2025 年 06 月 30 日 国际关系动态报告 国际关系研究报告 证券研究报告 国金政策与战略组 分析师：杨佳妮（执业 S1130524040002） yangjiani@gjzq.com.cn 联系人：商景皓 shangjinghao@gjzq.com.cn 国金地缘政治周观察｜当前美国和各个国家贸易谈判进展 核心观点 地缘动向复盘：本周聚焦美国贸易谈判。美欧谈判方面，6 月 25 日北约峰会在荷兰海牙落幕，6 月 26 日欧盟在比 利时布鲁塞尔举行峰会，对美贸易谈判是峰会焦点之一。中美方面，6 月 27 日，中美贸易博弈迎来重大转折。卢特 尼克称美国已经与中国签署协议，中国商务部也表示双方进一步确认了框架细节。 国金观点周观察： （1）整体来看，美方对达成协议的急切程度高于其谈判对手，我们做出判断的原因主要基于三点：一是 7 月 9 日 谈判截止日即将到来，目前美国与主要国家的谈判仍无实质性进展。二是特朗普目前面临着经济与政治的压力，关 税问题若迟迟得不到解决，这将限制特朗普对其他问题的解决。三是 7 月 4 日为美国"独立日"，特朗普计划在此特 殊日期前后宣布一批政治成果，以达到政治宣传的效果。特朗 ...

Group 1 - The EU's recent diplomatic actions against China, including pressure tactics at the G7 summit, have been ineffective and ridiculed internationally [1][3] - The EU's accusations against China regarding rare earth policies are undermined by its own dependency on Chinese supplies, which control 90% of global rare earth permanent magnet materials [3][4] - The EU's strategic dilemma is highlighted by its contradictory approach of applying pressure while simultaneously seeking concessions from China [4][9] Group 2 - NATO Secretary General's comments linking Taiwan issues with Russia have been criticized as illogical and indicative of a divided European stance [6][9] - China's response to the EU's pressure has been strategic and measured, focusing on diplomatic engagement rather than public confrontation [7][10] - The EU's reliance on the US for strategic direction has led to a loss of autonomy, making it difficult for the EU to act independently in international affairs [9][12] Group 3 - China's proposed solutions emphasize mutual respect, partnership, and multilateralism, addressing the EU's cognitive dissonance in its foreign policy [10][12] - The ongoing struggle within the EU regarding its identity in a multipolar world raises questions about its future role, whether as a US ally or an independent entity [12]

Group 1 - The EU's internal attitude towards China is undergoing a complex evolution, reflecting a desire for independence while struggling with dependence on the US [2] - The upcoming visit of China's Foreign Minister to key EU countries aims to gauge the EU's stance and reveal the disillusionment with Trump's policies [4] - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's relationship with Trump exemplifies the EU's contradictory dependence on the US, highlighting a blind allegiance among certain European factions [6] Group 2 - EU's concerns over China's rare earth exports are evident, with the EU Ambassador pleading for understanding of European companies' fears regarding supply shortages [6] - The EU's expectation for China to relax rare earth controls reflects a deep-seated sense of superiority and distrust towards China [8] - China's call for mutual respect and partnership with the EU serves as a warning against the EU's continuous challenges to China's red lines [8][9] Group 3 - The EU's strategic autonomy remains fragile, as evidenced by the actions of leaders like von der Leyen and Stoltenberg, who attempt to balance relations between China and the US [9] - The EU's strategy of trying to appease the US at the expense of China is unlikely to succeed, as China views this approach as unviable [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics of US-India relations, highlighting the contradictions in US policies and India's strategic responses amidst rising tensions and tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods. Group 1: US-India Relations - The relationship between the US and India has fluctuated significantly over the past two decades, with varying degrees of cooperation and tension under different administrations [3] - Trump's administration has shifted focus from democratic values to defense contracts and anti-China alliances, leading to a breakdown in strategic trust between the two nations [3][5] - The imposition of tariffs by the US, while simultaneously offering aid to Pakistan, has angered India and raised questions about the reliability of the US as an ally [1][3] Group 2: India's Strategic Maneuvers - India is leveraging its position by seeking technology exchanges in sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy, while also accelerating free trade agreements with the EU to mitigate risks [5] - The Indian government is focusing on domestic manufacturing, particularly in the wake of reduced tariffs, to strengthen its economic independence [5] - India's military procurement decisions, such as signing submarine deals with France instead of the US, signal a desire for strategic autonomy and a balanced approach in international relations [5][7] Group 3: Broader Implications - The article suggests that the current US-India tensions reveal the underlying truth of Western alliances: they are driven by interests rather than enduring friendships [7] - As India continues to navigate its foreign policy, it may increasingly diversify its partnerships, potentially aligning more with Russia, the Middle East, and even China, while managing its relationship with the US [7] - The evolving dynamics may ultimately lead India to reduce its dependency on Western powers, a shift that could reshape regional geopolitics in the coming decade [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by a German entrepreneur, Yecker, in hiring engineers from China due to visa issues, which may be influenced by political factors, potentially hindering economic opportunities in Germany [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Implications - Yecker's attempt to hire four Chinese engineers is seen as a missed opportunity for Germany to develop a renewable energy company that could contribute to tax revenue and job creation [1]. - The current economic situation in Germany, coupled with the government's focus on economic development, makes the inability to hire these engineers particularly regrettable [1]. Group 2: Political Context - The visa issues may stem from bureaucratic inefficiencies or the rise of far-right sentiments and anti-immigrant attitudes in Germany [2]. - There is speculation that the German authorities may be setting obstacles in visa applications to align with the "de-risking" narrative regarding China, although this remains unproven [2]. Group 3: EU-China Relations - Despite recent positive statements from the EU and its member states about improving relations with China, practical issues like visa applications have not seen significant improvement [2]. - The article emphasizes the need for the EU to translate positive rhetoric into concrete actions to facilitate exchanges with China [2]. Group 4: Strategic Autonomy - The article highlights the growing recognition in Europe of the importance of strategic autonomy, especially in light of external pressures such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. economic influence [3]. - There is a call for the EU to adopt a more pragmatic approach towards China, moving away from politicizing economic and cultural exchanges [3][4]. Group 5: Cooperation Potential - The article notes that China views Europe as a key partner and supports European integration, emphasizing mutual benefits in trade and cooperation [3][4]. - The economic relationship between China and Europe is significant, with their combined economic output exceeding one-third of the global total and trade accounting for over a quarter of global trade [4].

这时，关键的转折点来了！根据内部消息，这笔飞机订单是否能够成行，关键在于欧洲敢不敢做出选 择：是要中国提供的真金白银？还是继续做美国的"提线木偶"？ 中国的这手双线操作更是绝妙。一方面，它给欧洲递出了橄榄枝；另一方面，它又对波音采取了宽容态 度，显然是在给美国施压：你看，我随时可以换家航空公司！然而，美国商务部却迅速反应，禁止了半 导体设计软件的出口，出尔反尔的速度，简直比川剧变脸还要快！ 家人们，原本大家都以为中美的关税战可能会逐渐平息，但就在此时，突然传来一个震撼消息——中国 可能要花大价钱购买几百架空客飞机！这背后究竟隐藏了怎样的玄机呢？让我们慢慢揭开这层迷雾。 首先，给大家抛出一个猛料：你知道吗？就在欧洲领导人准备前来中国庆祝中欧建交50周年的关键时 刻，这笔价值上千亿的大单竟可能成为他们见面的"见面礼"！然而，令人疑惑的是，刚传出这个消息， 紧接着中国就解除了对美国波音飞机的禁令。这一手看似左右开弓的操作，背后到底有什么深意呢？ 说起这笔交易，那可是波涛汹涌的背后有着复杂的暗流。如今美国依旧手握关税大棒，不停地对外挥 舞，而欧盟虽然表面上看似硬气，但心里其实相当不安。中国在这个时刻突然抛出空客订单， ...

欧洲各国政府正为与美国总统特朗普的高风险谈判做准备，这些谈判将把欧洲大陆的防务、经济和安全 置于严峻考验之中。 随着官员们努力在未来五周围绕乌克兰、跨大西洋贸易以及美国对北约的承诺进行关键谈判，以维持特 朗普的支持，建立"独立欧洲"的宏伟计划已被搁置。欧洲谈判代表越来越担心，特朗普将要求欧盟在一 个领域做出让步，以换取在另一个领域的支持，从而迫使欧盟牺牲其核心价值观或接受与华盛顿的彻底 决裂。 欧盟前首席外交官约瑟夫·博雷利（Josep Borrell）在去年11月卸任时表示："所有这些危机同时爆发，这 是一场完美风暴。他（特朗普）可能会试图挤压我们，并可能从这三个方向将我们逼入绝境。可能会告 诉我们：'如果你不给我一个好的贸易协议，那么我们将不支持乌克兰。'或者，'如果你逼我支持乌克 兰，那么我们将增加（我们要求你增加）你在北约的军事开支'。" 欧盟高级官员已讨论了这三个方面的最坏情况。其中包括美国完全暂停对乌克兰的支持，切断情报并阻 止欧洲国家提供美国购买的武器、一场对经济增长造成严重后果的全面贸易战、以及美国军队和军事能 力迅速撤出欧洲。 一位欧盟高级外交官表示，"我们认为（乌克兰、欧洲防务和贸易）是独 ...

Core Viewpoint - French President Macron calls for a new alliance between Asian countries and Europe to enhance trade, dialogue, and cooperation in defense and security, aiming to create a stable environment and uphold a rules-based international order [3][4] Group 1: Macron's Speech Highlights - Macron emphasizes the need for Europe and France to defend territorial integrity and sovereignty in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine issue, warning that failure to resolve these conflicts could damage their credibility in the Asia-Pacific region [4][5] - He identifies division as a major risk facing the international community, stating that countries forced to "choose sides" due to great power competition could undermine global order and international cooperation mechanisms established post-World War II [4][5] - Macron reiterates the importance of "strategic autonomy" for both Europe and Asia, advocating for a new positive alliance based on shared norms and principles to prevent countries from becoming collateral damage in superpower conflicts [5][6] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The concept of "providing a third way" is a recurring theme in Macron's visit, linking it to France's Indo-Pacific strategy, which aims to maintain an open environment and order in the region [6][7] - Macron asserts that France is a participant in the Indo-Pacific region and emphasizes the need for cooperation with countries like India and ASEAN, while also acknowledging the necessity of building new cooperative frameworks [6][7] - He stresses that the current divide between the U.S. and China represents a significant risk, advocating for a new alliance between Paris and Indo-Pacific partners to ensure that nations do not become victims of superpower choices [6][7]

近期，德国默茨政府在外交上很"活跃"， 称德国及其盟友向乌克兰提供的武器已不再限制射程，德国或将反击美国关税政策等等。怎么看待德国新政府外 交上的特点？这对当前地区热点会产生什么影响？ 德国试图重塑传统大西洋盟友关系格局 中国国际问题研究院全球治理与国际组织研究所所长 金玲：默茨政府上台后，在一系列重大外交问题上展现出较为强势的立场。在我看来，这是新政府希 望对外彰显领导力与行动力，推动欧洲实现更大战略自主的信号。由此不难看出，德国未来的外交有几个较为明确的方向。德国近期外交政策举措背后有多 重意图。首先，在重塑大西洋关系方面，德国与法国在战略自主观念上日益接近，寻求对美国更大的独立性。特朗普第二任期以来，在乌克兰问题、关税问 题等方面采取的一系列举措，重塑了德国人对美国的认知。即便默茨是传统大西洋主义者，但他也明确表示，面对美国总统特朗普的"美国优先"单边主义， 德国与欧盟战后的"双人舞"必须结束，呼吁从华盛顿独立。这意味着，无论是在安全还是经贸领域，德国都在试图重新定义传统的大西洋关系。 德国意在欧盟内部重新树立"领头羊"形象 德国战略政策调整一定程度上平衡美欧关系 责编：黄之安、侯兴川 中国国际问题研究 ...

Core Points - The German government aims to build the Bundeswehr into the strongest conventional army in Europe while revitalizing the economy, which are seen as interconnected goals [3][4] - Chancellor Merz emphasizes the need for Germany to take on more responsibility in NATO and the EU, signaling a strong return of Germany in European security and defense [4][6] - The government plans to provide necessary financial resources to the Bundeswehr, marking a significant shift in Germany's defense policy [4][7] Defense Strategy - The new government has committed to a defense budget of approximately €150 billion over its term, focusing on modernizing military capabilities and infrastructure [8] - Germany is expected to adopt a "high-tech" military approach, enhancing defense mobilization, military industry, and equipment procurement [8] - The government has established a special defense fund of €100 billion to support military modernization efforts [7] Economic Context - Germany faces challenges such as outdated military equipment and organizational inefficiencies, complicating the rapid enhancement of military capabilities [9] - Economic pressures, including inflation and a potential recession, may hinder the government's ability to significantly increase defense spending [9] - The country is projected to experience a tax revenue shortfall of €81.2 billion from 2025 to 2029, with a deficit of over €33 billion anticipated in 2025 [9] Strategic Autonomy - The push for a stronger military presence reflects a broader strategic shift in Europe, as Germany seeks to enhance its role in European defense and security [6][9] - The EU's lack of a unified security decision-making mechanism poses challenges for Germany's defense ambitions [9] - Despite efforts to reduce dependence on the U.S., Germany remains constrained by its military and economic ties to the U.S. [9]