美联储主席鲍威尔22日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会上发表讲话时表示，今年美国经济 面临新的挑战。高关税正在重塑全球贸易体系，更严格的移民政策导致劳动力供给增长急剧放缓。"目 前（美国）通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行，这是一个充满挑战的局面。" 鲍威尔称，在政策仍处于紧缩区间的背景下，基于前景和风险平衡的变化，美国货币政策立场可能需要 调整。但他同时表示，货币政策没有预设路径，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员将完全基于对数据 的评估以及其对经济展望和风险平衡的影响来做出决策。 新华财经纽约8月22日电纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价22日上涨35.6 美元，收于每盎司3417.2美元，涨幅为1.05%。 当天9月交割的白银期货价格上涨0.801美元，收于每盎司38.880美元，涨幅为2.10%。 因市场对美联储降息预期增强，当天金价上涨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 鲍威尔讲话后，金价大涨。 欧洲央行9月份或维持欧元区利率不变。自上个月欧洲央行将利率维持在2%以来，经济增长和通胀走势 与欧洲央行6月份的预期基本一致。欧洲央行预计物价压力将在2026年下降，2027年再 ...

加拿大将根据美国墨西哥加拿大贸易协议（USMCA）对许多美国商品实施关税豁免。美元兑加元跌超 0.5%，报1.3838。加拿大股指维持大约1%的涨幅，持稳于美联储主席鲍威尔讲话后出现的盘中历史最 高位28340.87点附近。加拿大10年期国债收益率回升，几乎完全收复鲍威尔鸽派讲话之后（瞬间）出现 的失地。两年期加债收益率维持超过4个基点的跌幅，交投于2.69%一线，鲍威尔讲话后一度跌穿 2.67%。在美联储降息预期的带动下，道指上涨840点，涨幅扩大至1.87%，标普涨1.55%，纳指涨400点 涨幅1.9%，半导体指数涨3.5%，银行指数涨2.68%；罗素2000指数。 ...

每经AI快讯，欧洲STOXX600指数突破3月份所创收盘历史最高位，交易员加大对美联储9月降息的押 注，现在恢复全面押注FOMC到年底将降息两次的预期。 ...

股指周报 持续上涨创年内新高，下周重点关注美联储降息预期及市场情绪变化 高翔 （Z0016413）、廖臣悦（F03120676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月22日 一、摘要 本周股指整体延续放量上涨，四大股指均创年内新高，两市成交额上升至2.5万亿元水平。本周消息面较平 淡，A股延续放量大涨主要有两原因。一是近期处于业绩披露期，截至8月18日据wind数据显示，A股半年报 披露进程过半，累计已有523家上市公司公布中期财报，其中443家实现盈利，占比超过80%，其中超过70% 的公司实现归母净利润同比增长，A股上市公司半年度业绩整体表现超预期，尤其是制造业与科技板块的盈利 韧性十足，助力股指上行；二是情绪面和资金面的驱动，继上周五两市成交额突破2.5万亿元以后，本周两市 成交额整体水平维持在2.5万亿元左右，期指持仓量与成交量也维持在相对高位，尤其IM持仓量创下历史新 高，交投热情不减，再加上市场情绪保持乐观，进一步驱动指数上行。 展望后市，在非农就业数据以及PCE物价数据公布前，预计周五晚鲍威尔讲话维持此前提醒通胀风险的偏鹰离 场，9月降息预期不会有较大变动。下周股指走 ...

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-8-22 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 美 国 日 对 美 场 月18 | 尔 霍 | | | | 但 体 行 4， 要 下 | | | | 5%。 | | 撑。 | | | | 9 点， | | 块 板 | 表 求 需 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 逊 | | | | | | | | 关 为 成 期， 预 的 息 降 上 议 会 日 月16-17 在9 储 联 美 对 场 市 击 回 会 否 是 辞， 致 的 尔 威 鲍 席 主 储 联 美 中 会" 年 行 央 球 全 " | | | | | | | | | | | | | 焦 注 | | | | | | | | | | 焦 场 市 | | ...

Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry dated August 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Fed's September rate - cut expectation and central bank gold purchases support gold prices, but geopolitical situation easing weakens safe - haven demand, and dollar fluctuations limit the upside of gold prices. The market awaits Powell's speech at the global central bank conference. Gold ETFs and long - term structural buying remain the pillars of demand [3] Details - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related indicators such as COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in graphs [4] - Gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventories in SHFE and COMEX are shown [12][14][15] Group 3: Copper Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes next week and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices. The strong support of the dollar index puts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [16] Details - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, price changes, and spreads, are provided. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,690 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [17][20] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate processing fees, and warehouse receipts data are also presented [27][31][33] Group 4: Aluminum Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For aluminum, the US tariff expansion has a certain impact on China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Aluminum prices are likely to correct rather than reverse considering the September peak - season expectation and rate - cut expectation. For alumina, the fundamentals are weak, with supply in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, and its futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price [35][36] Details - Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. For instance, the latest price of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,630 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [37][49][55] Group 5: Zinc Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the supply side, smelting profit has recovered, and the supply is gradually changing from tight to excessive. The mine supply is loose. On the demand side, the traditional off - season is weak. LME inventory is decreasing with a certain squeeze - out risk. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate based on macro - observation [62] Details - Zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are shown. The latest price of Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16% [63][71][75] Group 6: Nickel Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventory. Nickel iron is still relatively firm in the short term. Stainless steel prices are weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are stable. Future trends depend on macro - level guidance [78] Details - Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data are presented. The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,610 yuan/ton [79] Group 7: Tin Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro data from the US is in line with expectations. The repeated delay of Myanmar's tin mine full - resumption of production supports tin prices. In the short term, tin prices may fluctuate [92] Details - Tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related indicators such as LME tin spreads are provided. The latest price of Shanghai tin main contract is 265,930 yuan/ton [93][98][102] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market's sensitivity to news is decreasing. In the short term, prices may rebound due to supply - side disturbances and enter a wide - range oscillation [107] Details - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,960 yuan/ton [108][111][115] Group 9: Silicon Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The increase in polysilicon production schedules boosts the demand for industrial silicon. In the medium term, the downside space of industrial silicon is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the future [117] Details - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices, spreads, and production and inventory data are presented. The latest price of industrial silicon main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.27% [117][118][132]

【冠通研究】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜盘面高开低走，偏强震荡，尾盘于 78690 元/吨，前二十名多单 量 105514 手，+1969 手；空单量 102779 手，+3416 手。 关注海外重要会议 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 22 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜高开低走，偏强震荡。杰克逊霍尔会议进行中，鲍威尔将于今晚发表讲 话，其观点或将影响美元指数的波动。供给方面，智利国有铜业公司（Codelco）上调对 于事故损失的估计，下调了 2025 年的产量目标，5 月精炼铜产量同比增长 14.0%，精铜 矿港口库存去化至近五年低位水平，冶炼厂 TC/RC 费用继续企稳回升，长协订单有盈 利，现货订单依然亏损，硫酸价目前处于历史同期高位水平，支撑冶炼厂利润，目前 8 月仅 1 家冶炼厂有检修计划，且华东新投产的冶炼厂开始生产，预计精铜产量波动幅度 不大，冶炼厂三季度后期或因矿端资源偏紧及硫酸胀库而减产停产。需求方面，下游需 求表现为不温不火，新增订单有增加，市场成交量环比减少，房 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. For the copper market, the fundamental situation remains largely unchanged, with support from the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" and the market awaiting new drivers [10]. - The lithium carbonate market is affected by the resumption of production at Yichun Yinli, but demand from power battery factories during the peak season provides some support. The market is volatile and requires cautious operation [11][12]. - Crude oil prices are expected to face downward pressure as the consumption peak season ends and the supply - demand situation weakens. It is recommended to short on rallies [13]. - Asphalt futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile state due to insufficient cost - side support and weak demand [15]. - PP is expected to trade in a range. It is recommended to take profit on the 09 - 01 reverse spread as the 09 contract approaches the delivery month [16][17]. - Plastic is expected to trade in a range, with the improvement in the agricultural film industry potentially providing some support [18]. - PVC is expected to decline in a volatile manner due to weak demand and high inventory pressure [19][20]. - The coking coal market is temporarily in a downward - biased and volatile state, with market sentiment affected by various factors [21]. - Urea is expected to be bearish in the short term due to weak domestic demand and high inventory [22][23]. Summary by Variety Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 22, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Fuel oil and caustic soda rose over 2%, while lithium carbonate fell over 4%. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures mostly fell [6]. - As of 15:16 on August 22, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 300 2509, SSE 50 2509, and CSI 1000 2509, while funds flowed out of contracts like lithium carbonate 2511, SHFE copper 2509, and SHFE gold 2510 [8]. Copper - The market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The supply of refined copper is expected to be stable in the short term, with potential production cuts in the later third quarter. Demand is supported by the power grid and new energy sectors but is still affected by the real estate market. The market is waiting for new drivers [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is in a downward - trending shock. The resumption of production at Yichun Yinli eases supply concerns, and demand from power battery factories during the peak season provides support. The market is highly sensitive to industry news [11][12]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. OPEC + plans to increase production in September. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of global oil surplus. The consumption peak season is ending, and prices are expected to decline [13]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply has decreased, and demand is affected by factors such as weather and funds. With the decline in crude oil prices, the cost - side support is insufficient, and the market is expected to be weak [15]. PP - The downstream PP开工率 has slightly increased, and the supply may increase with new capacity. Demand is weak in the short term but may be boosted during the peak seasons. The market is expected to trade in a range [16][17]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 has decreased, and the downstream demand is gradually improving, especially in the agricultural film sector. The market is expected to trade in a range [18]. PVC - The PVC开工率 has decreased, and demand is weak, especially affected by the real estate market. Exports are expected to decline, and inventory pressure is high. The market is expected to decline [19][20]. Coking Coal - The price of coking coal has declined. The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by factors such as environmental protection and the steel industry. The market sentiment is volatile, and the market is expected to be downward - biased [21]. Urea - The price of urea has declined. The supply is stable, and domestic demand is weak, with high inventory levels. The market is expected to be bearish in the short term [22][23].

南华原油市场日报 ——油价反弹修复，但缺乏实质性利好支撑 2025年8月22日 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 盘面反弹修复，原油市场延续短线反弹态势，7月以来的横盘震荡格局得以巩固，虽无新驱动因素，但重心 小幅上移，主要归因于三方面：一是俄乌局势进展放缓，市场对局势快速降温的预期减弱，地缘溢价存在 情绪修复；二是需求仍处季节性峰值，拐点尚未显现，提供必要支撑；三是欧美原油进入移仓换月阶段， 近月空头减仓与远月多头增仓的仓位调整形成技术性支撑。不过，宏观情绪偏负面，恐慌指数低位抬升、 美股高位回调，未对原油形成利好。展望后市，8月下旬后需求将随美国夏季出行结束及炼厂秋检进入季节 性下滑通道，而OPEC+9月会议若如预期决定10月暂停增产，短期或提振情绪，但因产量配额已处高位，叠 加需求下滑，供需失衡压力将使基本面对原油呈利空导向。同时，美联储9月降息预期概率降至75%，年底 降息预期次数缩减。整体来看，近期反弹缺乏实质性利好支撑，上行空间有限，未来逻辑中性偏空，需警 惕下行风险及宏观情绪波动带来的影响。 【多空分析】 一、多头 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [4] - Report Type: Weekly Report on Energy and Chemicals Sector - Author: Chen Dong [4] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector showed a trend of oscillating and stabilizing. The rebound of crude oil futures strengthened the cost support for downstream products, boosting the performance of the aromatic hydrocarbon, polyolefin, and oil - chemical sectors. [4] - Methanol futures rebounded after a significant decline, but the port inventory accumulation trend continued, and there were still upward resistance. Fuel oil and asphalt also had a slight inventory increase. [4] - In the aromatic hydrocarbon sector, PTA had a slight inventory increase, while ethylene glycol had a slight inventory decrease. In the polyolefin sector, plastics, PVC, polypropylene, and styrene all showed a slight inventory increase. [4] - With the improvement of the macro - environment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors outweighed industrial factors. Although there was inventory pressure in the energy and chemical sector, it did not prevent the sector from oscillating and stabilizing this week. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemical Sector - The overall trend of the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector this week was oscillating and stabilizing, affected by cost support and macro - environment changes. [4] Rubber - There are data charts on rubber, including rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory, and tire (full - steel and semi - steel)开工率. [6][7][9] Methanol - Data charts cover methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin开工率, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting. [19][21][23] Crude Oil - Charts show crude oil basis, futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery开工率, and net position changes of WTI and Brent crude oil. [32][34][36] Fuel Oil - There are charts on the basis of domestic high - sulfur fuel oil, monthly spread, domestic production from 2016 - 2025, Singapore inventory from 2020 - 2025, global shipping index from 2022 - 2025, and futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. [47][48][50] Asphalt - Data includes domestic asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, monthly spread, domestic production from 2016 - 2025, import volume from 2020 - 2025, domestic refinery asphalt装置开工率, and weekly inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange from 2016 - 2025. [61][62][64] PTA - Charts show domestic PTA basis from 2020 - 2025, 9 - 1 month spread,装置开工率, weekly production, enterprise weekly inventory, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts. [72][74][76] Ethylene Glycol - Data includes ethylene glycol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic开工率 from 2021 - 2025, weekly production, polyester industry chain开工率, and East China inventory from 2018 - 2025. [90][87][92] Styrene - There are charts on styrene basis from 2020 - 2025, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic开工率 from 2016 - 2025, factory inventory, registered warehouse receipts, and East + South China port inventory from 2020 - 2025. [99][100][102] Plastic - Data includes LLDPE basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic PE and LLDPE monthly production from 2019 - 2025, polyethylene import volume from 2018 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange plastic warehouse receipts, and domestic plastic products data. [111][114][115] PP - Charts show polypropylene basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Taiwan's polypropylene production from 2010 - 2025, domestic PP import volume from 2016 - 2025, domestic downstream开工率, and domestic polypropylene warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025. [133][124][126] PVC - Data includes domestic PVC basis from 2019 - 2025, 9 - 1 month spread, ethylene production from 2016 - 2025, domestic PVC import volume from 2018 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange PVC warehouse receipts, and housing completion and sales area cumulative value from 2018 - 2025. [135][136][138]