Group 1 - OpenAI is set to develop a significant project by 2025, which may have implications for the tech industry and investment opportunities [1] - The announcement of the 2025 Nobel Prize will take place on October 6, which could influence market sentiment and investment strategies [1] - The Chinese official reserve assets for September will be released on October 7, providing insights into the country's economic health [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is conducting a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a proactive monetary policy stance [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has allowed qualified foreign investors to participate in on-market trading for hedging purposes, which may attract more foreign capital [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange is fully implementing the "920" trading system, which could enhance market efficiency [2]

10月4日，欢迎来到股市早观点，我们来看看今天有哪些消息热点？ "我的看法是，如果政策偏离轨道，就应该以一个相当迅速的节奏进行调整。就当前的利率政策而 言，"我们还没到那种维持一天就会出现危机的地步，但如果再维持一年不变，那我觉得确实会出现问 题。" 关注我，更多股市资讯告诉你！ 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰(Stephen Miran)再次呼吁该行采取更激进的降息路径，他认为美国经济已经在特 朗普政府的政策下发生了重大变化。 米兰表示，美联储有充足空间降息，距离零利率下限仍很遥远。但他也强调，他与其他官员在货币政策 前景上的分歧并不像外界认为的那样大。当地时间周五（10月3日)，米兰在接受采访时说道： ...

10月3日公布的数据显示，美国9月ISM非制造业PMI从前值52大幅下滑至50，已经处于滑入萎缩区间的临界 点。这反映出美国的服务业正在恶化，而服务业是支撑美国经济的重要支柱。 同日，由于美国政府停摆，本来安排公布的美国9月非农就业数据未公布。不过，按照市场对9月非农就业数 据的预期值，该数据仍然处于相当低的水平。 在前期的讲话中，包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的一些市场人士都警告，美国经济存在下行风险。这也正是美 联储在过去的9月议息会议上重启降息的重要依据。市场普遍认为，美联储在即将召开的10月议息会议上仍 然会降息25个基点。 然而，货币政策对于经济的影响具有一定的滞后性，况且每次25个基点的小幅降息能够在多大程度上支撑美 国经济也存在很大的疑问。 笔者认为，在鲍威尔明年5月卸任美联储主席之前，美联储会仍然对货币政策秉持非常谨慎的态度，快速和 大幅的降息举措很难出现。在这样的情况下，美国经济将会承受更大的负面压力，不排除出现"黑天鹅事 件"的可能性。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市场的 准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversy surrounding Kevin Hassett's defense of the Federal Reserve's independence while simultaneously justifying President Trump's criticisms of it, highlighting the complex stance within the Trump administration regarding the Fed's independence and its implications for future monetary policy direction [1]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Hassett's first accusation is that the Federal Reserve's inflation predictions in 2021 demonstrate partisan bias, claiming that the Fed allowed inflation to spiral out of control under the Biden administration [2]. - Timiraos points out that during Biden's presidency, five out of six Federal Reserve governors were appointed during Trump's first term, including current Chair Jerome Powell, indicating a lack of partisan bias in the Fed's composition [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Timiraos notes that the Federal Reserve began significantly raising interest rates once it recognized that its monetary policy was off track, with Biden-appointed governors filling positions starting in the second quarter of 2022 [3]. - The Fed announced a tapering of bond purchases on November 3, 2021, prior to Biden's reappointment of Powell, suggesting that the decision to tighten policy was not solely dependent on the timing of Powell's nomination [4]. Group 3: Election-Year Rate Cuts - Hassett's third claim is that the Fed unexpectedly cut rates before the last election to aid the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, a viewpoint that Hassett did not express at the time and later defended as a wise decision based on available data [5].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching all-time highs. The Dow rose by 1.1%, the Nasdaq by 1.32%, and the S&P 500 by 1.09% during the week [1] - On Friday, the Dow closed up 238.56 points, or 0.51%, at 46,758.28 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 63.54 points, or 0.28%, to 22,780.51 points. The S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.44 points, or 0.01%, to 6,715.79 points [1] Individual Stock Movements - USA Rare Earth saw a significant increase of 14.3%, while Nano Nuclear Energy rose by 6.7%. In contrast, Tesla fell by 1.4%, Ford gained 3.6%, AMD dropped approximately 3%, and Intel decreased by 1.26% [1] - Walmart's fintech subsidiary OnePay plans to launch cryptocurrency services, allowing users to trade Bitcoin and Ethereum, enhancing its "super app" strategy [9] European Market Performance - The DAX30 index in Germany fell by 50.90 points, or 0.21%, while the FTSE 100 in the UK rose by 59.32 points, or 0.63%. The CAC40 in France increased by 24.91 points, or 0.31% [2] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.7% to nearly $61 per barrel, but fell by 7.4% over the week. Brent crude oil also saw a slight increase of 0.7%, closing at $64.53 per barrel [2] - Spot gold increased by 0.81% to $3,886.71 per ounce, with HSBC predicting a potential rise above $4,000 per ounce due to geopolitical risks and fiscal uncertainties [3] Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs reported a slight increase in initial jobless claims to 224,000, indicating a rise from the previous week's 218,000 [4] - Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about inflation and employment, with discussions on adjusting monetary policy based on housing costs and economic uncertainties [5][6] Corporate Tax Proposals - Senator Bernie Moreno indicated that President Trump is considering significant tariff reductions for U.S. auto production, which could alleviate costs for major manufacturers like Ford and Tesla [7] Major Bank Ratings - Wells Fargo raised the target price for Ford from $8 to $10, while Deutsche Bank lowered Procter & Gamble's target price from $177 to $175 [10]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for a more aggressive interest rate cut path, believing significant changes have occurred in the U.S. economy under the Trump administration [1] - Miran states that the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut rates, as it is still far from the zero lower bound, but emphasizes that his views on monetary policy do not differ greatly from other officials [1] - In an interview, Miran expressed that if monetary policy deviates from the intended path, adjustments should be made swiftly, indicating that maintaining the current policy for an extended period could lead to issues [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government's latest employment report was delayed due to Congress's failure to reach a budget agreement, but Miran is not concerned as there is still time before the next Federal Reserve meeting at the end of October [2] - During the September decision, while other officials agreed to a 25 basis point rate cut, Miran voted against it, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, suggesting a more aggressive dovish stance that may distance him from most decision-makers [2] - Miran believes that the current financial conditions are not entirely accommodative, citing that housing finance remains relatively tight, despite concerns that aggressive rate cuts could further inflate asset prices in a volatile financial market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversy surrounding Kevin Hassett's defense of the Federal Reserve's independence while simultaneously justifying President Trump's criticisms of it, highlighting the complexities within the Trump administration regarding this sensitive topic [1]. Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Hassett's first accusation is that the Federal Reserve's inflation predictions in 2021 demonstrate partisan bias, claiming that the Fed allowed inflation to spiral out of control under the Biden administration [2]. - Timiraos points out that during Biden's presidency, five out of six Federal Reserve governors were appointed during Trump's first term, including current Chair Jerome Powell, indicating a lack of partisan bias in the appointments [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Timiraos notes that once the Federal Reserve recognized its monetary policy was off track, it began to raise interest rates significantly, with Biden-appointed governors filling positions starting in the second quarter of 2022 [3]. - The first significant rate hike of 75 basis points occurred in June 2022, with subsequent hikes also supported by the newly appointed governors [3]. Group 3: Timing of Policy Tightening - Hassett's second claim is that the Federal Reserve only began tightening monetary policy after Biden nominated Powell for a second term, which was announced on November 22, 2021 [4]. - Timiraos counters that the Fed had already announced a tapering of bond purchases on November 3, 2021, indicating that the decision to tighten was not solely dependent on Biden's nomination [4]. Group 4: Election-Year Rate Cuts - Hassett's third accusation is that the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut rates before the last election to aid Democratic candidate Kamala Harris [5]. - Timiraos highlights that Hassett did not express this view at the time and had previously defended the rate cut as a wise decision based on available data [5]. Group 5: Historical Perspective on Decisions - Hassett acknowledged in a later interview that while the rate cut might be viewed as a mistake in hindsight, it is essential to consider the context in which policymakers made their decisions [6].

Group 1 - The UK service sector activity significantly slowed down in September, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from 54.2 in August to 50.8, marking the lowest level in five months and nearing the threshold of economic contraction [1] - The slowdown is attributed to persistent high inflation and uncertainty regarding future policies, leading businesses and households to adopt a more cautious spending approach [1] - The UK government is facing a tight fiscal situation, with the Chancellor planning to announce the annual budget in late November, raising concerns about balancing fiscal deficit reduction and economic growth [1] Group 2 - Employment in the service sector has been experiencing layoffs for a year, reflecting a lack of confidence among businesses regarding future prospects [1] - The Bank of England faces uncertainty regarding monetary policy direction, with debates on whether to lower interest rates amidst fluctuating inflation rates [2] - The UK economy has been under pressure from high inflation, elevated interest rates, and unresolved trade tensions post-Brexit, indicating that future economic performance will heavily depend on government budget policies and central bank interest rate decisions [2]

Core Viewpoint - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, argues that central banks' use of balance sheet policies should not be viewed as "unconventional tools" [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Understanding - Williams emphasizes that the common understanding of monetary policy is too narrow, focusing primarily on setting short-term interest rates [1] - He states that this limited view contradicts the historical practices of central banks and monetary economics [1] Group 2: Criticism of Asset Purchases - The Federal Reserve faces criticism regarding its asset purchases and the overall size of its balance sheet, which is currently approximately $6.6 trillion [1] - Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, describes large-scale asset purchases as distorting the market and interfering with the Fed's independence [1] - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and potential candidate for the next Fed chair, has consistently criticized the Fed's bond-buying programs, especially during non-crisis periods [1] Group 3: Effectiveness of Asset Purchases - Williams cites economic research indicating that asset purchases remain effective even when short-term interest rates are very low [1] - He asserts that these policies are not merely "emergency" or "crisis-response" measures but align with long-standing monetary policy theory and practice [1] - The timing and manner of implementing these policies depend on specific circumstances and the risks faced by policymakers, which is a matter of strategy and execution rather than principle [1]

Group 1 - The recent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market have seen the USD/JPY exchange rate strengthen to around 147.75 after previously touching 146.57, attracting significant market attention [1] - Japan's unemployment rate for August has risen to 2.6%, higher than both previous values and market expectations, impacting the yen's performance during Asian trading hours [1] - The political environment in Japan, particularly the results of the ruling party leadership election, is under scrutiny as it may influence future policy directions [1] Group 2 - Asian markets are reflecting the overnight performance of US stocks, with assessments of the potential economic impact of the US government shutdown being a focal point [3] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, has emphasized the need to maintain a loose monetary environment while indicating a potential policy adjustment if economic and price trends align with expectations, keeping market attention on future policy directions [3] - Expectations regarding US monetary policy have shifted, with some market participants anticipating interest rate cuts, influenced by comments from the Dallas Fed President regarding persistent inflation and signs of slowing job growth [3] Group 3 - The current exchange rate market is influenced by multiple factors, with differences in monetary policy being a significant observation dimension [4] - Short-term factors are exerting pressure on the yen, but deeper changes in monetary policy are forming important impacts [4]