隔夜，现货黄金收盘暴涨87.96美元，涨幅1.95%，报4597.05美，金价盘中最高触及4630.28美元，创下 历史新高。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在4594美元附近徘徊。 重磅数据来袭！ 隔夜，美股三大指数集体收涨，截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.17%，标普500指数涨0.16%，均创收盘新 高，纳斯达克综合指数涨0.26%。 消息面上，美国前财经要员联名批评特朗普政府对鲍威尔发起刑事调查。 美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已就美国联邦储备委员会华盛顿总部翻修相关事宜，对美联储主席 鲍威尔启动刑事调查。 不过，美国十余名曾在财经界担任要职的人士12日发表联合声明，批评特朗普政府对联邦储备委员会主 席鲍威尔发起刑事调查。 此外，曾担任美联储主席的耶伦、伯南克和格林斯潘发表声明声援现任美联储主席鲍威尔。他们称针对 鲍威尔的刑事调查是对美联储独立性的"前所未有"攻击。 有媒体认为，鲍威尔遭刑事调查显示出白宫权力与美联储独立性的交锋已非一朝一夕，总统特朗普与鲍 威尔及美联储之间一系列冲突正在延续和升级。 摩根大通认为，特朗普政府最新一轮对美联储独立性的攻击，至少在短期内对美股构成威胁。"宏观与 企业基本面支持 ...

美东时间周二上午8:30（北京时间今晚21:30），美国劳工统计局将发布2025年12月消费者价格指数（CPI）。 此前美国政府停摆对数据采集的扭曲效应逐渐消退，市场普遍预期此次数据将显现通胀韧性，或标志此前物价增速放缓趋 势暂时终结，核心CPI回升预期凸显潜在价格压力仍存。 市场预期层面，彭博调查经济学家共识显示，12月整体CPI与核心CPI（剔除食品和能源成本）同比涨幅均预计达2.7%。若 预测兑现，整体CPI将与11月持平，核心CPI较前值2.6%小幅加速。 11月通胀数据意外走低主要受技术性因素干扰，12月数据将更真实反映干扰消除后的物价水平——此前政府停摆导致的数 据收集延迟和统计窗口偏移，可能掩盖部分真实通胀压力。 此次数据关键看点集中在月度环比增速修复。彭博和FactSet调查显示，整体和核心通胀指数环比涨幅预计均为0.3%，高于 11月的0.2%。高盛、美银等机构对核心通胀月度表现预判更激进，认为涨幅可能达0.4%；摩根士丹利预计核心CPI环比增 长0.36%，远高于10-11月平均的0.08%。 二是假日折扣偏差，11月价格采集延迟至月末，隐性过度加权假日促销折扣，人为压低核心商品（除汽车外 ...

但如果真像特朗普想得那么多好处，对美国来说也算好事，鲍威尔为啥宁被调查也不降？第一，通胀还在2.8%，离2%的目标差得远，降息等于火上浇油； 第二，美联储的独立性是几十年的奇迹，最怕成提线木偶；想着自己任期只剩四个月，5月就到期，老特就这么等不及杀鸡儆猴？唯一的解释就是特朗普要 干一件非常劲爆的大事，美联储挡道了。 根结说白了就是：特朗普把央行当自己的选举工具、提款机，鲍威尔想守点专业底线。这哪是查腐败，分明是杀鸡儆猴，逼美联储配合他搞"劲爆操作"！老 鲍偷点啤酒算啥，特朗普想偷的是整个美国的金融稳定，这波霸权操作，怕是要把自己玩进去咯！ 特朗普今天干了一件漂亮活儿，都快直接给我整笑劈了！特朗普拿刑事调查怼美联储主席鲍威尔，罪名居然是"装修盗窃"，美联储那破楼装修花了200多 亿，按照特朗普的性格大概率给老鲍安一个靠偷建材发家的罪名，难怪经济学博士出身老鲍威尔不干，太侮辱文化人了！ 其实，要说这都是借口！特朗普的真实目的就俩字：降息！为啥这么执念？38万亿国债压得喘不过气，每年利息超1万亿，降息一个点就能省4000亿，这可 是白捡的钱；中期选举要刷经济数据，低利率能让股市飘红、选民开心，还能忽悠制造业回流，自 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 因此前政府停摆导致的人为低通胀数据得到修正，美国2025年年末的消费者价格指数（CPI）可能会加 速上升，这将进一步巩固美联储本月维持利率不变的预期。 长达43天的政府停摆阻碍了去年10月份的价格采集工作，导致美国劳工统计局（BLS）不得不采用"结 转法"（carry-forward method）来估算数据（尤其是租金）以编制去年11月的CPI报告。虽然该月的价格 数据最终得以采集，但这主要发生在下半月，当时零售商正在提供假日季折扣。 这种数据扭曲主要体现在租金指标和商品价格上。在预期消费者通胀回升之前，上周发布的非农数据显 示，尽管就业增长温和，但12月失业率有所下降。 道明证券美国首席宏观策略师Oscar Munoz表示："受数据采集问题影响，我们预计CPI报告将显示出显 著的回补效应，这归因于政府停摆。不过，我们不会看到消费者价格的完全逆转，因为租金方面的回补 要等到2026年4月的报告才会体现。" 经济学家预计价格将加速上涨，尤其是新车、家具和服装等商品，尽管租金方面的疲软倾向可能会持 续。美国劳工统计局使用6个月的面板数据来计算租金和业主等 ...

【基本面消息】 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周一预计2026年美国经济将保持健康，并暗示短期内没有降息的理由。威廉姆斯 表示，FOMC已将货币政策从温和限制性的立场进一步推向接近中性的水平，"当前的货币政策已具备 良好条件，有助于支持劳动力市场的稳定，并推动通胀回归2%的目标。" 威廉姆斯表示，美联储在将通胀拉回2%目标的同时，"避免给就业市场带来不必要的风险"至关重要。 他补充称："近几个月，随着劳动力市场降温，就业面临的下行风险有所上升，而通胀的上行风险则有 所减弱。" 威廉姆斯预计今年GDP增速在2.5%至2.75%之间，失业率今年趋于稳定，并在随后几年回落。在通胀方 面，他预计价格压力将在今年上半年见顶于2.75%至3%之间，全年平均回落至2.5%，并在2027年回到 2%。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货1月13日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计630066千克，今日仓单较上一 日减少19577千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报20900元/千克，最高触及21518元/千克，最低触及20600 元/千克，截止收盘报21004元/千克，上涨5.90%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 周二21：30，美国将公布美国12月CPI数据。市场普遍预计，该通胀数据将显示物价压力依然顽固，且 距离美联储2%的目标仍有距离。 根据彭博社和FactSet的综合调查数据：整体CPI预计将环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.7%。剔除波动较大的 食品和能源后的核心CPI预计将环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.7%。 尽管克利夫兰联储的Nowcast模型给出的预测略低（核心CPI环比增长0.22%），但华尔街主流观点认为 通胀并未显著降温。 政府关门后遗症 值得注意的是，本次数据的解读需要极高的专业性，因为去年10月和11月发生的联邦政府关门事件对数 据采集造成了干扰。 美国银行（Bank of America）经济学家指出，由于政府关门导致10月部分数据无法采集，劳工统计局 （BLS）在11月使用了"结转估算"。这意味着12月的数据将与较早期的价格（如8月）进行对比，从而 产生技术性的上行偏差。 此外，11月的数据可能受到假日促销季提前采集的影响而被人为压低。花旗集团（Citi）指出，随着这 一因素消退，以及酒店、机票和服装价格 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice has led to a significant increase in metal prices, particularly silver, which saw a daily increase of over 14% [2] - The Shanghai silver futures price closed at 21,004 yuan per kilogram on January 13, with a daily increase of 5.90% and a trading volume of 1,141,819 contracts [1] - The current market sentiment is bullish for silver, with the Shanghai silver premium expanding to 2,200 yuan per kilogram, driven by geopolitical concerns and heightened emotions in the market [2] Group 2 - New York Fed President Williams projected that the U.S. economy will remain healthy through 2026, suggesting no immediate need for interest rate cuts [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has shifted monetary policy closer to a neutral stance, which is expected to support labor market stability and help inflation return to the 2% target [2] - The investigation into Powell has caused market volatility, with potential implications for his willingness to relinquish power [2]

Group 1: Precious Metals Outlook - Citigroup has significantly raised its short-term outlook for precious metals due to increased geopolitical risks, physical shortages, and uncertainty regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve. The gold price target for the next 0-3 months has been increased from $4,200 to $5,000 per ounce, while the silver target has been raised from $62 to $100 per ounce [1][6] - The investment momentum remains strong, and several favorable factors are expected to persist in the first quarter. Analysts noted that the ongoing physical shortages of silver and platinum group metals may worsen in the short term due to potential delays in the U.S. Section 232 tariff decisions, which could further drive up prices [1][6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs has postponed its forecast for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now expecting a 25 basis point cut in June and September 2026, instead of March and June 2026 as previously anticipated. This adjustment follows weak non-farm employment data, indicating a gradually weakening labor market, while GDP growth remains stronger than expected [2][7] - The chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs stated that the Fed is likely to wait until mid-year to cut rates, anticipating inflation to return to target levels and the labor market to stabilize. The firm has reduced its probability of a recession within the next 12 months from 30% to 20% [2][7] Group 3: Currency Market Movements - The gold price surged to a historical high, breaking the $4,600 mark, supported by rising geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence. The current trading price is around $4,600, with resistance at $4,650 and support at $4,550 [3][8] - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight gains, supported by expectations of the Fed maintaining its current stance and a cooling of expectations for rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. The current trading price is around 158.80, with resistance at 159.50 and support at 158.00 [4][9] - The USD/CAD pair saw a slight decline, trading around 1.3870, influenced by profit-taking and a weakening dollar index. The current price is under pressure from rising oil prices, with resistance at 1.3950 and support at 1.3800 [5][10]

Core Insights - The upcoming CPI data is expected to show resilience in inflation trends, potentially marking the end of the previous slowdown in price growth [1][3] - The consensus forecast for December's overall CPI and core CPI is a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, with core CPI slightly accelerating from 2.6% [1][3] Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The sticky nature of inflation supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the short term, with a low probability of rate cuts in the near future [3][12] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected decline in November's inflation data was largely influenced by technical factors, and December's data will reflect the true price levels after these distortions are removed [3][9] Monthly Data Recovery - Key focus for December's CPI data is the recovery in month-over-month growth rates, with estimates for both overall and core inflation indices expected to rise to 0.3% from November's 0.2% [4][6] - Some economists predict that core inflation may show even stronger monthly performance, potentially reaching 0.4% [4][6] Statistical Biases from Government Shutdown - The potential strength in December's data is attributed to the reversal of the "shutdown effect," which previously hindered data collection [9][10] - Two significant statistical biases from the government shutdown are identified: dual-month sampling bias and holiday discount bias, which affected November's data [10][11] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Economists anticipate noticeable rebounds in prices for hotels, airfare, and clothing, with core goods and services inflation expected to accelerate [11] - However, some analysts predict only moderate increases in owner’s equivalent rent (OER), which could help control December's inflation figures [11] Future Inflation Pressures - Inflation pressures are shifting from service-related costs to tariff-related costs, with companies increasingly looking to pass on rising input costs to consumers [11][12] - Concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on inflation are highlighted, with expectations of price increases in early 2026 [12] Federal Reserve Policy and Independence Concerns - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains in a precarious state, with inflation consistently above the 2% target [13] - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly in light of recent legal actions against its chairman [13] Market Reaction Predictions - Predictions for the upcoming CPI data suggest varying impacts on the S&P 500 index based on core CPI month-over-month rates, with different probabilities assigned to potential market movements [14][15] - The foreign exchange market is closely monitoring the data, especially the USD/JPY currency pair, which typically reacts strongly to U.S. data releases [15][18]

Core Insights - The inflation trend in the U.S. is expected to show resilience by the end of 2025, marking a potential end to the previous slowdown in price growth [1] - The upcoming core CPI data is anticipated to reflect underlying price pressures, with both overall and core CPI expected to rise to 2.7% year-over-year [1][2] Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The sticky nature of inflation supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the short term, with market expectations indicating a low probability of rate cuts in the near future [2] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected decline in November's inflation data was largely influenced by technical factors, and December's data will reveal the true inflation levels as these distortions fade [2][7] Monthly Data Recovery - The key focus for December's CPI data is the recovery in month-over-month growth rates, with consensus estimates predicting a rise to 0.3% for both overall and core inflation indices [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a significant rebound in December's core CPI, projecting a month-over-month increase of 0.36%, well above the average of 0.08% seen in October and November [5] Statistical Distortions - The potential strength in inflation data is attributed to the reversal of the "shutdown effect," which previously hindered data collection and led to artificially low November figures [7] - The December CPI data is expected to correct for statistical biases caused by the government shutdown, which affected housing data and resulted in an underestimation of inflation [7][12] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Economists predict noticeable rebounds in prices for hotels, airfare, and clothing, with expectations of accelerated inflation in food, core goods, and core services [8] - However, some analysts anticipate only moderate increases in owners' equivalent rent (OER), which could help control December's inflation data [8] Future Inflation Pressures - Inflationary pressures are shifting from service-related costs to tariff-related impacts, with companies increasingly looking to pass on rising input costs to consumers [8][9] - Concerns have been raised about a potential wave of price increases related to tariffs in early 2026, as businesses signal intentions to transfer higher costs to consumers [9] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve faces a complex situation as inflation remains above the 2% target, with overall CPI readings fluctuating between 2.3% and 3.0% [10] - Market predictions suggest that the Fed may remain inactive in terms of rate cuts unless there is a significant drop in inflation in the first quarter [10] Market Reaction Predictions - Morgan Stanley has developed a predictive matrix for the core CPI month-over-month rate and its potential impact on the S&P 500 index, indicating various scenarios based on CPI outcomes [11][13] - The forex market is closely monitoring the upcoming CPI data, particularly the USD/JPY exchange rate, which typically reacts strongly to U.S. economic data [11][16]