5月铜市运行平稳，沪铜价格持续在78000元/吨附近窄幅震荡。伦铜与沪铜走势总体趋同，不过受库存下降及美元走弱 等因素提振，伦铜表现强于沪铜。 市场聚焦海外宏观数据 5月初，英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，市场对全球贸易环境改善的预期升温，美元指数随之小幅回升。5月 12 日，商务部发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，宣布中美贸易谈判达成重要共识，这一进展促使市场风险偏好显著回 升，铜价受此提振一度走强。 此外，美联储5月议息会议维持暂缓降息节奏。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，高关税可能推升通胀并加剧就业市场压力，当 前货币政策处于适度限制性区间，潜在通胀前景可控，因此维持观望是明智选择。在美联储公布最新利率决议两天 后，多位美联储官员重申控制通胀预期的重要性，认为贸易政策的不确定性可能导致利率维持高位的时间更长。 综上所述，6月铜价将继续高位震荡。（作者单位：国元期货） 截至5月30日当周，进口铜精矿加工费报-43.56美元/吨，较4月末的- 42.61美元/吨进一步走低。自今年1月24日由正转负 后，进口铜精矿加工费持续震荡下行，反映出矿石供应压力持续凸显。废铜方面，今年以来从美国进口的废铜数量持 续减少，虽对日本废 ...

据经合组织测算，今年5月中旬美国对进口商品的实际关税税率从2024年的略高于2%上调至15.4%。佩 雷拉表示，这对美国来说已达到"1938年以来最高水平，而如果以4月9日宣布的关税水平来看将是19世 纪90年代以来最高"。 新华财经巴黎6月3日电（记者李文昕）经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）3日发布经济展望报告，将 2025和2026年全球经济增速均下调至2.9%。2日，该组织首席经济学家阿尔瓦罗·桑托斯·佩雷拉在报告 发布前的媒体吹风会上向法国媒体（接受法新社采访时）表示："由于关税，我们几乎下调了全球所有 经济体的经济增长预期……贸易受到了影响，尤其是消费和投资。" 佩雷拉3日在经济展望报告发布会上表示，当前全球经济经贸政策面临重大的、前所未有的不确定性， 对各项经济指标产生了深远影响。他提到，贸易的不确定性、美国贸易政策的剧烈变化是造成包括美 国、加拿大等国经济预期下调的重要原因。 经合组织将于3日至4日在巴黎举行部长级会议，美国和欧盟谈判代表也将在此次会议期间就关税问题进 行讨论。"我们有理由担心，保护主义和与贸易政策相关的不确定性将进一步加剧。"佩雷拉3日在部长 级会议开幕式上表示。 （文章来源：新 ...

新华财经北京6月3日电 日本央行行长植田和男日内表示，企业利润处于历史高位，可作为缓冲抵御美 国关税冲击。在对经济的乐观预期之外，植田和男发表关于利率前景的鸽派言论，日元走软。 植田和男称，日本实际利率仍深陷负值区间，宽松货币政策环境将继续支撑经济。由于贸易政策的影 响，日本企业的工资和价格设定行为可能会发生显著变化。不过，日本劳动力市场保持紧张，企业整体 将维持积极的薪资设定行为。目前与美国的多项贸易谈判仍在进行中，市场不确定性依然较高，必须高 度警惕贸易政策带来的极高不确定性及其对日本经济和物价的影响。自从5月1日发布展望报告以来，日 本经济和物价走势的整体格局没有发生变化。目前无需改变对日本经济的基本看法，尽管存在一些疲软 迹象，日本经济正温和复苏。企业利润正在改善，企业信心稳固。日本的工资和物价预计将逐步上升， 能够抵御关税政策带来的下行压力。 日本央行去年结束了长达十年的大规模刺激计划，并于1月将短期利率上调至0.5%，认为日本即将持续 达成2%通胀目标。关于加息计划，植田和男指出，包括贸易政策前景在内的不确定性仍然很高，即使 关税确定下来，这种不确定性也可能继续存在。日本央行不会预先设定利率政策， ...

日本央行行长植田和男：如果贸易政策的不确定性减弱，海外经济将重新走上增长轨道，从而推动日本 经济的增长。 ...

Group 1 - The OECD has revised down its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, a decrease of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from earlier predictions made in March [1] - The report highlights that increased trade barriers and uncertainty in economic and trade policies have negatively impacted business and consumer confidence, hindering trade and investment [1][2] - The United States, Canada, and Mexico are expected to experience significant growth slowdowns, with the U.S. projected to grow at 1.6% and 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, down by 0.6 and 0.1 percentage points from previous forecasts [1] Group 2 - The OECD anticipates that the overall inflation rate for G20 countries will decrease from 6.2% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, although the U.S. is an exception with higher inflation rates projected [1] - The report emphasizes the need for countries to work together to address uncertainties, particularly by avoiding further trade fragmentation and barriers, which could help restore growth and investment [2] - The OECD's earlier mid-term economic outlook in March had projected higher growth rates of 3.1% and 3.0% for 2025 and 2026, indicating a significant downward revision in the latest report [2]

Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is experiencing a moderate recovery, with improving corporate profits and stable business confidence, but signs of weakness are emerging, and economic growth is expected to slow down [3] - High uncertainty regarding trade policies, particularly U.S. tariff measures, poses a negative impact on Japan's economy, primarily affecting export companies and potentially weakening consumer confidence [3][8] Wage and Consumption - Actual wages in Japan are currently negative, significantly impacting consumption and the economy [7] - As real wages gradually improve, consumption is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend [6] Inflation and Prices - Japan's core inflation rate is slightly below the 2% target, with the gap between basic inflation and overall inflation expected to narrow [9] - Cost-push inflation is having a significant adverse effect on households, but pressures from rising import prices are anticipated to diminish [9] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan has no preset plans for interest rate hikes and will consider raising rates only when economic and price conditions align with expectations [11] - The central bank aims to achieve a 2% inflation target and will implement monetary policy based on price and economic developments [12] Currency and Bond Market - A strong yen negatively impacts export and manufacturing profits but improves household real income; stable exchange rates are crucial for market stability [14] - Long-term bond yield fluctuations can affect short- and medium-term yields, with domestic investors being the primary buyers of long-term Japanese government bonds [14] Recent Rate Decisions - The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% in January, marking the largest increase among three hikes since March and July 2024 [16] - The central bank remains optimistic about economic and inflation conditions, with a projected CPI inflation rate of 2.4% for FY2025, up by 0.5 percentage points [16]

日本央行行长植田和男在国会表示，贸易政策的不确定性极高。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：贸易政策不确定性非常高。 ...

据环球网报道，5月12日，中美于日内瓦发表联合声明，关税争端暂时缓和。可让美国企业没想到的是，中国市场并未如 他们所想那般，重新对美国商品敞开大门。 美国民众（资料图） 此外，中国粮食和物资储备局发布新规，国有粮商优先采购南美大豆，并给予运输补贴。南美粮食运往中国，运输时间 大幅缩短，从田地到中国餐桌仅需23天，运输效率提升30%。美国农产品想要重新抢占中国市场，难度可想而知。 货物（资料图） 美国贸易政策的不确定性，是导致中国企业不愿再大量进口美国货的重要原因。特朗普上台后，多次随意调整关税政 策，一会儿加征关税，一会儿又威胁恢复关税。在2018年至2019年下半年，中美就贸易问题进行了13轮磋商，可每次磋 商刚有成果，短则数月，长则半年，美国就单方面撕毁协议，再度挥舞关税大棒。今年，特朗普上任之初，短短一周内 多次改变关税政策，对中国加征关税瞬间提高到125%。如此反复无常，让中国企业对美国政策稳定性彻底失去信心，不 敢轻易进口美国商品。 从国家战略层面来看，中国致力于降低对美国商品的依赖，以保障自身供应链安全。在能源和粮食领域，过度依赖单一 进口来源，一旦遭遇外部制裁或供应中断，将对国家经济和民生造成严 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the term "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) on President Trump's psyche and its potential to cause market volatility amid ongoing trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Since May, trade policy uncertainty has significantly decreased from its peak in early April, but has recently surged again due to renewed tariff threats [2]. - Trump threatened a 50% tariff on the EU, which he later postponed, highlighting the erratic nature of his trade policies [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The "TACO" term encapsulates Trump's pattern of making aggressive tariff threats followed by retreats under market pressure, which has become a trading strategy on Wall Street [3]. - Despite Trump's threats causing market fluctuations, the U.S. stock market achieved its best May performance since 1997, indicating that traders are looking for rebound opportunities after his threats [3]. Group 3: Trump's Response to "TACO" - Trump perceives "TACO" as a personal affront, as it challenges his self-image as a strong negotiator and trader [4]. - Following a court ruling limiting his power to impose tariffs, Trump chose to appeal rather than back down, possibly influenced by the "chicken" label [5][6]. Group 4: Potential Consequences - Trump's determination to counter the "TACO" narrative may lead him to adopt a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, potentially at the expense of economic stability [7].