Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various economic indicators and market trends during different time intervals, including price changes, industry growth, and investment-related data [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 Time Interval Analysis - **Market and Industry Indicators**: During Dec 15 - Dec 19, 2025 (also Dec 21, 2025), there were changes in multiple market and industry indicators such as shipping (BDI), inflation (CPI, PPI), and financial rates (SHIBOR, BPDR, BPGC). For example, the BDI increased by a certain percentage, and CPI and PPI had specific growth rates [1][3] - **Industry and Investment**: Different industries showed distinct trends. The shipping industry had fluctuations in freight rates; the chemical industry had changes in production and sales volumes; and the financial market had adjustments in interest rates and investment yields [1][3] Other Time Interval Analysis - **Long - Term Trends**: Analyses of long - term data from various sources (Wind) showed trends in different economic and market indicators over years, which could help in understanding the overall economic situation and making investment decisions [13][22] - **Industry - Specific Analysis**: Specific industries like shipping, chemical, and finance were analyzed in detail, including factors affecting their performance, such as supply and demand, cost changes, and policy impacts [1][3]

Group 1: CPI Insights - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year[7] - The core CPI remained high at 1.2% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month, marking the highest level since February 2024[10] - Food prices contributed positively to the CPI, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 7.2% month-on-month, while pork prices fell by 2.2%[8] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, but the year-on-year decline expanded to 2.2%[15] - Upstream prices were supported by rising global non-ferrous metal prices, while the impact of "anti-involution" policies continued to manifest in certain industries[15] - Coal mining and non-ferrous mining sectors led the PPI increase, with coal prices rising by 4.1% month-on-month[15] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and recent central economic meetings emphasized the importance of service consumption, indicating a potential shift in price recovery drivers towards service CPI in 2026[14] - The effectiveness of fiscal subsidies and anti-involution policies is expected to continue influencing market dynamics, with a focus on core service CPI recovery elasticity[14] - Risks remain regarding the uncertainty in the real estate market and the potential inadequacy of policy measures[4]

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in November continued to rise month-on-month for the second consecutive month, with the year-on-year decline stabilizing compared to the previous month, indicating a trend of narrowing year-on-year declines since August [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing PPI - Consumption upgrade is driving price increases, with notable price rises in sports and cultural goods. In November, the price of arts and crafts and ceremonial goods manufacturing rose by 20.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. The price of sports balls manufacturing increased by 4.3%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous month [1][3]. - The development of emerging industries is positive, with accelerated industrial transformation towards intelligence and sustainability. In November, the price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling increased by 7.8% year-on-year, up by 1 percentage point from the previous month. Prices for graphite and carbon products rose by 3.8%, and integrated circuit manufacturing prices increased by 1.7% [1][3]. Group 2: Market Competition and Policy Implications - The effects of regulating market competition are becoming evident, with the year-on-year price declines for photovoltaic equipment and components, lithium-ion batteries, and new energy vehicles narrowing by 2.0, 0.7, and 0.6 percentage points, respectively [2][4]. - The current PPI is still declining year-on-year, and further efforts are needed to solidify the foundation for a reasonable price recovery. Future strategies include expanding domestic demand, strengthening the domestic circulation, and improving supply-demand relationships to promote reasonable price recovery and enhance business operations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in November showed a month-on-month increase for the second consecutive month, indicating a trend of narrowing year-on-year decline since August, with positive changes observed in recent PPI data [1][2] Group 1: PPI Trends - In November, the PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, driven by seasonal demand for winter energy and heating, improved market competition, and rising international non-ferrous metal prices [1] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to a high base effect from the same period last year [1] Group 2: Factors Supporting Price Recovery - Consumer upgrades are increasingly evident, with rising demand for high-quality living leading to price increases in sectors such as sports and cultural goods. In November, the price of arts and crafts and ceremonial goods manufacturing rose by 20.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month; the price of sports balls manufacturing rose by 4.3%, up by 1 percentage point [1] - Emerging industries are experiencing positive development, with accelerated smart and green transformation leading to increased demand for raw materials and finished products. In November, prices in the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry rose by 7.8% year-on-year, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month; graphite and carbon product manufacturing prices rose by 3.8%; integrated circuit manufacturing prices rose by 1.7% [2] - The effects of regulating market competition are becoming evident, with prices in photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and new energy vehicle manufacturing showing a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Overall, the PPI has shown a month-on-month increase for two consecutive months, with positive factors supporting reasonable price recovery continuing to accumulate. However, the year-on-year PPI remains in decline, indicating that further efforts are needed to solidify the foundation for price recovery [2]

（文章来源：第一财经） 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在发布会上表示，11月份PPI环比上涨0.1%，主要是由于冬季用能、防寒 保暖等季节性需求增加，规范市场竞争秩序以及国际有色金属价格上行传导影响。从同比来看，PPI同 比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，主要是上年同期基数走高的影响。从PPI变化来看，促进价 格合理回升的积极因素仍在累积。总的来看，PPI连续2个月环比上涨，支持价格合理回升的积极因素继 续累积。当然也要看到，PPI同比还在下降，夯实价格合理回升的基础仍需加力。下阶段，要继续扩大 国内需求，做强国内大循环，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，加强重点行业产能治理，改善供求关系， 推动价格合理回升，改善企业经营。 ...

研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号：F3053225 投资咨询证号：Z0015885 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 国债期货周报：重要会议落地，盘面波动加大 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 第二部分 相关数据追踪 12 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 内容摘要 ◼【综合分析】 逻辑梳理：本周部分月度宏观数据密集公布，整体有喜有忧。其中金融数据方面，新型政策性金融工具带动企业部门融资需求上升是 最大亮点，但基数抬升等因素共同作用下，M1增速则继续放缓。相较于基本面数据而言，市场关注点更多集中在重要会议的内容上 。周四公布的中央经济工作会议通稿内容未超预期。财政政策方面，"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"的表述降低了明 年财政在"量"上大幅加码的概率。而货币政策适度宽松的基调不变，且将"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，明年政策利率调 降仍然可期。不过，周五上 ...

Economic Overview - In November, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month; month-on-month, it decreased by 0.1% [1][3] Price Changes by Category - Food, tobacco, and alcohol prices rose by 0.3% year-on-year, clothing prices increased by 1.9%, housing prices remained stable, and prices for daily necessities and services rose by 2.1%; transportation and communication prices fell by 2.3%, education, culture, and entertainment prices increased by 0.8%, healthcare prices rose by 1.6%, and prices for other goods and services surged by 14.2% [3] - Within food, tobacco, and alcohol prices, pork prices decreased by 15%, grain prices fell by 0.4%, fresh fruit prices increased by 0.7%, and fresh vegetable prices rose by 14.5%; the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 1.2% year-on-year [3] Industrial Producer Prices - In November, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%; the national industrial producer purchase price index fell by 2.5% year-on-year, also with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [3] - From January to November, the national industrial producer prices and purchase prices decreased by 2.7% and 3.1% year-on-year, respectively [3]

Industry Knowledge Platform - Crypto space is a knowledge-intensive platform requiring continuous learning and adaptation [1] - Participants need to understand macroeconomics, including interest rate decisions (Federal Reserve rate hikes/cuts), CPI, PPI, non-farm payroll, unemployment rate, USD index, and capital flows [1] - Participants need to understand on-chain data, including on-chain transactions, trading depth, and funding rates [1] Investment and Risk - Knowledge of macroeconomics and on-chain data is crucial for navigating the crypto market [1] - Understanding derivatives such as options and futures contracts is essential [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - policy in China is taking effect, and prices are showing positive changes. The upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference may have an impact. In the fundamentals, as the off - season approaches, downstream demand is weakening, and some steel mills are reducing production. The supply of five major steel products and the weekly output of rebar are decreasing. The demand for steel products is under pressure, and both building materials and plates are seeing a decline in consumption. The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing due to the rapid decline in supply. The raw material prices are under pressure due to reduced demand from steel mills, and the cost support is insufficient. The main rebar contract has shifted to the far - month contract, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term operations are recommended [62][63] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Part 1: Rebar Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating stable manufacturing production. The new order index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing improved market demand. The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating a continued decrease in raw material inventories. The employment index was 48.4%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight recovery in labor demand. The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slightly faster delivery time. CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase mainly driven by the turnaround of food prices from a decline to an increase. In November 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the purchase price index decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The month - on - month increase of both was 0.1% [11] - Policy information: In November, the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to study and formulate standards for identifying costs in disorderly price competition. The December Central Economic Work Conference is upcoming [11] 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific trend content provided Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.1 Macro - Monetary Quantity - No relevant content provided 2.2 Macro - Monetary Price - No relevant content provided 2.3 Comparison - Domestic and Foreign - No relevant content provided 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industrial Chain - The prices and price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal in Shanghai and Qingdao are presented. For example, the price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) in Shanghai is 3,270 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.91%, a monthly increase of 1.55%, and an annual decline of 5.76% [25] - The basis data of rebar from November 21 to December 11, 2025, is provided. For example, on December 11, 2025, the futures price was 3069 yuan/ton, the delivery product price was 3230 yuan/ton, and the basis was 161 yuan/ton [27] Part 3: Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No relevant content provided 3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - No relevant content provided 3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - No relevant content provided 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - No relevant content provided 3.5 Electric Furnace Profit - No relevant content provided 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - No relevant content provided 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No relevant content provided 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - No relevant content provided 3.9 Weekly Rebar Output - No relevant content provided 3.10 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products - No relevant content provided 3.11 Social Inventory of Steel Products - No relevant content provided 3.13 Social Inventory of Rebar - No relevant content provided 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - No relevant content provided Part 4: Future Outlook - The macro - economic situation shows positive price changes. The off - season is coming, with weakening demand and some steel mills reducing production. The supply of five major steel products and rebar is decreasing. The consumption of building materials and plates is declining. The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing. The raw material prices are under pressure, and the cost support is insufficient. The main rebar contract is oscillating at a low level, and short - term operations are recommended [62][63]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since February, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2] - The decline in pork prices, which fell by 2.2% month-on-month, significantly impacted the CPI, as pork prices are typically higher during this season due to increased demand [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, maintaining an upward trend for nine consecutive months, driven by rising service prices and improved industrial consumer goods prices [3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Sichuan decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, influenced by falling energy prices and weak demand [4] - Despite the overall decline in PPI, the non-ferrous metal industry showed positive performance, with prices increasing by 1.8% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year, attributed to strong demand from the new energy and electronics sectors [5] - The beverage manufacturing sector also experienced a slight increase, with prices rising by 0.1% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer support [5]