Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's tariff policy has led to significant business crises for American companies, prompting various stakeholders to challenge the legality of these tariffs through lawsuits and lobbying efforts [1][3]. Group 1: Legal Challenges - At least seven lawsuits have been filed across the U.S. challenging Trump's tariff measures under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), aiming to overturn the tariffs [1][3]. - California was the first state to file a lawsuit against the tariffs, claiming they severely harm the state's economy, followed by a coalition of 12 states alleging that the tariffs disrupt constitutional order and create economic chaos [3][4]. - Various businesses, including a Florida paper company and a Native American tribe, have also filed lawsuits, citing increased costs and violations of treaty rights due to the tariffs [3][4]. Group 2: Business Reactions - Executives from major companies, including Home Depot and German automakers, have engaged directly with the Trump administration to seek tariff exemptions, highlighting the tariffs' potential to disrupt supply chains and inflate prices [5][7]. - Influential business figures, such as Harold Hamm, have leveraged their connections to persuade Trump to reconsider certain tariffs, particularly those affecting energy imports from Canada [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Experts argue that the tariffs are unlikely to achieve their intended goal of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., as established global supply chains cannot be easily reestablished domestically [10][11]. - The tariffs are expected to increase production costs in the U.S., potentially harming the international competitiveness of American manufacturing [10][11]. - Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating that the tariffs may lead to a slowdown in consumer demand and economic growth [1][11].

如果与美国谈判失败，空客支持欧洲对波音征收关税 金十数据5月6日讯，空中客车公司首席执行官纪尧姆·傅里表示，如果谈判未能取消最近损害航空航天 业的美国关税，欧洲应该对波音公司采取对等措施。他在巴黎的一次活动上对记者说："欧洲正在进行 谈判，如果这些谈判没有产生积极的结果，我想——这也是我们所希望的——将对飞机征收对等关税， 以迫使他们进行更高水平的谈判，回到1979年的协议。""这对美国和欧洲的工业都有好处。"傅里指的 是世贸组织的民用飞机条约。 ...

Manufacturing Sector Insights - In April 2025, the Manufacturing PMI index dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[2] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index significantly declined by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level since January 2023[2][6] - The production index decreased to 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points, and the purchasing index fell to 46.3%, a drop of 5.5 percentage points, marking the lowest level since January 2023[2][7] Price and Demand Trends - The manufacturing price index continued to decline, with major raw material purchase prices and factory prices dropping by 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively[3][10] - The decline in factory prices was more pronounced than that of raw material purchase prices, suggesting a stronger impact of demand on manufacturing market prices[3][10] - In specific sectors, the export orders index for electrical machinery, general equipment, and specialized equipment saw declines exceeding 10%[3][10] Economic Policy and Future Outlook - The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized increasing investment to stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on major strategic projects expected to receive enhanced funding support[4][11] - The real estate investment sector is anticipated to stabilize gradually, supported by increased supply of high-quality housing[4][11] - The non-manufacturing PMI index fell to 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but remained in the expansion zone, with new orders index at 44.9%, down 1.7 percentage points[5][13]

（文/陈济深 编辑/张广凯） 台湾蓝绿双方也就汇率问题展开了唇枪舌剑，台湾地区领导人赖清德5日称，美台贸易谈判没有提及汇 率，并"甩锅"表示汇率波动是部分政治人物误导市场和操弄心理预期。 对此国民党主席朱立伦则反驳称，赖清德对美国未战先降，是"跪族冠军"，抨击赖清德对美妥协的政策 将使台湾电子业陷入全行业亏损的境地。朱立伦表示，新台币升值10%，台积电的利润就要下滑4%， 代工厂则下降7%，统统都不要赚钱了。 而台湾的金融业也存在大量的海外资产。据统计，台湾保险公司有约7000亿境外美元资产，至少2000亿 美元资产没有做任何汇率对冲，而新台币兑美元一旦持续升值，台湾保险公司持有的美债等资产将面临 大量亏损的境地。 受美国关税政策影响，新台币汇率近日突发暴涨。 5月2日，新台币对美元单日升值4.37%，报收31.064创15个月新高；5月5日，新台币对美元继续大涨升 值4.92%，最高升至29.59。两个交易日对美元升值超过10%，创下台湾外汇交易历史第三大交易量。 尽管市场对于新台币暴涨原因众说纷纭，但特朗普和他的关税政策普遍被认为是这轮风暴的导火索。 在特朗普对等关税政策中，中国台湾地区被征收了32%的对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2021, the bond market yield has entered a downward cycle, influenced by the shift of monetary credit from supply - constraint to demand - constraint, the change of economic endogenous momentum, and insufficient effective demand [4][134][137] - The U.S. may shift from "loose fiscal + tight monetary" to "tight fiscal + tight monetary" during the debt - reduction process, and the Fed's rate - cut may require a significant weakening of the labor market [2][97] - China's current economic situation shows weak domestic demand and declining external demand. Policy elasticity may lie in the consumption sector, and monetary policy will gradually ease to cooperate with fiscal policy [3][131] - In Q2 2025, "macro - prudential" supervision may give way to loose trading, and the bond market curve may change from flat to bull - steep [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 1月至今债市走势分析及其宏观逻辑 - **Monthly Trends** - In January 2025, to stabilize the exchange rate and the central bank suspended buying treasury bonds, resulting in tight funds, short - term bond corrections, and long - term bond fluctuations [1][51] - In February, tight funds spread to banks, weakening easing expectations, and both short - and long - term bonds accelerated their corrections [2][51] - In March, the funds returned to equilibrium. In the first half of the month, the bond market self - adjusted due to the revision of easing expectations, and in the second half, long - term bonds gradually recovered [51] - In April, due to increased external uncertainties, long - term bonds fell to a low level and then fluctuated narrowly [2] - **Interest Rate Curve** - From January to April 2025, the interest rate curve changed from "bear - flat" to "bear - steep" and then to "bull - flat." The flat curve reflected pessimistic expectations of liquidity and fundamentals, which cannot coexist for a long time [22] - **Credit Spreads** - In 2025, the credit spread of medium - term notes showed an obvious compression trend, while that of commercial bank secondary capital bonds fluctuated [27] - **Duration Strategy** - In February - March 2025, the duration strategy underperformed, but in April, the long - duration strategy became dominant again [31] - **Market Logic** - Fundamentally, the economy was booming in Q1 2025, but external changes disturbed expectations. In terms of funds, from January to February, tight funds led to bond market corrections; from March to April, the central bank's attitude became more favorable, and the bond market strengthened. Institutionally, in January - February, institutions reduced duration and leverage; in March - April, the long - duration strategy was preferred, and institutions bet on long - term bond capital gains [51] 3.2 "对等关税"背后的"特里芬难题"与潜在冲击 - **Triffin Dilemma** - The Triffin Dilemma refers to the coexistence of the global credit of the US dollar and long - term trade deficits. The long - term trade deficit may lead to the hollowing - out of the manufacturing industry and debt inflation in the US [54][56] - **First Impact of the Triffin Dilemma** - The Bretton Woods system basically collapsed in the 1970s due to the continuous expansion of US demand and the rapid shrinkage of US gold reserves [61] - **Consequences of the Triffin Dilemma** - The global credit of the US dollar may lead to a high - valued dollar, which is negative for US manufacturing exports. The critical point of the Triffin Dilemma is the continuous expansion of the deficit, which may trigger credit risks for reserve assets [65][70] - **"海湖庄园协议"** - The core of the "Mar - a - Lago Agreement" is to reduce debt and revitalize the industrial system through measures such as replacing foreign - held US bonds with ultra - long - term zero - coupon bonds and asking countries to cooperate in depressing the dollar exchange rate [71][75] - **US Fiscal - Monetary Policy Shift** - The US may shift from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" to break the negative feedback loop of "fiscal expansion - increased interest payments - passive fiscal expansion" [79][84] - **US Economic Situation** - Currently, a US recession is not the baseline scenario. The US economy has not significantly slowed down, and the employment market remains resilient. However, if labor - market "hard data" weakens significantly, recession trading may resume [90][93] - **Potential Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs"** - "Reciprocal tariffs" may lead to a decline in global trade volume and a decrease in the potential economic growth rate [94][96] 3.3 Policy Hedging and Domestic Demand Stimulation: Focus on One's Own Affairs - **Political Bureau Meeting** - The April 2025 Political Bureau Meeting mainly implemented established policies, with highlights possibly in structural monetary policy tools [100] - **Three - Horse Carriage** - **Investment**: Weak investment is due to the downward real - estate cycle, limited infrastructure investment space under local debt regulations, and insufficient effective demand restricting manufacturing expansion [3][110] - **Export**: The export structure is being improved. Non - US economies contribute significantly to export growth but with high volatility, and high - tech products are not the main support for exports [3][116] - **Consumption**: Constrained by weak income expectations and falling housing prices, consumption has room for improvement compared to developed economies, and top - level meetings have increased their emphasis on it [3][119][121] - **Monetary Policy** - With the issuance of special treasury bonds, monetary policy is gradually easing to cooperate with fiscal policy. In May, as a credit - off month, weak credit demand may lead to spontaneous easing [122][130] 3.4 Nested in the Macro - Prudential Interest Rate Downward Cycle - **Macro - background of the Interest Rate Downward Cycle** - Since 2021, the bond market yield has been in a downward cycle, driven by the shift of monetary credit from supply - constraint to demand - constraint, the change of economic endogenous momentum, and insufficient effective demand [4][134][137] - **Macro - Prudential Assessment** - The bond market is expanding, mainly driven by interest - rate bonds, and investors face more interest - rate risks. Current regulatory assessments focus more on credit expansion, lacking constraints on interest - rate and duration risks. Asset management product scale is increasing, and fixed - income asset allocation is strong. Banks and insurance institutions face the pressure of inverted liability costs and asset returns. Monetary easing is necessary but needs to balance internal and external factors and risks [4][142][155] - **Q2 Market Outlook** - In Q2, "macro - prudential" supervision may give way to loose trading. Monetary - fiscal cooperation may be prioritized to boost domestic demand and hedge external risks. The liquidity in Q2 is expected to be loose, and the bond - curve shape may change from flat to bull - steep [4]

| 品种名称 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 784.36 | 799.56 | 783.50 | 元/克 | | 沪银主力 | 8156.00 | 8280.00 | 8155.00 | 元/千克 | | COMEX黄金 | 3345.70 | 3395.00 | 3332.10 | 美元/盎司 | | COMEX白银 | 32.70 | 33.37 | 32.63 | 美元/盎司 | 【消息面】 摘要5月6日，国内贵金属期货涨跌不一，截止目前，沪金主力报价为794.80元/克，涨幅1.39%，沪银主 力报价为8235.00元/千克，跌幅0.04%；国际贵金属期货则全线上涨，COMEX黄金报价3376.30美元/盎 司，涨幅0.98%，COMEX白银报价33.29美元/盎司，涨幅1.88%。 5月6日，国内贵金属期货涨跌不一，截止目前，沪金主力报价为794.80元/克，涨幅1.39%，沪银主力报 价为8235.00元/千克，跌幅0.04%；国际贵金属期货则全线上涨，COMEX黄金报价3376.30美元/盎司， ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula's strong support for China's response to "reciprocal tariffs" reflects a growing backlash against unilateral trade policies from the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Brazil-China Relations - Lula emphasized that friendly relations with China are a correct choice for Brazil, highlighting the strategic importance of their partnership [1] - Lula's public endorsement of China's firm stance against U.S. tariffs resonates with many developing countries that oppose U.S. trade practices [3][4] Group 2: U.S. Trade Policies - The U.S. has announced tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese products, prompting a decisive response from China, which views this as a matter of fairness and justice [3] - The U.S. is experiencing internal pressure due to rising dissatisfaction with high tariffs, as evidenced by a 0.3% decline in GDP and significant price increases in e-commerce [6][8] Group 3: Global South Perspective - China's response is seen as a fight for the voice of the "Global South," challenging the dominance of Western economic rules [4] - The sentiment among BRICS nations, including Brazil, is shifting towards advocating for diplomacy and cooperation rather than unilateralism [8] Group 4: Future Cooperation - Lula expressed a desire to work with China to enhance the BRICS mechanism, indicating a strategic alignment in the face of global governance changes [6] - The collaboration between China and Brazil is viewed as a critical support for the reconstruction of a new international order amidst increasing multipolarity [8]

此外，本周美联储将公布利率决议。据每日经济新闻，当地时间5月7日（北京时间5月8日凌晨2： 00），美联储将公布最新利率决议，投资者希望美联储能够尽快降息。不过，目前市场普遍预计美联储 将在此次会议上维持利率不变，降息或出现在6月。 5月6日，国际金价持续走高，COMEX黄金涨逾2%至3390美元/盎司，现货黄金升至3380美元/盎司上 方。 受此拉动，黄金相关ETF纷纷走高，截至10:16，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨2.32%；黄金股ETF （159562）涨4.01%，其持仓股四川黄金、华钰矿业、晓程科技、周大福等股纷纷走强。 消息面上，据新华社，美国商务部4月30日公布数据显示，2025年第一季度，美国国内生产总值 （GDP）环比按年率计算萎缩0.3%。这是2022年以来美国经济的最差季度表现。 华福证券表示，短期而言，美"对等关税"的潜在风险及不确定性引发市场避险情绪支撑金价，整体呈现 易涨难跌格局；中长期而言，全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交 易的核心，长期配置价值不改。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 ...

大家好，今晚关注一下关税的新消息，以及美股的表现。 关税最新消息 5月5日晚间，印度和美国，以及日本和美国之间的关税谈判，传来新消息。 知情人士称，印度在与美国的贸易谈判中提议，对钢铁、汽车零部件和医药产品实施"互惠基础上的零关税"，但仅限于一定进口数量范围 内。超过该数量后，进口的工业产品将恢复征收正常关税。他们表示，这一提议是印度贸易官员于上月底访问华盛顿时提出的，旨在加快推 进一项预计将在今年秋季达成的双边贸易协议。 消息人士称，上述两国正优先处理部分领域，希望在特朗普"对等关税"措施的90天暂停期结束前，达成初步贸易协议。 在美国经济收缩背景下，特朗普上周日表示，一些贸易协议最快可能本周内敲定，这为那些希望避免更高美方进口关税的贸易伙伴带来一线 希望。包括韩国、日本和印度在内的亚洲经济体，正积极与美国政府争取临时协议。 而据日本媒体报道，知情人士周一透露，美国在最近的谈判中拒绝了日本提出的关于完全豁免10%的"互惠"关税以及一项针对日本的特定国 家关税的请求。 消息人士称，包括美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在内的美方官员，在上周于华盛顿与日本首席谈判代表赤泽亮正会面时表示，特朗普政府只 打算将目前暂停至7 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The U.S. has refused to grant Japan a full exemption from "reciprocal tariffs" during recent trade negotiations, with only a consideration to lower specific tariffs by 14% [1][3] - India has proposed zero tariffs on certain quantities of steel, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals in trade talks with the U.S., aiming to expedite a bilateral trade agreement expected to be reached by fall [1][3] Group 2: Economic Data - The ISM reported that the U.S. services PMI for April was 51.6, indicating a return to expansion and significantly above the expected 50.2, following a previous value of 50.8 [5][6] - In April, 11 industries reported growth, with hospitality, wholesale trade, mining, and real estate performing the best, while 6 industries contracted [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the positive services data, U.S. stock indices narrowed their losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.14% and the Nasdaq's decline reducing to 0.45% [8][9] - U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising close to 4.35% and the 2-year yield reaching a daily high of 3.8467% [9][10] Group 4: Inflation and Employment Indicators - The services employment index for April was recorded at 49, indicating a slowdown in employment but an improvement from the previous value of 46.2 [7] - The services price index reached 65.1, significantly above the expected 61.4, indicating rising inflationary pressures due to tariffs [6][7]