Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the positive performance of Japanese companies, there are risks associated with U.S. tariffs that need to be monitored closely [1] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is maintaining an accommodative monetary policy as it approaches its inflation target, but has not fully achieved it yet [1][2] - There is a moderate upward trend in capital expenditure according to the BOJ's short-term economic observation survey, with no significant changes reported [1] Group 2 - High inflation in the U.S. and actions by the Federal Reserve are critical factors that the BOJ plans to monitor closely in the coming months [1] - The BOJ is considering further adjustments to its monetary easing measures if corporate positive behavior can be confirmed to continue [2] - The Japanese economy is nearing its price stability target, with expectations of moderate consumption growth and improving corporate profits [2]

日本央行审议委员高田创：在美国关税影响变得更加明确之前，很难准确预测日本央行的通胀目标何时 能够完全实现。 ...

日本央行审议委员高田创：国内因素显示日本经济正朝着完全实现日本央行的通胀目标迈进，但同时受 到外部因素的巨大压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is close to achieving its inflation target but has not fully reached it, thus it needs to maintain its accommodative monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan's committee member Takeda Sho states that the current monetary policy remains necessary due to the incomplete achievement of the inflation target [1]

日本央行审议委员高田创：日本央行的通胀目标接近实现。日本经济最终经历了几次短暂的经济反弹， 这些复苏被全球需求冲击所中断。 ...

欧洲央行管委雷恩表示，欧洲央行目前处于良好的位置，但没有理由掉以轻心；不能让低于预期的通胀 改变市场预期； 汇率并非政策目标；欧元升值帮助欧洲央行实现了2%的通胀目标。 ...

英国央行货币政策委员泰勒：当前的风险在于通胀目标被低估。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces increasing risks of inflation remaining below target due to economic weakness in the second quarter [1] Group 1 - The risk of inflation being below the target is greater than the risk of it being above the target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has conducted a strategic assessment of its monetary policy in response to significant changes in the market environment, including geopolitical conflicts, rapid advancements in digitalization and artificial intelligence, demographic shifts, climate crises, and a profound restructuring of the international financial system [1][2]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Strategy - The ECB's assessment addresses the need to optimize its economic evaluation framework, policy tools, and decision-making mechanisms in a "non-transparent and unstable" new normal [1]. - A significant adjustment in this assessment is the clarification and reinforcement of the inflation target, acknowledging past "substantial and persistent deviations" from the target [1]. Inflation Target - The inflation target is set at "significantly above 0%" (specifically 2%), which is crucial for ensuring that policy rates have sufficient "buffer space" to respond to negative shocks [2]. - The ECB emphasizes that the 2% target provides a "clear anchor" for inflation expectations while demonstrating pragmatic flexibility [2]. Policy Tools and Decision-Making - Adjustments to policy rates remain the primary tool, but the ECB is prepared to utilize other instruments such as long-term refinancing operations, asset purchases, negative interest rates, and forward guidance when necessary [3]. - The ECB has formally integrated scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis into its policy decision-making process, moving away from solely relying on baseline forecasts [3].

Core Viewpoint - ECB President Lagarde expressed caution regarding future monetary policy, emphasizing that while inflation targets have been met, the overall mission is not complete [1][2]. Inflation - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2%, aligning with the ECB's target, indicating that inflation goals have been achieved [2][3]. Interest Rate Path - Lagarde stated that the interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end, but no pre-commitment to future rate changes will be made, with decisions to be based on data from each meeting [3][4]. - Current market expectations suggest a nearly 50% probability of another rate cut in September [3]. Neutral Interest Rate - Lagarde downplayed the significance of discussing the Eurozone's neutral interest rate, suggesting it may be higher than in the past and that current discussions are somewhat unrealistic given the existing economic conditions [4]. Dollar Status - Lagarde indicated that 2025 could be a pivotal year for the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, acknowledging existing fractures but noting that significant changes will take time [5][6]. - The ECB sees an opportunity for the euro to play a larger international role amid a weakening dollar and urges governments to advance reforms for deeper capital markets [5]. Digital Euro - Lagarde reiterated the importance of a digital euro, emphasizing that currency is a public good and warning against the privatization of money, which could undermine monetary policy and national sovereignty [7]. Challenges and Opportunities in Europe - Lagarde highlighted significant challenges facing Europe, such as reduced protection from the U.S. and declining cheap energy, but also noted these could present new opportunities [8]. - She expressed hope that 2025 will be a transformative year for lifestyle and business models in Europe, contingent on political action [8].