Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to January to April [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points; non-tax revenue was 17,467 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.5 percentage points [1] - In May, the general public budget revenue growth rate was 0.1%, slowing by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, with tax revenue growth dropping from 1.9% to 0.6% and non-tax revenue turning negative at -2.2% [2] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure - From January to May, national general public budget expenditure was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with the growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points [1] - In May, general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, slowing by 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, with significant declines in infrastructure spending, which fell by 7.7% [4] - Key areas of expenditure such as social security and employment saw a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while education and health spending grew by 6.7% and 3.9%, respectively [4] Group 3: Economic Analysis - The slowdown in revenue is attributed to factors such as the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), the unsustainable high growth of non-tax revenue, and weakened land transfer income [1] - The analysis indicates that the increase in value-added tax revenue reflects a trend of economic recovery, supported by robust growth in the equipment manufacturing sector [2] - The government is expected to accelerate bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, especially in light of the revenue slowdown and strong expenditure performance in the first four months [5]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's fiscal revenue and expenditure, highlighting a slight decline in growth rates for both public fiscal revenue and tax revenue in May, while also addressing the implications of these trends on broader economic conditions and fiscal policy. Fiscal Revenue Trends - In May, public fiscal revenue growth slowed to 0.1% year-on-year, down from 1.9% in the previous month, while tax revenue growth also decreased to 0.6% from 1.9% [1][5][6] - Non-tax revenue turned negative for the first time in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, attributed to reduced reliance on non-tax revenue and a significant downward adjustment in the growth target for non-tax revenue [1][5] - Cumulatively, public fiscal revenue for the first five months showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, narrowing the gap from the annual target by 0.37 percentage points [1][5] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Value-added tax performed well with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.4%, likely linked to improved industrial profits [8] - Personal income tax saw a significant increase of 8.2% year-on-year, influenced by a low base, tax reconciliations, and active second-hand housing transactions [8] - Consumption tax showed neutral performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6%, reflecting a mismatch with high retail sales growth [9] Fiscal Expenditure Insights - In May, narrow fiscal expenditure growth slowed to 2.6%, with central government expenditure rising by 11.0% and local government expenditure increasing by 0.9% [12] - The resilience in expenditure is attributed to the accelerated issuance of ordinary government bonds, which reached 39% of the annual target by May, the highest level in recent years [12][13] - Social security and employment expenditures maintained high growth rates, reflecting strong fiscal support for social security funds and employment policies [12] Broader Fiscal Context - Government fund revenue growth turned negative again in May, with a year-on-year decline of 8.1%, primarily due to a significant drop in land use rights revenue [15][16] - The real estate market's performance is a key constraint, with land sales showing a downward trend in April and May [15][16] - The overall fiscal situation indicates that while narrow fiscal targets may be met, broader fiscal outcomes remain uncertain due to fluctuations in the land market [15][16] Future Outlook - The improvement of macroeconomic price levels, particularly the Producer Price Index (PPI), is crucial for enhancing corporate profits and tax revenues [17] - The establishment of new policy financial tools is anticipated to support infrastructure investment and credit growth, potentially alleviating construction sector challenges [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first five months of 2025, highlighting a stable fiscal income but an expansion in fiscal expenditure to support economic stability and demand growth [1]. Fiscal Revenue - National general public budget revenue for January to May reached 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, which is a slight improvement from the previous four months' decline of 0.4% [1]. - Government fund budget revenue was 15,483 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.9%, which is a slight increase in the decline compared to the previous four months' 6.7% [1]. - Tax revenue, which is a key component of fiscal income, totaled 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, but this decline is less severe than the previous four months' 2.1% [1]. - Corporate income tax revenue for the first five months was 21,826 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, although the decline is narrowing as industrial profits have turned positive [1][2]. Factors Affecting Revenue - The real estate market remains sluggish, leading to a decline in related tax revenues, such as deed tax and land value-added tax, which experienced double-digit decreases [2]. - Complex foreign trade conditions, including trade wars, negatively impacted fiscal revenue, with significant declines in import VAT, consumption tax, and customs duties [2]. - Low prices have also reduced nominal fiscal income, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling by 3.3% year-on-year in May 2025, affecting tax bases like VAT [3]. Tax Revenue Performance - Despite overall tax revenue declines, certain sectors showed strong performance, particularly in manufacturing and services. For instance, tax revenue from railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace manufacturing grew by 28.8%, while computer and communication equipment manufacturing increased by 11.9% [4]. - In the service sector, tax revenue from cultural, sports, and entertainment industries rose by 7.8%, and the information transmission and software services sector saw a 10% increase [4]. Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue for the general public budget reached 17,467 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, primarily driven by asset activation [5]. Fiscal Expenditure - Total general public budget expenditure for January to May was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, which is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate [6]. - Key expenditure areas such as social security and employment saw growth rates of 9.2% and 6.7%, respectively, indicating strong support for public welfare [6]. - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 16% to 32,125 billion yuan during the same period [7]. Government Bond Financing - Net financing from government bonds reached 631 billion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 381 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting fiscal expenditure expansion [8].

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to May 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, which is a slight improvement from the previous four months' decline of 0.4% [1] - Government fund budget revenue was 15,483 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year, slightly worsening from the previous four months' decline of 6.7% [1] Tax Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue, which is a key economic indicator, accounted for 79,156 billion yuan of the general public budget revenue, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, an improvement from the previous four months' decline of 2.1% [1] - Corporate income tax revenue was 21,826 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing as profits of large industrial enterprises have turned positive [1][2] Impact of Real Estate and Trade - The real estate market remains sluggish, leading to significant declines in related tax revenues, such as deed tax and land value-added tax, which experienced double-digit decreases [2] - Complex foreign trade conditions, including trade wars, have negatively impacted fiscal revenue, with notable declines in import VAT, consumption tax, and tariffs [2] Price Levels and Tax Base - Low price levels have compressed nominal fiscal revenue, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% in May 2025, affecting tax revenue growth based on nominal value [3] - Domestic VAT revenue was 30,850 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [3] Sector-Specific Tax Revenue Growth - Despite overall tax revenue challenges, certain sectors showed strong performance, with equipment manufacturing tax revenue growing by 28.8% and computer communication equipment manufacturing by 11.9% [4] - The cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors saw a tax revenue increase of 7.8%, while the information transmission and software services sector grew by 10% [4] Non-Tax Revenue and Budget Adjustments - Non-tax revenue reached 17,467 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, primarily driven by asset activation [5] - Local government fund budget revenue was 13,635 billion yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer revenue declining by 11.9% [6] Fiscal Policy and Expenditure - To counteract declining tax revenue, the government has implemented a more proactive fiscal policy, accelerating bond issuance to support expenditure [6] - General public budget expenditure was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, which is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate [7] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 9.2%, and education expenditures increased by 6.7%, both exceeding the average expenditure growth rate [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the continuous growth in both revenue and expenditure in the region's fiscal budget for the first five months of the year, with public budget revenue reaching 755.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and public budget expenditure totaling 2563.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - Tax revenue has shown a positive trend, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% for the first five months, improving significantly from a mere 0.04% growth in the first four months [1] - Expenditure from municipal and county finances has also increased, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, and 13 out of 14 municipalities reporting positive growth in expenditure [1] Group 2 - In the area of public welfare, spending reached a historical high of 2014.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, maintaining a proportion of around 80% of total public budget expenditure [2] - Significant growth was observed in various sectors, including commercial services (38.2%), energy conservation and environmental protection (31.8%), transportation (25.8%), technology (15.1%), agriculture (10.3%), and education (8.9%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, announced that tax revenues for the current reporting season have exceeded targets, indicating a stronger-than-expected fiscal performance [1] Group 1 - The reported tax revenues are higher than anticipated, suggesting improved economic conditions [1] - This increase in tax revenue may have implications for government spending and budget planning [1] - The performance of tax revenues could influence future fiscal policies and economic forecasts [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported an improvement in fiscal revenue for April 2025, with total public budget revenue reaching 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 1.4 percentage points from the first quarter. Notably, tax revenue grew by 1.9% in April, marking a positive monthly growth [1] - The overall public budget revenue in April showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, up from 0.3% in March, indicating a marginal improvement in the revenue structure [1] Group 2 - Among the four major tax categories, corporate income tax, value-added tax, and consumption tax saw significant declines in year-on-year growth rates in April, with growth rates of 4.0%, 0.9%, and 0.5% respectively, compared to previous values of 16.0%, 4.9%, and 9.6% [2] - The personal income tax experienced a notable increase of 67.5 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 9.0%, attributed to a low base from the previous year [2] Group 3 - In terms of fiscal expenditure, the general public budget expenditure grew by 5.8% year-on-year in April, surpassing the revenue growth rate, indicating a continued focus on stable growth in fiscal spending [4] - By the end of April, the general public budget expenditure completed 31.5% of the annual budget, higher than the average of 30.7% over the past five years [4] - Infrastructure-related expenditures showed a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, with significant increases in urban and rural community affairs and transportation spending, while expenditures in agriculture, forestry, water affairs, and energy conservation showed a slowdown [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that tax revenue in the UK has increased compared to April of last year, partly due to the rise in national insurance contributions [1] - However, this increase in tax revenue has been offset by rising expenditures, attributed to the increased costs of public services and the growth in various welfare and state pension payments [1]

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first four months of the year was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] - In April, public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9% [1][2] - Non-tax revenue for the first four months was 15,060 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the growth rate slowed to 1.7% in April [3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for April turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, while the total tax revenue for January to April was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first quarter [2] - Major tax categories showed a decline in growth rates, with VAT, consumption tax, and corporate income tax experiencing significant drops [2] - Personal income tax saw a substantial rebound due to a low base from the previous year, rising from -58.5% to 9.0% [2] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure in April grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment spending (8.5%) and education spending (7.4%) [4] - Infrastructure spending showed a growth of 2.2%, with notable increases in urban community and transportation expenditures [4] - Overall, the acceleration in fiscal spending in April indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth amid external challenges [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while key areas of expenditure are being supported, the ongoing decline in cumulative fiscal revenue indicates underlying economic issues, particularly insufficient effective demand [5] - The focus of fiscal policy in the second quarter is expected to be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing large-scale new measures [5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月21日 2025 年 4 月财政数据快评 税收收入回正，广义支出提速 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 财政部公布 2025 年 1-4 月财政数据，全国一般公共预算收入 80616 亿，同比下降 0.4%。中央一般公共预 算收入 33928 亿，同比下降 3.8%；地方一般公共预算本级收入 46688 亿元，同比增长 2.2%。全国一般公 共预算支出 93581 亿，同比增长 4.6%。中央一般公共预算本级支出 12282 亿，同比增长 9%；地方一般公 共预算支出 81299 亿，同比增长 3.9% 评论： 税收增速由负转正。4 月一般公共预算收入当月同比 1.9%，前值 0.3%。税收收入当月同比 1.9%，前值-2.2%； 非税收入当月同比 1.7%，前值 5.9%，继 ...