Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, expressed regret over the U.S. imposing tariffs during the G7 and G20 meetings, highlighting that the trade war and its uncertainties harm the economy and emphasizing the need for constructive dialogue to correct global imbalances [1] Group 1 - The U.S. tariffs are seen as a source of economic harm, indicating a negative impact on global trade dynamics [1] - Kato's remarks suggest a call for international cooperation to address trade imbalances and reduce tensions [1] - The emphasis on constructive dialogue points to a potential shift towards diplomatic solutions in international trade relations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of Trump's tariff policies and their impact on global markets, emphasizing the significant adjustments in the U.S. stock market following the announcement of new tariffs [2]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Analysis - Trump's initiation of a tariff war has shocked global markets, indicating a departure from traditional economic policies [2]. - The announcement of tariffs was expected to be targeted, but the actual implementation exceeded market expectations, suggesting a more aggressive approach [2]. - Trump's strategy appears to be influenced by internal dissent within his administration regarding the tariff policies [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The new tariffs have led to substantial adjustments in the U.S. stock market, reflecting investor concerns over the implications of the trade war [2]. - The potential for retaliatory measures from other countries has been acknowledged, with Trump indicating a willingness to escalate tariffs further if necessary [2].

Macroeconomic Overview - In April, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 50.7, above the expected 49 and previous 50.2; the Services PMI preliminary value is 51.4, below the expected 52.6 and previous 54.4; the Composite PMI preliminary value is 51.2, below the expected 52 and previous 53.5 [3] - The Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 48.7, above the expected 47.4 and previous 48.6; the Services PMI preliminary value is 49.7, below the expected 50.5 and previous 51; the Composite PMI preliminary value is 50.1, slightly above the neutral 50, below the expected 50.2 and previous 50.9 [4] - The data indicates that Manufacturing PMI values are performing better than Services PMI, suggesting that the impact of trade wars on manufacturing has not yet fully materialized, while the Services sector reflects economic sentiment more quickly [4] Company Analysis: Yiyuan Communication - Yiyuan Communication reported a 2024 revenue of 18.594 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.14%, with a gross margin of 17.61%, down 1.33 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders is 588 million yuan, up 548.5% [7] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 5.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%, with a net profit of 145 million yuan, up 265% [7] - The growth is driven by a recovery in the IoT industry, with shipments of LTE, automotive, and 5G modules increasing by over 60% [7] Company Analysis: Sanhuan Group - Sanhuan Group reported a 2024 revenue of 7.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, with a gross margin of 43%, up 3.15 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders is 2.19 billion yuan, up 38.6% [8] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, with a net profit of 587 million yuan, up 33.8% [8] - The strong performance is attributed to a recovery in demand for consumer electronics and optical communication, as well as increased sales of MLCC products [8] Company Analysis: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.15%, with a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% [10] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, with a net profit of 91 million yuan, up 62.13% [10] - The overseas market remains the core source of revenue and profit, with a focus on OEM/ODM partnerships to enter international markets [10] Company Analysis: Wen's Food Group - Wen's Food Group reported a 2024 revenue of 104.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, with a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, up 244.5% [11] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 6.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 82.7% [11] - The company achieved profitability in its pig farming business, with a significant increase in pig sales volume and a rise in average selling price [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing observation of the tariff war's developments, with a softening stance from U.S. President Trump positively impacting Asian markets, including Hong Kong stocks [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index saw a significant increase, closing up 510 points or 2.37%, with a total turnover of HKD 260.6 billion, reflecting a 3.7% increase from the previous day [2][3] - The report notes a substantial outflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a net outflow of over HKD 18.1 billion, contrasting with the previous day's net inflow of HKD 21.36 billion [2] Industry Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices, 10 sectors rose while 2 declined, with Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology leading the gains at 3.82% and 3.68% respectively, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 2.34% increase [3] - The report indicates that the U.S. stock market continues to rebound, particularly in technology stocks, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq rising by 1.07%, 1.67%, and 2.50% respectively [3] Company Analysis: Xtep International (1368.HK) - Xtep International is focusing on the running market, with its main brand maintaining healthy inventory and discount levels, while its sub-brand Saucony is experiencing rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 40% [6] - The company plans to divest from KSWISS and Palladium, allowing it to concentrate resources on its main brand and Saucony, which is expected to lead to faster growth in the future [6] - The report suggests that the negative impact of tariffs on the company will be minimal, as most revenue is generated domestically, and the potential for increased domestic demand for sports products could positively influence sales [6] Investment Recommendation - The report predicts that Xtep International will benefit from the improving consumer environment, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.54, 0.61, and 0.67 HKD respectively, and assigns a target price of HKD 7 based on a 12x PE ratio for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-24 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 美财长提"重大"贸易协议机遇 观点分享： 华盛顿当地时间 23 日，美国财长贝森特表示，美国需要实现经济再平衡，更多地依赖制 造业和出口，而非消费，如果外方愿意采取行动，从相反的方向，实现经济再平衡，两个主 要经济体就有机会就贸易问题达成"重大协议"。贝森特说："若外方希望重新平衡经济， 我们愿共同推进。"贝森特此后称，特朗普尚未对个别主要经济体提出单方面降低关税，双 方达成全面的贸易协议可能需要两三年时间。美国"非常接近"与印度达成一份贸易协议。 贝森特连续两日提及主要经济体达成贸易协议的可能，这次提到有达成"重大协议"的机遇。 中方的态度很鲜明，打，奉陪到底；谈，就好好谈。彼此尊重，讹诈和极限施压免谈。我认 为，特朗普与美财长态度的软化并不能理解为关税战已云淡风轻，接下来或进入打打谈谈的 拉扯与纠缠，特朗普的反复无常与美国为应对其核心矛盾的焦虑依旧，因此，市场的不确定 性依然存在，而对于我们，保持定力，见招拆招，该谈谈该硬硬，依然是理智的策略。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | -- ...

昨天，发生了哪些财经大事？ 特朗普称美对华关税 或将大幅下降， 我外交部回应 4月23日，外交部举行例行记者会。有记者问，据报道，美国总统特朗普对记者称，对华 145%关税确实很高，协议达成后美对华关税将大幅下降，但不会降至零。中方对此有何评 论？ 对此，郭嘉昆表示， 中方早就指出，关税战、贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路，"脱钩 断链"只会孤立自己 。对于美国发动的关税战，中方的态度很明确， 我们不愿打，也不怕 打。打，奉陪到底；谈， 大门敞 开。 如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停 止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不 断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也是行不通的。 华裔CEO上任才1个月， 美国芯片巨头被曝大裁员 4月23日，据多家外媒报道，英特尔计划在本周宣布裁员超过20%的计划。这将是该公司自 1968年成立以来规模最大的一次组织调整。同时也是新任CEO陈立武（Lip-Bu Tan）上 任后推动的首次重大重组。截至2024年底，英特尔全球员工总数为10.89万人，若按20% 比例计算，裁员规模将超过2.18万人。此前，当地时间3月12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent positive signals from the U.S. regarding tariffs on China, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions and a shift in U.S. policy towards a more favorable stance on tariffs [2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy Changes - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the current trade conflict with China is unsustainable, suggesting a possible easing of tensions [3]. - The Trump administration is considering a tiered tariff system, imposing 35% tariffs on goods not deemed a national security threat and at least 100% on those considered strategic, with a gradual reduction planned [6][7]. - The financial markets reacted positively to these developments, with U.S. stock indices rising for two consecutive days [9]. Group 2: Financial Market Reactions - The article notes that the recent tariff discussions have led to a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. credit [15][18]. - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose sharply from 3.86% to 4.59% within a short period, reflecting increased selling pressure [18]. - The U.S. dollar index has also declined significantly, dropping below 100 points, which signals weakening confidence in the dollar [21]. Group 3: China's Response and Currency Internationalization - In response to the evolving situation, China has made strides in internationalizing the renminbi, with a new action plan aimed at enhancing cross-border financial services [27][28]. - The CIPS system, China's version of SWIFT, is expanding, with coverage now reaching 119 countries and a projected settlement amount of 175.49 trillion yuan for 2024, a 42.6% increase year-on-year [30]. - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting the use of the renminbi in international trade to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and enhance China's financial stability [33][34]. Group 4: Long-term Implications and Strategies - The article suggests that the ongoing tariff negotiations will be a protracted process, with U.S. officials indicating that discussions will be challenging [38]. - It highlights the need for China to continue pushing for renminbi internationalization as a strategic response to potential financial conflicts with the U.S. [43][49]. - The article concludes that while the path to replacing the dollar as the world's primary currency is fraught with challenges, the current U.S. policies may provide a unique opportunity for China to strengthen its financial position [49][51].

Report Overview - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report - Date: April 24, 2025 - Industry: Container Shipping - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The US releasing signs of easing tensions boosts market expectations, but the price increase in the spot market in May is insufficient. Airlines are continuing to lower their late-April quotes, and the early-May quotes are basically the same as those in late April. The market should pay short-term attention to the possible oversold rebound due to the easing of Sino-US frictions, while the far-month contracts may face greater downward risks [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Situation**: The US releasing signs of easing tensions boosts market expectations, but the price increase in the spot market in May is insufficient. Airlines are continuing to lower their late-April quotes, and the early-May quotes are basically the same as those in late April. The large container quotes are mostly in the range of $1900 - 2200, while the HPL quotes are relatively high at around $3000 and are further raised to $4000 for the second half of May. However, there is no collective price support action from shipping alliances yet. On the supply side, due to high US tariffs and port fees on Chinese shipping and shipbuilding industries, the demand on the US route has dropped significantly, and the freight rates have declined. Airlines are diverting ships from the US route to other routes, which may increase supply pressure and make price increases more difficult [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay short-term attention to the possible oversold rebound due to the easing of Sino-US frictions, while the far-month contracts may face greater downward risks [8] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **China's Export Container Shipping Market**: From April 14th to 18th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, with the composite index slightly declining. China's GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the national economy had a good start. However, the market expects that the "tariff war" will put some pressure on trade and the economy in the second quarter [9] - **European Routes**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, the seventh rate cut since June last year. The economic growth outlook in Europe is deteriorating due to intensified trade tensions. The shipping market remained generally stable this week, with relatively stable transport demand and slightly declining market freight rates. On April 18th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic European ports was $1316/TEU, a 2.9% decrease from the previous period [9] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation on the Mediterranean routes was slightly stronger than that on the European routes. The spot booking prices increased slightly this week. On April 18th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic Mediterranean ports was $2161/TEU, a 0.8% increase from the previous period [9] - **North American Routes**: The WTO adjusted its forecast for global merchandise trade volume this year from a 2.7% increase at the beginning of the year to a 0.2% decline. Trump's radical tariff policy will lead to a contraction in global trade in 2025, which will hit the North American trade the hardest. The cargo volume on the Sino-US shipping route declined this week, and the market began to adjust the overall capacity deployment. The freight rates on the US West route declined slightly. On April 18th, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and East were $2103/FEU and $3251/FEU respectively, a 4.5% decrease and a 0.8% increase from the previous period [10] - **Other News**: Discussions on a ceasefire agreement in Gaza are nearing completion; the US government plans to impose additional fees on Chinese ships docking at US ports; Maersk will adjust the peak season surcharge (PSS) for routes from Far Eastern countries (excluding China and Hong Kong, China) to the US and Canada, effective May 15, 2025; US President Trump expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with China [10] 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From April 14th to 21st, the SCFIS for the European route increased by 7.6% to 1508.44 points, while the SCFIS for the US West route decreased by 13.8% to 1368.41 points [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Quotes**: The trading data of container shipping futures on the European route on April 23rd shows that different contracts had different price changes, with the EC2512 contract having the largest increase of 6.01% and the EC2504 contract having a decrease of 0.19% [6] - **Shipping-Related Data Charts**: The report provides charts on global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [19][22]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 108 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a net injection of 3.5 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [2] - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates for deposit-taking institutions have significantly decreased, with the former down nearly 8 basis points and the latter down over 5 basis points [2] Group 2: Bond Market Trends - The yields on major interbank bonds have generally increased, with 1-year government bonds at 1.4351%, 5-year at 1.4975%, and 10-year at 1.6580% [9] - The closing prices of government bond futures collectively fell, with the 30-year main contract down 0.4% and the 10-year main contract down 0.17% [12] Group 3: International Relations and Economic Impact - The meeting between the leaders of China and Azerbaijan resulted in the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership, emphasizing the need to maintain international order and fairness amid trade tensions [13] - U.S. President Trump's comments indicated a potential significant reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods, reflecting ongoing discussions about the trade war between the two nations [15] Group 4: Bond Issuance and Events - Suzhou Guotou issued Jiangsu Province's first technology innovation corporate bond, and the Ministry of Finance issued 1.5 billion yuan of 15-year bonds in Hong Kong [16] - A total of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long special government bonds will be issued starting April 24 [16]

2025.04. 23 本文字数：1914，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 隔夜的"川"剧变脸引爆全球金融市场。 美国总统特朗普最新言论表示，他并不打算解雇美联储主席鲍威尔并会大幅降低对中国的关税，财长 贝森特隔夜也在一场闭门会中提及，对中国的高关税不可持续。 尽管只是口头表示且特朗普的言行并没有什么确定性，但市场悬着的心暂时还是放下了，"抛售美国 资产"的情绪有所缓解，美元指数一度站上99，此前跌破98大关，年内跌幅高达近10%，美国三大股 指涨幅亦接近3%，美债收益率明显回落。 受此影响，亚洲股市昨日大涨，截至当日收盘，恒生指数和恒生科技指数分别上涨2.37%和3.07%， 人民币对美元更是来到了7.3下方，出现人民币和美元指数齐飞的罕见态势。截至北京时间4月23日 20:30，美元/离岸人民币报7.2869，人民币较前一日走强近300点。 摩根士丹利首席中国策略师王滢对记者表示，若关税真正缓和，中国离岸股市的表现将优于A股，互 联网/科技、消费、医疗保健最为受益。 "川"剧变脸重挫金价 由于避险情绪降温，黄金在盘中冲上3500美元的历史性高点后掉头下行，收盘下跌1.27%失守3400美 ...