智通财经5月20日电，巴基斯坦政府表示，巴基斯坦在2024 - 2025财年第三季度实现了2.40%的增长。 ...

巴基斯坦政府：巴基斯坦2024-25财年第三季度经济增长2.40%。 ...

卡塔尔首相：卡塔尔经济持续表现乐观，预计2024年实际增长率为2.4%，主要受非 油气领域持续发展 的推动。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged, marking the third consecutive time it has refrained from adjusting rates after a series of cuts in the previous year [1][2] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve and stated that the current policy is appropriately restrictive, indicating that President Trump's calls for rate cuts will not influence their decisions [1][2] - Despite a contraction in the U.S. economy in the first quarter, April's consumer and employment data suggest resilience in economic growth, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [2][3] Group 2 - Inflation indicators show that the March CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 2.8%, both below market expectations [3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, still above the Fed's 2% target [3] - The Fed's statement highlighted an increase in uncertainty regarding economic prospects, with risks of high unemployment and inflation both rising [3][5] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that short-term inflation may rise due to tariff impacts, but falling energy prices and unstable demand could alleviate inflationary pressures [4][5] - Powell expressed concerns about the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies and their potential long-term effects on economic growth and inflation [5][6] - The current economic outlook indicates that the Fed may not need to cut rates immediately, but the ongoing uncertainty could lead to a future rate cut [6][7]

通胀预计快速降温、欧央行6月降息几成定局 在出口面临压力的同时，通货膨胀预计将迅速降温。由于能源价格下跌和欧元走强，欧盟委员会预计 2026年欧元区的通货膨胀率将平均为1.7%，低于欧洲央行2%的通胀目标。这将促使欧洲央行在6月初发 布新预测，并可能进一步降低借贷成本以实现通胀目标。 虽然欧元自征收关税以来意外上涨，降低了进口价格并有助于抑制通胀，但欧元走强也强化了高关税对 出口的影响。Dombrovskis表示: 在半年一度的经济前景报告中，欧盟由于美国提高关税打击出口，大幅下调今明两年经济增长预期，且 同时预计通胀将更快降温。 周二，欧盟委员会在最新报告中预计，欧元区20个国家的GDP今年将增长0.9%，2026年增长1.4%，低 于此前预测的1.3%和1.6%。 欧盟委员会还下调了今年出口的增长预测，从上次预估的2.2%大幅降至0.7%。而且这一预测假设美国 对欧盟大部分进口商品的关税维持在10%的水平，而不是特朗普4月2日宣布的更高水平。 负责经济事务的欧盟高级官员Valdis Dombrovskis表示： 美国关税声明背后不可预测且看似武断的理由，使经济不确定性达到了疫情最黑暗时刻以来 的最高水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking the first time since 2023 that the rate has fallen below 4%, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1] Economic Conditions - Inflation has significantly decreased from its peak in 2022, with expectations to stabilize at 2.6% over the next three years, but economic growth is under pressure [2] - GDP growth is projected to be 1.8% by June 2025, with subsequent years at 2.2% for both 2026 and 2027 [3] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly, reaching 4.2% by June 2025 and stabilizing at 4.3% for 2026 and 2027 [3] - In a trade war scenario, the unemployment rate could approach 6%, with GDP potentially declining by over 3% and the Australian dollar depreciating by about 6% [3] Global Risks and Policy Outlook - The RBA has noted a significant increase in global economic uncertainty and financial market volatility over the past three months [4] - Geopolitical tensions may further weaken global economic activity, potentially leading households and businesses to delay spending, which would negatively impact Australia's growth, employment, and inflation outlook [4] - If trade tensions ease, global economic growth may accelerate, potentially reducing the extent of future rate cuts by the RBA [4] - Future cash rate predictions include 4.0% by June 2025 and a decrease to 3.2% by June 2026 and 2027, indicating that future policy direction will heavily depend on inflation control and external economic conditions [4]

瑞士央行行长施莱格尔：不确定性不利于经济增长。 ...

Economic Growth - In April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.0%, indicating a stable economic growth despite external pressures [1][2] - The overall economic growth in April reflects a recovery trend, supported by domestic demand policies and a diversified export strategy, despite a 21% year-on-year decline in exports to the US [1][3] Export Performance - China's exports in April, measured in US dollars, increased by 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the 5.7% growth rate in the first quarter, demonstrating resilience against external challenges [3][4] - The nominal growth rate of export delivery value from industrial enterprises in April was only 0.9%, a significant drop from the 6.7% growth in the first quarter, indicating pressure from US tariffs [4] Consumer Market - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment saw significant year-on-year growth rates of 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% respectively, contributing to the overall retail sales growth [5] - The fixed asset investment growth rate remained at 4% for the first four months, supported by infrastructure investment, while manufacturing investment grew by 8.8% [5] Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, aiming for sustained economic development [2][9] - The expansion of domestic demand policies, including the "old-for-new" consumption policy, is anticipated to continue supporting economic recovery [5][10] Real Estate Market - The real estate market remains under pressure, with weak demand and a slowdown in project starts affecting investment, despite recent monetary easing measures [10][11] - Future policies are expected to focus on stabilizing the real estate market, enhancing supply of quality housing, and promoting urban renewal initiatives [11][12]

美联储威廉姆斯：受贸易问题影响，第一季度经济增长异常。 ...

鉴于美国的超常增长将经受住特朗普的考验，因此纵使在贸易政策上存在一些噪音，来自各类投资组合 的资金流入仍将持续。 自2022年底推出ChatGPT以来（我在2022年出版的《巨型威胁》一书中就预测过了），与人工智能相关 的投资推动了美国资本支出的繁荣。即使是关税和由此带来的不确定性也没能从根本上改变大多数大型 科技企业、人工智能超大规模云服务商和其他企业的运行指导方针。许多企业甚至将其人工智能投资翻 了一番。 如果技术能将经济增长从2%提高到4%，那么潜在增长率就可以提高200个基点。而即使那些严厉的贸 易保护和移民限制也最多只能使潜在增长减少50个基点。正负之比为四比一；从中期来看，技术将压倒 关税。 正如我最近在其他地方所论述的，就算是米老鼠当了总统，美国仍将实现4%的增长，因为美国私营部 门的创新有望抵消那些糟糕的政策和反复无常的政策制定。 由人工智能驱动的投资热潮还意味着无论是否征收高额关税，美国的经常账户赤字都将居高不下且呈现 上升趋势（反映出储蓄低迷与投资繁荣之间的反差）。但鉴于美国的超常增长将经受住特朗普的考验， 因此纵使在贸易政策上存在一些噪音，来自各类投资组合的资金流入仍将持续。尽管固定收益 ...