高盛分析师周四在报告中指出，尽管特朗普的新政策可能正在颠覆全球贸易秩序，但迄今尚未对经济造 成严重冲击。"几乎没有迹象表明政策不确定性正在损害经济活动，"高盛团队在报告中写道。 在高盛报告发布之际，美国6月就业数据好于预期：经济新增14.7万个岗位，失业率从4.2%降至4.1%。 投资者情绪乐观，标普500和纳斯达克指数创历史新高。 尽管分析师此前预期特朗普第二任期将拖累经济，但数据呈现出截然不同的图景：自2024年末以来，主 要发达及新兴市场的投资、工厂招聘、消费支出及整体经济活动均保持韧性。 可以肯定的是，以历史标准衡量，贸易政策的不确定性仍然很高，高盛的不确定性指数在特朗普当选后 飙升。但近几个月来，随着贸易协议谈判推进，这种不确定性有所缓解。 事实上，对全球二季度及全年经济增长的预测已从先前的悲观预期中回升。分析师指出，在多数经济体 中，贸易相关投资占GDP比重较小，因此影响"小到难以察觉"。新工厂投资虽有下滑（尤其是在新兴市 场），但这在主要经济体中仅占GDP的0.2-0.3个百分点。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 报告强调，政策不确定性通常在金融环境收紧时影响最大，但今年以来全球流动性实际 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing warning signs, with a decline in private sector employment for the first time in over two years, raising concerns about economic health and increasing bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Employment Data - In June, U.S. private sector employment fell by 33,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations of a 100,000 increase, marking the first decline since March 2023 [1] - Job losses were primarily concentrated in the services sector, with a total reduction of 66,000 jobs, including 56,000 in professional and business services and 52,000 in education and healthcare services [1][2] - The goods-producing sector added 32,000 jobs, driven mainly by manufacturing [1] Wage Growth - Despite hiring freezes, wage growth remains stable, with wages for stayers increasing by 4.4% year-over-year and those changing jobs seeing an average increase of 6.8% [2] - The ADP Chief Economist noted that layoffs are still rare, but hiring hesitance and reluctance to replace departing employees are contributing to the job reduction [2] Economic Outlook - The decline in employment numbers suggests a weak labor market, with fewer job openings compared to a year ago, making it unlikely for companies to recruit more staff before economic acceleration occurs [2][3] - The JOLTS report indicated a decrease in job openings, with May figures showing 5.503 million job openings, down by 112,000 [3] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Recent data indicates a decline in employment growth as companies navigate trade policy uncertainties, but large-scale layoffs have not yet occurred [2][3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in July increased from 20% to 25% following the ADP data release, with investors anticipating a 25 basis point cut in December [5] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, with Wall Street predicting a drop in job creation to 110,000 in June, which would be the lowest level for the year since 2010 [4][5]

Group 1: Industry Outlook - The American Chemistry Council (ACC) indicates that trade policy uncertainty and unclear end-user demand have significantly impacted the U.S. chemical industry, with a projected growth of only 0.3% in chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) for this year and a contraction of 0.2% expected by 2026 [1] - ACC forecasts a decline in consumer spending and business investment growth, with consumer spending expected to grow by 1.9% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, and business investment growth projected at 1.7%, down from 4.0% last year [2] - The overall outlook for the chemical industry has worsened due to trade policy uncertainty, which is seen as the primary factor affecting the industry's prospects for 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Performance - Despite the overall downturn, certain end markets are expected to perform relatively well, with the semiconductor industry projected to grow by 7.0% this year, driven by demand for artificial intelligence applications [3] - ACC has downgraded growth forecasts for most chemical end markets, anticipating that about half of these markets will experience a decline in sales this year [3] - U.S. chemical exports are expected to decrease by 1.9%, while imports are projected to decline by 1.0%, although the U.S. is expected to maintain a trade surplus in chemicals [3]

一、基本面 制造业低迷：6月制造业PMI显示制造业依然低迷，关税政策的不确定性导致供应链瓶颈，工厂等待原材料时间延长，企业对长期采购决策持谨慎态度。 黄金周二（7月2日）早盘开盘后就一路慢涨，欧盘延续上涨，到美盘初最高上涨至3358附近，美盘震荡下探3337/3336附近，日线收出一根阳线。 1、特朗普减税议案通过：7月1日，美国参议院通过特朗普"大而美"减税与支出议案，该议案预计将在未来十年内导致财政赤字增加3万亿美元。这会刺激通 胀压力，加重美国债务负担，而黄金作为传统避险资产，在这种情况下吸引了更多投资者关注，推动价格上涨。 2、贸易政策不确定性：美国财政部长贝森特警告称，随着7月9日贸易关税暂停期限临近，各国可能面临大幅提高的关税税率。特朗普对日本等国可能征收 更高关税的表态，加剧了市场对全球贸易环境的紧张情绪，进一步推动金价上涨。 3、美国经济数据复杂： 职位空缺增加：美国5月职位空缺意外增加37.4万个，达到776.9万个，超出市场预期。 支撑位上，关注3315-3310区域支撑，这里是5日均线和60日均线目前位置，金价转强站上均线上方，回落关注均线支撑情况。 劳动力市场动能减弱：5月裁员人数减少 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's willingness to cut interest rates is becoming increasingly clear, influenced by several key factors [1] - The Fed's policy stance is subtly shifting, with multiple officials signaling a potential rate cut, particularly in September [1] - Trade policy uncertainty has significantly decreased, with the impact of tariffs on the economy being less than previously expected, supporting inflation stability [1] - The labor market is showing signs of a comprehensive slowdown, with rising unemployment claims and a declining employment-population ratio, reinforcing expectations for a policy shift [1] - The market is beginning to price in the potential impact of leadership changes at the Fed, reflected in unusual fluctuations in long-term interest rates [1] Group 2 - Current market expectations suggest a cumulative rate cut of 63 basis points by year-end, with a total adjustment of 130 basis points for terminal rates [2] - The financial conditions index (FCI) has eased by 140 basis points since April, providing approximately 1.4 percentage points of additional support for economic growth [2] - A "loose cycle" is forming between the stock and foreign exchange markets, with significant implications for the balance of financial conditions [2] - The impact of preemptive fiscal stimulus measures is expected to last until 2026, contributing an estimated 0.9 percentage points to GDP [2] Group 3 - While short-term monetary policy may support economic growth, long-term risks of macroeconomic imbalance may increase [3] - The trading team suggests a phased strategy for investors, capitalizing on short-term opportunities while being cautious of yield rebound risks later in the year [3] - Key uncertainties include geopolitical developments in the Middle East, potential market overreactions to Fed leadership changes, and risks associated with the monetization of fiscal deficits [3]

Core Viewpoint - The White House is struggling to fulfill its promise of comprehensive global trade reform before the July 9 deadline, with expected agreements likely to be limited framework documents rather than full trade agreements [2][6]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Negotiations - The U.S. government aims to reach agreements with over ten major trading partners before the deadline, but these are expected to be limited in scope [2]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that around 20 countries not reaching agreements by the deadline could continue negotiations but would face higher tariffs [3]. - Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all countries, emphasizing unilateral control over tariff rates [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The mixed signals from the Trump administration are causing market tension, affecting global economic relations [2][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations is creating anxiety among domestic businesses, with previous tariff policies having caused market panic [7]. - A recent poll indicated that 57% of voters are dissatisfied with Trump's handling of trade policy, reflecting public sentiment against the current approach [8]. Group 3: Future Developments - The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to release industry survey results that may trigger new tariffs [8]. - Legal challenges to the legitimacy of Trump's tariff powers are ongoing, with a recent court ruling deeming most tariffs illegal [8]. - Despite the chaotic negotiation landscape, some countries are still optimistic about reaching agreements, particularly with India and the EU [7].

近期，美国经济数据发布后引起了社会的广泛关注。根据美国商务部最新出炉的报告，今年第一季度，美国经济出人意料地按年率计算萎缩了0.5%，这一 数据比先前预估的-0.2%更为糟糕，也是自2022年第一季度以来，美国经济首次经历季度性负增长。这一消息无疑加深了市场对美国经济增长动力的担忧， 同时也揭示了关税政策可能对数据产生的扭曲效应。 本次GDP终值的下调，主要原因是消费者支出与出口数据的向下调整。作为美国经济的重要引擎，第一季度个人消费支出的增速显著放缓至0.5%，远低于 去年第四季度的4%，创下了自2021年以来的最低增速。与此同时，进口激增37.9%，导致净出口对GDP的拖累高达4.7个百分点，这反映出企业为了应对未 来可能的关税上调，采取了提前囤货的策略。 尽管进口数据的调整在一定程度上缓解了消费疲软带来的负面影响，但美国经济整体仍然呈现出需求放缓的趋势。第一季度国内需求增长率从初值的3.0% 大幅下调至1.9%，而联邦支出的降幅更是达到了4.6%，这是自2022年以来的最大降幅。核心PCE物价指数终值上调至3.5%，显示出通胀压力依然巨大，进 一步加剧了市场对滞胀风险的忧虑。 美国劳动力市场的降温同样引 ...

Core Insights - The global merchandise trade barometer index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5 in June, marking the highest level since August 2021 and remaining above the baseline of 100, indicating ongoing trade growth [1] - Strong growth in global merchandise trade in the early months of the year was driven by importers' anticipatory purchasing behavior in response to expected tariff policy adjustments [1] - In contrast, the new export orders index fell to 97.9, dropping below the baseline of 100 and entering a contraction zone, suggesting a potential slowdown in global trade growth later in the year [1] Trade Dynamics - The global merchandise trade barometer serves as an early warning signal for short-term trade trends by collecting trade statistics from major economies [1] - The report highlights a stark contrast between surging import demand and weak export orders, reflecting an imbalance in the current global trade structure [1] - Export orders were the only category to show negative growth, indicating the fragility of trade growth despite strong import activity [1] Future Outlook - The World Trade Organization warns that increasing uncertainty in trade policies globally could exacerbate the risk of trade contraction [2] - Potential large-scale tariff implementations could pose significant challenges to global trade [2] - While short-term growth in global merchandise trade is observed, the medium-term outlook faces numerous challenges due to rising uncertainty factors in the global economic environment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's deliberation summary indicates that despite high uncertainty in trade policies, domestic factors such as stable wage levels and a Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly above expectations are noteworthy [1] Group 1 - A member of the Bank of Japan highlighted the high uncertainty surrounding trade policies [1] - Domestic wage levels are performing robustly, which is a positive indicator for the economy [1] - The CPI is reported to be slightly higher than expected, suggesting inflationary pressures may be present [1]

英国央行：贸易政策不确定性将持续对英国经济造成不利影响。 ...