美国关税政策仍是影响全球市场的重要因素。 今日，亚太主要市场高开，日经225指数开盘涨1.13%，韩国KOSPI指数涨0.9%。此外，美股主要股指期货亦走高，金价则短线走低。 当地时间4月11日深夜，美国海关与边境保护局发布公告称，智能手机、路由器以及部分电脑和笔记本等产品将不再被纳入此前针对中国进口商品实施的125%所 谓"对等关税"范围内。 亚太市场高开 今日早盘，亚太主要市场高开。日经225指数开盘涨1.13%，截至发稿，涨幅扩大至2%以上。 | 日经 225 | | --- | | N225 | | 34317.42 今开 34006.37 最高 34325.59 最低 33959.48 | | 金额 -- 振幅 1.09% 2 18% 731 84 芯里 | | 昨收 33585.58 52周高42426.77 52周低30792.74 | | 相关基金 日经 ETF 1.013 -1.27% 跟踪误差 ⑦ 0.66% > | | 分时 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 更多, <0> | | 均价:34186.46 最新:34317.42 731.84 2.18% | | 34325.59 2.20% | ...

文 ｜ 秦培景 刘易 王冠然 侯苏洋 卿施典 任恒毅 白弘伟 田鹏 王涛 王子昂 上周关税等外部因素影响的高峰已过，国内政策表态增强投资者信心，市场风险偏好开始修复，综 合考虑前期回调幅度、政策及事件催化，本周建议关注四大主题，包括强催化期来临的AI+主题， 受益于国家内循环和关税反制措施的免税及农业主题，率先超跌反弹的北交所主题，外部限制加码 下的半导体自主可控主题。外部扰动开始边际缓和，关税等外部因素影响的高峰已过，但全球仍处 于衰退预期交易阶段，主题方面，建议聚焦自主可控主线，以及业绩确定性或订单确定性强、估值 水平相对低位的相关板块和资产。从主题环境来看，综合流动性指标和市场风格特征，预计高位主 题板块受风险偏好下行影响大。从催化因素分析上看，重点关注围绕"对等关税"的博弈进展，第 1 3 7届中国进出口商品交易会首次在第一期增设服务机器人专区，第三届新能源汽车创新技术及行 业发展论坛展现行业的技术突破。结合市场环境、催化因素以及综合量化指标研判，建议关注 AI+、免税及农业、北交所、半导体自主可控四大主题。我们在报告中还梳理了1 0个标的构成的主 题推荐组合供投资者参考。 及边境保护局（CBP）在官 ...

特朗普还是不得不选择了妥协让步。 据新华社报道，美国政府相关网络平台11日晚悄然发布信息，对智能手机、笔记本电 脑、芯片等电子产品豁免所谓"对等关税"。 在此之前，科技公司才经历了"高税临头"的惊魂一周——苹果紧急包机从印度空运1 5 0万部、 重达6 0 0吨的手机回美国，任天堂推迟了Swit c h 2在美国的新品上线，戴尔、微软和联想纷纷 督促供应商尽快发货到美国，尤其是3 0 0 0美元以上的高端产品"能发多少就多少"，三星考虑 到涨价影响已经向部分供应商砍单。 欧洲的芯片厂商，虽然还在关税豁免的范畴，但已经笼罩在特朗普关税大棒的阴影之下。阿斯 麦CEO傅恪礼在4月3日就直言，地缘政治紧张局势正在损害创新，这些关税或将扰乱整个世 界的贸易流动。 不可否认，电子信息产业早已深度嵌入全球产业大分工，"对等关税"注定是一场没有赢家的战 争。 作 者丨赖镇桃 编 辑丨和佳 图 源丨图虫 欧洲不少半导体厂商，主要市场都在中国和美国 ，已经提前对关税大棒感到紧张。英飞凌首 席财务官Sv e n Sc h n e i d e r在2月份就表示，特朗普政府的关税带来了不确定性，特别是引发反 击措施的时候，关税和反制关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Customs announced a waiver on certain goods from "reciprocal tariffs," which is generally seen as a positive development for the tech industry, particularly for companies like Apple and Dell [1][7]. Group 1: Waiver Announcement - The waiver covers 20 product categories, including semiconductors, communication devices, smartphones, and display modules, effective retroactively from April 5, 2024 [6]. - The estimated value of the exempted products is around $100 billion, representing approximately 23% of U.S. imports from China in this category [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Analysts view the announcement as optimistic, providing temporary relief to major tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft, despite ongoing uncertainties regarding the "reciprocal tariffs" [7]. - The waiver is expected to alleviate some export pressures for China, as the tariff rate has reached 125% [7]. Group 3: Future Uncertainties - President Trump indicated that further details regarding the semiconductor tariff exemptions would be provided soon, suggesting potential changes in the future [3][9]. - A new national security trade investigation into semiconductors may lead to additional tariffs, indicating that the waiver does not eliminate the risk of future trade barriers [4][9]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Experts suggest that the tariff policy has reached a critical point, with concerns that continued tariffs could trigger a global financial crisis [8]. - The current situation reflects significant domestic and international pressures on U.S. trade policy, leading to a potential shift in strategy by the Trump administration [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the exemption of tariffs on electronic products reflects a shift from reciprocal tariffs to national security tariffs [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, emphasizes the importance of national security in trade policy decisions [1] - This trend may impact the pricing and availability of electronic products in the U.S. market [1] - The shift could lead to further scrutiny of imports based on national security concerns rather than purely economic factors [1]

我们注意到，这是继美方4月10日暂缓对部分贸易伙伴征收高额"对等关税"以来，对相关政策做出的第二次调整。应该说， 这是美方修正 单边"对等关税"错误做法的一小步。 今天（13日），商务部新闻发言人就美方豁免部分产品的"对等关税"答记者问。 商务部新闻发言人表示， 美东时间4月12日，美方公布相关备忘录，豁免计算机、智能手机、半导体制造设备、集成电路等部分产品 的"对等关税"，中方正在对有关影响进行评估。 来源：央视新闻 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 以一纸行政令出台所谓"对等关税"，不仅违背基本的经济规律和市场规律，也是对国家间互补合作和供需关系的无视。"对等关税"自4月2 日推出以来， 不仅没有解决美自身任何问题，反而严重破坏国际经贸秩序，严重干扰企业正常生产经营和人民生活消费，损人不利己。 中方对中美经贸关系的立场是一贯的。贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。中国有句古话，"解铃还须系铃人"。我们敦促美方正视国际 社会和国内各方理性声音，在纠错方面迈出一大步，彻底取消"对等关税"的错误做法，回到相互尊重，通过平等对话解决分歧的正确道路 上来。 ...

2025.04. 13 微信编辑 | 小羊 推荐阅读 时隔7日，小米SU7再现交通事故！ 据俄罗斯卫星社网站4月13日报道，美国总统特使理查德·格雷内尔表示，特朗普认为与中国进行谈 判，从而找到摆脱贸易对峙局面的出路至关重要。 据报道，格雷内尔在福克斯新闻频道的节目中说，特朗普是 "谈判大师，但要谈判就必须对话"。此 外，格雷内尔坚信，特朗普"相信和平协议"。他在节目中说："我们刚刚摆脱了（前总统）拜登三年 多不与（俄罗斯领导人）普京对话的局面。" 特朗普此前签署了关于对从其他国家进口商品征收所谓"对等关税"的行政令，并多次提高税率。 针对美国所谓"对等关税"，中国陆续发布多项反制措施。4月11日，中国国务院关税税则委员会发布 公告称，自4月12日起，对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税税率由84%提高至125%。并指出，鉴于在 目前关税水平下，美国输华商品已无市场接受可能性，如果美方后续对中国输美商品继续加征关税， 中方将不予理会。 对于美加征关税问题，中国外交部发言人表示，关税战、贸易战没有赢家，中方不愿打，但也不怕 打。如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止极限施压、胡作非为。任何对话都必须建立 在平 ...

这些电话，传递了两个信号：1、中国正在团结维护国际贸易公平正义的力量。美国掀起了单边的贸 易战，中国要做的，就是团结一切能团结的力量，不只是东盟，不只是欧盟。2、舆论场也有个别声 音在担忧，认为如果其他国家都和美国达成了协议，那中国怎么办？中方的态度很明确，其他国家不 管是反制美国还是和美国谈判，都是各国的主权事务，中方没有任何意见。但如果谁拿着中国的利益 去给美国当投名状，中国绝不答应！ 据"玉渊谭天"微博消息，这几天，商务部部长王文涛密集与各方沟通。这些沟通中，都谈了应对美国 所谓"对等"关税。接下来，中方还会同更多国家一道，就应对美加征所谓"对等"关税进行沟通，加强 合作。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the implications of Trump's tariff policies, which are seen as a double-edged sword that may exacerbate existing economic issues in the U.S. rather than resolve them [1][3][10] - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" are intended as a tool for "America First," but the fundamental economic principles remain unchanged, leading to potential negative consequences for the U.S. economy [2][4] - The agricultural and manufacturing sectors in the U.S. are particularly affected, facing rising costs and decreased competitiveness due to the tariffs [2][4] Group 2 - There is significant internal dissent within the U.S. regarding Trump's tariff policies, with even members of his cabinet expressing doubts and considering resignation [4][6] - The tariffs impose an invisible tax burden on American consumers, who end up paying higher prices for everyday goods, contradicting the intended protective measures for American citizens [4][6] - Protests against the tariff policies have erupted across the U.S., indicating widespread public dissatisfaction and unrest [6] Group 3 - Trump's approach to trade negotiations, including the intention to isolate China, reflects a strategy of power politics that may undermine America's international standing and alienate allies [7][12] - China's response emphasizes respect, dialogue, and cooperation as effective means to resolve differences, countering Trump's aggressive tactics [9][12] - The ongoing trade conflict is characterized as a test of economic strength, strategic wisdom, and political endurance, with uncertain outcomes for both the U.S. and China [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [3][4]. Core Insights - The ongoing escalation of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to a divergence in demand for construction materials and steel plates, with a notable impact on export demand for plates [3][4]. - Domestic steel prices have decreased, with significant drops in various categories, including rebar and cold-rolled steel [8][9]. - The overall steel production has seen a slight decline, with total output for major steel varieties at 8.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.46 million tons week-on-week [2][3]. Price Trends - As of April 11, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,170 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [8][9]. - The prices for hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel have also seen declines, with hot-rolled at 3,330 CNY/ton (down 40 CNY) and cold-rolled at 3,910 CNY/ton (down 100 CNY) [8][9]. Production and Inventory - The production of rebar increased by 3.72 million tons to 2.32 million tons this week, while total inventory decreased by 388,300 tons to 11.76 million tons [2][3]. - The social inventory of rebar decreased by 278,500 tons, while factory inventory increased by 72,500 tons [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following companies: 1. Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector 2. CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials in the special steel sector 3. Jiuli Special Materials, Wujin Stainless Steel, and Youfa Group in the pipe materials sector [3][4]. - It also recommends paying attention to high-temperature alloy stocks, specifically Fushun Special Steel [3]. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates a decrease in long-process steel profits, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins down by 19 CNY/ton, 41 CNY/ton, and 38 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - Short-process electric furnace steel profits have seen a slight increase [1][3]. International Market Overview - The U.S. steel market prices have remained stable, with hot-rolled coil prices at 1,040 USD/ton and cold-rolled at 1,270 USD/ton [21][23]. - European steel prices have increased, with hot-rolled prices at 715 USD/ton, up 25 USD from the previous week [21][23]. Raw Material Market - Domestic iron ore prices have shown a mixed trend, with some prices declining, such as Brazilian powder at 850 CNY/ton, down 35 CNY [26][27]. - Scrap steel prices have also decreased, with a current price of 2,030 CNY/ton, down 60 CNY from last week [26][27].