智通财经4月9日电，澳大利亚3年期国债收益率跌幅扩大至11个基点。 ...

澳大利亚3年期国债收益率跌幅扩大至11个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds increased by 1.8 basis points, reaching 2.631%, with a trading range of 2.575%-2.681% during the day [1] - The yield on 2-year German bonds rose by 5.7 basis points to 1.835%, trading between 1.785%-1.880% throughout the day, indicating a consistent upward trend [1] - The yield on 30-year German bonds increased by 0.5 basis points, reaching 3.022% [1] Group 2 - The 2/10 year German bond yield spread decreased by 3.896 basis points, now at +79.187 basis points [1]

美国国债收益率持续攀升，5年期收益率当日上升10个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The OECD report indicates that US tariff policies are slowing down both US and global economic growth, with forecasts for US economic growth dropping significantly to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026 [1] - The report predicts that inflation in the US will rebound in 2025, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [1] - Trump's tariffs have adversely affected major US industries, particularly agriculture and energy, as China has retaliated with tariffs on US imports, including natural gas and crude oil [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with Chairman Powell acknowledging that a significant portion of inflation is attributable to tariffs [5] - Global investors are increasingly selling off Indian stocks at record rates, with nearly $29 billion withdrawn since last October, while turning their attention to Chinese stocks due to economic stimulus measures [5][7] - The Indian stock market has seen a decline of 13% since its peak in September 2022, leading to a market capitalization loss of $1 trillion, raising concerns about overvaluation and potential risks [5][7] Group 3 - High long-term borrowing rates in the US are creating a competitive advantage for government bonds, making corporate debt issuance costly and uncertain [7] - The US stock market is facing valuation adjustments, with increased risks of IPO failures and uncontrollable costs in equity financing [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between nominal interest rates, inflation, and government bond prices, emphasizing that nominal interest rates serve as a proxy for risk-free rates and are influenced by economic growth and inflation expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Inflation and Interest Rates - CPI is a crucial indicator of inflation; an increase in CPI from 2 to 5 leads to higher nominal return expectations, resulting in rising risk-free rates and falling government bond prices [2]. - Actual interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) are positively correlated with economic growth, while nominal rates are positively correlated with both economic growth and inflation [2]. Group 2: Mechanism of Bond Price Changes - When nominal interest rates decrease, government bond prices increase as investors seek higher yields from fixed-income products [3]. - Conversely, when nominal interest rates rise, government bond prices decline due to new bonds offering higher yields [4]. Group 3: Key Factors Influencing 30-Year Bonds - The two main factors affecting 30-year government bonds are actual interest rates and CPI growth rates; both factors inversely affect bond prices [5][6]. - A simultaneous decrease in actual interest rates and CPI growth rates leads to a significant increase in bond prices, while simultaneous increases lead to a substantial decrease [7]. Group 4: Determinants of Actual Interest Rates - Economic conditions significantly influence actual interest rates, reflecting borrowing costs and market supply-demand dynamics [8]. - Central bank policies, including adjustments to open market operations and reserve requirements, play a critical role in shaping actual interest rates [9]. Group 5: Factors Affecting 30-Year Bond ETF - Changes in interest rates directly impact ETF net values; rising yields lead to declining net values, while falling yields boost net values [10]. - The shape of the yield curve affects the attractiveness of 30-year bonds; a steepening curve may reduce demand for long-term bonds, while a flattening or inverted curve enhances their appeal [11][12]. - Inflation expectations can suppress ETF prices, while recession expectations can lower rates and benefit ETF prices [13][14]. Group 6: Conclusion and Investment Strategy - The 30-year government bond ETF acts as a "barometer" for interest rate markets, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and investor behavior [15]. - Investors should focus on interest rate path expectations, ETF premium/discount risks, and inflation expectations when making investment decisions [16][17][18]. - In a rate-cutting environment, it is generally advisable to take long positions in government bonds, although inappropriate rate cuts could lead to rising CPI and hinder market rate declines [19][20].

看ip，刚到家，第一件事就是先想着上钟来了。 北京到临海有直达车，车程将近8小时，屁股都坐硬了，中间停靠的站点太多，乘坐体验很不好，但每天也就这么一班车没得选，每次到家都差不多晚上9 点半。 周末的新闻我倒是在车上大致看了一遍，就说几件最重要的事。 影响最大的是周五美国公布的非农就业数据很好，大超市场预期，严重削弱了美元在2025年的降息预期。我截一张国外下注网站的走势图给你们看看。 蓝线代表全年降息一次（0.25%），在周五经济数据公布后已经攀升至概率第一，有29%。红线代表全年降息两次（0.5%），之前一直概率领先，但周五 被蓝线反超，目前概率是21%。 央行这边也有一些应对，暂停买入国债操作，这让债券利率略有反弹，算是对冲了美元的强势冲击。 如果上面的内容你看着有点绕，我可以给一个简单粗暴的结论，这事偏利空，对全球资本市场，对港股都不是好消息，a股有外汇防火墙，影响会小一 点，但问题是a股现在自己正在闹腹泻，所以对周一不友好。 …… 周末重要的事就这一件，另外还有一些鸡零狗碎的，过一遍你有个印象就行。 1、财政部10日开了个国信办发布会，会上说了2025年赤字规模将有较大幅度增加，但是记者问具体数字的时 ...

今晚写夜报前看major决赛的直播，这是cs全年最重要的比赛，冠军奖金50万美元。我从2000年就开始玩这游戏，24年了，一直到现在都经常和哥们组 排，但水平已经不行了，就纯娱乐。 决赛是俄罗斯的spirit对阵欧洲的faze，前面两张图打成1:1，最后决胜图是全世界玩家最熟悉的dust2。spirt依靠队内天才步枪手的发挥一度握有7个赛点， 顽强的faze硬生生从5:12追到了11:12，但最终还是输掉了最后一局。 真的刺激，我已经很久没看过这么让人窒息的决赛了，电子竞技的观赏性绝对超过了绝大多数的体育项目。 这次比赛最闪耀的mvp是一个17岁的俄罗斯少年donk，今年是他征战职业赛场的第一年，但就打出了全球top1的水平，赛场表现炸裂，他的六边形数据全 部"爆表"。 来，把周末值得说的事情捋一捋。 1、10年期国债活跃券收益率跌破1.8%关口，报1.78%，继续创历史新低。30年国债的收益率也随后跌破2%关口，报1.9999%。已经有几家券商研报判断 明年的逆回购利率会下跌40-50bp，至于房贷的利率降幅则要比这个更大。做出这些判断是有前提的，即中国经济确实需要进一步的宽松刺激，以及房价 依然还没有达到 ...

我今天生病了，人有点难受，其实昨天就生病了，但昨天上钟的时候没感觉出来，等下了钟想去玩会游戏，发现脑袋昏沉沉的，耳温枪一测38.8度，惊到 了，马上关掉电脑，喝了一杯美林睡觉。半夜睡的浑身是汗，早上起来退烧了，但是吃完晚饭温度又起来了，这会坐电脑前有点集中不了精神。 本来说像我这种不上班不出门的人不太容易得病，但最近几次都是儿子们上学的时候被病毒感染，然后回家传染一圈，我肯定也无法幸免。现在分不清是 不是新冠变种，"阳"这个词也已经是历史的过去式了。 还有就是昨晚有读者问我盈富基金的情况，这是一个跟踪恒生指数的基金，每年管理费大概0.08%，很便宜，一年分两次红利，5月和11月各一次，历年 股息率大概在3-4%的水平，今年是3.77%。另外我确认了一下，它目前已经是港股通标的，开通权限的话用a股账户就能买。 至于读者问的它的持仓信息，这个要去香港的网站上去看，我帮你们跑腿了，前十持仓股如下： 今天行情正经还行，成交量复苏到1.8万亿，中位数上涨1.7%，风格上依然是小盘股领涨，微盘股今天涨完已经创了本轮新高，中证2000指数离突破前高 也只差临门一脚。 | 筛选 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅％ | 现价 | ...

昨天央行的MLF虽然没降息，但是资本市场今天用自己的方式在推动降息，今天30年国债期货主力合约继续上涨至108.52，创历史新高。 这意味着什么呢？意味着30年期国债的收益率跌破了2.5%这个重要支撑，随着国债期货的进一步上涨，收益率会越来越低。 可能有的读者看不懂一个涨一个跌的关系，我举个通俗点的例子，就好比房价越涨，租售比就越低，这两年房价大跌，租售比反而变高了。债券价格和债 券到期收益率也是反比的关系。 2.5%是国债收益率的一个重要关口，之前几次上攻都被打了回去，但随着经济数据和房价数据的进一步披露，市场开始达成共识，2.5%应该进一步下 降。 话说这几年在中国的金融产品里，投资结果最好的就是买债券。公募基金里那些做股票的经理一个个苦大仇深，都被基民骂成狗了，而做债券的经理一个 个昂首挺胸，神清气爽，他们既能给公司创收，还能给基民赚钱，职业荣誉感max。 港股这半年来的情况有所改善，主要是一进一出两方面的原因。进是上市公司掀起了大面积的回购，截止到目前已经接近1000亿港币；出是香港现 在ipo融资困难，估值低不说，硬着头皮上也没有韭菜接盘，毕马威刚刚下调了全年ipo融资预期，只有不到600亿港币。 ...