic buying [8]. Group 3: Price Volatility and Future Outlook - Anticipation of potential U.S. tariffs on silver, possibly up to 50%, has led to liquidity pressures in the London market, amplifying price volatility [10]. - Goldman Sachs notes that while silver has shown strong performance, its volatility is higher than gold, which could lead to significant fluctuations in the gold-silver ratio [16]. - The structural advantages of gold remain, with expectations of continued central bank purchases, projected to average 70 tons per month by 2026, significantly higher than the 17 tons per month average in 2022 [14].

来源：滚动播报 印度贵金属公司Augmont Bullion 报告指出，白银从创纪录高位回落主要是因为特朗普暂缓对关键矿产 进口征收新关税，并转而表示美国将通过谈判确保供应链安全，而仅在谈判失败时考虑进口限制措施。 报告同时预测，市场可能出现短暂的获利了结和价格回撤，之后价格有望再次走高。投资者也在关注美 联储未来的政策走向。在全球不确定性背景下，美国11月生产者价格和12月消费者价格都低于预期，这 增强了市场对美联储今年可能多次降息的预期，从而进一步提振了贵金属的需求。 ...

Group 1 - Global stock funds recorded the largest weekly net inflow in 15 weeks, amounting to $45.59 billion, as investors pushed global markets close to historical highs, continuing last year's upward momentum [1][4] - The MSCI global index rose by 20.6% last year and reached a new high that week, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 2.4% [4] - U.S. stock funds saw a net inflow of $28.18 billion, marking the highest weekly inflow in two and a half months, leading regional fund inflows [4] Group 2 - Global bond funds had a net inflow of $19.03 billion, remaining stable compared to the previous week's $19.12 billion [7] - Money market funds experienced a net outflow of $67.15 billion, with total redemptions of $250 billion over the past two weeks [10] - Emerging market assets were favored, with $5.73 billion flowing into emerging market equity funds, the highest weekly inflow since October 2024 [10]

今日国内黄金价格继续保持平稳格局，多数品牌报价与昨日持平，市场整体波动有限。其中，老庙黄金报价1434元/克，下 调5元，与六福、金至尊等价格持平；潮宏基、周大生仍报1436元/克，位居今日高位。菜百黄金持续保持1392元/克的最低 报价，市场高低价差为44元/克，较昨日进一步收窄。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2026年1月16日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1434 | 元/克 | 5 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1434 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1426 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1421 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1434 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1434 | 元/克 | 2 | 跌 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1436 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1431 | 元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing unprecedented interest and activity, driven by geopolitical tensions, record inflows from retail investors, and expectations of U.S. tariffs on silver, leading to significant price volatility and a historic drop in the gold-silver ratio [1][3][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has fallen below 50 for the first time in 14 years, indicating a shift in market dynamics favoring silver [1]. - Silver is at the center of trade tensions, with the U.S. listing it as a critical mineral and China imposing stricter export controls, which has heightened investor interest [3]. - Retail trading activity in silver is currently 2.1 times its three-month average, surpassing both gold and cryptocurrencies, suggesting a structural increase in demand rather than just short-term speculation [5]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Retail investors have injected a record $921.8 million into silver-related ETFs over the past 30 days, marking the largest buying spree in history [6]. - The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has seen an unprecedented 169 consecutive days of net inflows from retail investors, indicating a fundamental shift in asset allocation strategies [6]. - The expectation of potential U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on silver has led to a concentration of silver in the U.S., causing liquidity pressures in the London market and amplifying price volatility [8]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis with Gold - Goldman Sachs notes that despite the current enthusiasm for silver, gold remains a preferred alternative investment for those seeking to diversify away from dollar risk, with a projected 67% performance increase by 2025 [10]. - Gold ETFs currently represent only 0.17% of the U.S. non-cash financial investment portfolio, indicating significant room for growth compared to the peak in 2012 [11]. - The ongoing demand for gold from central banks is expected to continue, with average monthly purchases projected to reach 70 tons by 2026, significantly higher than the 17 tons average in 2022 [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs suggests that the current speculative behavior in silver, driven by physical market tightness, may not be sustainable, and once the excitement fades, the support for silver prices could weaken [14]. - The historical volatility of silver compared to gold suggests that while silver may outperform in certain conditions, the long-term outlook for gold remains strong due to continued central bank purchases and investor diversification [14].

Core Insights - The total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reached 1,074.8 tons as of January 15, 2026, reflecting an increase of 0.57 tons from the previous trading day [5] - The spot gold price experienced fluctuations, dropping to a low of $4,581.26 per ounce before closing at $4,615.73, down $10.68 or 0.23% [5] - The significant drop in gold and silver prices was attributed to profit-taking after previous record highs, alongside a temporary halt by the U.S. on new tariffs for key mineral imports [5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions easing contributed to the adjustment in gold and silver prices, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets [5] - Despite the recent price drop, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [5] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may continue to support gold's safe-haven demand [6] Group 2: Investment Trends - In 2025, gold prices set a record 53 times, leading to unprecedented inflows into gold ETFs, totaling $89 billion, with assets under management (AUM) reaching $559 billion and total holdings climbing to a historic peak of 4,025 tons [6] - The record performance was driven by three main factors: increased demand for safe-haven assets due to global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, trend-following buying due to rising gold prices, and reduced opportunity costs from declining U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar [6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The strong market momentum continued into the end of the year, with global gold ETFs seeing inflows for seven consecutive months, amounting to approximately $10 billion, primarily driven by North America [7] - The technical outlook for gold remains bullish, with the 50-day moving average trending upwards and the relative strength index (RSI) indicating positive momentum without reaching overbought levels [7] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,643 and $4,660, while initial support is at $4,535 and further at $4,490 [7]

Group 1: Silver and Gold Market Dynamics - The recovery of silver, reaching a recent high of over $93 per ounce, has pushed the gold-silver ratio down to 50, the lowest level since March 2012 [1][6] - Silver prices surged nearly 150% last year, continuing to rise into early 2026, while gold prices remain above $4,600 per ounce, up over 6% this year [7] - The increase in metal prices, geopolitical risks, and threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve are raising concerns about potential inflation acceleration in 2026 [7] Group 2: Inflation Concerns and Market Reactions - The current inflation rate remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, raising fears that anticipated rate cuts in 2026 may be jeopardized [7][8] - Despite some fund managers taking precautions, broader financial markets have not fully priced in inflation concerns, as evidenced by the slight increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.16% [2][7] - The market is awaiting Trump's nomination for the new Federal Reserve chair, who is expected to favor significant rate cuts [8] Group 3: Japanese Monetary Policy Outlook - Concerns about the new leadership potentially undermining the independence of the Bank of Japan are prevalent, with the yen's depreciation influencing future policy decisions [9] - A Bloomberg survey indicates that all economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% during the upcoming meeting [9] - July is seen as the most likely month for the next interest rate hike, with 48% of economists supporting this view [9]

1月16日，昨日周四我们认为，市场对美联储降息的预期，以及地缘风险集中发酵刺激避险买盘，依旧 对黄金走势形成支撑，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注4580美元，其次4550美元，上方压力关注历 史高点4642美元，若向上突破，上方空间可以关注4700美元。 1月16日，昨日周四我们认为，市场对美联储降息的预期，以及地缘风险集中发酵刺激避险买盘，依旧 对黄金走势形成支撑，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注4580美元，其次4550美元，上方压力关注历 史高点4642美元，若向上突破，上方空间可以关注4700美元。 从之后的走势看，周四亚盘盘中，黄金多次回落试探4580美元企稳，欧盘盘中，金价反弹4622美元遇阻 后，走势震荡回落，最低跌至4582美元，再度试探4580美元附近支撑企稳，美盘开盘后，黄金震荡回 升，涨至4624美元遇阻，回落4601美元企稳后，反弹4621美元遇阻，再度回落4600美元企稳。总体来 看，尽管黄金涨势暂时遇阻，但金价回落有限，展开高位震荡，依旧保留再次冲高的机会。 Wolfinance星级分析师认为，近期黄金大涨，刷新历史新高，降息预期与避险买盘，成为支撑金价冲高 的重要原因。消息方面 ...

基本面： 周五（1月16日）亚盘时段，现货黄金守住短期涨幅并震荡收窄，目前交投于4600美元关口附近。周四（1月15日）金价正面临一场意想不到的下滑。现货黄 金价格从周三的创纪录高点回落，收报4615.73美元/盎司，跌幅约0.2%，而美国期金也收低0.3%。这一变化的背后，是美国强劲的就业数据提振美元汇率， 以及美国总统特朗普在伊朗问题上的语气缓和，进一步削弱了黄金的避险需求。 周四美国劳工部公布的数据显示，上周初请失业金人数意外下降9000人，经季节性调整后仅为198000人，远低于经济学家预期的215000人。这一意外惊喜直 接推动美元指数创下六周新高，触及99.49，并最终收于99.35，涨幅0.28%。美元的走强使得以美元计价的黄金对海外买家变得更加昂贵，从而压制了需 求。专家分析指出，这种就业数据的改善强化了市场对美联储短期内维持利率不变的预期。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比强调，美联储应优先关注降低通胀，因 为就业市场已显示出足够的稳定性。 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则更进一步，反对立即降息，认为通胀仍处于"过热"状态，而特朗普政府的政策可能进一步刺激经济需求，推高物价压力。这些言 论让联邦基金利率期货将下 ...

贵金属价格回调的同时，白银需求空前高涨，据美媒报道，美国铸币局已暂停白银销售。SPDR Gold Trust的持仓量在1月15日微升0.05%，至1074.80吨，为3年半多以来的最高水平。Vanda Research当日发 布报告显示，白银已成为市场上最拥挤的大宗商品交易，个人投资者以极快的速度抢购白银。 展望后市，一德期货贵分析师表示，当前投资与实物需求持续旺盛，银价的潜在利空主要来自金融属性 层面，即美联储降息预期转弱及风险情绪回落。目前美联储1月降息的预期进一步下滑，意味着金融属 性的利空已较为有限。 分析师Kyle Rodda表示，由于美国经济数据强于预期，市场对美联储降息的预期降低，同时地缘政治摩 擦减少，黄金作为避险资产的需求下降，导致黄金价格继续下跌。 当地时间1月15日，美国劳工部公布数据显示，截至1月10日当周，首次申领失业救济人数减少9000人， 降至19.8万人，低于路透社经济学家预期的21.5万。 市场预测平台Polymarket数据显示，截至1月16日，美联储1月维持利率不变的概率达95%。 1月16日，贵金属价格继续回调，现货白银跌破90美元/盎司。截至发稿，伦敦银现下跌超1%， ...