盾博发现在全球金融市场的剧烈波动中，美债收益率作为衡量经济预期与货币政策走向的关键指标，始终 是投资者关注的焦点。近日，摩根大通由 Jay Barry 牵头的策略师团队发布最新预测，大幅上调对美国 10 年期国债收益率和两年期国债收益率 2025 年年底的预期，引发市场广泛热议。其中，10 年期国债收益率 预期从先前的 4% 上调至 4.35%，两年期国债收益率预期也从 3% 提升至 3.5%。这一调整不仅体现了华尔 街大行对美国经济前景的重新评估，更折射出贸易局势缓和背景下，货币政策与市场预期之间的复杂博 弈。 经济基本面的改善直接影响了市场对美联储货币政策的预期。长期以来，市场普遍认为美联储将通过降息 来刺激经济增长，但随着美国经济因贸易局势缓和而展现出更强韧性，美联储的货币政策路径出现了明显 转变信号。此前，摩根大通的经济学家们已经将美联储降息时间的预期从 9 月份推后至 12 月份，而此次 策略师对美债收益率预期的上调，进一步印证了市场对美联储延迟降息的判断。在经济增长提速的背景 下，美联储更倾向于维持现有利率水平，以避免因过早降息引发通胀压力，这也使得债券市场收益率曲线 随之发生变化。 从债券市场的 ...

墨西哥降息50个基点 【导读】墨西哥央行下调基准利率至8.00% 当地时间5月15日，墨西哥央行宣布降息。 他强调，美国对墨西哥的关税问题仍未解决，且即将展开的《美墨加协定》(USMCA)审查结果也存在 高度不确定性，这将继续对墨西哥的出口导向型经济构成压力。 不过，有分析人士认为，特朗普政府若继续推行保护主义政策，可能加剧墨西哥在贸易和制造业方面的 挑战。短期内，由于部分供应链活动向北美转移，墨西哥仍有望从中受益。 鲍威尔：未来通胀波动加剧 当地时间5月15日，墨西哥央行宣布，将基准利率下调50个基点至8.00%。 墨西哥央行表示，在未来的货币政策会议上可能继续以类似幅度降息。 墨西哥央行委员会预计，尽管维持限制性立场，但通胀环境将允许继续维持降息周期。在预测期限内， 通胀走势的风险平衡仍偏向上行。 墨西哥央行提到，虽然通货膨胀走势的风险平衡已有所改善，但在预测期限内，通胀走势的风险平衡仍 偏向上行。总体通胀率将在2026年第三季度趋向目标水平。2026年第四季度平均年度总体通货膨胀率为 3.0%，与之前3.0%的预期相同。预测2025年第四季度平均年度总体通货膨胀率为3.3%，与之前3.3%的 预测相同。 ...

从关税的实际影响来看，即便谈判取得一定进展，关税问题依旧是悬在经济头上的 "达摩克利斯之 剑"。耶鲁大学预算实验室的估计数据令人警醒，平均有效关税率将达到 17.8%，这一数字相较于特朗 普开始第二任期时的约 2.5% 大幅攀升。如此高的关税，会直接加剧通胀压力，同时对经济增长形成阻 碍。据测算，这足以使物价水平上升约 1.7%，失业率上升 0.35%，对美国经济的稳定运行造成冲击。 再者，90 天的关税暂停期非但没有消除不确定性，反而延长了这种不稳定状态。只要贸易谈判一天不 结束，企业就会因未来的不确定性而采取保守策略，推迟采购、投资和招聘决策。这种观望态度会导致 经济活动放缓，抑制经济的活力与增长动力。 对于美联储而言，其面临的抉择堪称艰难。在对抗通胀与支持经济增长之间，美联储必须小心翼翼地寻 找平衡。短期内，美联储只能保持耐心，维持利率稳定，并密切关注通胀预期。但这一策略很可能招致 总统的不满，因为稳定利率可能无法满足刺激经济增长的短期需求。而这种谨慎的态度，极有可能导致 美联储对经济疲软的反应滞后，无法及时采取有效措施应对潜在的经济下滑风险。 STARTRADER发现本周，全球投资者因贸易紧张局势缓和 ...

Group 1 - The budget deficit for Ontario is projected to be CAD 14.6 billion for the fiscal year 2025-26, and CAD 6 billion for 2024-25 [1] - A deficit of CAD 7.8 billion is expected for the fiscal year 2026-27, with a moderate surplus anticipated for 2027-28 [1] - Economic growth is expected to slow to 0.8% in 2025, down from 1.5% in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The net debt to GDP ratio is projected to rise to 37.9% by the fiscal year 2025-26 and to 38.9% by 2026-27 [1]

英国国家统计局15日公布的数据显示,今年第一季度英国国内生产总值环比增长0.7%，超出市场预期。 数据显示，服务业继续成为推动英国经济增长的重要动力。第一季度，英国服务业环比增长0.7%，制 造业环比增长1.1%，而建筑业环比持平。 由于增税给雇主带来的负担以及美国政府关税的影响，英国就业市场在上个月再次降温，这可能会让英 国央行在通胀压力减弱方面感到些许安心。本周二公布的临时税务局数据显示，继3月份雇员人数减少 4.7万人之后，4月份雇员人数减少了近3.3万人。 在截至4月份的3个月里，职位空缺数量下降了4.2万个，创下一年多来的最大降幅，总数降至76.1万个， 进一步低于大流行前的水平。与此同时，英国3月剔除红利3个月平均工资——英国央行追踪的用于衡量 国内通胀压力的指标——同比增长5.6%，不及经济学家预期的5.7%和前值5.9%，为截至去年11月以来 的3个月最低增幅。 北京商报综合报道 桑斯伯里超市的一名工作人员正在工作。 英国财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯表示，一季度增速凸显英国经济增长的强劲势头和潜力。但分析人士指 出，美国关税政策的影响将从第二季度开始显现，未来英国经济形势还有待观察。3月，英国经济环 ...

金十数据5月15日讯，汇丰银行在一份报告中说，鉴于最近全球的不确定性，英国经济增长在第一季度 增长0.7%超出预期之后，可能只会走下坡路。在一次性投资的推动下，投资强劲有所帮助，但从可能 的出口前期负荷来看，第二季度贸易可能出现下滑。此外，水电费上涨以及工资税和最低工资上调导致 的企业劳动力成本也将受到冲击。不过，第一季度的经济增长仍然不错，特别是考虑到通胀下降和劳动 力市场仍然有弹性。预计经济增长0.6%的英国央行将把这解读为其"谨慎而渐进"的降息方式的有力支 撑。 英国强劲的经济增长并不能阻挡经济放缓的到来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, stated that while increased defense spending is expected to boost economic growth, it may also exacerbate fiscal vulnerabilities [1] Group 1 - Increased defense spending is anticipated to have a positive impact on economic growth [1] - There is a concern that heightened defense expenditures could lead to greater fiscal fragility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong economic growth in Switzerland during the first quarter of the year reduces the likelihood of the Swiss National Bank lowering interest rates into negative territory after a potential cut to zero [1] Economic Growth - Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, marking the fastest growth since the beginning of 2023 [1] - This growth is not attributed to pre-tariff stockpiling behaviors seen in Ireland and other European countries, as indicated by the Swiss National Bank's data showing a narrowing trade surplus in January and February [1] Future Outlook - Despite the current growth, there are concerns that trade uncertainties may slow down growth in the future, although it is expected to remain stronger than that of peers [1] - The cooling of inflation, along with increased household spending and real income, is anticipated to provide support for the economy [1]

2025年初欧元区经济增长弱于预期，尽管出口在特朗普关税前增加 金十数据5月15日讯，尽管由于美国公司在征收贸易关税之前争相囤积进口商品，推动了工厂产出的增 长，但欧元区经济的增长速度低于年初的预期。欧盟统计局周四公布的数据显示，第一季度欧元区GDP 季率修正值为0.3%。初值为0.4%。整个季度工业生产的持续增长推动了经济增长。欧盟统计局称，3月 份产出环比增长2.6%，这一增幅远高于经济学家预期的1.1%，标志着连续第三个月产出增长。欧洲工 业强国德国和医药生产中心爱尔兰3月份的产出增长超过3%，推动了3月份产出的增长，爱尔兰的产量 比前一个月增长了约15%。这两个经济体是欧元区受特朗普总统的贸易关税影响最大的经济体，它们的 工厂产出激增表明，美国进口商在特朗普总统4月初提出的一揽子关税计划出台之前囤积库存。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the easing of tariff and geopolitical risks, precious metals in the Shanghai market dropped significantly. The short - term outlook for gold is a major negative, with the possibility of the Fed's preventive interest rate cut decreasing and the rate - cut time likely to be postponed to after September. Although the medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectation is positive for gold and there is significant buying support from continuous inflows into gold ETFs, gold may remain under pressure in the short term. Silver has some support from its industrial and commodity attributes but may still be weak due to the linkage effect with gold. It is recommended to wait and see, and specific price ranges for different contracts are provided [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 739.82 yuan/gram, down 21.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8008 yuan/kilogram, down 187 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 211,188 hands, down 3,590 hands; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 342,882 hands, up 62,114 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 106,847 hands, down 1,171 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 122,646 hands, down 13,699 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 17,238 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 914,782 kilograms, down 4,681 kilograms [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 737 yuan/gram, down 21.51 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8026 yuan/kilogram, down 138 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 2.82 yuan/gram, up 0.39 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 18 yuan/kilogram, up 49 yuan [2]. Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 936.51 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings were 13,971.47 tons, down 28.28 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 162,497 contracts, down 821 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 49,252 contracts, down 691 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 31.99%, up 1.56 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 25.76%, up 1.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was - 1.13, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 26.62% (previous value 26.61%, change - 1.13) [2]. Industry News - China suspended 28 US entities from the export control list for 90 days and 17 US entities from the unreliable entity list for 90 days. In April, global physical gold ETFs had a strong inflow of about $11 billion, and the total asset management scale of global gold ETFs reached $379 billion at the end of April. Asia had a large inflow of about $7.3 billion, with China being the main driver. Trump visited Qatar and signed multiple cooperation agreements, expected to bring at least $1.2 trillion in economic exchanges. The first - round cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine will start in Turkey, and the easing of the situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold. The Fed's attitude towards inflation and economic data was also mentioned [2].