Core Points - The US dollar has fallen to a three-year low due to trade uncertainties and disappointing inflation data [1] - The euro has risen to a three-and-a-half-year high against the dollar as a result of the dollar's decline [1] - European Central Bank Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that the monetary policy easing cycle is "coming to an end" as inflation stabilizes near the ECB's target [1]

Group 1 - President Trump expressed a strong stance on monetary policy, advocating for a 1% interest rate cut to reduce government debt interest payments, highlighting the importance of the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [1][3] - The latest inflation data showed a lower-than-expected month-on-month increase, with the core CPI rising only 0.1% from April and maintaining a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, the slowest since spring 2021 [3] - Treasury Secretary Becerra attributed the slowing inflation to Trump's policies, emphasizing that the current administration's actions have significantly improved inflation rates after four years of rising prices [3] Group 2 - Speculation regarding the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair is influencing market sentiment, with Trump indicating he will soon announce a successor to Powell [4] - Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones suggested that Trump may appoint a "super dove" to lead the Federal Reserve, with Becerra being a strong candidate due to Trump's focus on economic growth and loyalty [4] - The interplay between Trump's interest rate cut advocacy, inflation data interpretation, and Federal Reserve Chair speculation reflects the complex dynamics of U.S. economic policy, which is closely monitored by investors and the public [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, both short - and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, with an intraday view of being weakly volatile. It's recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The core factors include lower - than - expected US inflation in May, rising short - term interest - rate cut expectations, and the positive outcome of China - US economic and trade consultations[1][3]. - For nickel, both short - and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile. It's also recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The key factors are the tight upstream nickel ore supply, weak downstream demand, and the price stabilizing at the 120,000 yuan level[1][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, intraday is weakly volatile[1][3]. - **Reference View**: Wait - and - see[1][3]. - **Core Logic**: US May inflation was lower than expected, leading to a decline in the US dollar and Treasury yields and an increase in gold prices. Short - term interest - rate cut expectations pushed up gold prices. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism achieved positive results. Technically, focus on the 780 - yuan level for the battle between bulls and bears[3]. Nickel - **Price Trend**: Short - term and medium - term trends are volatile, intraday is strongly volatile[1][5]. - **Reference View**: Wait - and - see[1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Nickel prices dropped to 120,000 yuan and stabilized. Short - term market risk appetite declined, and the non - ferrous metals sector generally fell while gold prices rose. Upstream ore supply was tight, downstream demand was weak, domestic nickel inventories decreased from a high level, and overseas inventories continued to rise. Technically, the price is expected to stabilize at the 120,000 - yuan level if the macro - environment doesn't turn cold continuously[5].

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% year-on-year in May, which is higher than the previous value but lower than expectations [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8% year-on-year and by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of lower-than-expected month-on-month increases [1] - Analysts suggest that the limited inflation increase in May may be attributed to businesses utilizing existing inventory, leading to relatively stable prices [1] - The impact of increased import tariffs may become more pronounced in the coming months [1] - Following the data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating a potential cut before September and a second cut by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to confirm the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance regarding monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve's Stance** - The inflation data is anticipated to reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious approach ahead of the policy decision next week [1] - The impact of increased tariffs is currently limited, which supports the Fed's position [1] - **Market Expectations** - According to LSEG data, the money market fully prices in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the upcoming meeting on June 18 [1] - There is an expectation that the probability of a rate cut in September exceeds 50% [1]

Core Insights - Barclays economists suggest that the May CPI report may show initial signs of price pressures related to tariffs [1] - The April CPI inflation rate in the U.S. decreased for three consecutive months, reaching 2.3%, moving closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] Group 1 - The April CPI data is viewed as a temporary low point, indicating potential volatility in future reports [1] - High-frequency data tracked by Barclays indicates potential price increase pressures across a wide range of core categories, including clothing, home goods, new cars, and other items [1]

[table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：当地时间6月6日，美国劳工局公布2025年5月美国非农就业数据。美国5月季调后非 农就业人口新增13.9万人，预期12.6万人，前值14.7万人。5月失业率维持在4.2%不变。 总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月08日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [就业表面虽有韧性，背后暗涌 Table_NewTitle] 不容忽视 ——海外观察：美国2025年5月非农数据 liusj@longone.com.cn ➢ 核心观点：美国5月非农新增就业数据保持温和降温的态势，虽略高于预期，但需要注意 的是 "小非农"ADP的意外回落已经降低了市场对于当月NFP的预期。分项来看，服务 行业依然是主要就业贡献部门，并且呈现边际增速上升的态势；生产部门就业市场降温明 显，或是由于零售部门持续低迷使得生产部门放缓了产出。值得注意的是，除了零售和运 输，几乎所有部门5月时薪增速均呈现出 ...

Core Insights - Gold is a global safe-haven asset, and its price fluctuations are closely related to U.S. inflation data. Understanding the linkage between inflation indicators and the gold market can help investors grasp market dynamics [1] Group 1: Key Inflation Indicators - The U.S. inflation monitoring system consists of three main indicators: 1. Consumer Price Index (CPI): Reflects changes in prices of consumer goods and services, directly impacting purchasing power. A sustained rise in CPI often indicates increased inflation pressure and heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3] 2. Producer Price Index (PPI): Monitors prices of raw materials and intermediate goods in the production sector, typically serving as a leading indicator for CPI. An increase in PPI usually gradually transmits to the consumer end, indirectly affecting gold market sentiment [3] 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE): Covers a broader range of consumer behavior data, making it an important reference for Federal Reserve policy-making due to its flexible statistical methods [3] Group 2: Inflation's Impact on Gold Prices - The influence of inflation data on the gold market operates through multiple mechanisms [5] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - During inflation data release periods, investors should pay attention to: 1. Real interest rate effect: When inflation growth exceeds nominal interest rates, real interest rates decline, reducing the cost of holding gold and supporting gold prices [7] 2. Expectation volatility effect: Market speculation prior to data release can lead to gold sell-offs if CPI exceeds expectations, while underperforming data may stimulate safe-haven buying [7] 3. Policy transmission effect: The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy based on inflation; persistent inflation may delay interest rate cuts, potentially putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but long-term stagflation risks still provide support [7] Group 4: Monitoring and Analysis - Investors should monitor the release schedule of CPI, PPI, and PCE data from the U.S. Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce [8] - Historical data analysis and market reaction patterns should be examined for regularity [10] - Establishing a two-way trading mindset can help mitigate risks from data exceeding expectations [10] - Choosing trading platforms with robust risk control mechanisms is advisable [10]

Core Viewpoint - Weak U.S. inflation data is seen as a contradictory factor in the U.S. bond market, supporting recent recovery in economic confidence while simultaneously dampening concerns over rampant inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation Data Impact - Weak inflation data signals a temporary limitation on the potential for bearish sentiment towards bonds, as it alleviates fears of rising inflation [1] - The risk of sustained inflation in the U.S. is not a primary concern for investors at this moment [1]

Group 1 - The main point of the article highlights the fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly silver and gold, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as U.S. inflation and retail sales data [2][3] - Silver futures in Shanghai reported a price of 8110 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.72%, and trading ranged from a low of 8052 yuan to a high of 8165 yuan [1] - International gold prices rose by 1.99% to 3239.66 USD per ounce, while silver increased by 1.26% to 32.616 USD per ounce, indicating a recovery after initial declines [2] Group 2 - The U.S. April PPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, below expectations, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is at 91.7%, with a small chance of a 25 basis point cut, reflecting market expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year [2] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are causing uncertainty in the market, leading to a cautious outlook on silver futures, with industrial demand being a key factor to monitor [3]