广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 根据美国劳工部3月7日公布数据 ，2月新增非农15.1万人，略低于预期的16万人；12月数据上修1.6 万人至32.3万人，1月数据下修1.8万人和12.5万人。失业率上行0.1pct至4.1%，高于预期的4.0% 。 第二， 从非农数据来看，美国就业市场基本平稳，但已有分化和弱化特征。一方面，1月非农受天气和火灾 影响的部门（建筑业）2月有较大幅度回补。就业扩散指数（表征就业广度）回升，特别是制造业扩散指数明 显回弹。另一方面，消费相关行业（零售）就业显著走弱，这一点和Q1沃尔玛调降全球收入和盈利预期一致 ，即2025年消费者消费能力和意愿降温带动雇佣需求弱化。此外，DOGE冻结招聘以及裁员政策导致联邦政 府部门新增就业由正转负，这一趋势可能还将延续 。 第三， 失业率小幅上行。一是失业率（U3）从前值的4.09%升至2月的4.14%。从失业原因来看，永久失业 贡献0.03pct，永久性失业人数的上升意味着公司裁员意愿有所提升。需要注意的是，1月劳动力人口显著回 落，若不考虑劳动力人口下降的38.5万 ...

Employment Data Summary - In February, the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs, slightly up from January's revised figure of 125,000 but below the market expectation of 160,000[9][10] - The three-month average for job additions is 199,700, indicating a slight downward trend compared to previous values[10][11] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, exceeding expectations, while the labor force participation rate decreased to approximately 62.4%[3][15] Labor Market Dynamics - The increase in permanent unemployment and re-employment rates suggests a continued decline in the labor market, with temporary unemployment and voluntary departures decreasing[19][15] - Average hourly earnings rose to $35.93, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, but the month-on-month growth rate showed a slight decline[23][19] - The leisure and hospitality sector has seen job losses for two consecutive months, indicating potential weaknesses in the service industry[11][14] Future Outlook - The employment market may continue to weaken due to federal government layoffs and the impact of illegal immigration policies, which are expected to have a negative effect on job availability[35][39] - The government layoffs have not fully impacted the February employment data, suggesting potential future job losses[35][36] - The ongoing deportation of illegal immigrants, although currently below expectations, may increase and further strain the labor market[38][39] Economic Implications - The February employment data is unlikely to significantly influence the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates[39] - Asset prices, including U.S. stocks and bonds, may remain under pressure due to concerns over economic momentum weakening[39][40]