Macroeconomic Insights - In Q1 2025, GDP growth is expected to reach approximately 5.2% due to improved fiscal policies and increased local government bond issuance of about 596.8 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year[4] - The manufacturing PMI in March showed a slight increase, with new orders and new export orders rising by 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points respectively, although new export orders remain below the expansion threshold at 49[4] Market Strategy - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. is expected to increase the importance of domestic consumption in stabilizing the Chinese economy, with retail sales growth needing to rebound by 2.2% to 4.9% to achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5%[5] - A-share and Hong Kong consumer stocks are viewed as resilient assets amid global market volatility, with a focus on sectors like agricultural products and military industries[5] Financial Market Conditions - The overall A-share market valuation has decreased, with the PE ratio for the Wind All A Index at 15.0, down 0.1 from the previous week, placing it at the 49.1 percentile of historical valuation levels[7] - In April, the liquidity environment is expected to improve compared to March, with a focus on the potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut rather than interest rate reductions[10] Banking Sector Developments - Major banks are expected to receive a capital injection of approximately 520 billion yuan, which could enhance their credit expansion capacity by about 11.8 trillion yuan, representing 2.8% of the current social financing scale[11] - The average total assets to core tier one capital ratio for the six major banks is 14.8 times, indicating significant leverage potential from the capital injection[11] Real Estate Market Trends - The decline in mortgage rates is anticipated to stimulate housing demand, with the current first-home loan interest rate at 3.06%, which is only 21 basis points above the 5-year LPR[14] - The expected reduction in mortgage rates could lead to a decrease in "trend trading" listings, improving the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market[14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is affected by macro disturbances and weak fundamentals, with the lead price expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the 16,500 yuan/ton support level [1] - The zinc market has a weak fundamental situation with increasing supply and demand in the recovery stage. Affected by macro factors, the Shanghai zinc price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the 22,000 yuan/ton support level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - On April 9, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,625.00 yuan/ton, down 1.34%; the futures main contract closing price was 16,540.00 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,870.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.84, down 0.72% [1] - The trading volume of the lead futures active contract was 49,232.00 lots, down 45.52%; the open interest was 42,720.00 lots, down 3.63%; the trading volume - to - open interest ratio was 1.15, down 43.47% [1] - The LME lead inventory was 235,725.00 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 61,687.00 tons, down 0.20% [1] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Primary lead smelters have basically resumed production, with a 23 - percentage - point increase in electrolytic lead production in March. Some smelters in Henan will enter maintenance in April, and the production may decrease month - on - month [1] - In the secondary lead market, the supply of waste batteries is tight, and the overall price of waste batteries is still firm. If downstream enterprises resume production as scheduled this week and smelters cut production due to raw material shortages, the finished product inventory of secondary lead will decline again [1] - On the demand side, the post - Spring Festival restocking peak did not appear, and it is currently the off - season, with limited support for the lead price [1] 3.3 Market Outlook - Affected by the US's "reciprocal tariff" announcement and the decline of the external market during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the lead price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the 16,500 yuan/ton support level [1] Zinc 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - On April 9, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,470.00 yuan/ton, down 1.71%; the futures main contract closing price was 22,295.00 yuan/ton, down 1.46%; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,553.00 US dollars/ton, down 2.35%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.73, up 0.92% [1] - The trading volume of the zinc futures active contract was 260,461.00 lots, down 18.40%; the open interest was 79,667.00 lots, down 16.07%; the trading volume - to - open interest ratio was 3.27, down 2.77% [1] - The LME zinc inventory was 125,825.00 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 8,656.00 tons, down 10.09% [1] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc concentrate processing fee has continued to rise. The tight supply of zinc concentrates is expected to improve, the cost - side support has weakened, and the smelters' profit and production enthusiasm have improved, with an obvious trend of increasing production [1] - On the demand side, the galvanizing sector was mostly in normal production during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, with little impact on production; the die - casting zinc alloy sector's production decreased due to the holiday, but the actual orders were okay; the zinc oxide sector's production increased due to improved demand and fewer holiday - taking enterprises [1] 3.3 Market Outlook - Affected by the continuous rise of TC, the weakening of cost - side support, the increasing supply of zinc ingots, and the US's "reciprocal tariff" announcement, the Shanghai zinc price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the 22,000 yuan/ton support level [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of gold is weak, and it is expected to continue its weak performance due to factors such as the settlement of long - positions after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs and short - term liquidity crises [1][3] - For nickel, the short - term view is to wait and see, with the price showing resistance after a sharp drop. If the macro sentiment improves, the futures price may rebound from the oversold level [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term: Down; Medium - term: Sideways; Intraday: Down; Reference view: Bearish in the short - term. The core logic is that after the reciprocal tariffs are implemented, long - position settlement and short - term liquidity crises suppress the gold price. Gold prices in New York and London have fallen below $3000, and it is expected to continue its weak operation [1][3] Nickel - Short - term: Sideways; Medium - term: Sideways; Intraday: Slightly bullish; Reference view: Wait and see. Affected by US "reciprocal tariffs", the non - ferrous metals market opened sharply lower after the holiday. The nickel ore market is strong, providing support for the nickel price, while the oversupply of nickel elements limits its rise. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the macro sentiment improves [1][5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the expiration of 229.9 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos today [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to announce its interest rate decision [1] - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the United States officially takes effect at 12:01 AM Beijing time [1]

美国"对等关税"实施进入倒计时！黄金重要节点如何演绎？点此无门槛领取国信期货首席分析师顾冯达 的《今日黄金行情前瞻》资料！仅限50个名额 相关链接 ...

最终产生的负面影响或不及预期 当地时间4月2日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立10% 的"最低基准关税"，并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税。一旦关税得以落地，对全球经济将带来明显的负面冲击， 全球化红利的消灭、供应链重组对供需双方的冲击将带动全球走向衰退。但是，考虑到关税政策本身可能迎来反 复，以及关税落地后高税率国家可能绕道低税率国家进行间接出口，最终产生的负面影响可能不及预期。 图为美国货物贸易与金融项目国际收支差额（单位：亿美元） 图为美国对华关税综合税率（单位：%） 图为中国对东盟重点产品出口额和美国对其出口额 图为中国对美出口增加值及出口总值份额 图为全球经济增速与贸易占比（单位：%） A此次拟加征关税的细节有哪些 当地时间4月2日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立10% 的"最低基准关税"，并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税。 关税层级主要按照地区影响力划分 此次美国对全球加征关税主要依据2024年对美出口货物贸易顺差排名制定，但是，其中仍划分了三个大类层级： 北美圈、个别区域重要国家、其他主要对美顺差经济体。 ...

金十数据4月9日讯，加拿大财政部8日宣布，对美国汽车对等征收25%关税措施将于美国东部时间9日零 时1分生效。加拿大财政部长商鹏飞表示，加拿大将继续对美国向加方征收的所有不合理关税作出有力 回应。加拿大政府坚定致力于尽快取消这些美国关税，以保护加拿大的工人、企业、经济和工业。商鹏 飞说，加拿大还将针对汽车生产商实施减免方案，以激励汽车生产商在加拿大的生产和投资，并帮助维 持加拿大的就业岗位。 （新华社） 加拿大宣布对美国汽车征收对等关税将于9日生效 ...

美国白宫：在谈判达成协议的过程中，对等关税将继续生效。 ...

美国贸易代表：我们将制药和半导体排除在对等关税之外，因为我们认为它们需要进行单独调查。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Singapore's Prime Minister expressed disappointment over the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on Singapore, arguing it violates the free trade agreement between the two countries and the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - The free trade agreement between the U.S. and Singapore is highlighted, with Singapore importing significantly more from the U.S. than it exports [1] - The U.S. claims that "reciprocal tariffs" target countries with trade surpluses with the U.S., but Singapore should not be subjected to such tariffs due to its trade dynamics [1] Group 2: Global Trade Impact - The imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. is seen as a violation of the WTO's most-favored-nation principle, which could have widespread implications for the global trade system and economy [1]