当前论点普遍认为碳中和引领的绿色转型是以花费大量成本为代价的，尤其从短中期来看，但事实上其 中孕育着巨大的投资和发展机遇，这也可以从中央经济会议确定的未来经济工作的重点任务中窥见一 斑。 首先，双碳目标实现的关键是根本性的能源替代转型，要构建以清洁能源为主体的能源系统，有赖于多 种关键矿产资源的大量消耗。研究显示，碳中和愿景下的能源转型将带动国内银、镉、锗、铟、硒、 碲、铜、锡和锌等关键矿产需求的大幅提升；在当前的储量水平上，2060年全球硒和镉矿产的储量分别 需要增加14.3和4.9倍才能满足中国及全球风光发电的需求。加大资源勘探力度并强化勘探技术研发投入 是增加可供开采的储量的不二选择。同时，开展资源回收利用相关的技术和服务投资也将显著降低可再 生能源技术发展对关键矿产的需求。 （本文作者段宏波为中国科学院大学经济与管理学院教授） 其次，大规模储能设施和技术发展是解决可再生能源间歇性利用问题，实现多能互补，继而推动能源绿 色转型发展的关键。针对我国在智能电网、微电网、分布式能源、氢能和电动汽车等领域的需求，结合 储能商业与示范工程建设，强化上述领域的储能产业技术研发，将是有长远前景的重要投资方向。此 外， ...

Core Viewpoint - Ghana is undertaking a comprehensive update of its climate prosperity plan, emphasizing the need for enhanced investment pathways and improved project preparation while reaffirming its commitment to a green and resilient economic transition [1] Group 1: Climate Policy Integration - The updated climate policy plan is aligned with the government's flagship projects, including the "24-hour economy," "accelerated export development plan," and "big push" initiative [1] - This integration ensures that climate-principled investments directly support national growth priorities, enhancing Ghana's competitiveness in global emerging markets [1] Group 2: Financing and Tools - The revised climate policy plan incorporates global climate financing reforms and new tools such as the loss and damage fund, new collective quantification targets, and carbon markets [1] - Ghana plans to leverage these tools to attract more financing [1]

Core Insights - The Atum Solar Egypt project has been launched in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, with an investment of approximately $220 million aimed at producing 2 gigawatts of photovoltaic cells and components annually [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The Atum Solar Egypt project covers an area of about 200,000 square meters [1] - The project is expected to contribute significantly to Egypt's renewable energy transformation and carbon emission reduction [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The project represents a strategic step towards localizing Egypt's photovoltaic industry [1] - The Suez Canal Economic Zone is seeking to transition towards a green economy in line with global development trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The second round of testing for the bulk trading market is set to begin in January 2026, as part of the ongoing efforts to advance the green economy transition and improve the national carbon market system [1][3]. Group 1: Green Economy Transition - The green economy transition is being pursued with a focus on steady progress, phased advancement, preliminary testing, and continuous improvement, indicating a deepening institutionalization and standardization of the carbon market [3][10]. - The national carbon market is a crucial institutional tool for achieving the "dual carbon" goals and serves as an essential infrastructure for promoting the green economy transition [3][11]. Group 2: Bulk Trading Market - The bulk trading mechanism is an important supplement to the national carbon market trading system, enhancing trading efficiency and liquidity management, while providing richer reference information for price formation [5][10]. - The first round of bulk trading testing showed stable and orderly operation, with increased market participation and a well-tested trading system, providing valuable data for future institutional optimization and risk assessment [6][10]. Group 3: Second Round Testing - The upcoming second round of testing will build on the experiences from the first round, focusing on further verifying and improving the trading system, operational mechanisms, and risk prevention capabilities [7][9]. - The second round is not merely a repetition but aims to conduct more systematic stress testing and scenario validation to support the high-quality development of the carbon market [7][11]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Implications - As the timeline for the second round of testing becomes clearer, market expectations for the national carbon market's development are also becoming more defined [9][10]. - The continuous testing and improvement of the bulk trading mechanism will enhance the transparency and continuity of carbon asset price references, boosting investor confidence in the long-term development of the carbon market [10][11].

文 |万联万象 行至2025年末，有色金属领域依然在狂飙的，居然是铝。 这个曾深陷产能过剩与环保诟病的工业金属，在2025年上演了一场令人瞩目的逆袭。铝经历了从年初被 纳入全国碳交易市场的"被约束者"，到年末价格突破2.2万元/吨、创近三年新高的"市场明星"的华丽转 身。 铝产业的这一年，恰是中国传统制造业转型升级的生动缩影。这场变革不仅关乎价格波动，更是一场涉 及能源博弈、环保革命与产业重构的深刻转型。 价格狂飙：25年铝市的"逆袭曲线" 2025年的铝价走势，绘制出了一条令人瞩目的上升曲线。 2025年铝期货价格走势 年初，沪铝期货价格还在1.97万元/吨附近徘徊，市场情绪谨慎，在4月份更是跌到了1.9万元/吨的低位； 进入下半年，价格开启加速模式，最终在12月7日至8日一举突破2.2万元/吨大关，创下2022年以来的最高 纪录。 2025年3月，铝冶炼行业正式纳入全国碳排放权交易市场，标志着这个高耗能行业进入了全新的发展阶 段。这一制度性变革，既是挑战，也是行业从"规模扩张"转向"价值创造"的历史契机。 纳入碳市场意味着电解铝企业必须为每吨碳排放支付成本。据行业测算，按照初期碳价水平，吨铝生产 成本将增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Viewpoints - Indonesia plans to impose a coal export tax starting in 2026 to increase national revenue, which has faced strong opposition from the coal mining association [2][8] - The report recommends companies with strong earnings elasticity such as Yancoal Energy, Jinkong Coal Industry, and focuses on Keda Automation in the smart mining sector [2] - Key companies to watch include major state-owned enterprises like China Coal Energy and China Shenhua, as well as turnaround candidates like China Qinfa [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Global energy prices have shown mixed trends, with Brent crude oil futures at $63.75 per barrel (+0.87%) and WTI at $60.08 per barrel (+2.61%) as of December 5, 2025 [1] - Coal prices have seen slight adjustments, with Newcastle coal at $109.5 per ton (-1.44%) and South African Richards Bay coal at $90.8 per ton (+5.13%) [1][36] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - China Coal Energy: Buy with EPS estimates of 1.46, 1.21, 1.29, and 1.39 for 2024A to 2027E [7] - China Shenhua: Buy with EPS estimates of 2.95, 2.56, 2.71, and 2.86 for 2024A to 2027E [7] - Jinkong Coal Industry: Buy with EPS estimates of 1.68, 1.23, 1.47, and 1.62 for 2024A to 2027E [7] - Yancoal Energy: Buy with EPS estimates of 1.44, 0.99, 1.18, and 1.37 for 2024A to 2027E [7] - China Qinfa: Buy with EPS estimates of 0.20, 0.06, 0.27, and 0.47 for 2024A to 2027E [7] Market Trends - The coal industry is facing challenges due to the proposed export tax, which may impact its competitiveness in the global market [2][8] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring coal demand and pricing trends as the industry navigates these changes [2][36]

Core Insights - The green economy in China is rapidly advancing, driven by the "dual carbon" strategy and the implementation of the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" [2][3] - The transition to a green economy is reshaping national development by integrating green as a new productivity force, aligning wealth growth with ecological harmony [3][5] - A series of significant policies have been introduced to support this transition, providing a structured framework for green economic development [3][5] Policy and Framework - The green economy transition is policy-driven, with key documents such as "Opinions on Accelerating Comprehensive Green Transformation of Economic and Social Development" and "Guidance Directory for Green Low-Carbon Transition Industries (2024 Edition)" laying the groundwork [3] - The establishment of a green financial system is crucial for facilitating high-quality development, with a focus on integrating green bonds, carbon financial tools, and digital service platforms [3][5] Public Participation and Benefits - The green economy transition creates a platform for public participation, allowing individuals to engage in national green projects like infrastructure upgrades and clean energy technology improvements [5] - Participants in green projects can enjoy policy benefits, making the national strategy more accessible and quantifiable in terms of ecological value [5] Economic and Social Impact - The core of the green economy lies in wealth reconstruction, where green finance evolves from institutional frameworks to a shared economy involving all citizens [7] - This transition promotes a new economic behavior where low carbon is seen as a growth engine rather than a limitation, fostering a system that rewards sustainable actions [7] - The green economy aims to create a sustainable wealth force, emphasizing that every action and choice has inherent value [7]

Core Insights - The launch of the Green Economy Transition APP marks a significant milestone in China's green finance digital service system, supporting the deep integration of economy and ecology [1][3] - The platform is developed under the national strategy to accelerate comprehensive green transformation, aiming to facilitate carbon reduction, pollution control, and sustainable growth [3][4] Summary by Sections Platform Overview - The Green Economy Transition APP serves as a comprehensive service platform for the green economy, connecting policy information, financial resources, and ecological data through digital technology [4] - It represents a shift from top-level design to systematic implementation in the field of green economy [4] Core Functional Modules - **Policy Intelligence Platform**: Aggregates national and local green policies, tax incentives, and industry support, utilizing smart algorithms for precise policy matching and personalized recommendations [5] - **Green Finance Supermarket**: Consolidates green credit, funds, and carbon financial products, providing verifiable and traceable financing and investment channels for users [6] - **Carbon Account System**: Introduces the concept of "personal green assets," allowing users to track their green consumption and carbon reduction efforts, quantifying ecological contributions into wealth [7] Future Directions - The platform aims to enhance its functionalities, promote the deep integration of green data, policies, and financial systems, and explore new paths for international cooperation in green finance [7]

Core Viewpoint - The United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) recognizes China's development experience as crucial for achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, highlighting China's role as a strong partner in promoting sustainable industrialization globally [1][2]. Group 1: China's Development Achievements - Over the past 40 years, China has successfully lifted 800 million people out of hunger and poverty, marking one of the most significant development achievements in human history [1]. - China's ongoing green economic transformation and capabilities in green and digital innovation hold immense potential for accelerating the global transition to sustainability [1]. Group 2: UNIDO and China's Collaboration - UNIDO has supported China's transformation and its efforts to promote sustainable industrialization worldwide, exemplified by flagship projects such as the China-Africa UNIDO Center of Excellence and the Global Industrial Artificial Intelligence Alliance [1]. - The partnership has resulted in significant initiatives that enhance industrial cooperation and sustainable development [1]. Group 3: Global Development Initiatives - China's Belt and Road Initiative and Global Development Initiative align with the vision of inclusive, sustainable, and resilient growth, expanding trade with developing countries and providing zero-tariff access for the least developed nations [2]. - UNIDO assists developing countries in seizing new opportunities for economic diversification and modernization, improving local food production efficiency and food security [2]. Group 4: China's Role in Global Sustainability - China's leadership in solar and battery technologies offers accessible and cost-effective sustainable solutions for countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America [2]. - Investments in industrial parks and economic zones in countries like Ethiopia, Egypt, and Senegal create jobs, stimulate economic growth, and help these nations integrate into the global value chain [2].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced export controls on certain overseas rare earth-related items containing Chinese components, effective immediately for some provisions and starting December 1 for others [1][8]. - Export applications for military purposes will generally not be permitted, and applications for items intended for the development and production of advanced semiconductor technologies will be subject to case-by-case approval [1][4][6]. - The new regulations require exporters to obtain dual-use item export licenses for specific items that contain Chinese components or utilize Chinese technology in their production [3][7]. Group 2 - Rare earth elements are critical in various high-tech and defense applications, with unique properties that make them indispensable in industries such as renewable energy and military technology [11][13][14]. - China holds approximately 40% of the world's rare earth reserves, with a production capacity that accounts for nearly 70% of global output in 2023, and dominates the refining and separation processes [15][16]. - The global rare earth market is projected to exceed $50 billion by 2025, driven by increasing demand in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [18][19]. Group 3 - The U.S. and EU are seeking to diversify their rare earth supply chains due to heavy reliance on China, implementing measures to boost domestic production and recycling efforts [19][20]. - China's strategic control over rare earth resources is reinforced through export quotas and tariffs, positioning the country as a key player in the global supply chain [20][22]. - The future of the rare earth industry will depend on technological innovation and international collaboration, with China aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the global market [20][22].