1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows an external - stable and internal - weak pattern, with large deflationary pressure and no urgent need for a new round of comprehensive growth - stabilizing measures. The new policy - based financial instruments are expected to boost the economy in Q4 [4]. - Sino - US trade tensions show signs of easing, and the upcoming consultations and summit are expected to reach agreements on relaxing export controls, commodity purchases, and extending the suspension of high - tariffs [15]. - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee sets the goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, aiming to promote high - quality development and modernization [17]. - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in H2 2025, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be oscillatingly strong with pressure [19][21]. - The upward trend of precious metals since late August may continue until 2026, but investors need to control positions due to short - term adjustment risks [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - **GDP**: In Q3 2025, China's real GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from Q2. The nominal GDP grew 3.73% year - on - year, a 0.21 - percentage - point decline from the previous quarter. The GDP deflator shrank 1.02% year - on - year, with deflationary pressure remaining high [4]. - **Investment**: From January to September 2025, cumulative fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, turning from a 0.5% increase in January - August. Real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4%, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% [6]. - **Consumption**: In September 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from August [6]. - **Output**: In September 2025, industrial output increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase from August [7]. - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, new - home sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and new - home sales volume decreased by 7.9% year - on - year. Housing prices continued to decline, and inventory pressure increased [8][10]. 3.1.2 Focus - Sino - US trade tensions have shown signs of easing. After multiple rounds of tariff hikes and counter - measures, the two sides will hold the fifth - round economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27, and the leaders will meet on October 30 in South Korea [11][15]. 3.1.3 Policy - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee was held from October 20 - 23, 2025. It put forward the main goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, including high - quality development, technological self - reliance, and social progress [16][17]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range of 95 - 102 in H2 2025. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be oscillatingly strong with pressure, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield will fluctuate between 3.8% - 4.5% [19][21][23]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of October 23, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1052.4 tons, 22.8% higher than the low point in May 2024, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15469 tons, 16% higher than the low point in May 2024 [24][25]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and currency system support the upward trend of gold prices. In the medium - term, economic recession risks and liquidity premium expectations make gold prices stronger. In the short - term, gold prices have entered a new upward trend since late August. The short - term adjustment risks exist, but the upward trend may continue until 2026 [28][29][32]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - silver ratio has rebounded slightly in the second half of October. The correlation between gold and the US dollar index has changed from negative to positive, and the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has increased [33][34].

作者丨周潇枭 编辑丨陈洁 党的二十大确定到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化，"十五五"时期是夯实基础、全面发力的关 键时期。 10月20日至23日，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议在北京召开，全会审议通过 了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下文简称《建 议》），明确了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的指导方针和主要目标，擘画了未来五年发展的宏 伟蓝图，为深入推进中国式现代化指明了前进方向。 10月24日，中共中央举行新闻发布会，介绍和解读党的二十届四中全会精神。发布会邀请了中 央政策研究室主任江金权，中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀，国家发展 改革委党组书记、主任郑栅洁，科技部党组书记、部长阴和俊，商务部党组书记、部长王文 涛，以及国家卫生健康委党组书记、主任雷海潮出席，介绍相关情况并答记者问。 21世纪经济报道记者从这场事关"十五五"规划的发布会上，梳理出八大重要的政策信号。 （发布会现场图 21世纪经济报道记者现场拍摄） 中央财经领导小组办公室原副主任杨伟民表示，"十五五"时期，要推动经济实现质的有效提 升，就是经济增长要带来结构优化、技术进步、效率提高、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" has significantly boosted the A-share market, particularly in the aerospace and defense sectors, indicating a strong government focus on technological self-reliance and modernization of the industrial system [1][3][4]. Market Performance - A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.71% to 3950 points, marking a 10-year high, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices increased by 2.02% and 3.57%, respectively [1]. - The aerospace and defense sectors, alongside AI and semiconductor industries, saw substantial gains, with the Aerospace ETF (159227) rising by 2.59% and experiencing a twofold increase in trading volume [1][3]. Sector Highlights - The defense and aerospace sectors emerged as key hotspots, with significant net inflows exceeding 4 billion yuan, particularly in the Aerospace ETF, which has seen a 183.45% increase in shares this year [3][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the goal of becoming a "strong aerospace nation," which is expected to drive substantial growth in the aerospace industry, with an anticipated annual growth rate exceeding 20% during this period [4][10]. Commercial Aerospace Growth - China's commercial aerospace market is projected to reach 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 2.5-2.8 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 20% [12]. - The country has initiated multiple large-scale satellite constellation projects, with plans for over 60,000 satellites, indicating a robust demand for rocket launches and commercial aerospace activities [10][11]. Investment Opportunities - The Aerospace ETF (159227) is highlighted as a stable investment strategy, tracking the National Aerospace Index, which has a high concentration in defense and aerospace sectors [15]. - The ETF includes major companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and Aero Engine Corporation of China, which are pivotal in military and commercial aviation [15].

向新而行，以质致远，"十五五"的发展前景光明、未来可期！ 党的二十届四中全会强调，"十五五"时期经济社会发展，必须以推动高质量发展为主题，坚定不移推动 高质量发展。这为我们推动经济持续健康发展和社会全面进步、扎实推进中国式现代化指明了努力方向 和实践路径。 高质量发展是中国式现代化的必然要求，关系我国社会主义现代化建设全局。壹引其纲，万目皆张。高 质量发展是对经济社会发展方方面面的总要求，是所有地区发展都必须贯彻的要求，是必须长期坚持的 要求。"十五五"时期，必须坚持高质量发展不动摇，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格 局，加快高水平科技自立自强，引领发展新质生产力，建设现代化产业体系，让新动能更加澎湃、新优 势更加彰显，牢牢把握发展主动权。 ...

Core Insights - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a press conference on October 24 to interpret the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, which took place from October 20 to 23, focusing on the strategic tasks for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan [1] Economic and Industrial Development - The "Suggestions" emphasize building a modern industrial system and strengthening the foundation of the real economy as the top strategic task, with four key areas of focus: solidifying the foundation, fostering innovation, expanding capacity, and enhancing efficiency [1] - The plan anticipates an additional market space of approximately 10 trillion yuan over the next five years, driven by the enhancement of key industries such as chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding [1] - The development of emerging pillar industries, including new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, is expected to create several trillion-yuan markets [2] - The "Suggestions" also highlight the importance of integrating modern service industries with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture [2] Infrastructure and Investment - The plan calls for a coordinated approach to infrastructure planning, with an emphasis on new infrastructure and a modern comprehensive transportation system [2] - It stresses the need to expand domestic demand, focusing on three key aspects: expanding increment, improving efficiency, and ensuring smooth circulation [2] - The government aims to optimize investment structures, increasing the proportion of investments in public welfare and enhancing the overall effectiveness of government investments [3] Regional Development - The "Suggestions" outline five key tasks for regional development, focusing on optimizing layouts, promoting new urbanization, and coordinating land and sea development [3] Healthcare Initiatives - The health sector aims to increase the average life expectancy of Chinese residents to around 80 years over the next five years, with a focus on preventive care and health education [4] - The healthcare service model will emphasize a comprehensive approach to managing chronic diseases and improving early diagnosis and treatment [5] - Efforts will be made to enhance the functionality and cooperation among various levels of medical institutions, promoting accessible and efficient healthcare services [6]

Key Points - The core achievement of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is the approval of the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" [1] - The "15th Five-Year" period is identified as a crucial time for solidifying the foundation for socialist modernization and fully exerting efforts [1] - The current development environment is characterized by both strategic opportunities and risks, with increasing uncertainties [1] - China's economic fundamentals remain stable, with numerous advantages, strong resilience, and significant potential for long-term positive trends [1] Economic and Social Development Goals - Addressing the "three rural issues" is prioritized as a key focus for the entire party [2] - Building a modern industrial system and strengthening the foundation of the real economy is the first strategic task [2] - Promoting new economic growth points in quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G mobile communication [2] - Unifying market basic institutional rules to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [2] - Advancing a people-centered new urbanization and implementing urban renewal [2] - Focusing on national strategic needs and implementing major national scientific tasks [2] - Fully implementing the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative to empower various industries [2] - Enhancing the "Invest in China" brand to attract foreign investment and create a transparent, stable, and predictable institutional environment [2] - Improving the evaluation mechanism for officials and ensuring accountability [2] - Continuing to implement the central eight regulations and promoting long-term effectiveness in work style construction [2] - Achieving significant results in high-quality development and enhancing self-reliance in technology [2] - Making new breakthroughs in comprehensive deepening of reforms and improving social civilization [2] - Enhancing the quality of life for the people and making significant progress in building a beautiful China [2] - Strengthening national security [2] Public Health and Social Policies - Aiming to increase the average life expectancy of the population from 79 to around 80 years over the next five years [5] - Strengthening public health capabilities and preventing major infectious diseases [5] - Advocating for positive marriage and childbirth views and optimizing supportive policies [5] - Developing inclusive childcare services and integrating childcare and education [5] - Gradually implementing a delayed retirement age policy [5] - Optimizing age restrictions in employment and social security [5] - Actively developing elderly human resources and promoting the silver economy [5] - Modernizing agriculture and rural areas as a priority for China's modernization [5] - Despite rising unilateralism and protectionism, economic globalization remains a historical trend [5] - China continues to be a major source of global economic growth and an important engine [5] - China is recognized as one of the countries with the lowest crime rates and highest sense of security [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic initiatives outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of fostering new industries and enhancing the existing industrial framework to drive economic growth in China [1][3][4]. Industry Summary - The focus is on building a modern industrial system, with a strong emphasis on solidifying and expanding the foundation of the real economy. The four key tasks identified are: optimizing traditional industries, nurturing new and future industries, enhancing service sector quality, and constructing a modern infrastructure system [3][4][5]. - The "Three New" economy's contribution to GDP is projected to exceed 18% by 2024, highlighting the growth potential of emerging industries such as renewable energy, new materials, and aerospace [4]. - The plan aims to create several trillion-yuan markets through the development of strategic emerging industry clusters, which will significantly contribute to high-quality economic growth over the next decade [4]. Market Summary - The strategy emphasizes the importance of a robust domestic market as a cornerstone of China's modernization. Key tasks include expanding domestic demand, improving investment efficiency, and ensuring smooth market circulation [5][6]. - The government aims to enhance consumer spending and investment in both goods and services, with a focus on significant infrastructure projects and improving the investment structure to better serve public needs [6]. - Efforts to streamline market access and eliminate barriers to competition are also highlighted, with a reduction in market entry restrictions from 328 to 106 items [6]. Regional Development Summary - The plan outlines initiatives for promoting coordinated regional development, focusing on optimizing regional layouts and enhancing urbanization efforts [7][8]. - Emphasis is placed on the development of the marine economy, with a target to exceed 10 trillion yuan, alongside measures to protect marine environments and resources [8]. - The government will work on drafting a high-quality planning outline that aligns with the strategic goals set forth in the 14th Five-Year Plan [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, prioritizing the strengthening of the real economy and advanced manufacturing as the backbone of this system [1][4]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The session highlights the importance of building a modern industrial system that focuses on the real economy, with an emphasis on intelligent, green, and integrated development [1][3]. - The strategy includes optimizing traditional industries while fostering emerging and future industries, aiming for a collaborative upgrade of the three industrial sectors [2][8]. - The estimated market space to be generated in the next five years is around 10 trillion yuan, driven by the quality enhancement of key industries such as chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding [2][6]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - Advanced manufacturing is recognized as crucial for a country's position in the global industrial and value chains, with a focus on vertical leaps in the industrial chain through technological penetration [2][5]. - The session aims to transition China from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing stronghold, enhancing the quality and competitiveness of its manufacturing sector [5][6]. - The development of advanced manufacturing clusters is expected to create significant scale effects and competitive advantages, promoting innovation and efficiency [5][6]. Group 3: Emerging and Future Industries - The session outlines plans to cultivate new pillar industries and strategically position future industries, including quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and hydrogen energy, which could generate a market scale equivalent to recreating China's high-tech industry over the next decade [6][7]. - The focus on new industries is expected to inject continuous new momentum into China's economic growth and high-quality development [6][7]. Group 4: Service Industry and Infrastructure - The service industry is identified as having substantial potential for expansion and quality improvement, with initiatives aimed at enhancing its integration with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture [7][8]. - A modern infrastructure system is to be constructed, leveraging China's existing extensive infrastructure network to support efficient industrial operations and ensure high-quality development across various sectors [7][8].

Policy Focus - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development across multiple dimensions, including industry, technology, and security, with a focus on building a modern industrial system[2] - The average annual growth rate required to meet the 2035 goals is estimated to be around 4.5% to 5%[8] Investment Efficiency - The meeting highlights the importance of investment efficiency over scale, shifting the macro policy focus from "total expansion" to "structural optimization"[3] - Future investments will align with industrial upgrades and human capital accumulation to enhance overall productivity and economic growth quality[11] Foreign Trade Stability - The emphasis on "opening up" has been elevated from ninth to fifth place, reflecting a shift in policy focus towards enhancing foreign trade resilience amid global uncertainties[3] - The goal is to strengthen multilateral cooperation and regional connections to mitigate external shocks, such as U.S. tariffs[11] Marine Development and Protection - The meeting introduces a focus on "marine development and protection," indicating a transition from resource exploitation to comprehensive governance of marine economies[4] - This shift aims to promote marine renewable energy and ecological protection, which are crucial for national security and economic growth[12] Importance of Livelihood - The meeting prioritizes improving people's livelihoods and emphasizes the goal of common prosperity, indicating potential reforms in fiscal and social security systems[4] - Policies will increasingly focus on childcare, healthcare, education, and housing stability to alleviate pressures from demographic changes and economic fluctuations[13]

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone, aiming to strengthen the foundation of the real economy [1][4]. Group 1: Strategic Focus - The session prioritizes the development of the real economy, advocating for a focus on advanced manufacturing, intelligent, green, and integrated development [3][4]. - The strategy aims to enhance traditional industries while fostering emerging and future industries, promoting high-quality development in the service sector, and establishing a modern infrastructure system [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The manufacturing value added in China is projected to grow from 26.6 trillion yuan to 33.6 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2024, contributing over 30% to global manufacturing growth [3]. - An estimated market space of around 10 trillion yuan is expected to be added in the next five years through the quality upgrade of key industries such as chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding [2][6]. Group 3: Industry Development - The focus on advanced manufacturing is seen as crucial for enhancing China's position in the global industrial and value chains, transitioning from "Made in China" to "Intelligent Manufacturing in China" [5]. - The development of advanced manufacturing clusters is expected to create significant economies of scale and competitive advantages, facilitating collaborative innovation and resource efficiency [5][6]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Services - The session highlights the need for optimizing traditional industries and expanding the service sector, which has substantial room for growth and quality improvement [7][8]. - A modern infrastructure system is essential for supporting the efficient operation of various industries, ensuring a robust environment for high-quality development [7][8].