Group 1: Business Opportunities in the U.S. - The U.S. market is characterized by a win-win business culture, where companies can compete based on differentiation rather than price alone, leading to a safer environment for entrepreneurs and acquirers alike [4][5][18] - The U.S. market has significant profit margins, allowing Chinese products to have a competitive advantage in terms of pricing [7][16] - Businesses in the U.S. must innovate or create entirely new categories to succeed, as competing solely on price leads to a prisoner’s dilemma with no winners [8][10] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The retail landscape in the U.S. is shifting towards a combination of online and offline experiences, with companies like Walmart and Costco adapting to consumer preferences for convenience [12][13] - The U.S. consumer market is robust, with strong purchasing power that supports business profitability [16] - The coffee market in the U.S. is dominated by a few key players, illustrating a stark contrast to the more fragmented tea market in China [21] Group 3: Comparative Analysis of China and the U.S. - In 2024, China is projected to sell approximately 13 million electric vehicles, significantly outpacing the U.S. with only 1.6 million [22][23] - The income growth for low-income households in China is around 6%, contrasting with the stagnation of income for many Americans [25] - The U.S. has implemented trade protection policies historically, which have affected various industries, including steel and automobiles [23][30] Group 4: Structural Challenges and Opportunities - The U.S.-China relationship has evolved into one of strategic competition, with both countries viewing each other as significant rivals [28][30] - Despite the challenges, there are still investment opportunities in non-sensitive sectors such as real estate, retail, and healthcare for Chinese businesses in the U.S. [36][37] - The intertwining of U.S. and Chinese economies suggests that complete decoupling is unlikely, as both nations remain important trade partners [32][34] Group 5: Conclusion and Strategic Insights - The U.S. market offers unique opportunities for Chinese companies, particularly in non-sensitive areas, emphasizing the need for differentiation and local market understanding [38] - Companies that can quickly adapt and identify market gaps will be better positioned to succeed in the evolving landscape [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. For example, gold is expected to move up in a volatile manner, while silver is predicted to break through and rise. Copper prices are under pressure due to weakening spot markets, and zinc is bearish in the medium - term [2][8][12]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner with a trend intensity of 1. Yesterday, Comex gold 2510 rose 1.12% to 3370.30, and London gold spot rose 0.95% to 3355.37 [2][7][8]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise with a trend intensity of 1. Comex silver 2510 soared 3.85% [2][7][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Spot weakness is pressuring prices. Trump's potential expansion of 50% copper tariffs to semi - finished products may impact the US grid and data center construction. The trend intensity is 0 [2][12][14]. - **Zinc**: Bearish in the medium - term with a trend intensity of - 1. The prices of both domestic and international zinc futures declined slightly, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons [2][15][16]. - **Lead**: Supported by peak - season expectations. The trend intensity is 0. LME lead inventory decreased by 3000 tons [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening. Although the prices of the main contracts of domestic and international tin futures rose slightly, the trend intensity is 0 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and a high virtual - to - physical ratio. The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is accumulating marginally. The trend intensity is 0. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are fluctuating. The trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it shows a strong - side volatile trend. The trend intensity is 0. The price of imported ore such as Carajás fines (65%) rose slightly [2][41]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, it shows a strong - side volatile trend with a trend intensity of 1. The price of JM2509 rose 1.78% [2][55][57]. - **Coke**: A round of price increases has started, and it shows a strong - side volatile trend. The trend intensity is 0. The price of J2509 rose 1.50% [2][55][57]. - **Power Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing with a volatile trend. The trend intensity is 0 [2][58][60]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The fundamental situation is an oversupply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse - receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [2][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to supply - side changes. The trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying market fluctuations. The trend intensity is 0 [2][38][40]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about the复产 in the origin, and the market is driven up by macro - sentiment [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is bearish, and the weather is favorable, so it may show a weak - side volatile trend [2][5].

Group 1 - The third Chain Expo is set to take place in July, with a strong call for participation from American businesses, highlighting the event's significance amid global trade uncertainties [1] - The Chain Expo aims to address supply chain risks and enhance resilience through deep integration of global supply chains, promoting a collaborative development model [2][3] - The event will feature six major supply chains, including advanced manufacturing, clean energy, and digital technology, emphasizing international cooperation and new business models [2] Group 2 - The Chain Expo has become a crucial platform for businesses to connect and collaborate, with significant participation from ASEAN countries, indicating a focus on building a stable regional supply chain [4] - Since its inception, the Chain Expo has facilitated hundreds of cooperation agreements worth over 300 billion, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing business visibility and generating growth [4] - The upcoming expo will showcase innovative products and technologies, reinforcing the importance of open collaboration in driving industry trends and development [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - China's strategic dominance in the rare earth and critical minerals sector is resilient and not easily undermined by export controls or attempts from other countries to diversify supply chains [1][6]. Group 1: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China accounts for approximately 60% of global production of critical minerals and over 85% of refining capacity [1]. - The country produces 40% of the world's refined copper, 70% of refined cobalt, over 60% of lithium, and 99% of battery-grade graphite [1]. - China controls 87% of the global permanent magnet market, with rare earths being a core component [1]. Group 2: Global Supply Chain Dependencies - The US Geological Survey (USGS) indicates that the US relies entirely on imports for 12 critical minerals and has over 50% import dependence for 29 minerals [2]. - China supplies 72% of the US's annual demand for critical minerals, followed by Malaysia (11%) and Japan (6%) [2]. Group 3: Strategic Investments and Education - China has established and funded multiple national-level rare earth laboratories and specialized courses in universities, leading to a strong educational foundation in mining technology [2]. - The country holds the most mining technology patents globally, showcasing its technological leadership [2]. Group 4: Historical Context and Market Impact - The 2010 export ban on rare earths to Japan resulted in a price surge of over 5 times, highlighting China's significant influence on the supply chain [4]. - Despite global efforts to diversify supply chains post-pandemic, China's economies of scale and resource allocation make alternatives challenging for other nations [4]. Group 5: India's Response and Challenges - India is attempting to reduce its supply chain vulnerabilities through the "National Critical Minerals Mission" (NCMM) and aims to engage the private sector in exploration and mining [5]. - The country seeks to build resilient supply chains through platforms like the "Quad," but complete detachment from China is deemed unrealistic and requires long-term efforts [5]. Group 6: Long-term Strategic Considerations - China's dominance in rare earths is a product of long-term strategic planning, supported by government initiatives, advanced processing technologies, and top-tier educational institutions [5]. - Analysts suggest that while China's position is currently strong, it must remain vigilant and invest in foundational research and talent development to mitigate long-term risks [6].