Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a stable yet progressive approach to economic work, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements while implementing proactive macro policies [2][3][21] - The meeting highlighted the importance of a multi-dimensional policy system that covers both supply and demand, aiming for a transformation in economic growth dynamics through domestic demand and innovation [14][18] - The report outlines the significance of institutionalizing the leadership of the Communist Party in the rule of law, enhancing the governance system and capacity modernization [18][21] Group 2 - The report suggests that the economic work for the upcoming year will adhere to the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," with a focus on quality enhancement and efficiency [3][21] - It emphasizes the need for a coordinated policy approach that integrates fiscal, monetary, industrial, and technological policies to effectively support the real economy [13][14] - The report identifies key areas for future investment opportunities, including domestic demand-driven sectors, innovation-driven industries, and the financial sector [22]

Group 1: Investment in Physical Capital - China's capital stock reached approximately $93 trillion in 2024, accounting for about 503% of GDP[29] - The average growth rate of capital stock from 1961 to 1993 was about 5.2%, while from 1994 to 2016 it was approximately 10.8%, and is projected to decline to 5.8% by 2024[29] - In 2024, the total capital formation in China is estimated to be around 54.8 trillion yuan, contributing approximately 25.2% to GDP growth[2] Group 2: Investment in Human Capital - Investment in human capital focuses on enhancing capabilities across the entire population, including education, healthcare, and skills training[47] - The proportion of public spending on social welfare in China was 53.7% in 2023, compared to 60%-70% in developed countries, indicating significant room for improvement[6] - The government aims to increase the share of public investment in social welfare during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in areas like education and healthcare[44] Group 3: Economic and Social Development - The urbanization rate in China is expected to reach 70% within five years, with a projected rate of about 67% in 2024, driving infrastructure and public service improvements[42] - The report emphasizes the need for a balanced approach between investment in physical and human capital to foster sustainable economic growth[1] - The government plans to enhance public services in nine key areas, including education, healthcare, and social security, to ensure equitable access for all citizens[52]

(经济观察)定调2026年经济工作 中央政治局会议传递有力信号 支撑这一判断有多个理由。 首先，放眼全球，前三季度中国经济5.2%的增长水平在主要经济体中名列前茅。其中，三季度中国经 济总量达35.5万亿元人民币，超过全球第三大经济体2024年全年经济总量。 其次，中国力推经济结构调整、新旧动能转换，效果正在显现。最新数据显示，中国高技术制造业采购 经理指数(PMI)已连续10个月位于临界点以上，相关行业持续保持增长。此次会议亦表示，过去一年"新 质生产力稳步发展"。 把时间尺度拉长，会议还给出判断：过去5年，中国经济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、制度、外交等 软实力明显提升，"十四五"即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 布局2026："高要求"谋划"十五五"良好开局 中新社北京12月8日电 题：定调2026年经济工作 中央政治局会议传递有力信号 中新社记者 王恩博 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，传递出实现"十五五"良好开局的有力信 号。 总结2025：主要目标将顺利实现 从年末回望，如何在内外复杂环境中实现稳定且高质量的增长，是2025年中国经济的一条主线。 ...

宏 观 研 究 中央政治局会议学习理解 国 内 经 济 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 2025 年 12 月 08 日 实现"十五五"良好开局 —— 12 月中央政治局会议学习理解 事件：12 月 8 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国共产党 领导全面依法治国工作条例》。 政治局会议在基调上有何亮点？统筹经济工作和经贸斗争、重视政策效果和经济增长 会议重提 2025 年 4 月政治局会议首提的"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，凸显对 外部环境不确定性的关注与内部发展稳定性的重视。这一表述在 2024 年 12 月会议"更好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to domestic economic work and international economic struggles, highlighting the importance of policy effectiveness and economic growth [3][12]. Economic Policy Focus - The meeting reiterates the importance of "better coordinating domestic economic work and international economic struggles," reflecting concerns about external uncertainties and internal stability [3][12]. - The phrase "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" replaces "stabilizing through progress," indicating a focus on the quality, efficiency, and sustainability of policies [3][12]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to maintain an expansionary orientation with an anticipated deficit rate around 4%, with slight expansions in special bonds compared to 2025 [3][12]. Economic Growth Targets - The meeting sets a goal for economic growth, aiming for nominal and real GDP growth rates of approximately 4% and 4.4%, respectively, to achieve a doubling of economic output and per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 [4][13]. Policy Changes - New emphasis on "proactive targeting and coordination" in policy deployment, indicating a shift towards more integrated fiscal and monetary policies [4][14]. - The focus on domestic demand is reinforced, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to accelerate [5][14]. Reform and Market Development - The meeting stresses the importance of reform, particularly in advancing the construction of a unified national market, which includes standardizing market regulations and eliminating local protectionism [5][15]. - The focus on "people's livelihood" remains a priority, with policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [6][15]. Consumer and Investment Focus - The meeting highlights the need to increase the household consumption rate, with a specific target to address the gap in per capita service consumption compared to pre-pandemic levels [5][14]. - Investment policies are expected to support new infrastructure projects, particularly in digital infrastructure, aligning with the "15th Five-Year Plan" goals [5][14].

2025 年 12 月 08 日 再提"实现量的合理增长" ——2025 年 12 月政治局会议点评 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com A 股 策 略 - 证券分析师 ⚫ 本次政治局会议工作基调与年中保持一致，重点强调"坚持稳中求进工作总基调，统筹发 展和安全"的同时提出了"增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做 优增量、盘活存量" 。结构方面再次强调"因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统 一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险"。细节方面可以看到，2025 年连续两次政 治局会议提及"实现量的合理增长"，时隔半年政治局会议再提"更好统 ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有， ，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/12/8 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 项目类别 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22,275.00 | -70.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,585.00 | +30.00↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -100.00 | -30.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -63.00 | -20.00↓ | 主力合约 ...

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/12/8 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 94,840.00 | +2680.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -167,807.00 | -7199.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 593,129.00 | +32453.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -540.00 | -200.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 13,120.00 | + ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: December 8, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Shanghai Copper Industry Daily Report - **Researcher**: Chen Sijia [3] - **Futures Qualification Number**: F03118799 [3] - **Investment Consultation Certificate Number**: Z0022803 [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The processing fee index of copper concentrate declined again, increasing concerns about tight copper supply. The supply of refined copper in China maintained a growth trend, while short - term high copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment. However, year - end sales sprints of car manufacturers and power system rush - work provided some demand resilience for Shanghai copper, and social inventory still slightly decreased. The option market sentiment was bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 - axis with the initial appearance of a red column. The report suggested light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 92,970 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; LME 3 - month copper was 11,692 dollars/ton, up 71.5 dollars [2] - **Spreads and Positions**: The inter - month spread of the main contract was - 60 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 230,045 lots, down 6,449 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 34,429 lots, up 10,129 lots [2] - **Inventories**: LME copper inventory was 162,550 tons, down 275 tons; SHFE cathode copper inventory was 88,905 tons, down 9,025 tons; SHFE cathode copper warrants were 29,956 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - **Prices**: SMM 1 copper spot price was 92,300 yuan/ton, up 715 yuan; Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 92,175 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan [2] - **Premiums**: Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) was 46 dollars/ton, unchanged; Yangshan copper average premium was 41 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars; the basis of the CU main contract was - 670 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan; LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 23.05 dollars/ton, down 27.39 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - **Imports and Fees**: The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.4515 million tons, down 135,600 tons; the copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 42.86 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars [2] - **Prices**: Copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi were 82,470 yuan/metal ton, up 730 yuan; in Yunnan, they were 83,170 yuan/metal ton, up 730 yuan; the southern processing fee for blister copper was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - **Production and Imports**: The production of refined copper was 1.204 million tons, down 62,000 tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons [2] - **Inventories and Prices**: Social copper inventory was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 62,440 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 76,450 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan [2] - **By - product Price**: The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of copper products was 2.004 million tons, down 228,000 tons; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,177,000,000 pieces, down 194,236,100 pieces [2] - **Investment**: The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction was 482.434 billion yuan, up 44.627 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 7,356.27 billion yuan, up 585.699 billion yuan [2] Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 13.55%, down 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.70%, down 0.26% [2] - **Implied Volatility and Ratio**: The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option was 22.4%, up 0.0201%; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.15, down 0.0529 [2] Industry News - **US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index in September increased 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. Real personal consumption expenditure in September was flat month - on - month. The one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in December dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since January this year, and the five - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.2%. The US White House National Economic Council Director said it was a good time for the Fed to "cautiously cut interest rates" and expected action next week [2] - **Chinese Policy**: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will implement a special consumption - boosting action, expand service consumption, actively expand independent opening - up, and promote trade innovation and two - way investment cooperation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" for the automotive industry aims to promote domestic automobile sales to exceed 35 million units, with a new energy vehicle penetration rate exceeding 70% and the popularization of high - level intelligent driving [2] - **US Economic Forecast**: The US Treasury Secretary predicted that the US GDP growth rate this year would reach 3%, and the inflation rate would drop significantly next year, with the bond market having its best performance since 2020 [2]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of advancing high-end instruments and key core technologies as part of China's 15th Five-Year Plan [3][4][5] Group 1: National Strategy - The Ministry of Science and Technology highlighted the need for a full-chain approach to tackle key core technologies in high-end instruments [3] - The central government has issued strategic directives to enhance technological innovation across various sectors, including high-end instruments, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing [4] Group 2: Regional Policies - Shandong Province's plan includes accelerating major technological innovation projects and overcoming critical common technologies in fields such as high-end instruments and advanced manufacturing [4] - Guangdong Province aims to strengthen strategic technological support and achieve breakthroughs in key areas like integrated circuits and high-end instruments through a robust laboratory system [4] - Chongqing's strategy focuses on cultivating emerging industries, particularly in smart medical equipment and instrumentation, to promote large-scale development of strategic emerging industry clusters [5]