日本央行行长植田和男：由于贸易政策导致海外经济放缓，企业利润下降，日本经济增长可能放缓。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the development of trade policies and their responses to overseas economies and prices are highly uncertain [1]

同时，尽管过去几个月通胀率年增，但迄今为止关税对消费者物价的影响仍然有限。美联储仍然认为关 税驱动的物价上涨只是水平变化，而非通胀的持续驱动因素。然而，由于基准关税的一些细节才刚刚明 朗，而且最近达成的"协议"的许多细节仍有待敲定，未来几个月通货膨胀率可能会继续上升。 关于在2024年降息100个基点之后，2025年是否会长期停滞、不会降息的问题，摩根资管指，美联储当 然愿意等待经济数据出现逆转——无论是成长放缓还是通胀上升——然后再采取行动，但可能需要几个 月的数据才能更清楚地了解该政策对美国经济的影响。 摩根资产管理环球策略师Kerry Craig表示，目前市场定价反映出9月降息的可能性不到50%，未来三次 会议上降息次数也不超过两次。摩根资管仍然预期美联储今年将放松政策，然而，9月降息的条件似乎 很高，可能需要劳动力市场出现实质恶化，并且政策决策的意外经济后果要到今年晚些时候才能完全显 现，这表明美联储可能在12月份降息。 美联储在7月会议上并未如预期般调整利率，但这标志着30多年来首次出现两位反对者。美联储希望被 视为货币政策"高效"，而非强硬或"鸽派"。 总体而言，美联储仍然认为经济状况良好。虽然对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan highlights uncertainty in trade policies and their progress, which continues to significantly impact the economic and price outlook [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan acknowledges that trade policy uncertainties are prevalent [1] - The impact of these uncertainties on the economy and price outlook remains high [1]

日本央行：如果经济和物价展望实现，将会加息。 2025和2026财年经济面临下行风险。 日本的贸易政策出现积极进展，需要监控贸易政策对财政体系的冲击。 利率决议是一致通过的。 需要留意前景展望出现巨大变化的可能。 通胀预期已经温和上升。 日本实际利率处于极低水平。 物价趋势将与下半年的展望目标相一致。 物价风险大体平衡。 贸易和其他政策如何演变依旧高度不确定。 ...

日本央行：日本与美国贸易协议等贸易政策取得进展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged amid uncertainties in inflation and the labor market, while continuing to monitor economic indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, unchanged after all five policy meetings this year [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 2 to maintain the rate, with two members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity growth slowed in the first half of the year, with a low unemployment rate and a solid labor market [1]. - The second quarter GDP growth rate was reported at 3%, following a contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter, leading to an estimated growth rate of approximately 1.2% for the first half of 2025 [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Trade Policy - Inflation remains elevated compared to the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, despite a decline from the 2022 peak [2]. - The impact of government policy changes, including higher tariffs, on economic activity and inflation is still uncertain, with potential short-term and long-term effects [2][3]. Group 4: Labor Market and Housing - The labor market is described as being in a balanced state, consistent with maximum employment [2]. - The housing market is experiencing a slowdown due to high mortgage rates and supply constraints, with a long-term housing shortage persisting [5][6]. Group 5: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve emphasizes the importance of maintaining its independence from political pressures, which allows for data-driven decision-making [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 25% in the second quarter, primarily driven by stronger realized steel prices in Mexico, partially offset by a slight increase in cost per ton [14] - Net income for the second quarter amounted to $259 million, including a $40 million provision adjustment related to ongoing litigation [15] - Adjusted net income, excluding the provision, was $299 million, supported by better operational performance and favorable deferred tax results due to a 7.5% revaluation of the Mexican peso [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments in the steel segment declined primarily in Mexico and the U.S., partially mitigated by higher volumes in the southern region [16] - Iron ore shipments rose quarter over quarter driven by increased production levels, although net sales remained broadly unchanged due to lower realized prices [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Mexican market is experiencing a cautious business environment, with government measures contributing to a decrease in steel imports, creating a more level playing field [6][8] - The Brazilian steel market faces significant challenges due to a surge of unfair imported steel, particularly from China, undermining local competitiveness [8] - Argentina saw a significant increase in shipments during the second quarter, driven by seasonal factors and a recovering macroeconomic environment [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reducing costs to strengthen competitiveness, with ongoing initiatives aimed at optimizing production processes and supply chains [10][11] - The expansion project in Pesqueria is a cornerstone of the company's growth strategy, with expectations of increased shipments in Mexico [8][10] - The company is committed to sustainable industrial development, as highlighted in their sustainable report [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The operating environment remains uncertain and volatile, with expectations of a sequential improvement in the third quarter, particularly in Mexico [4][5] - Management is optimistic about ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico leading to mutually beneficial agreements [7] - The company anticipates a mixed performance across key markets, with growth expected in Mexico and steady shipments in Argentina, while Brazil continues to face headwinds [17] Other Important Information - Cash from operations totaled $1 billion in the second quarter, aided by a significant reduction in working capital [19] - The company’s net cash position decreased primarily due to elevated capital expenditures and dividend distributions, but remains solid at $1 billion [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the state of steel supply in Mexico? - Management indicated that recent trade measures have led to lower imports, and they expect to gain market share due to these developments [22][23][25] Question: What is the outlook for cost reduction initiatives? - Management expects a total of $300 million in cost efficiency improvements for the year, with various initiatives contributing to this target [29][61] Question: What is the expected improvement in EBITDA? - Management anticipates reaching an average EBITDA margin closer to 15% by the fourth quarter, supported by cost reduction measures [40][41] Question: What is the status of the CSN litigation? - The litigation remains pending, with an appeal filed and awaiting a decision from the Supreme Court of Justice in Brazil [50][52] Question: What are the plans for capital allocation and dividends? - The company plans to sustain dividend payments while managing significant capital expenditures, with a peak expected this quarter [71][75]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) describes the global economic situation as "maintaining fragile resilience amid ongoing uncertainty," with projected growth rates for 2025 and 2026 slightly increased compared to previous forecasts [1][3]. Economic Growth Projections - The IMF forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, reflecting an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from earlier predictions [1]. - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow at rates of 4.1% and 4.0% in 2025 and 2026, with China's growth rate for 2025 adjusted up by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% [7]. Inflation Expectations - Global inflation is projected to decline, with rates expected to reach 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, although significant disparities exist among different economies [1][10]. - The IMF anticipates that U.S. inflation will remain above the 2% target level, while inflation in the Eurozone is expected to be more moderate [10]. Trade Volume Adjustments - The IMF has raised its 2025 global trade volume forecast by 0.9 percentage points but lowered the 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points, citing increased uncertainty in trade policies [4]. - A weaker dollar is expected to amplify tariff impacts rather than mitigate them, with U.S. fiscal policies potentially offsetting some negative effects on the current account balance [4][5]. Fiscal Vulnerabilities - The IMF warns of increasing global fiscal vulnerabilities, with some economies, including Brazil, France, and the U.S., projected to face significant fiscal deficits amid historically high public debt levels [5]. - Concerns over fiscal sustainability may lead to increased term premiums, particularly in the U.S., tightening global financial conditions and potentially causing market volatility [5].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) describes the global economic situation as "fragile resilience amid ongoing uncertainty," with projected growth rates for 2025 and 2026 slightly increased compared to previous forecasts [1][4]. Economic Growth Projections - The IMF forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, which are increases of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the April WEO predictions [1][4]. - Advanced economies are expected to grow at 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, while the United States is projected to grow at 1.9% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026 [2][8]. - Emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow at 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, with China's growth rate adjusted to 4.8% for 2025 and 4.2% for 2026 [7][8]. Inflation Expectations - The IMF anticipates global inflation rates to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with significant disparities among different economies [1][10]. - U.S. inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target level, while inflation in the Eurozone is projected to be more moderate [10][12]. Trade Volume and Policy Implications - The IMF has raised its 2025 global trade volume forecast by 0.9 percentage points but lowered the 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points due to increased trade policy uncertainty [5]. - The organization emphasizes the need for global policies to ease tensions, maintain price and financial stability, and implement necessary structural reforms to restore confidence and sustainability [1][4].