市场主流观点汇总 2025/6/24 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/6/20 | | 2025/6/16 | 至 2025/6/20 | | | | 原油 | 566.60 | 原油 | | | 8.82% | | | 甲醇 | 2529.00 | 甲醇 | | 5.86% | | | | 棕榈油 | 8536.00 | 棕榈油 | | 4.86% | | | | PTA | 4978.00 | PTA | | ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The conflict between Iran and the U.S. reached a ceasefire after 12 days, with Iran's retaliatory attacks on U.S. bases not disrupting energy transport, leading to a market reaction where gold and oil prices reversed their gains [1] - Gold prices closed at $3368.98 per ounce, while U.S. crude oil prices shifted from a 5% increase to a 9% decline [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman Bowman unexpectedly hinted at a possible rate cut in July, causing U.S. Treasury yields to drop and the dollar index to retreat, but this did not support gold prices [1] - The U.S. economy faces inflation and growth slowdown pressures, with potential for oil prices to surge if Middle Eastern tensions escalate, increasing stagflation risks [1] - Short-term ceasefire and Fed divergence are suppressing gold prices, while geopolitical risks and rate cut expectations may support gold in the medium to long term [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index experienced a high of 99.399 and a low of 98.32, closing at 98.361, indicating a volatile trading session [2] - The weekly analysis shows resistance around the 100 level, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] - Key support for the dollar index is at 98.60, with the price closing below this level, indicating potential for further declines [2] Gold Market - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with a high of $3396.68 and a low of $3346.92, closing at $3368.94 [4] - The market is currently in a phase of oscillating declines, with significant support at the $3280 level [5] - The price must break above $3405 to shift the current bearish sentiment, with immediate focus on the $3360 and $3365 resistance levels [7] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed an upward trend, with a low of 1.1452 and a high of 1.1581, closing at 1.1573 [7] - The market is supported at the 1.1300 level, indicating a long-term bullish outlook, while the 1.1500 level is critical for short-term movements [7] - Caution is advised until the recent high of 1.16305 is breached, as the market may remain in a consolidation phase [9]

交易看起来确实简单，表面上，它不需要你风吹雨淋、低三下四的应酬，不用溜须拍马，不用拼酒伤 胃，不用忍气吞声，只需要在键盘上，敲动几个按钮"买"、"卖"，一笔生意马上就达成，钱迅速到账， 还不欠账，利润到手，多轻松。可是，等到交易做了一段时间，渐渐发现：市场老跟自己过不去，买了 就跌，卖了就涨，自己成了反向指标，怎么做都亏，怎么努力，怎么拼搏，尝试了各种方法，仍然无法 摆脱亏损的泥潭，发现交易如此之艰难。而这时候，你可能只是缺少一位负责任的老师、一个专业分析 团队为你的投资之路保驾护航，指明方向！下面请看作者金晟富【文末+本人，每日实时分享现价单及 操作策略】为各位投资朋友带来的今日财富机会！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二(6月24日)亚市早盘，现货黄金加速下滑，伊朗官员刚刚证实，伊朗已接受美国总统特朗普提出的 与以色列停火方案。美国彭博社称，黄金因避险需求减弱而回落。现货黄金价格目前跌至3333美元/盎 司附近，日内暴跌逾35美元。国际油价更是延续周一跌势，一度大跌6%至64.38美元/桶附近，为近两 周新低。除了地缘政治因素，美联储的货币政策动向对黄金价格同样至关重要。6 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that the stock market is at a technical support level, but volatility has reached a new low since 2024, indicating that a trend change may be imminent [5][21]. - The A-share market's trading volume reached 1.12 trillion, an increase of 54.9 billion compared to the previous trading day, with market focus on stablecoins, port shipping, and solid-state batteries [21]. - The report suggests that the probability of an upward trend in the index is low, and managing positions is the best strategy [21]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital, as the overall market remains volatile with a lack of positive news [18][8]. - The report notes that the bond market may regain upward momentum due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [8]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1876, an increase of 91 basis points from the previous close, indicating a potential strengthening of the RMB [33]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for the USD remains bearish [33]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.13%, with strong performance in the energy sector but poor performance in agricultural and chemical products [38]. - The report advises caution for investors who have not participated at lower levels, suggesting a wait-and-see approach due to high volatility in oil and related products [38].

在美国对伊朗进行军事打击后，受益于传统的避险地位，美元在周一早盘交易中飙升，但分析师们警告 称，这种涨势可能只是昙花一现。 丹斯克银行固定收益与外汇研究部的Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen表示："在美国上周末袭击伊朗后，中东危 机的升级预计将导致市场出现一些传统的避险效应，例如油价上涨、股价下跌和美元走强。" 尽管出现了初步反弹，但华尔街中日益形成的共识表明，美元的强势可能只是暂时的。 一些分析师表示，中东冲突只是掩盖了对美国财政政策、贸易战以及国际对美国资产需求减弱的担忧， 一旦由危机驱动的即时需求消退，这些问题可能会重新成为焦点。反映长期担忧的是，美元指数今年已 下跌超过8%。 他在周一早间的报告中说，"这是一个大胆的判断，但我怀疑霍尔木兹海峡会被封锁，不过我们将能避 免卖方吹捧的每桶100-130美元的油价，美国也可能已将能源基础设施作为其支持以色列的红线。" 然而，一个关键的避险需求指标——美国国债市场似乎通过其异常平淡的反应，讲述了一个完全不同的 故事。 美元的短期强势与市场对伊朗可能如何报复的恐惧有关，其中对重要石油运输通道霍尔木兹海峡被关闭 的担忧首当其冲。 然而，加拿大皇家银行资 ...

Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have become a focal point for the market, despite the expectation that geopolitical risks would increase demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The market remains cautious, partly due to the hawkish stance maintained by Federal Reserve officials [1] - If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could exceed $100, leading to heightened fear and panic among investors [1] Currency Volatility - The volatility of the USD/JPY pair is the highest across all time frames, particularly with a one-month volatility rate of -0.028 [2] - The USD/JPY pair rose to 147.39 yen following the U.S. attack on Iran, with traders holding $12.5 billion in yen long positions [2] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 2.4% against the dollar since the Israeli missile strikes on Iranian targets began [2] Impact on Japan's Economy - Japan's heavy reliance on imported oil makes it vulnerable to rising oil prices, which threaten its trade balance and weaken the yen's attractiveness [3] - The spike in oil prices has worsened Japan's trade conditions, further diminishing its economic competitiveness [3] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's natural gas prices are highly correlated with the euro exchange rate, with rising gas prices likely to weaken the euro and reduce the current account surplus [5] - Natural gas prices have surged from approximately $2.8 to over $4 since late April, indicating a potential further shrinkage of the Eurozone's surplus [6] - The Eurozone's economic growth exceeded expectations at the beginning of the year, but lost momentum in April due to U.S. tariff policies [6] Swiss Franc and Safe-Haven Demand - The Swiss franc is supported by safe-haven demand and signals from the Swiss National Bank indicating no inclination to lower interest rates further [7] - The current USD/CHF pair is trading within a range established over the past week, with market participants remaining cautious about directional choices [7] UK Economic Activity - The UK's PMI data exceeded expectations, yet the GBP/USD exchange rate fell by 0.1% to $1.3430, indicating a muted market reaction [8] - Manufacturing activity in the UK has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, although the contraction rate is the smallest since January [8] - The June services PMI rose from 50.9 to 51.3, while the manufacturing PMI improved from 46.4 to 47.7, suggesting a slight recovery despite ongoing challenges [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is driven by factors such as the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and the uncertainty of monetary policy, but the intraday risk - aversion sentiment has declined [3]. - Copper prices are likely to oscillate around 78,000 yuan per ton in the short - term, with greater upward pressure and relatively weaker downward support due to the possible weakening of demand [14]. - Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, and it may maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - Zinc's supply is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. Demand remains stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment [59]. - For nickel, potential audits in Indonesia may affect production. Nickel ore is expected to stabilize, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak in the off - season, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the next week, with support from low inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weakening downstream demand [89]. - Lithium carbonate's mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state recently [104]. - The silicon industry chain has a relatively loose supply and slightly improved demand. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and monetary policy uncertainty drive funds into the gold market [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, and their relationships with factors like the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9] Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term oscillation around 78,000 yuan per ton, with upward pressure and weak downward support [14]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [15]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper spot in different regions, as well as import profit and loss and other data are given [19][23] - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of SHFE and LME copper, and their changes are presented [27][28] Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is gradually weakening, low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short - term, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's Axis mine may have short - term production suspension, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation and price oscillation [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost is strongly supported, supply is excessive, demand growth may slow down, and it may oscillate strongly in the short - term with a BACK structure [32]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures and spot are provided [34][52] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually loosening, but the transmission to the ingot end is not complete. Demand is stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and inventory [59]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of zinc futures and spot are provided [60][68] Nickel - **Industry Impact**: Indonesian audits may affect nickel intermediate products and stainless - steel production. Nickel ore is stable, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related raw materials are provided [73][79] Tin - **Price Outlook**: Prices are expected to remain stable, with support from inventory and mine supply, and pressure from weakening demand [89]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of tin futures and spot are provided [90][98] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating recently [104]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided [105][111] Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, and demand is slightly improved. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. - **Price and Production Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon spot and futures, and production - related data such as output and capacity utilization rate are provided [117][138]

过去七天，中东局势持续恶化却出现反常现象：在以色列与伊朗冲突不断升级的背景下，国际金价不升反降1.5%，这种与避险 逻辑相悖的走势令市场参与者倍感困惑。转折发生在北京时间6月22日凌晨，美国对伊朗三大核设施（纳坦兹、福尔多、阿拉 克）实施军事打击，标志着冲突进入全新阶段。 直接影响：2019年短暂封锁导致油价单周飙升12% 间接传导：能源通胀将强化黄金的抗通胀属性 伊朗方面反应迅速且强硬：在完成关键设施人员撤离后，其国家安全委员会立即通过决议，将美国在中东的军事存在列为"合法 打击目标"。这种直接对抗彻底粉碎了市场对局势可控的预期，黄金作为终极避险资产的定价逻辑正在被重新校准。 【三大核心风险推升避险需求】 1.冲突扩散风险 伊朗革命卫队已向波斯湾部署新型反舰导弹 地区代理人势力集体表态：胡塞武装中止停火、黎巴嫩真主党发动袭击、伊拉克民兵组织围攻美使馆 历史参照：2020年苏莱曼尼事件引发金价48小时暴涨3.2% 2.能源通道危机 霍尔木兹海峡承担全球20%石油运输，其封锁风险具有双重冲击： 多家机构分析，下周金价有望告别低迷，重返3400美元/盎司之上，甚至向3500美元发起攻势。对普通投资者来说，若中东局 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures declined due to a strengthening dollar, despite geopolitical tensions not driving the expected safe-haven demand for gold [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, the market's reaction was muted, indicating a wait-and-see approach regarding Iran's next steps [1] - Analysts suggest that potential Iranian responses could include closing the Strait of Hormuz, increasing attacks on Israel, or retaliating against U.S. targets [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Current market sentiment remains cautious, with investors not fully distancing themselves from risk despite the geopolitical tensions [1] - The appreciation of the dollar has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][72]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical issues abroad are escalating, and gold is expected to maintain a strong trend. As of June 20, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 1.98% to $3,384.4 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.0% to 950.2 tons. The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, aligning with market expectations. Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated due to U.S. policies, trade negotiations, and geopolitical uncertainties, but the demand for safe-haven assets will continue to support gold prices. In the medium to long term, macroeconomic uncertainties abroad will amplify gold's safe-haven attributes, and the weakening of the dollar's credibility is becoming increasingly evident, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the long term [3][6]. - Industrial Metals: Both copper and aluminum inventories are at low levels, and price centers are expected to rise. As of June 20, the LME copper futures contract rose by 0.1% to $9,660.5 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 145,900 tons as of June 19, with a slight increase of 100 tons. LME copper inventory stood at 99,200 tons, nearing historical lows. Despite being in the traditional off-season for downstream demand, the accumulation of inventory has been slow since June. Global visible inventory has further decreased since May, and the available days of global electrolytic copper continue to decline. Supply tightness is expected to become more pronounced, and the macroeconomic environment suggests that copper prices may gradually rise [4][5]. - Aluminum: As of June 20, the LME aluminum futures contract increased by 2.3% to $2,561.5 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 449,000 tons as of June 19, with a decrease of 11,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory continued to decline, and global electrolytic aluminum inventory levels are decreasing. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, with no immediate expectations for new projects. The rising aluminum water ratio may significantly impact the electrolytic aluminum spot market, leading to a downward trend in aluminum ingot inventory. In the medium term, the supply-demand gap is expected to widen, supporting a positive outlook for aluminum prices [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of June 20, 2025, the nonferrous metal index closed at 5,262.3 points, down 3.0% from the previous period. The precious metal index closed at 18,255.64 points, down 5.3%, while the industrial metal index closed at 1,925.73 points, down 3.2%. The energy metal index closed at 1,521.54 points, down 2.9%. During the same period, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.45% [9]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to maintain a strong trend due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors [3][6]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum inventories are low, with expectations for price increases due to supply-demand dynamics [4][5][6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Zijin Mining. For aluminum, the recommendation is to consider Tianshan Aluminum [6][70].