Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the impact of President Trump's decision to delay tariffs on the EU, which has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for silver, resulting in a slight decline in silver prices [1][2] - The latest price of paper silver is reported at 7.712 yuan per gram, reflecting a decrease of 0.12% [1] - Trump's announcement to extend the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU until July 9 was made after a positive conversation with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [2] Group 2 - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds faced weak demand, with a bid yield of 5.047%, significantly higher than market expectations and the average of the last six auctions [3] - The disappointing auction results have raised concerns about the weakening demand for long-term U.S. Treasuries, with the yield on 20-year bonds rising to 5.127% following the auction [3] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing debate over tax reform proposals in Congress is amplifying fears regarding U.S. asset demand and the potential increase in national debt by $3 trillion to $5 trillion due to Trump's tax reform plan [3] Group 3 - Paper silver has shown a strong rebound, moving back above the 5-week moving average, indicating a resurgence of bullish momentum [4] - Short-term forecasts suggest that paper silver prices may continue to strengthen, with resistance levels identified at 7.75-7.80 yuan per gram and support levels at 7.50-7.60 yuan per gram [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the price trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies of various precious metals and non - ferrous metals. It takes into account factors such as interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and geopolitical situations. Overall, different metals have different outlooks, with some being cautiously bullish and others being neutral or cautiously bearish [36][38][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1内外价差结构及比价 - **内盘价差结构**: Presented the SHFE price difference structures of gold, silver, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, stainless steel, and nickel from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [4][7] - **外盘价差结构**: Showed the price difference structures of LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, and the premiums of Comex gold, silver, and copper over London and LME counterparts, covering May 19 - May 23, 2025 [9][12] - **比价**: Included various ratios such as domestic and international copper, lead, aluminum, zinc, nickel, gold, and silver ratios, as well as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel ratios excluding exchange rates from 2021 - 2025 [19][23][26] 3.2各品种观点 - **贵金属**: In the week of May 23, factors like rising U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and geopolitical tensions influenced the market. Gold and silver are cautiously bullish, with recommended buying ranges of 770 - 775 yuan/gram for gold and 7,950 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [36] - **铜**: With tight mine supply and low TC prices, copper is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [38] - **铅**: Currently in the consumption off - season with weak demand, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the range of 16,920 - 16,950 yuan/ton [39] - **铝**: The supply is stable with a slight increase, while consumption is showing a downward trend. The sustainability of consumption is in question, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [41] - **氧化铝**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price of bauxite has support. The market is expected to remain in a state of supply surplus [42] - **锌**: The supply of zinc ore is stable, and the processing fees are expected to rise. Consumption is relatively strong, but there are risks of marginal decline. The market is neutral [44][45][46] - **镍**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and consumption is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [48] - **不锈钢**: Supply is abundant, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - to - long term [50] - **硅**: The supply may decrease slightly, and demand is weak. If the southwest silicon furnaces operate normally, inventory is expected to accumulate in the third quarter [52][53] - **多晶硅**: Consumption is showing signs of weakness, and supply is expected to jointly reduce production but is difficult to achieve in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate widely [55][56] - **锂**: Supply may decrease, and consumption is stable. The inventory has increased slightly. The price has fallen to the 60,000 - yuan mark, and it is recommended to sell on rallies if there is a rebound [58] 3.3相关数据跟踪 - **贵金属 data**: Tracked U.S. and European bond yields, inflation expectations, TIPS yields, gold and silver ETF holdings, and CFTC positions from 2021 - 2025 [61][62][65] - **铜 data**: Tracked TC prices, refined - scrap spreads, import profits and losses, CFTC positions, domestic and LME inventories, and downstream sector indices from 2021 - 2025 [74][75][78] - **铝 data**: Tracked seasonal social inventories, LME inventories, cost - profit, and import profits and losses from 2021 - 2025 [80][84][88] - **氧化铝 data**: Tracked prices, total inventories, import profits and losses, and production costs and profits from 2022 - 2025 [95][96][99] - **锌 data**: Tracked price differences, inventories, processing fees, production profits, and import profits and losses from 2020 - 2025 [103][109][113] - **镍 and stainless steel data**: Tracked prices, inventories, premiums, import profits and losses, and profit margins from 2017 - 2025 [124][125][132] - **工业硅 data**: Tracked prices, production costs, and social inventories from 2022 - 2024 [147][148][152] - **多晶硅 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and supply - demand balances from 2023 - 2025 [155][156] - **碳酸锂 data**: Tracked prices, inventories, and production from 2021 - 2025 [158][159][161]

Core Insights - The strong performance of the gold market is driven by a combination of global economic weakness and heightened risk aversion, with gold returns significantly outperforming U.S. stocks as of April 2025, marking the largest return gap in two years [1][3] - The current market environment is complex, with factors such as a weak dollar and geopolitical risks enhancing gold's appeal as a safe haven [1][4] Market Trends - Historical data shows that gold has consistently delivered excess returns during financial crises, high inflation, and geopolitical conflicts, with the current situation resembling the 2018 trade war but with more intricate driving factors [3][4] - The end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle is expected to reduce the pressure on gold from real interest rates, potentially leading to a stronger rebound [4] - Institutional investors' gold holdings remain below historical peaks, indicating significant room for increased allocation [5] Supporting Factors - Geopolitical risks, such as conflicts in the Middle East and disruptions in energy supply chains, are likely to persist, maintaining gold's "insurance premium" [6] - Economic data volatility, particularly in U.S. employment and inflation, raises doubts about a "soft landing," thereby increasing demand for safe-haven assets [6] - Central banks in emerging markets continue to increase their gold reserves, providing a hidden support for gold prices [7] Investment Strategies - For new investors, a three-step approach is recommended: define investment goals, consider a 5%-15% allocation to gold as a portfolio stabilizer, and regularly review market conditions to avoid overconfidence [10][11] - Advanced strategies should combine event-driven opportunities with technical signals, particularly during the initial 48 hours of geopolitical conflicts [11] - Key technical levels include $3,300 as a psychological barrier, with a potential breakout leading to a target of $3,500, while a pullback to $3,200 could present a buying opportunity [12] Conclusion - The analysis from Macro Global Markets suggests that gold's investment logic in 2025 balances defensive and offensive strategies, emphasizing the importance of patience and systematic accumulation during market volatility [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The gold price rebounded strongly this week due to factors such as Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and fiscal concerns triggered by Trump's tax - cut bill. In the medium - to - long - term, the gold price is supported by safe - haven demand and a weaker US dollar, while the silver price follows the gold price but is relatively soft due to economic uncertainties, yet its demand remains resilient [7]. - For the outlook, the previously released CPI and PPI data suggest potential Fed rate cuts this year, but tariff policy uncertainties and the US debt problem may make the global de - dollarization trend persist. Gold investment demand is solid, and in the case of silver, although the price is affected by gold, the silver - gold ratio has moved up [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Drivers**: The gold price rebounded due to factors like Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, tensions in the Middle East, and fiscal concerns from Trump's tax - cut bill. The downgraded dollar credit rating and potential future debt increases provide long - term support for the gold price. However, the strong US labor market led to a short - term strengthening of the dollar, suppressing the gold price. The silver price followed the gold price but was relatively soft, and its demand remains resilient [7]. - **Market Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, the gold price is supported by safe - haven demand and a weaker dollar. The silver price is affected by the gold price, and the silver - gold ratio has moved up due to economic uncertainties [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: As of May 23, 2025, COMEX gold was at $3324.7 per ounce, up 4.30% week - on - week; Shanghai gold futures were at 780.10 yuan per gram, up 3.76%. COMEX silver was at $33.38 per ounce, up 3.16%; Shanghai silver futures were at 8263 yuan per kilogram, up 1.95% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of May 22, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 0.44% to 923.89 tons, while the SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 0.55% to 14132.66 tons [16]. - **COMEX Positions**: As of May 13, 2025, COMEX gold total positions decreased by 2.56% to 440842 contracts, and net positions decreased by 0.79% to 161209 contracts. COMEX silver total positions decreased by 1.43% to 138262 contracts, and net positions decreased by 3.04% to 47754 contracts [19]. - **Basis Changes**: As of May 23, 2025, the gold basis was - 4.38 yuan per gram, down 87.98% week - on - week, and the silver basis was - 19 yuan per kilogram, up 42.42% [23]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX and Shanghai gold and silver inventories showed mixed changes [24]. 3. Industry Situation - **Silver Industry**: As of the end of March 2025, China's silver import volume decreased. The year - on - year growth rate of downstream integrated circuit production slowed down, and the overall silver supply - demand was in a tight - balance state [34][36]. - **Gold Industry**: This week, the gold recycling price and jewelry price continued to rise, and the gold investment demand increased month - on - month [41][47]. 4. Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: This week, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased significantly. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility rebounded, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased [50][55].

Group 1 - International gold prices opened strong, hovering around the $3,300 mark, supported by various moving averages and buying interest [1] - Gold prices softened on Thursday due to profit-taking after several days of gains, with the dollar continuing its upward trend, increasing by 0.3%, making gold more expensive for international buyers [3] - Despite concerns over U.S. fiscal risks and global bond market volatility supporting safe-haven demand, funds shifted towards the dollar [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Federal Reserve Board members are protected from being dismissed by the President, indicating strong resistance against any such efforts [2] - The court's decision highlighted the unique structure of the Federal Reserve as a quasi-private entity, following historical traditions of the first and second banks of the United States [2] - The ruling did not explicitly prohibit the President from dismissing Federal Reserve members, but it suggests that such actions would face significant legal challenges [2]

Group 1 - International gold prices have returned to the $3,300 per ounce mark, leading to increased attention on gold-related assets [1][3] - As of May 22, 13 gold ETFs continued to rise, with the highest increase being 0.23%, following a strong performance on May 21 where 20 gold ETFs surged over 3% [3] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to global geopolitical instability, a weak US dollar, and uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies, which have heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors [3][4] Group 2 - Fund inflows into gold ETFs have seen a significant turnaround, with a net inflow of approximately 370 million yuan on May 21, and a notable shift from net outflows to inflows in the following days [3] - Multiple public fund institutions are optimistic about the long-term value of gold, suggesting that it serves as a hedge against equity risks and can provide capital gains [4] - Short-term volatility in gold prices is expected, but the underlying factors such as expanding global fiscal deficits and central bank buying are likely to support gold prices in the long run [4]

Market Dynamics - The gold market is currently experiencing complex volatility, with significant fluctuations in domestic spot gold prices and similar dynamics in the international market, leading to increased investor attention [1] - Global economic uncertainty remains a primary driver for rising gold prices, as factors such as global debt risks, geopolitical tensions, and potential economic recession risks sustain strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has a significant impact on gold prices, with expectations of sustained high interest rates in the short term increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby exerting pressure on gold prices [3] - However, the ongoing trend of central banks globally increasing their gold reserves provides strong support for gold prices in the long term [3] Future Outlook for Gold Market - In the short term, gold prices may continue to be influenced by Federal Reserve monetary policy and economic data, with potential hawkish signals from upcoming meetings possibly leading to higher dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which could further suppress gold prices [4] - Long-term prospects for gold remain positive, supported by its recognized safe-haven value, the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings, and ongoing global economic uncertainty, with forecasts suggesting gold prices could reach $3,300 per ounce by the end of 2025 [4] Company Services - In this market environment, companies like 富慧证券 leverage their professional financial services to offer diversified investment options and risk management tools, including precious metal contracts and gold products priced in RMB tailored for clients in China [5] - 富慧证券 also provides advanced trading platforms and professional customer service, offering real-time market analysis and investment advice to help investors seize opportunities in the volatile gold market and achieve stable asset growth [6]

Group 1: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the Chinese stock market, with a baseline expectation for the MSCI China Index at 80 and a target for the CSI 300 Index at 4150 points [1] - UBS sees foreign capital inflow as a significant trading logic for the Chinese stock market in the coming quarters, with Hong Kong stocks expected to outperform A-shares [1] - Deutsche Bank analysts express concerns about fiscal balance in countries outside the US, highlighting Japan's low demand for 20-year bonds as a sign of fiscal stress [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Barclays analysts predict a potential further decline in the US dollar, but strong economic data may limit the extent of the drop [2] - ANZ analysts note that the downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's has reignited interest in gold due to concerns over economic slowdown and rising inflation [3] - CBA forecasts gold prices to reach $3750 per ounce in Q4, driven by safe-haven demand and a weakening dollar [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - CICC reports that the domestic nutrition and health food industry has significant long-term growth potential, with a market size exceeding $35 billion [5] - CITIC Securities indicates that the pesticide industry in China is accelerating consolidation, with leading companies enhancing competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions [6] - CITIC Securities also highlights that the domestic wind turbine industry is expected to enter a phase of simultaneous growth in volume and price due to improved supply-demand dynamics [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have rebounded due to increased geopolitical tensions and concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation, leading to strong market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - Gold prices have shown a short-term upward trend despite previous bearish factors, with the market's basic expectation of stagflation driven by tariff policies remaining unchanged [3] - The long-term upward momentum for gold remains strong, with significant increases in gold imports by China and a notable rise in global gold demand, particularly from ETFs [4] Group 2 - In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 tons, marking a 73% month-on-month increase and the highest level in 11 months [4] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand in Q1 2025 reached 1206 tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 1%, the highest level for the same period since 2016 [4] - Gold investment demand surged over 100% in Q1 2025, reaching 552 tons, a 170% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong recovery in ETF demand [4]

Group 1 - The international gold market has experienced significant volatility since May, with a notable surge in early May followed by a recent pullback, yet there remains a consensus on gold's long-term allocation value [1] - On May 5, gold prices saw a daily increase of over 2.7%, reaching a peak of $3,320 per ounce, marking a new high in two weeks, reflecting deep global economic and geopolitical dynamics [1][3] - The weakening of the US dollar and policy uncertainties have driven demand for gold, with the dollar index dropping to 99.684, enhancing gold's appeal [3] Group 2 - Market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have fluctuated, with strong economic data delaying these expectations and causing increased volatility in gold prices [4] - Central banks globally have been net buyers of gold for six consecutive years, with a notable increase of 244 tons in Q1 2025, while investment demand surged by 170% year-on-year, highlighting gold's growing financial attributes [5] Group 3 - For ordinary investors, the current volatility in the gold market presents both risks and opportunities, with recommendations to closely monitor policy signals and consider strategic positions around key support levels [7] - A suggested allocation of 5%-15% of household assets to gold, utilizing gold ETFs or physical gold bars for risk diversification, is advised, as institutional holdings in domestic gold ETFs have increased by 327% since the beginning of the year [7] - Investors are encouraged to choose compliant platforms to reduce trading costs and manage risks effectively, with some platforms offering low spreads and zero transaction fees [8] Group 4 - The fluctuations in gold prices reflect the uncertainty in the global economy, suggesting that investors should focus on long-term value through diversified allocations and risk awareness rather than chasing short-term volatility [11]