Global Macro - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, aligning with market expectations [2] - The meeting saw two dissenting votes from Board members Bowman and Waller, who favored an immediate 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the consensus [2] - The Fed's statement removed previous language indicating reduced uncertainty, emphasizing that economic uncertainty remains high, reflecting a more hawkish stance [2] - Powell's comments indicated that the Fed is committed to its independence despite external pressures, particularly from former President Trump, and that the impact of tariffs on the economy is still uncertain [2][4] Labor Market and Rate Cut Expectations - Powell dismissed the need for preemptive rate cuts to counter potential labor market downturns, asserting that the labor market remains robust [3] - The dissenting members expressed concerns about labor market vulnerabilities, but Powell maintained that current economic performance does not warrant a premature rate cut [3] - Following the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from approximately 65% to around 45%, with expectations for one to two cuts by the end of 2025 [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP showed a significant rebound in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in economic activity [9] - The labor market remains strong, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1% [11] - Inflation indicators suggest a rising trend in commodity prices, with core PPI and CPI showing upward movements [15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Insights - Adidas reported a 12% increase in revenue for Q2 2025, with a net profit of €375 million, despite the impact of tariffs [2][7] - The company maintained its full-year guidance, expecting high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit growth for the main brand, despite increased costs due to tariffs [3][28] - All regions and channels achieved double-digit growth in the first half of the year, excluding the impact of Yeezy [4][11] Summary by Sections Performance and Guidance - Q2 revenue was €5.952 billion, a 2.2% year-over-year increase, with a 12% increase in the main brand's revenue at constant currency [2][7] - The company’s gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points, and operating profit increased by 58% to €546 million [4][24] - Management expects a revenue increase of at least €200 million if not for tariff impacts, maintaining a conservative outlook due to uncertainties [28][29] Regional Performance - All regions except Europe achieved double-digit growth in Q2, with North America showing a 15% increase and Latin America a 23% increase [11][19] - The Greater China region saw an 11% increase, benefiting from localized strategies [11][19] Product Category Performance - Apparel led growth with a 17% increase, while footwear grew by 9% [19][21] - Professional categories, particularly running and training, showed strong performance, with running exceeding 25% growth [19][21] Channel Performance - Wholesale channels led growth with a 14% increase, while DTC channels grew by 9% [23][24] - E-commerce faced challenges with a 3% decline when excluding Yeezy, but overall DTC remained strong [23][24] Cost and Margin Analysis - Gross margin improved to 51.7%, driven by reduced discounts and lower product and shipping costs [24][28] - SG&A expenses decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 42.8%, reflecting improved operational efficiency [24][28] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights confidence in Adidas' growth trajectory, recommending key suppliers like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, as well as core retailer Taobo [31][32]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.49 on sales of $1.5 billion, with an operating margin of 11% [6][23] - Free cash flow reached $78 million, a significant increase compared to the previous year, representing a cash conversion of 108% [7][26] - The effective tax rate for the second quarter was 18.3%, about 170 basis points better than planned [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerials segment sales were $607 million, with an operating margin improvement of 500 basis points sequentially, but about 200 basis points lower than expected due to customer mix [26][27] - Materials Processing (MP) sales were $434 million, 9% lower than last year, with an operating margin of 12.7%, showing a sequential improvement from 10% in Q1 [27][29] - Environmental Solutions (ES) generated $430 million in sales, with a 12.9% year-over-year growth and a 19.1% operating margin, reflecting strong operational execution [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Waste and recycling now represents approximately 30% of global revenue, characterized by low cyclicality and steady growth [16] - The company noted a two-speed profile in U.S. construction, with strength in large projects and infrastructure, while local private projects remain soft [17] - European markets are experiencing a weak economic environment in the near term, but there are encouraging signs for infrastructure and industrial spending growth in the medium to long term [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging synergies across its portfolio, particularly following the ESG acquisition, and is ahead of initial synergy targets [19][21] - The company plans to maintain its full-year EPS outlook of $4.7 to $5.1, expecting stronger performance in Environmental Solutions in the second half [7][35] - The company is also looking to invest in organic growth while returning capital to shareholders, with a new $150 million share buyback program announced [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by high interest rates and tariff-related uncertainties impacting capital decisions [15] - The company expects to see a significant increase in free cash flow compared to 2024, anticipating between $300 million and $350 million in 2025 [35] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate the current dynamic environment and deliver long-term value to shareholders [38] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing direct and indirect tariff-related inflation on materials, estimating a net impact of approximately €0.50 for the full year [13] - The company has a strong liquidity position with $1.2 billion available, and plans to deleverage in the second half of the year [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the strong ES margins? - Management attributed the strong ES margins to operational efficiencies, improved execution in utilities, and favorable customer and product mix [42][43] Question: What drove the $20 million adjustment in EBITDA guidance? - The adjustment was driven by stronger outlook in ES, offset by unfavorable mix in Aerials and higher tariffs [50][51] Question: How do you view the margin outlook for Aerials in the second half? - Margins are expected to decline in the second half due to tariffs, lower sequential volume, and unfavorable customer mix [58] Question: What is the outlook for replacement demand? - Normal discussions on replacement demand are ongoing, with some signs of fleets aging in certain segments [71] Question: How are tariffs impacting the cost profile? - The company does not expect material impact from steel inflation due to hedging and local sourcing [108] Question: What is the outlook for digital revenue streams? - The company is expanding its Third Eye technology and exploring additional digital revenue opportunities [121]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Second quarter sales reached EUR 3.1 billion, down 7% year-on-year but up 6% sequentially, mainly due to increased North American OCTG prices and stable volumes [4] - EBITDA for the quarter was up 5% sequentially to USD 733 million, with an EBITDA margin close to 24% [4] - Operating cash flow was USD 673 million, with capital expenditure of USD 135 million, resulting in free cash flow of USD 538 million [5] - Net cash position amounted to EUR 3.7 billion at the end of the quarter after dividend payments and share buybacks [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average selling prices in the Tubes operating segment decreased by 2% year-on-year but increased by 6% sequentially [4] - The company expects lower sales in the third quarter due to reduced invoicing in fracking operations and lower shipments of line pipe [16][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. Section 232 tariff on steel products increased from 25% to 50%, creating market uncertainty and affecting pricing dynamics [7] - The company anticipates that the current broad-based tariff approach will eventually shift to a more specific product-based approach [7] - The company noted that imports are expected to decrease as excess inventories are drawn down [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a strong U.S. domestic production base and enhancing its Rig Direct service to differentiate itself in the market [8] - The company is building local service bases in the Guyana Suriname Basin to support operations for major clients [11] - The acquisition of Shawcor is expected to enhance the company's ability to serve clients with a competitive offer and short lead times [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's solid industrial and commercial position despite a slowdown in drilling activity in some regions [6] - The outlook for the third quarter includes expectations of lower sales and invoicing due to various factors, including maintenance activities [20] - Management indicated that while the rig count in North America may not see a strong reduction, pricing dynamics will be influenced by tariff impacts [18] Other Important Information - The company has received significant project awards, including for the supply of casing and tubing for major projects in Brazil, Alaska, Nigeria, Angola, and the Mediterranean [9][11] - The company is optimistic about the development of the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina, despite current challenges [12][41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for 2025 considering tariff impacts and activity levels - Management noted that visibility for the third quarter is clearer, but the fourth quarter remains uncertain due to tariff negotiations and market dynamics [16][20] Question: Margins outlook for Q3 and Q4 - Management expects margins to be slightly below the current quarter but within the range of 20% to 25% [38] Question: Sales outlook in Argentina - Management indicated that the situation in Argentina is affected by reduced rig counts and cautious investment approaches [41] Question: Impact of imports on market share - Management stated that imports represent a significant share of demand in the U.S., and the tariff will impact pricing and market dynamics [49] Question: Potential for bringing forward share buybacks - Management confirmed that the second tranche of share buybacks will be considered in the upcoming Board meeting [51] Question: Sensitivity of revenues generated in Mexico - Management provided insights into the number of rigs operated by Pemex and the potential for increased shipments in the future [100] Question: Expectations for the Middle East market - Management noted that while Saudi Arabia has seen reduced activity, other regions in the Middle East are maintaining stable drilling levels [71] Question: Exposure to gas markets in the U.S. - Management highlighted the company's growing activity in gas markets, particularly in Haynesville and Appalachia [86] Question: Inventory levels and pricing dynamics - Management discussed the impact of increased imports on inventory levels and pricing pressures in the U.S. market [92]

Group 1 - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, does not believe that the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts will suddenly dissipate [1] - The risk of falling back into deflation is lower compared to March 2024 [1] - The linkage between inflation and wages continues to persist [1] - Price trends are now closer to the 2% target than before [1]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive time this year it has held rates steady [1] - The voting results for the rate decision were 9 in favor, 2 against, with one member absent; this is the first time since 1993 that two members have opposed the rate decision [1] - Powell stated that no decision has been made regarding the September rate, and they will consider economic information before the next meeting [1] Inflation - Core inflation is influenced by tariffs, with estimates suggesting that 30% to 40% of core inflation may stem from these tariffs [2] - The inflation rate is slightly above the target, but the economy remains solid despite uncertainties [3] - The committee is committed to achieving maximum employment and restoring inflation to the 2% target [4] Economic Outlook - Recent indicators suggest a slowdown in U.S. economic activity during the first half of the year, influenced by fluctuations in net exports [5] - Economic growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.5% last year [6] - The Federal Reserve reiterated that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high, having removed previous language indicating that uncertainty had diminished [7] Financial Markets - The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities [8] Tariffs - Some prices of goods have begun to reflect the impact of higher tariffs more clearly, but the overall effect of tariffs on economic activity and inflation is still under observation [9] - Core PCE in June may have increased by 2.7% year-over-year, with tariffs pushing up prices of certain goods, while long-term inflation expectations remain aligned with the 2% target [10]

摩根大通固定收益全球主管米歇尔：关税的全面影响尚未显现。 ...

加拿大央行：我们已经加强了我们的区域联系，以帮助了解关税的影响，并在对家庭和企业的调查中增 加了新的问题。 ...

今夜美联储7月利率决议，"维持利率不变"几乎板上钉钉，但市场的关注点早已转向主席鲍威尔的表 态：9月是否会降息？两位鸽派理事的罕见"异议"是否将打破共识？特朗普施压、经济数据放缓、关税 影响待解……一场暗流正在汹涌。 9月降息预期升温 美联储今年仅剩三次政策会议。据花旗经济学家Veronica Clark分析，基于6月美联储官员预测的中位数 显示今年将降息两次25个基点，这使得9月降息看起来很可能实现。 "一般官员仍处于观望模式，但9月是非常合理的，"Clark表示。 然而，银行政策研究所(Bank Policy Institute)首席经济学家Bill Nelson指出，关税对通胀的传导仍未完全 显现，鲍威尔可能会保持选择余地，直到对经济方向有更多清晰认识。在下次9月16-17日会议前，决策 者将看到两份就业报告和更多通胀、支出及住房数据。 根据联邦基金期货合约定价，投资者已将9月降息概率定价在60%以上。美联储官员可能不希望这一概 率在审查经济数据前进一步上升。 历史罕见的"官员异议"可能登场 分析认为，如果美联储在会后声明中继续将就业市场描述为"稳固"，可能引发担心美国就业形势更加脆 弱的官员投下反对票 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, highlighting three distinct factions with differing views on when to implement such cuts [1][5][10]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is divided into three main camps: a faction eager for immediate rate cuts due to concerns over the labor market, a middle group waiting for more data on tariff impacts, and a cautious faction preferring to see clear signs of economic weakness before acting [1][5][10]. - The middle camp, represented by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasizes the instability of inflation forecasts and the risks of waiting too long to cut rates, suggesting a need for further data analysis over the next two months [6][10]. - The more aggressive faction, including Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, advocates for immediate rate cuts, arguing that delaying action could worsen labor market conditions [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Signals and Political Pressure - The article notes that the internal divisions are exacerbated by inflation concerns stemming from tariff threats, which have previously led the Fed to pause rate cuts [2][3]. - Political pressure from former President Trump complicates the Fed's decision-making process, as he has been vocal about urging rate cuts and has made public appearances to influence Fed Chair Jerome Powell [9][10]. - Economic data presents mixed signals, with stock markets reaching record highs while long-term bond yields remain elevated, suggesting that the economy may be strong enough to withstand current interest rates [11][12]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Market participants are closely monitoring the Fed's internal debates, particularly Powell's comments during the upcoming press conference, for indications of a potential rate cut in September [14][15]. - Additional employment and inflation data over the next two months will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making, especially for the middle camp that stresses the importance of this data in making informed policy choices [16].