2026年1月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，2025年12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦 临近，居民消费需求增加，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%。受国际大宗商品 价格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数 （PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 其中，CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大 主要是食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。PPI环比上涨0.2%，连续3个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 整体来看，2025年全年，全国居民消费价格与上年持平。2025年全年，工业生产者出厂价格下降 2.6%。 远东资信研究院副院长张林对21世纪经济报道记者表示，2025年12月CPI同比与环比价格改善，在市场 预期范围之内，但处于市场预期的上沿。 北京大学经济学院教授苏剑对21世纪经济报道记者表示，2025年CPI与上年持平，反映出当前居民有效 消费需求相对不足，供需不匹配的问题。随着"稳增长、促消费"政策效应的逐渐释放，以及2025年明显 的低基数效应，预计2026年CP ...

记者丨冉黎黎 编辑丨包芳鸣 2026年1月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，2025年12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消 费需求增加，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%。受国际大宗商品价格传导拉动以及国内重点 行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 其中，CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格 涨幅扩大拉动。 PPI环比上涨0.2%，连续3个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 整体来看，2025年全年，全国居民消费价格与上年持平。2025年全年，工业生产者出厂价格下降2.6%。 远东资信研究院副院长张林对21世纪经济报道记者表示，1 2月CPI同比与环比价格改善，在市场预期范围之内，但处 于市场预期的上沿。对于全年数据，从历史上来看，0%的CPI和-2.6%的PPI是偏低的价格水平组合，这符合当前宏观 经济供强于需，以及居民部门仍处在去杠杆过程中的总体背景和基本面。 北京大学经济学院教授苏剑对21世纪经济报道记者表示 ...

记者丨冉黎黎 编辑丨陈洁 需要注意的是，国家统计局数据显示，2025年11月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.7%。12 月份， CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，回升至2023年3月份以来最高。 董莉娟表示，12月份， CPI同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。 食品价格上涨 1.1%，涨幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月增加约0.17个百分点。食品 中，鲜菜和鲜果价格涨幅分别扩大至18.2%和4.4%，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月合计增加约 0.16个百分点；牛肉、羊肉和水产品价格分别上涨6.9%、4.4%和1.6%，涨幅均有扩大；猪肉 价格下降14.6%，降幅略有收窄。能源价格下降3.8%，降幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点，其中汽 油价格降幅扩大至8.4%。 董莉娟表示，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以上。 服务价格上涨0.6%，影响CPI同比上涨约0.25个百分点。其中，家庭服务价格上涨1.2%；房租 价格下降0.3%。扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨2.5%，影响CPI同比上涨约0.63个百分点。其 中，金饰品价格涨幅继续 ...

Core Insights - The continuous expansion of the core CPI for six months is seen as a positive sign, but it is insufficient to determine whether a true turning point in China's economic prices has been reached, requiring further evaluation of upcoming data [1][14]. Economic Performance - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a decline in growth rate for five consecutive months [2]. - The core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year in October, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a potential turning point in price trends and a signal of recovering consumer demand [2][3]. Consumption Trends - The decline in retail sales growth is attributed to a "supply-demand imbalance," highlighting the need for enhanced consumer demand [3]. - Consumption has become the primary driver of GDP growth this year, with various policies introduced to stimulate consumption, such as "trade-in" programs [3]. Price Dynamics - The core CPI's rise is influenced by factors such as the consumption boost from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays and a surge in gold prices [7]. - Service prices have been gradually recovering since March, with notable increases in airfares and hotel accommodation prices [7]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the core CPI's growth reflects improving terminal consumer demand, it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices [14]. - The overall CPI is expected to remain low, with projections indicating that achieving a 2% or 3% year-on-year CPI growth next year will require multiple favorable factors, including a recovery in real estate prices and improvements in median income growth [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's economic growth is facing challenges, with a decline in social retail sales and an increase in core CPI, suggesting a complex economic environment [2][3][12] - In October, the social retail sales total increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline for five months, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, indicating a potential turning point in consumer demand [2][8] - Experts highlight a "supply-demand imbalance" in the economy, emphasizing the need for enhanced consumer demand to address the declining retail sales growth [2][12] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to factors such as the consumption stimulus from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, as well as rising gold prices, with service prices also showing a recovery [7][8] - The core CPI's growth reflects improvements in terminal consumer demand, but it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices, which remain low [13][14] - The overall CPI has been operating at low levels, with experts suggesting that while the core CPI's increase is a positive sign, it is not sufficient to confirm a definitive turning point in the economy [11][12]

Core Insights - In October, there was a positive change in consumer prices, with a month-on-month increase and a year-on-year shift from decline to growth [1][3]. Group 1: Month-on-Month Changes - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, driven by expanded holiday consumption and rising industrial goods prices [3]. - Holiday travel demand led to increased transportation and accommodation prices, with hotel prices rising by 8.6%, flight tickets by 4.5%, and tourism prices by 2.5% [3]. - Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with fresh vegetables, lamb, fresh fruits, shrimp, and beef seeing price increases between 0.5% and 4.3% [3]. - Industrial consumer goods prices rose by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing to the CPI increase [3]. Group 2: Year-on-Year Changes - The CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.3%, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [3][4]. - Service prices saw a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with notable rises in air ticket and hotel prices, reflecting ongoing consumer upgrades and increased demand for high-quality services [4]. - Industrial consumer goods prices rose by 2% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of growth, with household appliances and durable goods seeing price increases between 2.4% and 5% [4]. - The downward pressure from food and energy prices has lessened, with food prices down 2.9% and energy prices down 2.4% year-on-year, but the decline rates have narrowed compared to the previous month [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall market demand remains insufficient, and prices are operating at a low level despite positive changes in consumer prices [5]. - Future measures will focus on expanding domestic demand, promoting a unified national market, optimizing the competitive environment, and improving supply-demand relationships to facilitate reasonable price recovery [5].

Group 1 - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, an expansion of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, driven by holiday consumption and rising industrial product prices [1] - The increase in service prices was notable, with hotel accommodation, flight tickets, and travel prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively, influenced by strong demand during the holiday season [1] - Food prices also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with fresh vegetables, lamb, fresh fruits, shrimp and crab, and beef prices rising between 0.5% and 4.3% [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, the CPI rose by 0.2% in October, reversing a decline of 0.3% from the previous month, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 1.2%, marking a continuous six-month expansion [2] - Service prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with significant rises in flight and hotel prices, driven by increased consumer spending on travel and cultural activities during the holidays [2] - Industrial product prices showed a steady increase, with a year-on-year rise of 2% (excluding energy), supported by effective consumption-boosting measures and improved market competition [2] Group 3 - The downward pressure from food and energy prices has lessened, with food and energy prices decreasing by 2.9% and 2.4% year-on-year respectively, but the decline has narrowed compared to the previous month [3] - The overall market demand remains insufficient, leading to a low overall price level, indicating the need for continued efforts to expand domestic demand and improve supply-demand relationships [3] - Future measures will focus on promoting reasonable price recovery through the construction of a unified national market and optimizing the competitive environment [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core View of the Report - In October 2025, CPI turned positive year-on-year for the first time this year, and PPI increased 0.1% month-on-month. Core CPI continued to rise, potentially driven by the "Investing in People" policy, supported by both service and industrial consumer prices. The drag from food and energy weakened. The prices of upstream extraction and processing and key manufacturing industries for capacity management in PPI stabilized and rebounded, with marginal improvement in the supply-demand relationship. The low-price environment continued to improve, but due to the holiday demand in October, the transmission from industrial products to consumer goods needed further observation. Prices were expected to continue a mild improvement, but the bond market had already priced in price expectations to a certain extent, so the impact of prices on the bond market within the year might be limited. The yield of the active 10-year Treasury bond (tax-free) was expected to decline to 1.65%-1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond to 1.7%-1.75% [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Event Description - In October 2025, CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, higher than the consensus forecast of -0.05%. Core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for the sixth consecutive month. PPI increased 0.1% month-on-month, turning from flat in the previous month, and decreased 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, higher than the consensus forecast of -2.3% [6]. Event Review - **Core CPI Continued to Rise**: In October, core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, reaching a new high since March 2024. Service prices increased 0.8% year-on-year, with travel-related consumption strong and tourism prices rising 2.5% month-on-month above the seasonal level. Medical and household service prices rose 2.4% and 2.3% year-on-year respectively. Industrial consumer goods (excluding energy) prices continued to improve, rising 2.0% year-on-year. With the government emphasizing "Investing in People" policies, core CPI might maintain its resilience [10]. - **Food and Energy Drag Weakened, CPI Turned Positive Year-on-Year**: In October, CPI turned positive year-on-year to 0.2%, rising 0.2% month-on-month slightly above the seasonal level. Food prices decreased 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase stronger than the seasonal level. Energy prices decreased 2.4% year-on-year, and the drag on the overall CPI weakened compared to the previous month [10]. - **PPI Turned Positive Month-on-Month, Upstream and Key Manufacturing Prices Rebounded**: In October, PPI increased 0.1% month-on-month, the first positive growth this year, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1%, improving for the third consecutive month. Production material prices stabilized, with coal, non-ferrous metals and other upstream industries showing obvious price rebounds. Under the promotion of key industry capacity management, the year-on-year decline in prices of photovoltaic equipment, battery manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing narrowed [10]. - **High - end Manufacturing Showed Resilience, but Downstream Pressure Remained**: The prices of computer整机 manufacturing, lithium - ion battery manufacturing, and integrated circuit manufacturing all turned from decline to increase month-on-month. However, the prices of consumer durables and clothing remained weak, and traditional chemical and non-metallic product industries were still under pressure due to factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the adjustment of the real estate market [10]. - **Low - price Environment Improved, but Transmission Needed Observation**: The improvement in October data was partly driven by the temporary demand during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays. Prices were expected to continue a mild improvement within the year. The bond market had already priced in price expectations to a certain extent, so the impact of prices on the bond market within the year might be limited [10].

Core Insights - The overall price level in China is showing signs of recovery, indicating an improvement in terminal demand, as evidenced by the CPI turning positive and a narrowing decline in PPI [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The robust increase in service consumption prices reflects a significant recovery in the service sector, driven by short-term consumption during holidays and a long-term shift towards service-oriented consumption [1][2] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, travel-related prices surged, with hotel accommodation, flight tickets, and tourism prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively, indicating strong holiday economic growth [1] Group 2: Structural Changes in Consumption - There is a clear structural shift from physical goods consumption to service consumption, with prices for medical and domestic services showing a consistent upward trend, supported by rising income levels and favorable policies [2][3] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have effectively stimulated demand in certain industrial consumer goods, with prices for home appliances and durable goods rising between 2.4% and 5% [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing capacity management in key industries is promoting a rebalancing of market supply and demand, leading to price stabilization in sectors like coal, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium batteries [3] - The current price recovery reflects substantial improvements in domestic demand, although the recovery momentum is still accumulating and shows structural differentiation [4] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To sustain the positive trend in domestic demand, macro policies should continue to focus on optimizing consumption promotion strategies, especially during peak shopping seasons like "Double Eleven" and New Year [4] - Long-term policies should emphasize structural reforms on the supply side while closely integrating with demand recovery efforts to enhance consumer and business confidence [4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month [2][3] - Service prices rose by 0.2%, driven by increased travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with hotel accommodation, flight tickets, and tourism prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, indicating a steady recovery in domestic consumption, particularly in service consumption [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, the first rise of the year, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [4][5] - Year-on-year, PPI decreased by 2.1%, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a trend of price stabilization in key industries [5][6] - Prices in the coal mining and washing industry, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and integrated circuit manufacturing have shown upward trends, while international commodity prices have created a mixed impact on domestic prices [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the improvement in price data reflects a comprehensive enhancement in the macroeconomic environment and industry sentiment, with a balanced supply-demand relationship [6][7] - The overall price level is expected to rise moderately in the next 3 to 6 months, supported by continued macroeconomic policies and a recovery in market confidence [7] - The construction of a modern industrial system and the expansion of market demand are anticipated to drive price increases in related industries, despite ongoing pressures from the real estate market on certain commodity prices [7]