Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to break through 1200 yuan per gram in the second half of the year, analyzing key factors and predictions for the market [1][18]. Current Price and Target Gap - As of July 2025, domestic gold jewelry prices range from 1000 to 1010 yuan per gram, with brands like Chow Sang Sang at 1000 yuan and Chow Tai Fook at 998 yuan [1]. - The current international gold price is 3320 USD per ounce (approximately 760 yuan per gram), indicating that a target price of 1200 yuan per gram requires a 20% increase, necessitating the international price to exceed 4500 USD per ounce [3]. Historical Comparison - The peak price for gold jewelry in April 2025 was 1082 yuan per gram (with international gold at 3500 USD per ounce) [3]. - To reach 1200 yuan, gold prices must surpass the historical peak by 11%, which is significantly higher than current market momentum [3]. Supporting Factors for Price Increase - A continued depreciation of the US dollar could stimulate short-term gold price increases if the dollar index falls below 90 (currently at 99.7) [3]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (potentially 100 basis points this year) could also support gold prices, although the implementation of such policies remains uncertain [3]. - Escalating geopolitical conflicts, such as renewed violence in the Middle East and increased trade tensions with the US, may drive demand for gold as a safe haven [4]. Central Bank Purchases - In 2024, global central banks purchased a net total of 1045 tons of gold, and if this trend continues at a rate of 1000 tons annually, it could provide long-term support for gold prices [5]. Core Constraints - The premium pressure on gold jewelry is significant, with processing fees exceeding 200 yuan per gram. If international prices do not rise, retail prices may struggle to surpass 1100 yuan [6]. - A strong technical resistance level exists at 3400 USD per ounce, and breaking through this requires robust fundamental support [7]. - Consumer sentiment is currently low, with many potential buyers waiting for prices to drop to around 600-700 yuan per gram [7]. Institutional Perspectives - There are differing views among institutions regarding gold price forecasts: - Bullish outlooks from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict prices reaching 3700 USD (approximately 1120 yuan) by year-end and potentially challenging 4000 USD (around 1200 yuan) by 2026 [9]. - Bearish views from CITIC Securities and Citigroup suggest that if risk appetite declines and the dollar strengthens, prices could fall to 2500-2700 USD (approximately 600-650 yuan) [9]. - Neutral perspectives from Nanhua Futures expect prices to remain in the 1000-1100 yuan range with increased volatility but unlikely to break previous highs [9]. Conclusion - The likelihood of gold prices breaking 1200 yuan per gram in the near term is low, with a more probable scenario being a range of 1000-1100 yuan per gram through 2025, with the target of 1200 yuan potentially delayed until 2026 [10].

美元指数1日下跌 智通财经7月2日电，美元指数1日下跌。衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.05%，在汇市 尾市收于96.822。截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1781美元，高于前一交易日的1.1776美元；1英镑兑 换1.3738美元，高于前一交易日的1.3718美元。1美元兑换143.72日元，低于前一交易日的144.20日元；1 美元兑换0.7927瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的0.7934瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3652加元，高于前一交易日 的1.3625加元；1美元兑换9.4925瑞典克朗，高于前一交易日的9.4665瑞典克朗。 ...

彭博美元指数跌0.04%，报1189.75点，日内交投区间为1185.43-1191.23点，17:34创2022年3月2日（当天 底部在1184.56点）以来新低。 周二（7月1日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数跌0.03%，报96.846点，全天走出V形走势，整体交投区间为 96.377-96.949点，北京时间17:34创2022年2月24日（当天底部在96.279点）以来新低。 ...

Group 1 - The dollar index has experienced its worst half-year performance since 1973, with a cumulative decline of approximately 10.8% in 2025, second only to a 14.8% drop in the first half of 1973 [1] - Key factors contributing to the dollar's decline include Donald Trump's trade and tariff policies, which have created significant uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, negatively impacting the dollar's attractiveness [2] - Trump's public criticism of the Federal Reserve and calls for interest rate cuts have undermined market confidence in the dollar, as the independence of the central bank is crucial for currency stability [3] Group 2 - Market optimism regarding U.S. trade agreements has fueled strong expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting additional downward pressure on the dollar [4] - Following the dollar index's drop to multi-year lows, further downward pressure is anticipated due to dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve and weak domestic economic data [5] - The significant depreciation of the dollar is likely to impact U.S. trade dynamics, making exports more competitive while increasing import prices, potentially leading to inflationary pressures [6] Group 3 - The decline of the dollar is prompting central banks worldwide to reassess their foreign exchange reserve structures, with many increasing allocations to gold, euros, and renminbi to reduce reliance on the dollar [7] - A survey indicated that 70% of central banks believe the U.S. political environment hinders their investment in dollars, leading to a diversification trend that could reshape the global monetary system [7] - The future trajectory of the dollar index remains uncertain, influenced by trade policies, Federal Reserve adjustments, and global economic growth [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 1, 2025 [1] - Authors: Wang Mengying (Z0015429), Liao Chenyue (F03120676) [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] - Report Title: Stock Index Daily Report [1] Group 2: Market Review - Stock Index Performance: The stock index continued to rise, with the CSI 300 index closing up 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 20.842 billion yuan. Among the stock index futures, IF decreased in volume, IH and IC increased in volume, and IM decreased in volume. [2] Group 3: Important News - Tariff Announcement: With only 10 days left until the "tariff deadline" on July 9, Trump clearly stated that there is no need to extend the upcoming tariff deadline. He will directly send letters to hundreds of countries to notify them of the tariff rates and will no longer conduct individual trade negotiations. [3] Group 4: Core View - Market Outlook: The stock index continued to rise today, but the trading volume of the two markets continued to shrink. There is a lack of positive information to drive the index up, and the future strength of the RMB exchange rate remains to be seen. The market sentiment is cautious, and the sustainability of this round of the stock index rise is uncertain. If the trading volume continues to shrink and the upward momentum weakens, a short - term adjustment is expected. [4] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Strategy: Hold and wait for further development [5] Group 6: Futures Market Observation | Futures Type | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.03 | 7.0001 | -0.8991 | 23.8772 | -0.5835 | | IH | 0.08 | 3.2102 | -0.8576 | 8.3173 | -0.2668 | | IC | 0.01 | 6.8686 | -0.2617 | 22.0821 | -0.054 | | IM | -0.36 | 18.1858 | 0.9846 | 32.7974 | 1.0329 | [5] Group 7: Spot Market Observation | Index Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.39 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.11 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.03 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 146.6015 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | -20.842 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing trend of gold recovery transactions in China, particularly in Wenzhou, where individuals are capitalizing on rising gold prices to sell their holdings for significant profits [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Recovery Trends - A recent transaction involved an individual selling 8 kilograms of gold for 6.12 million yuan, resulting in a net profit of approximately 3.12 million yuan based on the original purchase price [2]. - The gold recovery business has seen a 50% increase in activity compared to the period before gold prices surged in 2022, with daily inquiries about gold buying and selling becoming common [3]. - High-value gold recovery orders, which were once rare, are now becoming a regular occurrence in the industry, with businesses receiving multiple inquiries daily [3]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - As of July 1, 2023, gold prices have reached 1,000 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 15 yuan, with other brands also showing similar upward trends [7]. - The spot gold price has increased by over 25% year-to-date, making it the best-performing asset class in the first half of the year, with prices recently surpassing 3,340 USD per ounce [7]. - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with potential targets of 3,300 USD per ounce and even 3,500 USD per ounce under extreme risk scenarios [10]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Emerging markets are expected to increase their gold reserves, with central banks projected to maintain annual purchases between 800 to 1,200 tons in the coming years [11]. - The precious metals market is anticipated to experience price increases due to a weakened US dollar credit system and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [5] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [5] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has led to a drop in the US dollar index and a rise in Shanghai aluminum prices. The alumina spot price has slightly weakened, and the smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the consumption off - season. Although the overall consumption shows a marginal weakening trend, the inventory increase is limited, and the absolute inventory value remains at a historically low level, with long - term attention to delivery risks [3]. - For alumina, the cost is stable, but the alumina plants are relatively pessimistic about the future price, resulting in low enthusiasm for bauxite procurement. The weekly production and inventory are both rising significantly, and the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Currently, the delivery risk has been alleviated [4]. - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with limited price increase space in the spot market. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Market Data - On June 30, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,580 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,690 yuan/ton [1]. - The opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract on June 30, 2025, was 20,575 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,580 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 167,837 lots and a position of 272,406 lots [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 468,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 345,750 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The supply is stable in China, and the Middle East crisis has not affected Iranian electrolytic aluminum. The European natural gas inventory is in good condition. The overall consumption shows a marginal weakening trend, and inventory accumulation is expected in July, but the accumulation range is limited [3]. Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to take a neutral stance. For arbitrage, a long - position in the positive spread of Shanghai aluminum is recommended [5]. Alumina Price and Market Data - On June 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,075 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,080 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The opening price of the alumina main contract on June 30, 2025, was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,985 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 253,492 lots and a position of 288,909 lots [2]. Market Analysis - A certain electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered 10,000 tons of alumina spot, and the winning bid price was between 3,370 - 3,410 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the previous transaction. The cost is stable, but alumina plants are pessimistic about the future price, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm for bauxite. The production and inventory are rising [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, a cautiously bearish stance is recommended [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Market Data - On June 30, 2025, the Baotai civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the mechanical aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 26,000 tons, a weekly increase of 2,200 tons; the in - plant inventory was 82,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 100 tons; the total inventory was 108,800 tons, a weekly increase of 2,100 tons [2]. Market Analysis - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with limited price increase space in the spot market. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, a neutral stance is recommended. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on AD11 and short on AL11 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

美元指数DXY日内走低0.50%，现报96.77。 美元指数 ...

美元指数2025年上半年累计下跌10.8%，创1973年以来最差同期表现——当时累计下跌14.8%。与现任 美国总统特朗普贸易和关税政策主张相关的不确定性、以及他一而再再而三地要求美联储降息，都给美 元造成沉重的下行压力。 ...