日本20年期国债收益率下跌10个基点至2.405%。 ...

20年期日本国债收益率持续下跌，现跌10个基点至2.405%。 ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 头图 | AI生图 关税政策落地后，美债收益率一路走高，30年期美国国债收益率一度突破5%，而10年期收益率也触及 4.50%。近期，美债收益率再次飙升，30年期美债收益率突破5%，最高至5.096%；10年期美债收益率突 破4.5%，最高至4.604%。 这一变化的背后，正是因为国际三大信用评级机构之一的穆迪（Moody's）于5月15日宣布，将美国主权 信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，主要是担忧美国政府的债务和利息支付比例一路攀升。 除此之外，高盛最新研报揭示，日本长期国债收益率的"崩盘式"上涨，也是导致美债收益率大涨的幕后 推手。 5月19日，日本首相石破茂公开表示，日本财政状况"比希腊还糟糕"。数据显示，日本债务/GDP比率已 超250%，远高于希腊债务危机时的180%。 外围进一步催化了市场情绪——市场担忧在这场关税谈判中日元可能面临被动升值，也就是日元有可能 会继续加息。 显然，日债危机是在最近一周"表面爆发"的，但其风险积累早在2024年就已逐步显现。 自2024年8月以来，作为日债最大买家（日本央行目前持有日本国债市场52%的份额，是日本国债最大 的买家）的 ...

Group 1 - Japan's Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu approved a reserve fund of 300 billion yen to support the economy, with 288 billion yen allocated for gas and electricity subsidies [1] - The Minister did not comment on the trend of Japanese government bond yields, stating that yields are determined by multiple factors and that rising yields will not undermine the stability of bond auctions [1] - The focus will be on market trends, including ultra-long-term government bond yields [1]

30年期日本国债收益率下跌9个基点，至2.945%。40年期日本国债收益率下跌10个基点，至3.435%。10 年期日本国债收益率下降2个基点，至1.485%。 ...

Group 1 - The S&P/TSX Composite Index in Canada rose by 0.75%, closing at 26,073.13 points, surpassing the previous all-time closing high set on May 20 [1] - The small-cap index increased by 1.21%, reaching 857.88 points, breaking the historical closing high of 850.25 points established on April 13, 2022 [1] - Canadian 10-year benchmark government bond yields fell by 2.5 basis points, while 2-year yields decreased by 0.50 basis points and 5-year yields dropped by 2.3 basis points [1]

Group 1 - Japan's 20-year government bond auction on May 20 had a subscription rate of only 2.5 times, the lowest since August 2012, indicating a lack of investor interest [1] - The tail difference in the auction reached 1.14 yen, the highest level since 1987, reflecting poor bidding conditions [1] - The rising yields on Japanese government bonds are linked to increasing yields on U.S. government bonds, influenced by international trends such as the U.S. government's "equivalent tariffs" [1][2] Group 2 - Domestic long-term bond investors in Japan are primarily banks, life insurance companies, pension funds, and foreign investors, with life insurance companies and pension funds being the main long-term holders [2] - Life insurance companies are not increasing their purchases of long-term bonds due to regulatory requirements to strengthen capital by 2025, while banks have been selling long-term bonds to avoid paper losses [2] - Foreign investors have become the main buyers of Japan's long-term bonds, with a net inflow of 2.3 trillion yen in April, marking a historical high for three consecutive months [4] Group 3 - The Japanese government's budget plan for fiscal year 2025 anticipated increased tax revenue and reduced spending, but uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies have clouded economic forecasts [3] - Political pressures from upcoming elections may lead to proposals for tax cuts without adequate revenue guarantees, risking fiscal instability similar to the "Truss shock" in the UK [3] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has indicated that the rise in long-term bond yields is not abnormal and has not taken measures to counteract it, which may further undermine confidence in long-term bonds [4][5] Group 4 - The BOJ's plan to reduce long-term bond purchases and the expectation of interest rate hikes contribute to domestic financial institutions' reluctance to invest in long-term bonds [4][5] - Despite the challenges, foreign investors view the depreciation of the yen and rising bond yields as an attractive investment opportunity [4] - The sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation is at risk due to the lack of domestic investors, making it difficult for the government to issue bonds [5] Group 5 - To address the investor shortage, the BOJ may need to signal a pause in interest rate hikes, which could depend on the yen's appreciation or significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6] - The Japanese government should focus on ensuring fiscal revenue and developing sound fiscal policies to reduce reliance on bond issuance, aiming to bring bond yields back to rational levels [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in German bond yields following President Trump's announcement to suspend EU tariffs until July, indicating a lack of reliability and stability in this approach [1] - The 10-year German bond yield decreased by 0.7 basis points to 2.560%, while the U.S. bond yield initially rose to 2.609% before experiencing a downward trend [1] - The 2-year German bond yield increased by 1.8 basis points to 1.782%, maintaining an upward trajectory throughout the day [1] Group 2 - The 30-year German bond yield fell by 2.3 basis points to 3.065%, reflecting a broader trend in the bond market [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds decreased by 2.419 basis points, now at +77.622 basis points [1] - The UK bond market was closed during this period, indicating a potential impact on overall market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - European bond yields experienced a decline on May 26, with notable decreases in France, Italy, Spain, and Greece, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] Group 1: France - The yield on French 10-year government bonds fell by 2.2 basis points to 3.240%, with a trading range of 3.296% to 3.235% during the day [1] Group 2: Italy - Italian 10-year government bond yields decreased by 2.9 basis points to 3.556%, with a trading range of 3.624% to 3.551% [1] Group 3: Spain - Spanish 10-year government bond yields dropped by 1.4 basis points to 3.179% [1] Group 4: Greece - Greek 10-year government bond yields fell by 2.2 basis points to 3.298% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions will be a critical variable for market dynamics, as strong demand could lower yields and support the dollar, while weak demand may raise concerns about U.S. debt and weaken the dollar [1] Auction Details - The U.S. is scheduled to auction $69 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday, and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday [1] - Strong demand in these auctions could alleviate market anxiety, potentially leading to a decline in Treasury yields and an increase in the dollar's value [1] Market Implications - If demand is weak, particularly from foreign institutions, it could reignite concerns regarding U.S. debt issues, resulting in rising yields and a weakening dollar [1]