Core Insights - In July, the consumer price index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.1% [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a continuous expansion in its growth rate for three consecutive months [2][4] Consumer Price Trends - The rise in service prices was significant, driven by increased costs in transportation and travel-related services, with airfares and hotel prices rising between 4.4% and 17.9% [3][5] - Industrial consumer goods also saw a rebound, with prices for household appliances and personal care products increasing by 0.5% to 2.2% [3][4] Policy Impact - The increase in core CPI is attributed to effective implementation of consumption-boosting policies and the gradual release of consumer spending potential [4][6] - The government's initiatives, such as the "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods and regulation of low-price competition among enterprises, have contributed to price recovery [4][5] Market Dynamics - Despite the positive trends, the market remains characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to low price levels overall [6]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the "anti-involution" policy led to a narrowing of the PPI month-on-month decline to -0.2%, while the CPI for industrial consumer goods improved, contributing to a third consecutive month of core CPI year-on-year recovery. However, the impact of supply-side capacity management on prices is more moderate compared to 2016, with PPI year-on-year decline remaining at a two-year low of -3.6% and CPI year-on-year turning flat [2][19]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0% in July, primarily dragged down by food items, while core CPI rose to 0.8% [4]. - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing a marginal drag of 0.30 percentage points to the overall CPI [8]. - Seasonal supply of fresh vegetables and fruits was abundant, leading to a significant year-on-year decline in their prices, with fresh vegetables down 7.6% and fresh fruits up 2.8% [8][11]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month decline narrowed from -0.4% to -0.2% in July, but the year-on-year decline remained at -3.6%, indicating limited effectiveness of the "anti-involution" measures on price uplift [19]. - Key industries such as coal, steel, and cement have implemented capacity management measures, which have led to a reduction in the month-on-month price declines for these sectors [19]. - International factors continue to pressure export-related prices, while domestic oil and non-ferrous metal prices have seen increases due to external input factors [20]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" measures have led to a faster increase in futures prices compared to spot prices, indicating market expectations are ahead of actual supply-side adjustments [24]. - Looking ahead, the diminishing drag from tailing factors may lead to improvements in PPI year-on-year in August and CPI year-on-year in the fourth quarter, but sustained inflation recovery will require stronger policy support and a focus on expanding domestic demand [24]. - The current supply-side price uplift is more challenging and softer compared to 2016, with a broader range of industries involved, including upstream raw materials and downstream sectors [24].

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In July, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year and increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with an average decline of 0.1% from January to July compared to the previous year [1] - The decline in food prices significantly impacted the CPI, with food prices dropping by 1.6% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.29 percentage points to the CPI's year-on-year decline [5][6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in market supply and demand relationships [6][10] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing for the first time since March, while the year-on-year decline remained at 3.6% [8][9] - The PPI's year-on-year decline has ended a four-month trend of increasing declines, with some industries showing price recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships [9][12] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support a rebound in industrial product prices, particularly in August, although overall PPI month-on-month growth is anticipated to be around 0.0% [12][13] Group 3: Economic Policies and Market Trends - The ongoing effects of demand expansion policies are leading to positive changes in consumer prices, with service prices rising by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the CPI increase [6][10] - The "anti-involution" policy is projected to reshape industry supply-demand structures, particularly in overcapacity sectors, potentially leading to a more reasonable price recovery [13] - The overall economic environment remains uncertain, with external trade conditions and domestic demand pressures influencing price trends [11][12]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline in June, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [2][4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, and has expanded for three consecutive months [2][5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, but this was a narrowing of the decline for the first time since March, suggesting stabilization in some industrial sectors [6][7] Group 2 - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service prices, which rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the overall CPI increase [4][5] - Key contributors to the service price increase included airfare, tourism, hotel accommodation, and vehicle rental, which saw significant month-on-month increases of 17.9%, 9.1%, 6.9%, and 4.4% respectively [4] - Industrial consumer goods prices also showed improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, influenced by policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][6] Group 3 - The government has implemented a series of macroeconomic policies aimed at enhancing consumption capacity and optimizing the consumption environment, with 19 key measures proposed [2][3] - The ongoing efforts to build a unified national market and regulate low-price competition among enterprises are expected to further stabilize prices [3][6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline remained at -3.6%, but the stabilization indicates a potential turning point for industrial prices, aided by policy measures [6][7]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while year-on-year it remained flat [2][6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 and continuing a trend of expansion for three consecutive months [2][6] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with notable price hikes in airfares, tourism, hotel accommodations, and vehicle rentals [2][4] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, while year-on-year it fell by 3.6% [6][8] - The construction of a unified national market is improving market competition in industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium batteries, leading to positive price changes in these sectors [6][8] Group 3: Agricultural Products Price Trends - In July, the wholesale price of pork increased by 1.3% month-on-month, influenced by tight supply due to low market release from farmers, although prices later stabilized as supply improved [8][10] - The average wholesale price of pork in Beijing was reported at 18.16 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.37% but a year-on-year decrease of 20.18% [12] - The wholesale price of eggs decreased by 1.8% month-on-month and 25% year-on-year, attributed to increased supply and weak demand, although prices are expected to rise due to seasonal demand factors [15][17]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the seasonal level [3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with service prices up 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up 0.5% [3] - Seasonal factors, such as the summer travel peak, contributed to significant price increases in air tickets (17.9%), tourism (9.1%), hotel accommodation (6.9%), and vehicle rentals (4.4%) [3] Group 2: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024 [4] - Jewelry prices, particularly gold and platinum, saw substantial increases of 37.1% and 27.3% respectively, contributing approximately 0.22 percentage points to the CPI [4] - Food prices experienced a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year, which negatively impacted the overall CPI [4] Group 3: PPI Overview - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, marking the first month of narrowing decline since March [5] - Seasonal factors and uncertainties in international trade contributed to price decreases in certain industries, while domestic market competition improved, leading to reduced price declines in sectors like coal, steel, and solar energy [5][6] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with some industries experiencing price recoveries due to macroeconomic policies and demand improvements [6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% in June, primarily driven by rising service and industrial goods prices [2][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with jewelry prices significantly contributing to this rise [2][3] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year, which negatively impacted the overall CPI [3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in certain sectors [4][5] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with some industries experiencing price recovery due to improved supply-demand dynamics and ongoing industrial upgrades [5][6] - Specific sectors such as traditional industries and emerging industries showed positive price movements, with notable increases in prices for products like caustic soda and aircraft manufacturing [5][6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, with a year-on-year change remaining flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, and has expanded for three consecutive months [1][2] - Service prices contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.6%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel [2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the drop for the first time since March [1][4] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic policies and improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [1][5] - Seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties have influenced price changes in various sectors, with notable decreases in construction materials and energy-related prices [4][5]