方正证券发布研报称，本周第113届秋季糖酒会在南京召开。当前白酒板块经历长期回调，估值已显著 回落，市场预期处于低位，优质资产底部逻辑清晰。在外部扰动重新显现，催动内需重要性提升的背景 下，板块有望迎来估值切换与修复行情。 方正证券主要观点如下： 白酒：反馈平淡，预期低位，期待后续政策落地后经济恢复 秋糖招商功能弱化，整体氛围平淡，产业预期维持较低水平。走访秋糖展会观察到，本次秋季糖酒会整 体氛围较为平淡，预计参展商总数4000+，与去年深圳秋糖基本持平，在全国名酒渠道布局趋于成熟， 行业整体进入缩量增长的情况下，糖酒会招商功能有所弱化，电商供应链、大众带开发品等经销商布展 招商较为积极，头部企业参展较少。渠道反馈而言，中秋国庆双节旺季以来动销整体仍较为平淡，基本 面边际变化较少，消费需求及经营层面兑现仍需要时间。 双节以来动销维持平淡中分化，高端酒价格略有下滑。基本面角度看，该行认为中秋国庆双节拉动动销 预计仍有下滑，节后回归阶段性淡季销售。从动销反馈而言品牌仍存分化趋势，高端酒中茅台、五粮液 （000858）整体经营情况较为稳定。渠道信心存在分歧，结合双节前后及糖酒会调研，当前行业底部特 征基本明确，在宏 ...

气温骤降，沈阳市和平区八经咖啡小巷香气氤氲，一杯杯热腾腾的咖啡给游客带来温暖。 在这条小巷，一座座古朴的历史建筑间散落着众多咖啡馆，历史与现代、传统与创新在此和合共 生。一个巨大的绿色咖啡杯雕塑，成为热门"打卡地"，吸引众多游客拍照留念。"来沈阳先吃烧烤，再 去洗浴中心，最后到咖啡小巷打个卡，这一天非常完美。"上海网友小妮妮很喜欢咖啡小巷的场景设 计。 咖啡的香气还"飘"进了更多场景，青年创业说、电影时光等"咖啡+"活动链接多种业态，为消费者 带来全新体验。近两年，咖啡小巷年游客到访量达200万人次，营业总流水已超过2亿元。 八经咖啡小巷的消费新场景，是观察辽宁经济韧性和消费活力的一个窗口。"十四五"期间，全省消 费市场从"量的扩张"向"质的提升"深度转型。各地创新消费供给的新故事，彰显辽宁扩大内需、提振消 费的不懈努力。 习近平总书记强调，"内需是中国经济发展的基本动力，也是满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要的 必然要求""要增强消费能力，改善消费条件，创新消费场景，使消费潜力充分释放出来"。 刚刚过去的"十一"假期，辽宁消费表现火热。全省以"乐购辽宁 惠享美好"为主题，组织重点商贸 流通企业开展300余场促消 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry: Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Emerging Channels and Consumer Trends** The live streaming phenomenon at the Nanjing Sugar and Wine Fair highlights the penetration of new channels like instant retail in the baijiu industry. The popularity of light bottle liquor priced under 100 yuan indicates robust consumer spending and a trend towards consumption upgrades [1][3]. 2. **Performance During Mid-Autumn and National Day** The baijiu industry performed slightly better than expected during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays. Notably, the sales of Yanghe Jinshuiyuan exceeded company expectations, with significant year-on-year growth in sales volume and banquet sessions. However, the overall banquet sales growth was modest due to a decline in the number of bottles opened per banquet [4][5]. 3. **Consensus on Industry Bottoming** There is an increasing consensus that the baijiu industry has reached its bottom, but expectations for recovery remain cautious. Demand is currently affected by alcohol bans and economic downturns, while supply is entering a destocking phase. Moutai's prices have stabilized, and distributor inventories are low [6]. 4. **Price Trends and Distributor Conditions** Moutai's post-holiday prices exceeded expectations, with stable original box prices around 1,780 yuan. Distributors' inventory levels are healthy, with a turnover rate of about one month. In contrast, Wuliangye faces price inversion and subsidy pressures, leading to a challenging situation for both Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [7][8]. 5. **Projected Performance for Q3 2025** For Q3 2025, Moutai is expected to maintain mid-to-high single-digit growth, while Wuliangye may see double-digit revenue growth but with larger profit margins. Luzhou Laojiao is also projected to achieve double-digit growth in both revenue and profit, while Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu are expected to decline significantly [9][10]. 6. **Future Outlook and Recommendations** The baijiu industry is currently at a fundamental bottom, with a potential adjustment period from Q2 to Q1 of the following year. The valuation appears attractive. Recommended stocks include leading brands like Moutai, Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jiansu Yuer, as well as dividend-paying companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe. Attention is also drawn to flexible stocks like Zhenjiu Lidu [10][11]. Industry: Beverage Key Points and Arguments 1. **Steady Growth in Beverage Sector** The beverage industry is experiencing steady growth in Q3 2025, with standout performances from tea drinks, traditional health waters, electrolyte waters, and coconut water. Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Special Drink are seeing rapid revenue growth, with profit margins expected to improve [2][12]. 2. **Differentiated Performance of Major Brands** In Q3 2025, Master Kong benefited from price increases, while Uni-President faced challenges due to delivery subsidies. Master Kong's instant noodle business returned to low single-digit growth, while its beverage segment experienced a mid-single-digit decline [13][14]. 3. **Emerging Categories and Competitive Landscape** New categories such as tea drinks and health-oriented beverages are showing significant potential for growth. The competitive landscape is intensifying due to declining raw material prices and increased subsidies from delivery platforms [12][16]. 4. **Long-term Growth Potential** Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Special Drink are recommended for their strong brand power and growth potential, with expectations for continued performance above industry averages in the coming years [15]. Industry: Dairy Products Key Points and Arguments 1. **Dairy Sector Challenges** The dairy sector is facing a decline in supply and weak downstream demand. The number of dairy cows has decreased, while milk prices have risen slightly. Companies like Yili are expected to see modest revenue growth, while Mengniu may experience a decline due to previous high bases [18]. 2. **Market Dynamics and Future Outlook** The overall dairy market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with potential improvements in competition dynamics as raw milk prices balance out. Companies like New Dairy, Mengniu, and Yili are seen as having certain investment value [18]. Industry: Snack and Frozen Food Key Points and Arguments 1. **Snack Industry Performance** The snack industry is developing steadily, with franchisees favoring larger stores. Despite a slight decline in average transaction prices, new product categories are expected to drive growth. Companies like Wancheng are projected to achieve significant revenue growth [19][20]. 2. **Frozen Food Sector Trends** The frozen food sector is experiencing flat performance, with slight revenue growth but ongoing profit pressures. Companies like Anjijia and Qianwei Central Kitchen are seeing modest revenue increases, while others like Baobi are benefiting from lower pork costs [22][23]. 3. **Future Growth Expectations** The snack sector is anticipated to perform better in 2026, with cost pressures easing and new channel opportunities emerging. Companies are encouraged to adapt to market changes and explore new distribution channels [21]. Industry: Beer Key Points and Arguments 1. **Beer Industry Performance** The beer industry is facing moderate demand, with on-premise channels underperforming. However, off-premise channels are showing resilience, with moderate sales growth. Companies like China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer are expected to see slight revenue increases [24][25]. 2. **Cost and Profitability Trends** The cost of beer production is expected to stabilize, with key variables focusing on ASP (average selling price) increases and cost-saving measures. Companies with strong operational capabilities, such as China Resources Beer and Yanjing Beer, are recommended for investment [25][26].

策略周报 中国资产的"黄金时代" 策略周末谈（1019） 核心结论 1、冰火转换时刻将至：中国资产重启"黄金时代" 2018 年中国进入工业化成熟期，制造业全球竞争优势积累大量国民财富，驱动 居民消费升级，宁组合/茅指数等制造/消费类资产开启"核心资产牛"。2022-2024 年美联储加息导致跨境资本和国民财富外流，梗阻"核心资产牛"。当前美联储 重启降息，跨境资本和国民财富将加速回流，中国制造/消费类资产将重启"黄 金时代"。本周 A 股风格切换，或预示着制造/消费"冰火转换"时刻将至。 2、中国资产"黄金时代"的基础：制造业出口竞争优势 过去几年制造业高度"内卷"反而能夯实其全球竞争优势，扛住 2025 年关税冲 击，继续积累国民财富。制造业对外净出口规模扩张，带来人民币汇率长期升值。 当前美联储重启降息，也将强化人民币升值趋势，驱动大量的跨境资本+国民财 富回流，中国居民的消费能力和消费意愿将会修复。在制造业强劲的出口竞争优 势"保驾护航"下，中国优质的制造/消费类资产的"冰火转换"时刻将至。 3、中国资产"黄金时代"的路径：A 股盈利和现金流修复 A 股盈利底部修复阶段往往对应着出口扩张和消费升级。（ ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 19 Oct 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 短期回调空间初步释放，布局窗口逐步打开 Short-Term Pullback Largely Priced In, Entry Window Gradually Opening 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们提到，周初下跌将触发短期超跌反弹，然而，受中美元首会晤不确定性影响，10月市场仍大概率维持震 荡格局。行业方面，市场风格或逐步转向红利与低位蓝筹相对占优。本周中美贸易摩擦持续升温，市场情绪未能 一步到位释放，导致指数在反弹后反复受压，整体呈现高位震荡回落格局。全周来看，上证综指下跌2.5%，创业 板指下跌5.7%，周线回落至10日线附近；港股回调 ...

中式面点师参加比赛。主办方供图 互联网营销师作为新兴项目，直击直播电商核心。选手们在限定时间内完成从场景搭建、产品推介到互 动复盘的全流程，全面检验其数字营销实战能力。 新京报讯（记者陈琳）第十五届北京市商业服务业技能大赛市级决赛10月18日在北京劲松职业高中常营 校区举办，经过赛前充分筹备，近600名从万余名初赛参赛人员中历经复赛层层选拔的选手，围绕20个 竞赛项目展开激烈比拼。 本届大赛主办方阵容强大，由北京市商务局等五部门联合主办，北京市商业联合会等16家行业协会共同 承办。决赛现场，20个竞赛项目同步进入竞技环节，涵盖服务、技术、贸易等多个领域，既有延续行业 核心需求的经典项目，也有贴合数字经济与消费升级趋势的创新工种。 在中式面点师赛场，选手们不仅揉、捏、抻、卷技艺纯熟，更创新运用天然原料，打造出兼具国潮风韵 与国际审美的精致面点。评茶师项目则如同一场感官的精密实验，选手需精准评定茶品，并完成从产品 设计到市场定价的全链条考核。 北京市商业联合会会长傅跃红表示，大赛的核心目标是"以赛促学、以赛促练、以赛促建"，将其打造为 行业技艺切磋与人才培育的重要平台。 经过一天的激烈角逐，各项目优胜者脱颖而出。 ...

今年的20个竞赛项目涵盖服务、技术、贸易等多个领域，既包括延续行业核心需求的经典项目，也有贴合数字经济与消费升级趋势的创新工种。 以洗衣师项目为例，比赛设置了纯毛西服水洗后的平整工艺考核，并以不同布料混合污渍去除作为情景模拟，考验选手对洗涤、熨烫、保养技术的掌握。 现代服务业的互联网营销师项目直击直播电商核心岗位需求，选手们在理论考核后，于实操中在规定时间内完成直播场景搭建、产品展示、实时互动沟通， 并对直播销售案例进行深度复盘，全面检验数字营销技能，展现出较强的岗位适配能力。 裁判团队一致认为，本届大赛选手整体水平显著提升，赛事规模扩大、质量上乘，已成为北京商业服务业技能展示与人才选拔的重要品牌。作为已走过十五 个年头的行业赛事，北京市商业服务业技能大赛始终致力于推动商业服务业技能提升与人才培养，为北京国际消费中心城市建设与技能强市建设注入源源不 断的动力，未来将继续沿着"以赛促学、以赛促练、以赛促建"的目标，助力首都商业服务业高质量发展。 北京商报讯（记者 王维祎）近日，第十五届北京市商业服务业技能大赛市级决赛顺利收官。围绕20个竞赛项目，经过层层复赛选拔，近600名选手从万余名 初赛参赛者中脱颖而出，他 ...

Core Insights - The China-Europe Railway Express East Corridor has facilitated the import of 27.818 million tons of goods and 2,669 trains carrying 274,920 TEUs, injecting stable momentum into domestic and international supply chains [1] - The variety of imported goods, including iron ore, fertilizers, and automotive parts, has enhanced the quality of life for consumers and supported consumption upgrades in China [1] - The implementation of the "digital port" system at Manzhouli Station has improved the efficiency of cargo handling, providing 24/7 services to ensure quick processing of imported goods [1] Group 1 - The total volume of imported goods sent from Manzhouli Station has exceeded 16.25 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.75% [1] - The completion of the Jiatong Railway renovation has improved transportation capacity, with 954 "point-to-point" direct trains operated, accounting for 81.3% of all trains [1] - The ongoing expansion of the Tongjiang North Station is expected to increase cargo throughput by 40%, enhancing the variety of import and export goods [1] Group 2 - Suifenhe Station has optimized the classification and handling of imported goods, ensuring a smooth process for cargo arrival, unloading, and dispatch [2]

Core Insights - The report indicates that China's economy has passed its most difficult adjustment period and is entering a new phase characterized by structural optimization and demand-driven growth, rather than a traditional V-shaped recovery [2][30] - Key indicators such as core CPI returning to 1%, narrowing PPI-CPI gap, stabilization of the real estate market, and adjustments in the labor market signal this upward trend [2][30] Group 1: Core CPI and Consumer Demand - In September 2025, China's core CPI rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first time it exceeded 1% in 19 months, with a continuous increase over five months [3][5] - The CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.1% indicates a positive shift in price momentum, while the year-on-year decline of 0.3% shows a narrowing of the downward pressure [3][5] - The rise in core CPI reflects a recovery in domestic demand and enhanced consumer market dynamics [3][5] Group 2: PPI-CPI Gap and Economic Resilience - The narrowing of the PPI-CPI gap is a critical indicator of improved economic efficiency, driven by both supply and demand factors [8][9] - Supply-side policies have stabilized prices in key industries, while demand-side recovery has led to a continuous rise in core CPI [8][9] - The structural changes in the economy, including the decline in food prices, have also contributed to the narrowing of the gap [8][9] Group 3: Consumption Upgrade as an Economic Engine - The recovery in core CPI is fundamentally linked to the release of consumer potential, with a clear trend of structural upgrades in consumption rather than a broad rebound [13][15] - Policies such as the "old-for-new" consumption initiative have significantly boosted retail sales in various sectors, indicating a robust market response [15][20] - The shift from survival-oriented consumption to development-oriented consumption is evident, with a decrease in the Engel coefficient from 33% in 2012 to 29.8% in 2024 [16][27] Group 4: Real Estate and Employment Market Stabilization - The real estate market is showing signs of bottoming out, with a significant reduction in the year-on-year decline of new home sales in early 2025 [17][18] - The employment market is also stabilizing, with the urban unemployment rate declining from its peak earlier in the year, indicating a search for new equilibrium [18][19] - Structural adjustments in the labor market are evident, with policies aimed at supporting employment for key demographics [19][20] Group 5: Macroeconomic Policy Effectiveness - China's proactive macroeconomic policies in 2025, including fiscal and monetary measures, have effectively supported economic stability and growth [20][21] - The implementation of the "old-for-new" policy has been enhanced by significant financial support, reflecting a strategic approach to stimulate consumption [20][21] - Future policy directions will focus on sustaining internal demand and fostering innovation, with an emphasis on coordinated macroeconomic policies [22][27]

Core Insights - Shenzhen is rapidly emerging as a new coffee capital in China, driven by a unique blend of speed and innovation in its coffee culture [1][2][20] - The city boasts the highest density of coffee shops in the country, with 16.7 coffee shops per square kilometer in the central district [1][2] - The coffee industry in Shenzhen is characterized by a diverse range of brands, from local startups to international giants like Starbucks, indicating a robust market [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Shenzhen has 9,926 coffee-related enterprises, the highest in the nation, and a coffee shop density of 2.23 per square kilometer in core urban areas [2][3] - Local brands such as Gee Coffee Roasters and KUDDO Coffee are gaining traction alongside established international brands, showcasing a competitive landscape [2][3] - The coffee consumption journey in Shenzhen has evolved rapidly over the past 30 years, transitioning from instant coffee to specialty brews [3][4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The city's coffee culture emphasizes quick experiences, with long queues at grab-and-go coffee windows and events like coffee festivals attracting significant participation [3][4] - A notable 82.5% of consumers in Shenzhen drink coffee primarily for its energizing effects, indicating a strong demand for functional beverages [9] - The average age of coffee consumers in Shenzhen is 32.5 years, with a significant portion of the population being young professionals [12][19] Group 3: Innovation and Technology - Shenzhen's coffee industry is marked by innovation, with local brands exploring unique flavors and brewing techniques, such as the introduction of "fruit coffee" and "rotary steaming" technology [5][6] - The city is also becoming a hub for coffee equipment manufacturing, with local companies developing coffee machines and robots that enhance the consumer experience [7][8] - Starbucks has established its China Innovation Technology Center in Shenzhen, focusing on digital innovation and enhancing customer experiences through technology [8][20] Group 4: Future Potential - The current market size of Shenzhen's coffee industry is estimated at 476.4 billion yuan, with projections to reach 1.78 trillion yuan in the next five years [8][12] - The city's unique demographic and cultural characteristics position it well for rapid growth in coffee consumption, particularly among young, high-income professionals [12][19] - There is a growing trend towards personalized and high-quality coffee experiences, with brands adapting to meet diverse consumer preferences [11][15] Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite its rapid growth, Shenzhen's coffee culture lacks deep-rooted traditions and established national brands, which may hinder its aspirations to become a global coffee hub [17][20] - The city is actively working to cultivate a coffee culture through innovative consumer experiences and educational initiatives [17][20] - Establishing local coffee evaluation standards could further enhance Shenzhen's position in the global coffee market [18][19]