Group 1 - The core narrative of the current foreign exchange market has shifted from trade war concerns to fundamental macroeconomic drivers, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the center [1] - Market participants are closely examining the upcoming June FOMC meeting minutes to gauge the internal consensus on dovishness within the Federal Reserve [1][2] - If the minutes confirm a deeper dovish inclination, it would strengthen expectations for rate cuts in the summer, leading to downward pressure on the US dollar [2] Group 2 - The influence of tariff discussions from the Trump administration appears to be diminishing in the current foreign exchange market, with market participants interpreting these threats as negotiation tactics rather than a significant policy shift [2] - Tariffs may create asymmetric impacts in specific regions or asset classes, as seen with the recent surge in copper prices attributed to tariff expectations [2] - The EUR/USD currency pair is currently in a state of stagnation around 1.17, influenced by residual interest rate premiums and ongoing tariff uncertainties in the Eurozone [3] Group 3 - The foreign exchange market is characterized by a search for clarity, which is expected to come from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and upcoming CPI data [3] - The Japanese yen is perceived as vulnerable due to geopolitical and targeted tariff risks, while the Mexican peso may benefit indirectly from capital reallocation or safe-haven flows [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1362.546, down by 16.228 or 1.18% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1120.423, up by 4.285 or 0.38% [2] - Gold (COMEX GC) is priced at 3304.200, down by 6.800 or 0.21% [2] - Silver (COMEX SI) is priced at 36.615, down by 0.310 or 0.84% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to US Dollar (EURUSD) is at 1.171, down by 0.11% [3] - British Pound to US Dollar (GBPUSD) is at 1.359, up by 0.01% [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USDJPY) is at 146.488, down by 0.05% [3] - Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUDUSD) is at 0.654, up by 0.11% [3] - US Dollar to Swiss Franc (USDCHF) is at 0.795, down by 0.06% [3] Group 3: Virtual Currency - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 109443.990, up by 521.010 or 0.48% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 88.790, up by 1.030 or 1.17% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2664.260, up by 49.010 or 1.87% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.375, up by 0.064 or 2.77% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is 3.876, down by 0.033 or 0.84% [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is 3.953, down by 0.034 or 0.85% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is 4.386, down by 0.030 or 0.68% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is 4.916, down by 0.030 or 0.61% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.610, down by 0.024 or 0.52% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.632, down by 0.012 or 0.45% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.355, down by 0.005 or 0.15% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.548, down by 0.013 or 0.37% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.513, up by 0.027 or 1.82% [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Bank Negara Malaysia has cut the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points from 3% to 2.75%, marking the first rate adjustment in two years and the first rate cut in five years [1] - The central bank's statement indicates that global economic growth continues, supported by consumer spending and some degree of consumer credit, despite uncertainties from global tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][6] - The article highlights that while domestic demand and export growth are expected to support economic activity in Malaysia, the risks to the growth outlook remain tilted to the downside due to global trade slowdown and weak market sentiment [4] Group 2 - Malaysia's inflation rates for the first five months of the year averaged 1.4% for overall inflation and 1.9% for core inflation, with expectations for moderate inflation through 2025 due to controlled global cost conditions and limited domestic demand pressures [4] - The performance of the Malaysian Ringgit will continue to be driven by external factors, with the country's strong economic outlook and structural reforms providing lasting support for the currency [5] - The central bank emphasizes that the rate cut is a preemptive measure aimed at maintaining stable growth in Malaysia amidst external uncertainties, despite a solid domestic economic foundation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various currency pairs, highlighting the performance of the US dollar against other currencies on July 8th, with specific focus on the dollar's strength against the Japanese yen and other currencies [1]. Currency Performance Summary - The US dollar rose by 0.34% against the Japanese yen, reaching 146.55 yen, with a trading range of 145.83 to 146.98 yen during the day [1]. - The euro appreciated by 0.16% against the US dollar, while the British pound decreased by 0.08% against the dollar [1]. - The Swiss franc saw a decline of 0.32% against the US dollar [1]. - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar increased by 0.60% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.07%, while the Canadian dollar fell by 0.14% against the US dollar [1]. - The Swedish krona appreciated by 0.18% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone increased by 0.42% [1]. - The Danish krone rose by 0.15% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty appreciated by 0.31% against the US dollar [1].

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has increased by 12 points, currently standing at 97.75 [1] - The GBP/USD pair has experienced a decline of 0.5% during the day, with the current rate at 1.3531 [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1376.506, showing an increase of 7.008 or 0.51% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1118.302, with a rise of 4.240 or 0.38% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is trading at 3345.600, down by 0.800 or 0.02% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is at 36.950, slightly up by 0.010 or 0.03% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.174, increasing by 0.30% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.363, up by 0.20% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 146.111, with a slight increase of 0.03% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.651, rising by 0.33% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.797, decreasing by 0.16% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin is priced at 107880.120, down by 382.820 or 0.35% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is at 85.760, decreasing by 0.290 or 0.34% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is trading at 2531.090, down by 11.200 or 0.44% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is at 2.257, decreasing by 0.014 or 0.61% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is at 3.893 [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is at 3.960, down by 0.006 or 0.15% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is at 4.388, decreasing by 0.007 or 0.16% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is at 4.917, down by 0.013 or 0.26% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.577, decreasing by 0.014 or 0.30% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.606, increasing by 0.040 or 1.54% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.321, up by 0.042 or 1.28% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is at 3.517, increasing by 0.045 or 1.30% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is at 1.476, up by 0.011 or 0.75% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market has experienced a significant reshuffling, driven by a notable recovery in market risk appetite, as the US dollar continues its weak performance in 2025, with a cumulative decline of approximately 10% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973 [1][2]. Group 1: US Dollar Performance - The US dollar index closed at 97.04 on July 4, 2025, with a decline of 0.08%, remaining at near historical lows [1]. - The labor market showed resilience with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added in June, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, and the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [1]. - Goldman Sachs now anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, earlier than the previously expected December, adding pressure on the dollar [1]. Group 2: Performance of Non-USD Currencies - The euro traded around 1.17 against the dollar, closing at 1.1766 with a gain of 0.11%, supported by rising inflation in the Eurozone reaching the European Central Bank's target of 2% [2]. - The Chinese yuan showed relative stability, with the midpoint rate fluctuating within a reasonable range, reflecting the People's Bank of China's efforts to maintain adequate liquidity [2]. - The British pound remained relatively high despite some fluctuations, indicating cautious optimism regarding the UK economy [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment Changes - A significant easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, has reduced market risk aversion, impacting demand for traditional safe-haven currencies like the dollar and yen [2]. - The Japanese yen's performance is mixed, facing pressure from reduced safe-haven demand while also being supported by expectations of potential adjustments to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy [3]. - The return of a "risk-on" mode has led to a general rise in stock markets and positively influenced the foreign exchange market, with commodity currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars showing notable performance [3].

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to multiple factors, including domestic economic recovery and macroeconomic policies, with expectations for continued stability and potential mild appreciation in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - As of July 4, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 7.1643, an increase of 58 basis points from the previous close [1]. - In the first half of the year, the onshore and offshore RMB to USD exchange rates rose by 1.82% and 2.45%, respectively [1]. - The RMB to USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 298 basis points in the first half of the year [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting RMB Resilience - The decline of the US dollar index by 10.79% in the first half of the year contributed to the strengthening of the RMB [2]. - Domestic policies aimed at counter-cyclical adjustments provided significant support for the RMB exchange rate [2]. - The narrowing gap between onshore, offshore, and central parity rates indicates a potential convergence of these rates, suggesting a more stable exchange environment [2]. Group 3: Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - Experts predict that the RMB may experience mild appreciation due to favorable external and internal factors [2]. - Continued domestic growth policies are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing the exchange rate [2]. - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the foreign exchange market, including the introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures trading, which may further support the RMB's stability [3]. Group 4: Market Resilience and Risk Management - The maturity and rationality of market participants have improved, with the proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging rising to around 30% [3]. - The ability to manage exchange rate fluctuations has significantly increased, bolstering confidence in maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate [3].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing mixed movements, with the euro underperforming against the dollar while the British pound continues to rise. The market is closely watching upcoming U.S. employment data for further direction. Currency Movements - The euro to dollar exchange rate has been low, trading around 1.1800 [1] - The British pound has increased for four consecutive days, trading above 1.3700 [1] - The dollar to yen has rebounded to around 144.00, following the dollar's overall rebound [1] - Australia's trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in May, putting pressure on the Australian dollar, which is trading below 0.6600 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is trading positively around 0.6050 [1] - The dollar to Canadian dollar is in negative territory, close to 1.3585 [1] Employment and Interest Rate Outlook - The ADP employment numbers have turned negative for the first time in over two years, leading to market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2] - A majority of strategists in a Reuters survey expect the dollar positions to remain stable or see an increase in net shorts by the end of July [6] Central Bank Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering a supportive policy stance, with some members indicating no urgency to lower rates [10][11] - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member suggests five rate cuts may be needed by 2025 [9] - The Bank of Japan is contemplating further adjustments to its monetary easing if positive corporate behavior is confirmed [11] Technical Analysis - The euro/dollar pair is in a correction phase after nine consecutive days of increases, with limited downside potential [14] - The dollar/yen is testing key support levels, with critical support identified at 141.500 [15] - The Australian dollar may be forming a "evening star" pattern, indicating a potential reversal and deeper correction if it breaks below 0.6550 [15] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates, which are expected to influence market sentiment [16]

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（7月3日） 其它： 3. 韩国总统李在明：无法确定是否能在7月8日前完成与美国的关税谈判。双方在谈判中并不真正清楚各 自的具体诉求。 美元： 5. 特朗普称鲍威尔应立即辞职，并援引美国联邦住房金融署（FHFA）署长有关国会应调查鲍威尔的报 道。 6. 路透调查：52位策略师中有42位表示，到7月底美元仓位预计将保持稳定，或净空头将增加。 主要非美货币： 1. 路透调查：预计欧元兑美元六个月后为1.18，一年后为1.20（6月调查时分别为1.15和1.18）。 6. 日本央行审议委员高田创：如果能够确认企业的积极行为得以持续，日本央行应继续进一步调整货币 宽松程度。 4. 路透调查：11位经济学家中有10位预计以色列央行将在周一维持基准利率在4.5%不变，其中一位预 期将降息25个基点至4.25%。 欧元/美元 1. ADP就业人数两年多来首次"转负"，利率期货几乎完全定价美联储9月降息。 2. 贝森特：美联储可能在9月或更早降息。 3. 美联储巴尔金：目前没有改变政策的紧迫性。 4. 美国联邦住房金融署（FHFA）呼吁国会调查美联储主席鲍威尔。 2. 英国首相斯塔默：里 ...