继续缩表。 要点： 美联储连续三次会议暂停降息，符合市场预期。 声明称，经济不确定性"进一步"增加，新增语句"失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已增加"。 声明重申最近指标显示经济活动仍稳健扩张，但指出净出口波动已影响数据。 本次决议得到全体FOMC票委支持，未像上次有一人反对。 "新美联储通讯社"：联储官员在考虑重点是就业的风险还是通胀的风险。 美国总统特朗普再次失望。尽管他一再喊话呼吁降息，美联储还是选择观望，并未降息，还暗示特朗普的政策有引发滞胀的风险。 美东时间5月7日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间保持4.25%至4.5%不变。这是美联储连续第三次货币政策会议 决定暂停行动。联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100个基点，自今年1月特朗普上任以来，联储一直暂停行动。 本次美联储暂停降息完全在市场意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）的工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周保持利率不变的概率超过95%，6月也不 降息的概率超过68%，7月约有77%的概率降息。周三美联储决议公布前，衍生品市场定价显示，交易员削减降息押注，预计从7月开始，今年约有三次25 个基点的降息。 上 ...

Hyster-Yale Materials Handling (HY) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 07, 2025 11:00 AM ET Speaker0 Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Hyster Yale Inc. First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call. At this time, all lines are in listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. This call is being recorded on Wednesday, 05/07/2025. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Andrea Seba. Please go ahead. Speaker1 Good morning, and thank you fo ...

【文/观察者网 邓军 编辑/赵乾坤】 2025年曾被美国航空业寄予厚望，视为"成功之年"，然而现状却令许多航空公司失望：实际的乘客需求 未能达到年初设定的预期目标。 据比利时Travel Tomorrow网站、美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）等外媒报道，继美国西南航空公 司、美国达美航空公司、阿拉斯加航空公司、美国捷蓝航空公司撤回2025年度财务预测后，美国航空也 于当地时间4月24日宣布撤回2025年度业绩预测。当日（4月24日）美股开盘，美国航空股价一度下跌逾 1%，年内累计跌幅达47%，超过标普500指数的五倍。 美国航空在1月份曾预测全年调整后每股收益为1.70至2.70美元，营收增长4.5%至7.5%。然而，由于旅 行消费对多数个人和企业而言属于弹性支出，日益加剧的经济担忧为美国航空业前景蒙上阴影。 美国航空首席执行官罗伯特·艾瑟姆（Robert Isom）在接受CNBC采访时表示："尽管2024年第四季度和 2025年1月份的业务表现不错，但2月起国内（美国）休闲旅游需求显著下滑。" 另据美国劳工统计局的数据，3月份的美国机票价格同比下降了5.3%。 Travel Tomorrow网站的报道称 ...

Gulf Island Fabrication (GIFI) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 06, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company Participants Cindi Cook - Executive Assistant to CEORichard Heo - President, CEO & ChairmanWestley Stockton - Executive VP, CFO, Treasurer, Secretary & Principal Accounting OfficerMarty W. Malloy - Director of Research Operator Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Gulf Island's Conference Call to discuss First Quarter twenty twenty five Results. All participants will be in a listen only mode for the duratio ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted net investment income (NII) per share was $0.39, corresponding to a return on equity of 10.4% [6] - Adjusted net income per share was $0.30, with a return on equity of 8%, including $0.09 per share of adjusted net realized and unrealized losses [6][25] - Net asset value (NAV) per share decreased by $0.09 to $15.04, primarily due to net unrealized and realized losses [21][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross originations for the quarter were $298.9 million, with $159.5 million funded at close, reflecting a conservative approach to new investments [14] - The investment income yield remained robust at 10.8%, despite a sequential decline of about 40 basis points [12][29] - The weighted average spread on new originations increased by 30 basis points compared to previous quarters [16][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a significant deceleration in deal activity, contrary to expectations of a strong M&A environment [54] - Nonaccrual investments increased slightly to 70 basis points of total investments at fair value, with the number of nonaccrual investments remaining at nine [17][31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The investment strategy focuses on providing first lien senior secured loans to resilient middle market companies backed by strong private equity sponsors [3][39] - The company aims to navigate uncertainty by selectively looking for new loans and focusing on early detection and intervention for underperforming borrowers [9][10] - The company believes its strategy positions it well against potential tariff impacts, as most borrowers are U.S.-centric businesses [39][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a challenging macro environment marked by policy uncertainty and decreased consumer confidence [5][9] - The company remains cautious about new investment activity due to significant competition and unattractive deal conditions [54] - Management emphasized the importance of preparing for multiple scenarios and maintaining a resilient strategy [38][41] Other Important Information - Total distributions paid in the quarter were $0.39 per share, representing an annualized dividend yield of 10.3% [20] - The company has a strong liquidity position with approximately $1.2 billion available from unrestricted cash and undrawn commitments [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we think about the base payout going forward? - Management feels confident about the current dividend level despite spread and base rate compression, citing potential near-term levers to enhance earnings [46][47][51] Question: Are repayments trending low, and what is the focus on defending names? - Management observed a significant deceleration in deal activity and noted that private equity firms are holding longer in hopes of a better selling environment [54][56] Question: Should we expect a hit next quarter from the identified tariff risk names? - Management believes the situation is manageable and is actively working with borrowers to assess potential impacts [58][60] Question: What is the outlook for smaller companies in the portfolio? - Management indicated a focus on a broad range of EBITDA levels, with a preference for the core middle market where competitive dynamics are favorable [64][66] Question: Is there any thematic underpinning to the nonaccruals this quarter? - Management stated that the increase in nonaccruals was not influenced by tariffs and reflects general credit stress in the market [70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted net investment income (NII) per share was $0.39, corresponding to a return on equity of 10.4% [6] - Adjusted net income per share was $0.30, with a return on equity of 8%, including $0.09 per share of adjusted net realized and unrealized losses [6][20] - Net asset value (NAV) per share decreased by $0.09 to $15.04, primarily due to net unrealized and realized losses [20][24] - Debt to equity ratio remained stable at 1.16 times, with average net leverage at 1.17 times, within the targeted range [20][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross originations for the quarter were $298.9 million, with $159.5 million funded at close, reflecting a conservative approach to new investments [13] - The investment income yield was robust at 10.8%, despite a sequential decline of about 40 basis points [12][28] - The weighted average spread on new originations increased by 30 basis points compared to previous quarters [15][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a challenging macro environment characterized by policy uncertainty and decreased consumer confidence [5][8] - The portfolio remains highly diversified, with 90% of investments in the highest performing internal rating categories [11][25] - Nonaccrual investments increased slightly to 70 basis points of total investments at fair value, with nine total nonaccrual investments [16][29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The investment strategy focuses on providing first lien senior secured loans to resilient middle market companies backed by strong private equity sponsors [3][36] - The company aims to navigate uncertainty by selectively looking for new loans and focusing on early detection and intervention for underperforming borrowers [8][39] - The management emphasizes the importance of maintaining a resilient strategy and preparing for multiple economic scenarios [35][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that previous macroeconomic predictions have often proven incorrect, emphasizing the need for resilience and adaptability [34][35] - The company believes its portfolio is relatively insulated from direct impacts of tariffs and trade-related issues due to the nature of its borrowers [36][37] - Management is actively monitoring the portfolio for tariff-related risks and engaging with sponsors to mitigate potential vulnerabilities [38][39] Other Important Information - Total distributions paid in the quarter were $0.39 per share, representing an annualized dividend yield of 10.3% based on NAV [19] - The company has a strong liquidity position with approximately $1.2 billion available from unrestricted cash and undrawn commitments [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we think about the base payout going forward? - Management acknowledged the challenges of spread and base rate compression but expressed confidence in potential near-term levers to support the dividend [42][44] Question: Are repayments trending low, and what is the focus on defending names? - Management noted a significant deceleration in deal activity and emphasized a cautious approach to new investments while defending existing credits [50][51] Question: What is the status of the portfolio at risk for tariffs? - Management identified a small portion of the portfolio with potential exposure to tariffs but believes the impact will be manageable [55][66] Question: How is refinancing activity affecting the portfolio? - Management observed a shift from a borrower-friendly to a lender-friendly market, reducing concerns about significant refinancing activity in the near term [68][69] Question: Is there any noticeable trend in lender scale during recent market volatility? - Management indicated that the current environment plays to their strengths, with sponsors showing a preference for working with established lenders [70]

今天分享的是：2025全球领导力展望-中国报告-DDI_Password_Removed 报告共计：67页 《2025全球领导力展望|中国报告》围绕中国领导力现状与未来展开调研分析，通过对大量领导者和HR专业人士的数据研究，揭 示了当前领导力面临的挑战与机遇，并提出应对建议。 1. 领导力面临的挑战：全球经济不确定性增加，中国CEO最关注经济衰退和打造韧性组织。中国领导者在应对新技术应用等挑 战时信心不足，且不同层级领导力评价存在差异，基层和中层领导力发展相对滞后，存在断档风险。 2. 人才管理问题：企业人才准备度不足，继任梯队实力薄弱，高潜人才发展乏力，关键岗人才断层问题突出。在人才发展投入 上，存在资源错配现象，且现有发展方式效果不佳，领导者对发展项目价值存在质疑。 3. 企业发展挑战与应对： 中企出海趋势明显，制造业是主力军，但面临法律法规差异、文化差异等挑战，需要明确战略、防范 风险、培养国际化人才。人工智能应用虽受中国领导者关注，但推动团队采用新技术的准备度不足，企业需提升员工心力和相 关能力。 4. 职场环境与HR的角色：职场环境塑造方面，员工倦怠和"精神离职"现象值得关注，组织需打造韧性组织。H ...

摩根大通策略师表示，由于特朗普政府关税政策引发的经济不确定性，企业寻求增强流动性，4 月份企 业发行的短期债务激增。以 Teresa Ho 为首的摩根大通策略师团队援引美国存管信托及结算公司 (DTC) 的数据指出，上个月非金融商业票据发行量增加了 1000 亿美元，高于 2019 年至 2024 年（不包括 2020 年）每月 270 亿美元的平均值。在峰值时期，评级最高的票据（称为一级债券）与国库券之间的利差达 到自 2022 年 8 月以来的最大水平。与信用较低票据（称为二级债券）之间的利差达到自 2023 年 6 月以 来的最大水平。 ...

巴菲特先生曾经说过："只有在潮水退去之后，我们才能够知道谁在裸泳"。如果投资者不像成为别人发 现的那个裸泳者，那么就必须在潮水开始退去之间穿上泳衣。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 据媒体报道，巴菲特执掌的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司已经连续10个季度净卖出股票。截止2025年第一季度 末，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司所持有的现金类资产已经高达3470亿美元。 由此可见，巴菲特先生到目前为止尚未出手抄底美国股市，这是老爷子在告诉市场，他认为美国股市尚 未触底，市场还没有出现值得大手笔投资的标的。 在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司2025年会上，巴菲特先生说："我们并非始终满仓投资，因此赚了很多钱"。正如 巴菲特先生的那句名言："当别人贪婪时我恐惧，当别人恐惧时我贪婪"。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司连续10个 季度净卖出股票的事实说明，巴菲特先生如今非常恐惧市场。 那么是什么使得"股神"如此恐惧市场，竟然手握着创纪录的巨额现金类资产呢？笔者认为，特朗普总统 就职以来推出的一系列经济政策正在使得美国经济充满了不确定 ...

Apple CEO Tim Cook, center, watches during the inauguration ceremonies for President Donald Trump, right, and Vice President JD Vance, left, in the rotunda of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Jan. 20, 2025.A tale of two different technology companies is playing out this earnings season as President Donald Trump's global trade upheaval makes planning nearly impossible.Businesses reliant on advertising appear to be holding on for the near-term as those dependent on consumer spending have started to feel the cr ...