Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that while many investors aim to make money through fund investments, the reality is that consistently predicting fund price movements is challenging and often leads to failure [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Investors often think they can buy low and sell high to make profits, but this approach is not reliable [2][3]. - A more viable strategy is to focus on long-term capital appreciation through active management funds, which requires careful evaluation of fund managers and their performance [4][6]. - The article suggests that even successful funds like Berkshire Hathaway may underperform indices over certain periods, leading to difficult decisions for investors [5][6]. Group 2: Index Funds and Asset Allocation - Investing in index funds is recommended as a simpler alternative, although it may not guarantee profits either [6][8]. - A diversified approach involving multiple market indices (e.g., A-shares, Hong Kong, US markets) can mitigate risks and enhance returns [9][10]. - The concept of asset allocation is highlighted as a way to balance investments across various asset classes, reducing volatility and providing more stable returns [10][12]. Group 3: Investment Practices - Regular contributions through dollar-cost averaging (DCA) can help investors build wealth over time, acting as a form of forced savings [10][12]. - Rebalancing the investment portfolio periodically is essential to maintain the desired asset allocation and capitalize on market fluctuations [11][12]. - The article concludes by introducing a tool for asset allocation, promoting a structured approach to investment management [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of Hong Kong stocks, particularly the technology sector and the low-volatility dividend ETFs, highlighting investment strategies and valuation metrics like the "Market Earnings Ratio" [2][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong technology sector has seen significant gains, with the Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF rising over 50% since mid-January [2]. - The low-volatility dividend ETF (520550) has also started to experience a rebound, indicating a broader bull market in Hong Kong stocks [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of selling as prices rise and to maintain cash positions for potential reinvestment in low-volatility dividend ETFs [2][8]. - The concept of "ten-year dollar-cost averaging" is emphasized, suggesting that investors should remain disciplined and not become emotionally attached to stocks [9]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The author introduces a self-invented valuation metric called "Market Earnings Ratio" (PR), calculated as PE/ROE/100, where a PR of 1 indicates fair valuation [3]. - For the low-volatility dividend ETF (520550), the current Market Earnings Ratio is approximately 0.725, suggesting it is undervalued at around 70% of its fair value [5][10]. Group 4: Dividend Yield and Economic Context - As of January 2025, the dividend yield for the low-volatility dividend ETF (520550) is 7.96%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.62%, making it an attractive investment during a rate-cutting cycle [10]. - The article argues against the misconception that dividend yields must reach risk-free rates to be considered overvalued, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a focus on valuation metrics [10].

畅销书《行稳致远，价值投资的底层逻辑》作者，雪球网2024年十大影响力用户，聊聊投资和人生，适 度分散 长期持有 选优秀的企业 做时间的朋友 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 终身黑白 来源：雪球 对于投资这件事 ， 要明白一个道理 ， 既然想按计划执行 ， 就很难获得理论上最好的结果 。 你有选股标准 ， 就意味着你会错过很多标准外的机会 。 当你选择了逐步卖出的体系 ， 就意味着你绝大部分卖出计划都不可能卖到高点附近 。 以下文章来源于终身黑白 ，作者终身黑白投资感悟 终身黑白 . 1 两个执念带来的焦虑 北京时间2月22日9点 ， 伯克希尔哈撒韦官网公布了2024年年度报告 ， 以及一份沃伦 · 巴菲特每 年亲自撰写的致股东信 。 今年的股东信仍然比较精简 ， 除了业绩表格外只有15页内容 。 主要有几点 1 、 伯克希尔2024财年的归母净利达到889.95亿美元 ， 较上年同期有所下降 ， 但2024年全年营 业利润增长27% ， 达到474.37亿美元 ， 189家运营企业中有53%出现了收益下降 2 、 谈到日本的投资时 ， 巴菲特透露 ...