挪威央行：自三月以来，挪威经济的发展基本符合预期。然而，贸易壁垒变得更加广泛，对未来的贸易 政策也存在不确定性。 ...

尽管特朗普在社交媒体上批评美联储"过于迟钝"，但市场分析普遍认为，美联储此次声明已释放出对滞胀风险的警惕信号。摩根士丹利财富管理首席经济策 略师Ellen Zentner指出，美联储已意识到关税政策可能拖累GDP增速至1.5%左右，同时推高通胀，这种"经济放缓+物价上升"的组合将迫使央行维持利率不 变，以避免政策冲突进一步恶化。 在经济前景不确定性加剧的背景下，美联储于5月8日宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%-4.5%不变，这一决策不仅延续了其谨慎的货币政策立场，更凸 显了当前全球经济格局中贸易政策对央行决策的深刻影响。ETO Markets分析团队指出，此次利率决议不仅是对短期经济数据的回应，更是对中期"滞胀"风 险的提前布局，而特朗普政府关税政策的不确定性，正成为这一风险的核心催化剂。 一、利率决策背后的"两难困境"：通胀与就业的平衡术 联邦基金利率作为美联储调控经济的关键工具，其维持不变的决定，直接反映了美联储在双重使命（控制通胀与促进就业）间的艰难权衡。鲍威尔在新闻发 布会上明确表示，当前经济数据尚未完全反映贸易政策的冲击，但潜在风险已显著上升——尤其是特朗普关税政策可能引发的"通胀上行+就业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, highlighting increasing risks related to rising unemployment and inflation [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC committee unanimously voted to keep the interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its balance sheet at the pace announced in the March meeting [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The committee noted that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased further [1] - Officials are monitoring the dual risks of high unemployment and high inflation, which they believe have both risen [1] Group 3: Trade Policy Impact - Trump's trade policies have introduced a wave of uncertainty across the economy [1] - Economists generally expect that comprehensive tariffs will lead to higher inflation and hinder economic growth, creating a conflict between the goals of price stability and maximum employment [1]

近期受美国关税政策的影响，越来越多的欧洲零售商和消费品牌正将重心从美国转向欧洲和其他市场，因为他们预计美国关税政策将引发价格上涨，从而压 低美国消费者的需求。美国关税政策的不确定性，也将使得他们在美国市场上的经营面临更多的压力。 总部位于德国的欧洲线上时尚产品零售商扎兰多公司6日表示，该公司目前正在大力拓展欧洲市场并且与潜在的新客户进行洽谈。 该公司首席执行官丹尼尔·格里德6日表示，该公司目前对美国消费者行为采取了相当谨慎的态度。该公司的一份报告称，公司的营收较去年同期有所下降。 △扎兰多公司联席首席执行官 大卫·施罗德 德国高端服装品牌雨果·博思目前也已将中国制造的产品转移到美国以外的其他市场，并表示由于经济不确定性加剧，第一季度美国消费者支出"明显恶 化"。 △德国雨果·博思公司 △扎兰多公司 扎兰多公司联席首席执行官大卫·施罗德当天表示，他看到该公司网站上的品牌和零售商确实更加关注欧洲市场，因为如果在美国市场拓展变得更加困难， 他们也可以通过这种方式创造额外的需求。 这一反应凸显了美国关税政策对全球消费品流通的影响，迫使企业改变长期以来形成的生产和销售模式，既增加了企业在美国市场经营的难度，也使得企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surged significantly, reaching a high of $3387.05 per ounce, driven by bearish sentiment towards the US dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][2]. Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a cumulative increase of approximately $150, indicating a robust bullish momentum after a period of consolidation [2]. - The key resistance level is identified at $3386 per ounce, which aligns with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, suggesting that this point will be crucial for future price movements [4]. - The market is advised to monitor the support level at $3350 per ounce; a breach below this could lead to further declines, while maintaining above it may allow for continued upward movement [4][5]. Technical Indicators - The current trading strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips within the $3368-$3373 range, with a stop loss set at $3362 and a target of $3390-$3400 [6]. - The short-term support levels are identified at $3370-$3364, with stronger support at $3360, while resistance levels are noted at $3386 and $3400 [5][6].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices ended a nine-day winning streak as investors reassessed former President Trump's latest tariff comments, leading to a resurgence in risk-averse sentiment with significant increases in safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Trump's proposal to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films negatively impacted market sentiment, particularly affecting entertainment stocks such as Netflix and Paramount Global, reigniting concerns over his overall trade policy stance [2] - Recent economic data showed mixed signals, with the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rising to 51.6 in April from 50.8 in March, while employment sub-indices shrank for the second consecutive month, raising doubts about the labor market fundamentals [2][4] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is surrounded by uncertainty, especially with no substantial progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite both sides expressing willingness to continue dialogue [4] - Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the May meeting, with close attention on potential rate cuts in June or July, although rising trade risks are leading to a downward adjustment in expectations for recent easing policies [4][6] - The S&P 500 index is facing key technical resistance at the 200-day moving average, which historically serves as an important market inflection point, indicating persistent bearish sentiment in the market [6]

Core Insights - The recent U.S. employment report is viewed positively, highlighting the resilience of the labor market amidst a complex economic environment [1][3] Labor Market Analysis - The employment report indicates a strong labor market characterized by resilience rather than recession, with significant non-farm job growth and a stable unemployment rate [3] - Job vacancies remain steady, and hiring has not significantly slowed despite external uncertainties, with some sectors increasing recruitment efforts [3] - The leisure and hospitality sectors continue to absorb a large workforce, supported by consumer market demand, while the tech industry is driven by innovation despite global competition [3] Economic Outlook - Despite the positive employment data, potential risks from trade policies, such as tariffs and trade negotiation uncertainties, pose challenges to the economy [4] - The manufacturing and agricultural sectors, heavily reliant on imports and exports, are particularly vulnerable to trade tensions, which could lead to profit declines and potential layoffs [4] - Overall economic indicators for early April show strong fundamentals, including stable consumer confidence and retail sales growth, but the future economic outlook remains uncertain due to global economic slowdowns and trade policy risks [4] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach until there are clear signs of labor market weakness [5] - Current strong labor market performance reduces the urgency for the Fed to implement rate cuts or other easing measures [5] - The impact of trade policies on the economy remains unclear, and premature actions by the Fed could exacerbate market uncertainties [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a consolidated revenue increase of 11% year over year, with adjusted EBITDAre rising by 15% and AFFO per fully diluted share increasing by 28% [16][17]. - Hospitality segment achieved record first quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDAre, driven by RevPAR and total RevPAR growth of 109% [18]. - ADR reached a first quarter record of $264, up nearly 6% compared to the previous year [18]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Hospitality segment's revenue and adjusted EBITDAre were significantly boosted by a strong performance in both group and transient segments, with outside room spending from group customers slightly exceeding expectations [19]. - The Entertainment segment generated a revenue growth of 34% year over year, with adjusted EBITDAre increasing by 35% [18]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross group room nights booked for future years increased by 10% year over year, particularly strong for 2026 and 2027, which saw increases of 133% and 135% respectively [22]. - The company noted a decline in consumer confidence but maintained strong performance in the hospitality segment, with leisure transient customers also showing a 3% year-over-year increase in demand and ADR [19][20]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on long-term value creation while managing short-term dynamics, emphasizing the importance of its diversified customer base to mitigate fluctuations during uncertain times [13][26]. - The company is actively managing its capital deployment program and has identified new growth projects, including a ten-year contract to manage the Ascend Amphitheater in Nashville [24][25]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the near-term outlook due to economic uncertainties, particularly related to government business, but remains optimistic about long-term growth [10][12]. - The company has slightly modified its full-year guidance for hospitality RevPAR and total RevPAR, reflecting anticipated weaker group business volumes [27][28]. Other Important Information - The company ended the first quarter with $414 million in unrestricted cash and a total available liquidity of approximately $1.2 billion [31]. - Capital expenditures expectations for 2025 have been lowered to a range of $350 million to $450 million, based on updated construction timelines [34]. Q&A Session Summary Question: How short-term is the hesitancy being seen in bookings? - Management noted that while there is uncertainty, recent lead volumes showed improvement from a 50% decline in March to only 8% in April, indicating a positive trend [36][38]. Question: What are the costs that allow the company to maintain EBITDA guidance despite lower RevPAR? - The company has implemented profit improvement plans amounting to $28 million to $30 million, which have been effective in safeguarding margins [45][46]. Question: Can you elaborate on the strategy behind the acquisition of Southern Entertainment? - The acquisition is aimed at increasing the overall opportunity for live venues and enhancing the company's presence in the country music festival space [51][54]. Question: What is the government exposure across the portfolio? - The company indicated that government business is not significant across the portfolio, and stress testing showed confidence in weathering potential cancellations [95][96]. Question: How does the company plan to handle cancellations and rebooking? - Management plans to be more aggressive in collecting cancellation fees while also working with customers to find mutually beneficial solutions [103][104].

Group 1 - President Trump calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates following a stronger-than-expected April jobs report, emphasizing that consumers have been waiting for prices to drop and asserting that there is no inflation [2][4] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, surpassing market expectations of 133,000, although it is lower than the revised figure of 185,000 for March [2][4] - Despite previous criticisms, Trump has softened his stance towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell, stating he has no intention of firing him and expressing a desire to be respectful towards the Federal Reserve [3][4] Group 2 - The April employment growth remains strong, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%, indicating that uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies have not significantly impacted hiring plans [4][5] - The report shows a broad distribution of job growth, particularly in healthcare, while the manufacturing sector experienced layoffs, marking the most significant production decline since 2020 [5] - The Federal Reserve officials are cautious about lowering interest rates until the specific impacts of the Trump administration's policies on the economy are clearer, with expectations that the Fed will maintain the benchmark interest rate in the upcoming meeting [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain its interest rate at 0.5% for the second consecutive time, citing "extremely high uncertainty" in trade policies as a significant concern for the economic and inflation outlook [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The BOJ's decision was made with a unanimous 9-0 vote, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The central bank has lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts, indicating a cautious outlook for the economy [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the impact of tariffs has made the economic and inflation outlook more challenging, with actual interest rates remaining notably low [3][10]. - The BOJ noted that while consumer spending is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, households may adopt a more defensive attitude towards spending, potentially exerting downward pressure on the economy [4]. Group 3: Trade Policy and Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is highlighted as a critical factor, with potential implications for exports and production, which may continue to show weakness [4][5]. - The BOJ expressed concerns that global logistics disruptions or supply chain restructuring could lead to increased import prices, which might suppress domestic demand [5]. Group 4: Inflation and Price Stability - The BOJ anticipates that core inflation may reach its target in the latter half of the forecast period, despite recent increases in food prices [5][10]. - The central bank is closely monitoring the effects of foreign exchange and other market fluctuations on the Japanese economy and prices [6][11]. Group 5: Future Rate Changes - The possibility of interest rate hikes within the year has shifted from "when" to "if," depending on the outcomes of ongoing tariff negotiations [7][9]. - Ueda indicated that a successful tariff agreement could serve as a significant marker for future monetary policy decisions [8].