投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-1 贵⾦属延续震荡，关注就业数据及关税 进展 本周重点关注劳动⼒市场数据，以及关税第⼀个缓和期结束后的进展， 特朗普政府⽬前仍以施压态度为主，若⼆者发⽣边际恶化，短期将给⻩⾦ 带来上⾏驱动，若⼆者表现平缓，市场⻛险偏好或难有显著下⾏，⻩⾦短 期或仍需时间调整蓄⼒。⾦银⽐值震荡于90附近的平台，短期市场⻛险偏 好的回升对⽩银价格形成⽀撑，但⾦价的回落对银价同步形成拖累，属性 不共振下⽩银难有超额表现，短期预计仍将延续震荡整理⾛势。 1）美国总统特朗普对日美汽车贸易逆差表示不满，暗示可能对日本 汽车加征25%关税，7月9日谈判截止期临近。日本谈判代表延长在美 停留时间寻求突破，但美方内部立场未统一。日本持有超万亿美债或 成谈判筹码。加拿大为推进美加贸易谈判，取消数字服务税，此前双 方因该税激烈博弈。加美贸易占加拿大GDP20%，加方让步显示其对美 依赖。 2）美国财政部长贝森特表示，各国应当意识到，关税问题可能会回 退到4月2日的水平。在7月9日截止日期前的最后一周，预计将迎来一 波贸易协议的密集签署。他指出，目前尚未观察 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, stated that there has not been observed inflationary pressure resulting from tariffs, suggesting that any price adjustments may be one-time occurrences [1] Group 1 - The absence of inflationary pressure from tariffs indicates a stable economic environment [1] - Potential one-time price adjustments may occur, but they are not expected to lead to ongoing inflation [1]

Group 1 - The confidence level of UK employers reached a nine-year high in June, with the Lloyds Bank Business Barometer rising to 51%, the highest since November 2015 [1] - The economic optimism index in the survey hit a ten-month high, increasing by one percentage point from the previous month after a significant rise of 16 percentage points in May [1] - 60% of businesses expect to increase their workforce in the next year, indicating preparations for future growth [1] Group 2 - Adzuna reported a slight decrease in job vacancies in May compared to April, but a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, marking the third consecutive month of year-on-year growth after over a year of decline [2] - The CBI noted that while business sentiment has improved compared to May, overall sentiment remains weak due to increased employer tax burdens and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Businesses are facing higher labor costs, cautious consumer behavior, and rising global uncertainties [2]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time closing highs, confirming a technical bull market with a cumulative increase of over 20% since the low on April 8 [1][2] - For the week, the S&P 500 rose 3.44%, the Nasdaq increased by 4.25%, and the Dow Jones gained 3.82%, indicating strong market rebound momentum and improved risk appetite [2] Sector Performance - Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, the consumer discretionary sector led gains, while the energy sector lagged [3] - Nike's stock surged by 15.2%, significantly contributing to the index's performance after the company provided better-than-expected first-quarter revenue guidance and announced supply chain optimization plans [3] - Technology stocks performed strongly, with Google and Amazon rising over 2%, and Nvidia and Meta increasing by more than 1%, with Nvidia hitting a new high [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year in May, with the core PCE index increasing by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - Consumer confidence significantly improved, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rising to 60.7 in June, the highest level in four months, reflecting better economic outlook and reduced concerns about personal finances [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path have adjusted, with a 76% probability of a rate cut in September and a reduced likelihood of a cut in July at 19% [4] Commodity Market - In the commodities market, gold prices fell by 1.6% to $3287.6 per ounce, while WTI crude oil rose by 0.43% to $65.52 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 0.16% to $66.80 per barrel [4]

| 品种名称 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 772.00 | 774.70 | 764.96 | 元/克 | | 沪银主力 | 8788.00 | 8858.00 | 8762.00 | 元/千克 | | COMEX黄金 | 3341.30 | 3341.40 | 3298.00 | 美元/盎司 | | COMEX白银 | 36.89 | 36.98 | 36.57 | 美元/盎司 | 【消息面】 6月27日，国内贵金属期货涨跌不一，截止目前，沪金主力报价为766.40元/克，跌幅0.87%，沪银主力 报价为8792.00元/千克，涨幅0.55%；国际贵金属期则全线上涨，COMEX黄金报价3298.90美元/盎司， 跌幅1.28%，COMEX白银报价36.59美元/盎司，跌幅0.81%。 今日贵金属期货价格行情（2025年6月27日） 当前，通胀压力逐渐消退，但美联储的政策仍处于限制性区域。鲍威尔的任务不仅是应对眼前的经济挑 战，还要维护美联储的长期合法性。他必须避免重蹈疫情初期通胀失控的覆辙，为2026年5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizes its independence from political pressures, particularly in response to President Trump's calls for rapid interest rate cuts, opting instead for a patient approach to assess the economic impact of tariff policies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Environment - Trump's high tariff policies aim to reshape U.S. manufacturing and reduce trade deficits but have led to increased costs for consumers and businesses, contributing to inflationary pressures [3][6]. - The current U.S. economy appears stable, with inflation rising but not yet spiraling out of control, as the Federal Reserve maintains a high benchmark interest rate of 4.25% to 4.50% since December [3][6]. - Powell's focus on preventing temporary price spikes from becoming sustained inflation reflects the Fed's role as a guardian of monetary policy [3][4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Trump's public pressure on Powell for interest rate cuts is seen as a political maneuver to boost his support among voters, risking economic overheating and potential crises [4][9]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for avoiding short-term political pressures that could destabilize the economy, with Powell's stance serving as a model for global economic management [7][9]. Group 3: Global Implications - The interconnectedness of the global economy means that U.S. policy decisions, such as interest rate changes, can have far-reaching effects, potentially destabilizing financial markets if not handled cautiously [6][10]. - Powell's cautious approach is viewed as stabilizing for global markets amid rising geopolitical risks and trade tensions, helping to maintain the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [6][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Upcoming economic data, including employment, manufacturing, consumer confidence, and inflation indicators, will significantly influence the Fed's decision-making process [9][10]. - The ability of Powell and the Fed to maintain policy independence and rationality will be critical for both U.S. and global economic stability moving forward [9][10].

Economic Indicators - The actual GDP decreased by 0.30%, while the current dollar GDP grew by 3.50% [3] - Private domestic purchasers' actual final sales increased by 3.00%, but the import volume surged by 37.9%, significantly lowering GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [3] - Government spending saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, marking the largest drop since 1986 [3] Industry Performance - The actual value added in the private goods-producing sector fell by 2.8%, and the private services sector decreased by 0.3%, although government sector growth of 2.0% somewhat mitigated the overall decline [4] - The measure of current production profits decreased by $906 million, with a further decline of $275 million compared to previous estimates, indicating severe pressure on corporate earnings [4] Inflation Pressure - Inflation remains a significant concern, with the core PCE price index rising to 3.5%, above the expected 3.4% [5] - The domestic total purchase price index increased by 3.4%, and the PCE price index rose by 3.7%, suggesting a persistent upward trend in prices [5] Corporate Investment - May durable goods orders showed a strong increase of 16.4%, the largest since July 2014, exceeding expectations [6] - Core capital goods orders, a key indicator of business equipment investment, rose by 1.7%, indicating some positive signals in corporate investment despite declining profits [6] Employment Market - Initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, better than economists' expectations, but layoffs increased, leading to a rise in the number of individuals seeking continued assistance [8] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% in May to 4.3% in June, reflecting instability in the job market [8] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts, maintaining the benchmark overnight rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since December 2024, indicating a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [8]

Economic Overview - The U.S. real GDP for the first quarter decreased at an annualized rate of 0.5%, which is worse than the expected decline of 0.2%, marking the first economic contraction in three years [1] - The decline was primarily due to an increase in imports and a decrease in government spending, despite growth in investment and consumer spending [1][4] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption showed the weakest performance since the COVID-19 pandemic, with growth revised down from an initial 1.7% to only 0.5% [6] - The contribution of personal consumption to GDP was only 0.31%, significantly lower than the previously reported 0.80% and 1.21% [7] Investment and Trade - Fixed investment contributed 1.31% to GDP, driven by strong investments in data centers [7] - The trade deficit negatively impacted GDP by approximately 4.76%, slightly better than previous estimates [7] Inflation and Price Indices - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 3.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4][13] - The overall domestic purchases price index increased by 3.4%, reflecting upward adjustments in inflation estimates [13] Future Projections - The next GDP estimate for the second quarter is expected to show a rebound in economic growth, with economists predicting a growth rate of 3% [12]

美联储巴尔金：不认为关税的通胀压力会像一些人担忧的那样严重。 ...

美联储巴尔金：关税将推动通胀压力上升，预计关税政策将持续变化。 ...