南方财经全媒体记者 李依农 上海报道 达拉斯联储商业活动指数显著下跌 最新公布的数据显示，美国4月达拉斯联储商业活动指数大幅下滑至-35.8，创下自2020年5月新冠疫情 高峰以来的最低水平。相比市场预期的-14.1和前值-16.3，这一数字的显著恶化，意味着企业对未来经 济环境的悲观情绪正迅速升温。 美国的文化里，游说是一种合法的商业行为。但对中小企业来说，往往没有足够资源去组织一个有影响 力的游说团队，这需要很强的实力。因此我认为，这轮影响对大型财团和特大型企业来说其实不会特别 大，真正感受到压力的是中小企业，尤其是小微企业，以及最低收入的20%人群。 美国2025年GDP增速或仅为0.5% 与此同时，高盛发布的最新研报也对美国经济增长前景敲响了警钟。高盛预计，受贸易紧张局势和高关 税影响，美国2025年GDP增速可能仅为0.5%，其中关税因素单独就带来了近2个百分点的负面冲击。尽 管短期数据尚可，但真正的压力可能在5到6月开始集中释放。 如何看待美国当前的经济形势？滞后效应将会如何演变？我们来听听方德证券高级分析师廖偲琴的解 读。 在美国特朗普政府的关税措施冲击下，企业高管们用"混乱"和"疯狂"来形容当 ...

冲击波还在延续 受"对等关税"影响，目前中国对来自美国的波音飞机、航材等零部件征收的关税从原本的5%大幅提升 至近40%。国内航空公司引进波音飞机的成本瞬间大幅增长。 据新华社报道，4月29日，商务部针对波音公司飞回3架拟交付中国航空公司的飞机一事作出回应，明确 指出美方挥舞关税大棒的行为严重冲击全球产业链供应链稳定，扰乱国际航空运输市场，中国相关航空 公司以及美国波音公司均深受其害。 商务部新闻发言人表示，中方愿继续支持两国企业开展正常的商业合作，希望美方能倾听企业的呼声， 为企业正常贸易投资活动创造稳定可预期的环境。 同日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会时也再次强调，如果美方希望通过对话来解决问题的话，那 么就要停止威胁和施压，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方开展对话。 美国发起的这场关税战，也对中国航空行业产生了深远影响。 21世纪经济报道查询三大航2024年财报发现，仅三大航未来三年拟引进接收的波音飞机数量分别是南航 92架、东航53架、国航45架，合计190架。同时也会退出部分老旧波音机型。但眼下"对等关税"严重打 乱了航空公司既有的运力规划，许多航线拓展计划被迫延迟，也影响了航空公司的战略布局。 ...

关税战逐渐降温，美联储降息预期或成市场焦点？本周数据会否重塑降息预期？顺姐正在连线国信期货 首席分析师顾冯达，点击观看 相关链接 行情实时分析解读 ...

Core Insights - In March, China's steel exports reached 10.46 million tons, exceeding 10 million tons for the month again. In the first quarter, steel exports totaled 27.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, marking one of the rare increases in recent years [1] - The increase in steel exports is attributed to domestic exporters and foreign clients rushing to export due to concerns over potential trade remedy investigations and uncertainties from the U.S. tariff war later in the year [1] - The Chinese steel industry is facing unprecedented challenges, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese steel products rising to 70% due to measures like "232" and "301," affecting specific products such as pipes and coated sheets [1] Industry Statistics - In 2024, China faced 33 trade remedy cases against its steel products, surpassing the total number of cases from 2020 to 2023, with 8 new investigations since the beginning of the year [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's crude steel production for 2024 is projected at 1.005 billion tons, with apparent consumption at 892 million tons, indicating that domestic demand remains the primary focus for the steel industry [2] - The domestic demand for steel is declining, and the structural adjustments are causing pain points, leading to a rapid increase in steel supply while demand is decreasing, disrupting the fragile market balance [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current state of the domestic stock market, which is relatively stable with minor declines in major indices, indicating a lack of significant opportunities [3] - The focus shifts to the U.S. market, where high-level officials are concerned about the market returning to a "danger zone" following previous tensions with China [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is employing a "carrot and stick" approach in dealing with China, suggesting that China has a responsibility to resolve trade issues, which reflects a shift from direct confrontation to a more diplomatic stance [3] Group 2 - The technology sector, particularly semiconductors and artificial intelligence, has shown slight increases, but significant growth is not expected before the upcoming holiday [3] - The article highlights the ongoing effects of recent meetings and discussions, which continue to influence market sentiment and performance [3]

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes that there are no winners in the trade war initiated by the US, urging the US to engage in dialogue based on equality and mutual respect [3][4] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has released information regarding specific projects related to Boeing's aircraft delivery and associated tariffs, reiterating China's consistent stance on tariff issues [4] - China expresses an open attitude towards cultural exchange and cooperation with South Korea, encouraging both sides to work together to advance cooperation across various fields [5] Group 2 - China calls for restraint between India and Pakistan, highlighting the importance of their peaceful coexistence for regional stability and development [6] - The Chinese government supports all efforts aimed at peace regarding the Ukraine crisis, advocating for dialogue and negotiation to resolve the situation [7] - China maintains a traditional friendship with Syria, supporting the country's peace and reconstruction efforts through inclusive dialogue while opposing terrorism and extremism [8]

4月29日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 外交部：关税战、贸易战没有赢家 有记者就美国财长相关涉华言论提问。 对此，郭嘉昆表示，中方多次阐明关税战、贸易战没有赢家。这场关税战是美方发起的，如果美方想通过对话 谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁施压，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方开展对话。 外交部：美方应停止威胁和施压 有记者就波音公司飞回拟交付飞机以及相关关税问题提问。 对此，郭嘉昆表示，有关具体的项目中国商务部已经发布了有关消息，你可以查阅。我想，中方在关税问题上 的立场是一贯的。我们也想再次强调，如果美方希望通过对话来解决问题的话，那么就要停止威胁和施压，在 平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方开展对话。 外交部：望韩方与中方共同努力，推动双方各领域交流合作向前发展 有记者就中韩关系有关问题提问。 图片来源：外交部网站 对此，郭嘉昆表示，我不了解你提到的有关演出的具体的情况。我想强调的是，我们对同韩方开展有益的文化 交流合作持开放的态度，希望韩方与中方共同努力，推动双方各领域交流合作向前发展。 外交部：呼吁印巴双方保持克制 共同维护地区的和平与稳定 有记者就印度和巴基斯坦因克什米尔地区恐袭事件关系紧张相关问题 ...

观察者网消息，美方挑起关税战前夕，美国零售巨头沃尔玛公司曾打起"将关税负担转嫁中方"的歪脑筋， 在被中方约谈后，这才开始想起来"找补"。 据香港《南华早报》4月29日报道，在中美贸易争端升级而导致货运量锐减后，最近几天，沃尔玛和其他 美国主要零售商已通知中国江浙地区的部分制造商恢复供货。 "我们的长期合作伙伴沃尔玛已经通知我们开始（向美国）发货，我们不需要承担（对中国商品）新关税 的额外成本。"4月28日，宁波一家大型文具办公用品出口商的副总裁透露，已收到沃尔玛的通知，要求它 们恢复对美国的正常供货。该公司表示，新进口关税的成本将由美国客户承担。此外，江苏也至少有一家 出口商接到了需求复苏的备货通知。 另据香港《明报》4月26日报道，近期正举行的第137届中国进出口商品交易会（广交会）期间，多名出口 商也不约而同提到，在沃尔玛、家得宝（Home Depot）、塔吉特（Target）等零售巨头于当地时间4月21日 同美国总统特朗普会谈后，沃尔玛已通知中国供应商恢复发送因本月初关税战开打而暂时停运的货物，关 税由美方买家承担。 美国一家沃尔玛购物超市 资料图 "我们了解到，（美国）主要零售商已建议其中国供应商恢复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes that there are no winners in the trade war initiated by the United States, advocating for dialogue based on equality, respect, and reciprocity [1] Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterates its stance that the trade war and tariff conflict have no winners [1] - The spokesperson, Guo Jia Kun, states that the trade war was initiated by the U.S. [1] - The Chinese side calls for the U.S. to cease threats and pressure if it wishes to resolve issues through dialogue [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's steel exports are facing unprecedented challenges due to trade investigations and tariffs imposed by various countries, particularly the United States [1][2][3] - In March, China's steel exports reached 10.46 million tons, exceeding 10 million tons for the month, and the first quarter exports totaled 27.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - The increase in exports is attributed to domestic exporters and foreign clients rushing to export before potential trade relief investigations and tariff uncertainties take effect later in the year [1] Group 2 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on Chinese steel products to 70%, with some products facing tariffs exceeding this rate, impacting the overall export dynamics [2] - The U.S. imports less than 1% of China's total steel exports, primarily consisting of pipes, wires, seamless tubes, and tinplate [2] - In 2024, China's indirect steel exports are projected to reach 134 million tons, with 16.6 million tons directed to the U.S., which will be significantly affected by the current tariff levels [2] Group 3 - The U.S. tariff barriers have triggered a chain reaction, leading countries like the EU, Canada, Turkey, and India to initiate safeguard investigations on imported steel products [3] - In 2024, China faced 33 trade remedy cases, surpassing the total number of cases from 2020 to 2023, with 8 new investigations occurring since the beginning of the year [3] - It is predicted that the combination of high U.S. tariffs and other countries' trade barriers could impact China's direct and indirect steel exports by over 20 million tons by 2025, primarily affecting high-end steel products [3]