Group 1 - Goldman Sachs strongly recommends incorporating gold and oil into long-term investment portfolios to hedge against inflation risks [1][3] - The traditional 60/40 investment strategy is facing challenges as the correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds has weakened, leading to a failure in risk diversification [3] - Historical data shows that during any 12-month period when both stocks and bonds have negative real returns, either oil or gold tends to achieve positive real returns [1][3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs suggests increasing the allocation of gold in investment portfolios while maintaining a positive but lower allocation for oil, emphasizing their critical role in mitigating inflation shocks [1][3] - Concerns over U.S. fiscal health and the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead to significant buying of gold by private investors, potentially driving prices well above current forecasts [4] - Current forecasts predict gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [4] Group 3 - Strong demand for gold purchases is expected to provide substantial support for gold prices [5] - Despite high idle capacity in the global oil market limiting price increases, uncertainties in the energy market and potential supply shocks make oil allocation important for balancing investment risks [5]

美国副总统万斯在一场比特币活动上宣称：加密货币是一种对冲手段，用以应对华盛顿不佳的政策。 它（加密货币）是对飞涨的通胀的一种对冲。 ...

美国副总统万斯：加密货币是一种对冲手段，用以应对华盛顿不佳的政策。 ...

美国副总统万斯：它（加密货币）是对飞涨的通胀的一种对冲。 ...

据该行称，这些变化将显著提升"传统机构投资者的信心和参与度"。 尽管一季度数字资产回调17.9%(继2024年强劲表现后)，但监管体系明晰化与应用场景多元化正形成关 键助推力。在最新资产配置模型中，摩根大通给予数字资产10%的预期回报率，在所有另类投资类别中 居首。 值得注意的是，此次调升加密货币资产评级至"增持"的同时，该行整体下调了另类投资比重，削减私募 股权、私募信贷及房地产配置。与对冲基金和传统公开市场股票一样，数字资产获得重点推荐。 市场动态显示，尽管机构兴趣回升，加密对冲基金仍持续跑输大盘——2025年及历史数据显示其表现均 落后于比特币本身。摩根大通指出，"主动管理型加密基金的历史业绩始终不及被动型产品"。 报告还将加密资产流入与"货币贬值对冲交易"联系起来，认为通胀压力、财政赤字扩大及法币信用削弱 等长期担忧正推动比特币与黄金共同成为投资组合中的结构性配置。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通已对数字资产转为看涨态度，称多重积极因素有望在2025年持续推动该领 域发展。 以Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou为首的策略师在周一的一份报告中表示："我们对数字资产转为更加积极的看 法。"这一立 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached unprecedented heights, with recent figures surpassing $3500 per ounce, both nominally and in real terms, prompting a lack of urgency among mining companies to hedge their production [1] - The World Gold Council reported that net hedging by producers in Q1 2025 was only 5 tons, continuing a trend of significant reductions in hedging activity [2] - Analysts indicate that the current profit margins for gold mining are at a 50-year high, yet there is little evidence that this will change the industry's approach to hedging [1][2] Group 1: Industry Trends - Mining companies are generally resistant to hedging, preferring to allow shareholders to bet on gold prices rather than locking in prices through hedging [1] - The total amount of hedging in the industry has drastically decreased, with only about 180 tons currently hedged compared to approximately 3000 tons in the early 2000s [2] - Companies are focusing on expanding operations and acquisitions rather than actively increasing hedging to mitigate potential downturns [3] Group 2: Company Perspectives - Regis Resources' CEO noted that the current gold price is favorable, and the company has eliminated hedging positions that previously hindered cash flow [3] - Northern Star Resources, while maintaining some hedging, has not added new positions recently, viewing hedging as a cautious approach to ensure returns on new investments [3] - Westgold Resources' CEO stated that it is a great time for unhedged gold producers in Australia, as the company has cleared its hedging positions [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Japanese central bank's annual meeting is opening today. With Japan's CPI data exceeding expectations, the market has increased its expectations for the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates. The results of last week's Japanese government bond auction were disappointing, and Japanese bond yields rose. Meanwhile, the 20 - year US Treasury bond auction on Thursday was cold, with the bid - to - cover ratio lower than the previous value and the winning yield rising to 5.047%. Despite the high bond yields in the US and Japan, the gold price remains firm, indicating its hedging effect against central bank credit. It is still an alternative to overseas sovereign bond allocations, and the medium - term upward logic is clear [2]. - As of the latest reporting period on May 20, the net long positions of COMEX gold managed funds ended a nine - week decline, increasing by 6,402 lots to 107,629 lots. The net long positions of COMEX silver managed funds rose by 2,112 lots to 30,445 lots [3]. - For gold, it is recommended to hold existing long positions and wait for a significant price correction to buy on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 756 - 836 yuan/gram. Silver has strong upward momentum only when the Fed makes a clear dovish statement. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 7,804 - 8,545 yuan/kilogram [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.23% to 779.72 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.29% to 8,294.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.18% to 3,348.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.16% to 33.59 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.51%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.95 [2]. - The closing prices and changes of various precious metal - related products are presented in detail in the tables, including Au(T + D), London gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, etc. For example, Au(T + D) closed at 773.86 yuan/gram, down 1.86 yuan or - 0.24% from the previous trading day [4]. Market Outlook - The high bond yields in the US and Japan have not suppressed the gold price, highlighting gold's role as a hedge against central bank credit and its status as an alternative to overseas sovereign bond allocations, with a clear medium - term upward trend [2]. Position Analysis - As of May 20, COMEX gold managed funds' net long positions increased by 6,402 lots to 107,629 lots, and COMEX silver managed funds' net long positions rose by 2,112 lots to 30,445 lots [3]. Strategy Suggestions - Gold: Hold existing long positions and buy on dips after a significant price correction. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 756 - 836 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver: Wait and see for now. It has strong upward momentum only when the Fed makes a clear dovish statement. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 7,804 - 8,545 yuan/kilogram [3]. Data Summary - The report provides a detailed summary of key gold and silver data, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, and inventories of COMEX and SHFE gold and silver, as well as their daily changes, daily percentage changes, and historical quantiles over the past year [6].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that for every 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the Chinese stock market could rise by 3%, driven by improved corporate profit outlooks and increased foreign capital inflows [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that under a strong currency, sectors such as non-essential consumer goods, real estate, and brokerage stocks typically perform well [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a rebound in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) in the coming months due to the absorption of excess liquidity in the market [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan suggests that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may further cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as recent domestic data has improved, alleviating some previous concerns [2] - MUFG analysts expect the Japanese yen to remain supported by the potential for further interest rate hikes later this year, despite low expectations from the market [2] - Allianz Group expresses concerns that the U.S. may lose its status as a "reliable investment destination" due to legislative changes affecting clean energy investments [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities forecasts that the yield on China's 10-year government bonds may drop to between 1.4% and 1.5% in the coming months due to stronger demand for fixed-income assets [4] - Everbright Securities reports that China's phosphate fertilizer exports are expected to gradually recover, driven by export demand [4] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the technology growth style is favored, recommending investments in sectors such as robotics and artificial intelligence [4] Group 4 - CITIC Securities emphasizes the need to move away from "interest dependency" as interest rates continue to decline, suggesting a shift towards diversified asset allocation [5] - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the AI computing power sector, driven by advancements in AI models [6] - CITIC Securities notes that the pricing power of core assets is gradually shifting southward, with an increase in IPOs from quality companies in Hong Kong [7] Group 5 - CITIC Securities indicates that the valuation of the brokerage sector is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by favorable liquidity and financial policies [9] - Galaxy Securities observes rapid rotation in market trends, suggesting a cautious approach while focusing on structural investment opportunities [10] - Shenwan Hongyuan reports significant growth potential in Xinjiang's power supply and demand, with expectations for substantial increases in renewable energy generation [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that various institutions view the current U.S. fiscal crisis, weak dollar, and strong physical demand as short- to medium-term bullish factors for gold [1][4] - Citi has revised its three-month gold price target to $3,500, up from $3,300, due to renewed trade tensions and tariff threats from President Trump [2] - Despite the optimistic short-term outlook, Citi analysts express caution regarding the long-term prospects for gold, citing potential adverse factors such as upcoming U.S. midterm elections and high levels of gold held by individuals and households [2][3] Group 2 - Gold's potential demand remains historically strong, with approximately 0.5% of global GDP allocated to gold, the highest level in nearly 50 years, driven by high uncertainty [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties and Trump's tariff policies have contributed to a more than 20% increase in gold prices this year, with Macquarie suggesting that rising inflation could further benefit gold as a hedge [4] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating indicates worsening fiscal conditions, which may lead to increased government debt and interest burdens, further supporting gold prices [4] Group 3 - Trump's apparent desire to weaken the dollar could serve as a strong tailwind for precious metals, as historical trends show an inverse relationship between gold and the dollar [5][6] - Recent months have seen a high inverse correlation between gold and the dollar, with a weaker dollar contributing to strong gold price increases [6] - Despite some easing of trade tensions, significant economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions persist, maintaining a favorable environment for gold as a diversification tool [6]

美国财长贝森特：哈佛大学是一家巨型对冲基金。 ...