周一（08月04日）金价早盘压力位震荡盘整，市场追多短期布局方案。（8月1日）现货黄金价格飙升 2.23%，盘中触及一周新高3363.37美元/盎司，收盘报3363.16美元/盎司。这一波涨势不仅受到美国非农 就业数据意外疲软的推动，还受到特朗普政府最新关税政策引发的避险需求刺激。全球经济的不确定 性、美元的疲软以及美联储降息预期的升温，共同为黄金的上涨提供了强劲动能。周一（8月4日）亚市 早盘，现货黄金高位震荡，目前交投于3358.66美元/盎司附近。 从技术分析的角度看，黄金的上涨动能正在增强。金价已突破3330和3350美元的阻力位，周线收盘价若 能维持在这一水平上方，将为进一步上涨至3400美元打开空间。当前价格距离3400美元仅差约2%，显 示出多头强劲的进攻态势，鉴于降息预期的激进转变，黄金有望在短期内冲击3400美元/盎司。潜在回 调风险尽管看涨动能强劲，但市场也存在一定的回调风险，若金价跌破3330美元，可能触发进一步下 行，目标指向3300美元以及100日移动平均线。投资者需密切关注未来几周的关键经济数据，尤其是8月 就业报告，因为其结果将直接影响美联储9月会议的决策，从而对金价走势产生重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of weak U.S. non-farm payroll data, increased safe-haven demand due to tariff policies, and heightened global economic uncertainty [1][3][5] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 [3] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, indicating a weakening economic momentum [3] - The manufacturing PMI in the U.S. fell from 49.0 to 48.0, marking a contraction in the manufacturing sector [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index dropped by 1.39% to 98.68, the largest single-day decline since April, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [4] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 24.1 basis points to 3.710%, while the ten-year yield decreased to 4.223%, reflecting strong market expectations for interest rate cuts [4] Group 3: Tariff Policies and Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. has imposed high tariffs on countries like Canada, Brazil, and India, leading to increased market volatility and a rise in safe-haven demand for gold [5] - Geopolitical tensions, including military actions in Gaza and attacks on Russian military enterprises, have further fueled market uncertainty and increased demand for gold [6] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90% following the weak employment data [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that no decision has been made regarding a September rate cut, highlighting internal disagreements within the Fed regarding economic conditions [8] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through key resistance levels at $3,330 and $3,350, with potential to challenge the $3,400 mark if the weekly close remains above these levels [10] - Analysts suggest that the shift in rate cut expectations will support gold's short-term price movements [10] Group 6: Future Considerations - The upcoming August employment data, to be released on September 5, will be crucial for determining the Fed's policy direction and could further influence gold prices [9] - While bullish sentiment is strong, there is a cautionary note regarding potential price corrections if gold falls below $3,330 [11]

Group 1 - Gold concept stocks showed strong performance in early trading, with Zhaojin Mining and Shandong Gold rising over 6%, Chifeng Jilong Gold up over 4%, and Shandong Gold International and Zijin Mining increasing over 3% [1] - The ETF tracking the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index rose over 2% due to market influences [1] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index selects 50 large-cap listed companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales from A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to reflect the overall performance of gold industry listed companies [2] Group 2 - Analysis suggests that weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data has boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, while new tariff announcements have stimulated demand for safe-haven assets [2]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data was weak, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90%, with predictions of two cuts by year-end, and some institutions forecasting a 50 basis point cut in September [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply by 1.39% on August 1, closing at 98.68, marking the largest single-day drop since April. This decline reduced the cost of holding gold. U.S. Treasury yields also dropped significantly, with the 2-year yield falling to 3.710% (the lowest in five weeks) and the 10-year yield dropping to 4.223% (the largest single-day drop since early April), creating a favorable low-interest environment for gold [3] - Tariff policies have heightened demand for safe-haven assets. President Trump imposed high tariffs (25%-50%) on countries like Canada, Brazil, and India, leading to a global stock market crash and increased market risk aversion. This situation has driven demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. The tariffs raised import costs, causing the U.S. manufacturing PMI to drop to 48.0 (indicating contraction for the fifth consecutive month) and factory employment to hit a five-year low, further supporting gold prices amid rising global economic uncertainty [4] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding its policy direction. Chairman Powell previously stated that no decision had been made regarding a September rate cut, but the weak employment data has weakened the hawkish stance. There are internal divisions among officials, with some concerned about the labor market slowdown while others advocate for maintaining interest rates. The upcoming employment data in August (to be released on September 5) will be a critical reference point, and continued weakness may further solidify rate cut expectations [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant rise last Friday, breaking through multiple moving average resistances, indicating strong momentum. The 5-day moving average has turned upward, suggesting short-term upward momentum, while the 10-day moving average remains slightly downward, indicating some divergence in short- to medium-term trends. The 20-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages are flat, suggesting that short-term moving averages may not provide clear guidance for precise short-term direction. Since mid-May, gold has been in a high-level wide-ranging oscillation pattern, and the overall approach should remain cautious regarding premature judgments of a one-sided trend [7] - On the four-hour chart, gold is in the C-wave of a larger correction that began from 3500. The C-wave is further divided, with the C-1 wave dropping to 3247 and the C-2 wave rising to 3438/3439. Currently, gold is experiencing a decline in the C-3 wave after encountering resistance at 3438/3439. The analysis suggests that the recent low of 3268 may mark the end of the C-3-1 wave decline, with a potential upward movement in the C-3-2 wave expected. The focus for the beginning of this week should be on the continuation of the C-3-2 wave upward movement, while monitoring for potential resistance at previous highs [9] - Resistance levels to watch are 3373/3374 and 3402/3403, which correspond to Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent decline. Support levels to monitor are in the range of 3340-3335, with additional support at 3325 and 3315 if the market experiences significant pullbacks [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by weak economic data, expectations of policy easing, and geopolitical risks, with a focus on the upcoming tariff negotiations and Federal Reserve actions [11]. Direct Trigger Factors - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed only a 73,000 increase, significantly below the expected 104,000 and the previous value of 147,000, indicating a weak labor market. This led to a spike in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut from 45% to 75%, causing the dollar index to drop approximately 100 points to 99.23 and the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 4.395%, enhancing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [1]. Political Pressure and Policy Expectations - Former President Trump publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling for immediate rate cuts and suggesting a change in decision-makers if Powell does not act [2]. Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - Two Federal Reserve governors voted against the majority in support of rate cuts, marking the first such occurrence since 1993, signaling a potential shift towards looser monetary policy [3]. Underlying Support Logic - Geopolitical risks and demand for safe-haven assets are rising, with the deadline for U.S.-EU tariff negotiations approaching and tensions in the Middle East (Iran-Israel conflict) driving funds into gold [4]. Market Sentiment Indicators - The "fear index" VIX rose to 21.21, the highest since June, indicating heightened market tension [5]. Central Bank Gold Purchases and Structural Demand - Global central banks have been increasing gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China purchasing gold for eight consecutive months (total reserves of 2,298 tons), and 95% of central banks planning to continue increasing holdings in the next 12 months. Investment demand surged, with global gold ETF inflows of 170 tons in Q2, particularly driven by Asian funds (70 tons), and Chinese demand for gold bars and coins increasing by 44% year-on-year to 115 tons [6]. Technical Breakthroughs and Capital Dynamics - Gold prices broke through the key resistance level of $3,300, triggering algorithmic trading, with New York gold futures premiums reaching $62 per ounce, leading to accelerated speculative capital inflows [7]. Market Impact and Differentiated Performance - Investment behavior is showing a trend of cashing out, with investors in Hangzhou selling 6 kg of gold for 4.7 million yuan, while retail investors face increased risks from chasing prices (brand gold jewelry buyback prices are 80-100 yuan per gram lower than selling prices) [8]. - Related assets like silver and platinum are experiencing gains, with silver up 36% year-to-date (the highest in 14 years) and platinum up 60%, attracting capital due to their industrial properties and undervaluation [8]. Consumer Demand Trends - Gold jewelry consumption in China fell by 20% year-on-year in Q2, with consumers shifting towards lighter gold jewelry or rental models (e.g., wedding "three golds" rental at 3,000 yuan) [9]. Future Outlook and Institutional Divergence - Bullish camp: Central bank gold purchases, weakened dollar credibility, and geopolitical risks could push gold prices above $4,000 by 2026 (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) [9]. - Bearish camp: Delayed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve or better-than-expected economic recovery could see prices retreat to $2,500-$2,700 by 2026 (Citigroup) [9]. Long-term Allocation Strategy - Physical gold is recommended, with a preference for bank gold bars/coins (asset proportion should be controlled at 5%-10% of total family assets), and dollar-cost averaging in gold ETFs to spread costs [11].

【黄金期货行情表现】 在高利率环境和全球化重构的大背景下，黄金的定价机制正在由传统的以实际利率为核心向以央行购金 为核心，央行购金的行为是关键，背后是"去中心化"、避险需求的集中体现。货币属性方面，特朗普的 大而美法案顺利通过，美国债务问题有望加重，导致美元的货币信用出现裂痕，在去美元化进程中黄金 的去法币化属性凸显。金融属性方面，在全球高利率环境下，黄金作为零息债对债券的替代效应减弱， 对美债实际利率的敏感度下降。避险属性方面，地缘政治风险边际减弱，特朗普的关税政策加剧全球贸 易紧张，市场避险需求仍在，成为阶段性推升黄金价格的重要因素。商品属性方面，中国实物金需求明 显上升，央行从去年11月重启增持黄金，已连续增持八个月。目前来看，推升本轮金价上涨的逻辑没有 完全逆转，美联储的利率政策和关税政策可能是短期扰动因素，预计今年的利率政策会更加谨慎，关税 政策和地缘政治冲突的演变主导着市场避险情绪变化。根据美国最新数据，非农数据显示劳动力市场韧 性较强，非农就业人口超过市场预期，失业率下降至4.1%。6月PCE数据显示通胀数据放缓，核心PCE 同比上涨2.8%，超过市场预期，PCE同比上涨2.6%，超过市场预期， ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE levels increase volatility, and in Q3, the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing should be noted. [5] - It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions. For those with a short - term view, they can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity after the silver's upward momentum fades. [4][5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The potential harm of the US - EU trade agreement to the European economy led to a more than 1% drop in the euro against the US dollar, pushing the US dollar index to around 99. The easing of international trade and the cease - fire on the Thai - Cambodian border reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold fell to around $3300 per ounce, while silver with strong industrial attributes was strong due to Sino - US trade negotiation expectations. [4] - Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise. [4] - This week, attention should be paid to Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill reduced the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but Trump's policies and geopolitical risks supported the price. [5] - In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. [5] - It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, waiting for the next upward breakthrough. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7][9][11] 3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Sino - US senior economic officials held over five - hour talks in Stockholm to extend the trade truce by three months. [17] - A cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia took effect at midnight on Monday, ending a deadly conflict. [17] - Trump set a new deadline for Russia to make progress in ending the Ukraine war. [17] - Trump expects to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements with the US and will send notice letters to about 200 countries. The US is considering changing its Myanmar policy regarding rare - earth resources. The EU and the US will establish a metal alliance as part of the trade agreement. [18]

Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with market focus on whether the policy statement will convey dovish signals [3] - Economic data presents mixed signals: June job openings decreased and hiring numbers fell, indicating a weak labor market, while the July consumer confidence index rose to 97.2, exceeding expectations [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.330%, the lowest since July 3, reflecting market risk aversion and bets on a shift in Federal Reserve policy [4] - Following the U.S.-EU and U.S.-Japan trade agreements, external risks have decreased, potentially creating space for a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a small upward movement after four consecutive days of decline, indicating a potential slowdown in the downtrend [7] - Key resistance levels for gold are at 3335/3336 and 3345, while support levels are at 3302/3301, 3282, and 3275 [7][9] - The four-hour chart suggests that if gold can hold above the 3302/3301 level, it may confirm an upward structure, with targets set at 3354, 3370, and 3386/3387 [9]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices showed insufficient upward momentum and retreated, with the market adopting a short-light positioning strategy [1] - The upcoming week will face multiple significant risk events, including international trade dynamics, central bank interest rate decisions, and key economic data from the US [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during its meeting on July 30, despite strong expectations for a rate cut in September [1] - The two-year Treasury yield slightly increased to 3.926%, indicating subtle adjustments in market interest rate expectations [1] - Gold prices are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations, and a clear signal of rate cuts from the Fed could weaken the dollar, providing upward momentum for gold prices [1] - Current market expectations favor the Fed maintaining stable rates, coupled with a strong dollar, which poses downward pressure on gold prices [1] Geopolitical Factors - Trump set a 10 to 12-day ultimatum for Russia to make progress in the Ukraine conflict, threatening sanctions and tariffs, which provoked a strong response from Russia [2] - The deteriorating situation in the Middle East, particularly Israel's military actions in Gaza, has increased demand for gold as a safe haven [2] - The UN reported that over half of Gaza's population faces severe food insecurity, raising international concern [2] - The complex geopolitical landscape diminishes hopes for peace, potentially increasing gold's safe-haven demand [2] Market Performance - The US bond market and stock market dynamics provide important context for gold price movements [2] - On July 28, US Treasury prices fell, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rising to 4.414% and 4.962%, respectively, reflecting optimistic market sentiment regarding the global economic outlook [2] - The strong performance of the stock market, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, indicates investor preference for risk assets, which further compresses gold's attractiveness [3] - The upcoming earnings season and key economic data releases, including PCE inflation and employment reports, may introduce new market volatility [3] Technical Analysis - Gold is currently facing multiple challenges, including a strong dollar, rising risk appetite, and increasing real interest rates [3] - The technical level of $3,300 for gold is at risk, and if breached, it may test the support level of $3,250 [3] - Two key variables to watch are the Fed's policy statement and potential setbacks in US-China trade negotiations [3] - The current spot prices are approximately $3,315 per ounce for gold and $38.11 per ounce for silver [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is currently lacking a driving force for a trend, with various factors contributing to market uncertainty and mixed sentiments among investors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market's risk aversion is weakening, and the rapid rebound of the US dollar index has led to gold prices experiencing a third failed rebound since April, indicating a divide between bullish and bearish sentiments [1][2]. - Recent US economic data shows resilience, with initial jobless claims continuing to decline, the services PMI reaching a recent high, and durable goods orders exceeding expectations, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1][3]. - The ongoing trade agreements between the US and countries like Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, as well as a framework with the EU and new negotiations with China, have further decreased market uncertainty, negatively impacting precious metals [1][3]. Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - The gold market is expected to maintain a sideways trend as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with limited pricing for a potential rate cut [3][4]. - Despite the strengthening of the US dollar, gold prices have shown some resilience, with a decline of only about 0.74% even as the dollar appreciated over 1%, indicating strategic buyers are still willing to accumulate gold positions [3][4]. - Silver is benefiting from the stagnation in gold prices and the expectation of a return to a favorable gold-silver ratio, suggesting that a strategy of buying on dips remains advisable [1][2]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions and Future Outlook - The short-term consolidation of gold prices is expected to continue as the market has not yet identified a catalyst to restart an upward trend, although central bank purchases remain a key driver for gold price increases [4]. - The desire of central banks to reduce reliance on the US dollar as a reserve currency and mitigate risks associated with US sanctions is contributing to the ongoing dynamics in the gold market [4].