25Q1业绩超预期兑现： | 投资要点 | | --- | 2030战略启新程，科技生态人文协同： 公司于2025年4月发布2030战略，以"智新境，向远大"为主题，围绕"科技×生态×人文"三维协 同新范式展开，科技是底层引擎，生态是价值放大器，人文是终极目标，让技术回归「为人服 务」的本质。智能化领域，构建了"量产一代、研发一代、储备一代"的矩阵策略，在辅助驾驶 领域，已经具备"硬件平台+软件算法+系统集成"的全栈能力；全球化布局方面采用「走进去、 属地化」战略，利用技术基因+本土化适配模式，更好地服务全球客户，也能够规避地缘风 险。 用户分类以需定品，需求导向引领技术演进： 公司于2025年4月发布《德赛西威AI出行趋势研究报告》，将用户群体分为三大类， AI辅助一 族年龄相对较大持保守渐进态度， AI协同一族对AI技术接受度高， AI共生一族对技术依赖程 度高，对未来发展持乐观态度；技术演进与设计革新方面，通过AR-HUD案例，展现从需求出 发进行技术融合的全新设计力体系，为后续研发提供「需求洞察-技术验证-商业落地」范式； 报告推演出需求驱动下AI-Space六大趋势，全息守护：AI感知。自然调律：捕 ...

德赛西威（002920） 外延内生并驱，走向 AI 时代 2025 年 04 月 29 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 21,908 | 27,618 | 36,938 | 46,173 | 56,469 | | 同比（%） | 46.71 | 26.06 | 33.75 | 25.00 | 22.30 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,547 | 2,005 | 2,756 | 3,670 | 4,710 | | 同比（%） | 30.57 | 29.62 | 37.45 | 33.19 | 28.32 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.79 | 3.61 | 4.97 | 6.61 | 8.49 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 37.83 | 29.19 | 21.24 | 15.94 | 12.42 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a significant increase in the shipment volume of mobile and automotive CIS products in Q1 2025, leading to a revenue growth of 108.94% year-on-year, with net profit reaching a historical high of 191 million yuan [1][2][3] - The ongoing stimulus policies and the rise of intelligent driving are expected to sustain demand, while the acceleration of domestic substitution due to uncertainties in US-China trade relations will further benefit the company [1][3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.94% and a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.62% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 191 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1264.97% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 60.21% [2] - The gross profit margin improved to 22.79%, up 1.53 percentage points year-on-year and 3.78 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Product and Market Dynamics - The increase in the shipment of 50MP products, particularly in high-end flagship smartphones and automotive cameras, significantly contributed to revenue growth [3][4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for automotive CIS products as intelligent driving technology advances, with the market for automotive CIS expected to grow from 2.3 billion USD in 2023 to 3.155 billion USD by 2029, at a CAGR of 5.4% [5][6] Industry Outlook - The global CIS market is projected to grow from 21.8 billion USD in 2023 to 28.6 billion USD by 2029, with smartphones being the largest application area [4] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position in the smartphone CIS sector, with a projected revenue of 3.291 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 269.05% [4] Growth Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 8.176 billion yuan, 10.302 billion yuan, and 12.672 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 37%, 26%, and 23% respectively [7] - Net profit projections for the same period are 816 million yuan, 1.178 billion yuan, and 1.511 billion yuan, with growth rates of 107.71%, 44.39%, and 28.27% respectively [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 892 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with optical components and microscope revenues at 513 million and 356 million yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 23% and a decrease of 14% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 209 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, primarily due to the absence of one-time gains from land acquisition and increased R&D expenses; however, the non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 14.3% to 185 million yuan [1] - In Q4 2024, revenue was 241 million yuan, with a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter change of -0.9% and +8.5% respectively; net profit attributable to shareholders was 68 million yuan, with a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter change of +10.9% and +68.0% respectively, meeting market expectations [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 220 million yuan, with a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter change of +1.8% and -8.9% respectively; net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 million yuan, with a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter change of +22.2% and -18.5% respectively, also meeting market expectations [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The demand for microscopes is showing signs of recovery from a low point, with a strategic opportunity for domestic substitution; despite a 14% year-on-year decline in microscope revenue to 356 million yuan in 2024, sales increased by 8.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, indicating a potential recovery in 2025 [2] - The company is making significant investments in high-end microscopes and has achieved technological breakthroughs, such as leading a national major instrument project for "multi-modal nano-resolution microscopy," indicating a broad space for domestic substitution in the long term [2] Group 3: Optical Components and Growth Areas - The company is diversifying its optical components business, with significant growth in barcode scanning due to customer inventory adjustments and recovering overseas demand; collaborations with clients like Zebra and Honeywell are expected to contribute substantial incremental revenue [3] - In the field of LiDAR, the company has established close partnerships with leading clients such as Hesai and Valeo, with revenue surpassing 100 million yuan in 2024; the penetration rate of LiDAR is expected to increase rapidly, driving continued high revenue growth for the company [3] - In the medical optics sector, the company has seen rapid growth in endoscope optical components and achieved technological breakthroughs in surgical microscope optical components, indicating a positive outlook for new growth engines [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains a forecast of 332 million yuan for net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025 and introduces a revenue forecast of 1.459 billion yuan and net profit of 428 million yuan for 2026; the current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 29x and 22x for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4] - The target price has been raised by 19% to 104.66 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 35x and 27x for 2025 and 2026, indicating an upside potential of 22% [4]

25Q1销量100万辆且出口占比提升，全年我们预计25-30%增长： 公司25年Q1销100万辆，同环比+60%/-34%，国内市占率35%，基本维持稳定，出口21万辆， 同环比+110%/+72%，高端车5.3万辆，同环比+37%/-16%，其中腾势/仰望/方程豹销3.3/0.05/1.9 万辆，同比+37%/-85%/+74%，环比-8%/-42%/-26%，出海+高端化合计占比26%，同环比 +4/+14pct。公司25年推出超级e平台，打造10C兆瓦级闪充，叠加智驾平权+dmi出海，我们预 计全年销量550万辆，同增25-30%，出口翻倍至80万辆+。 Q1结构优化单车盈利亮眼，25年预计维持9k+： 我 们 预 计 25Q1 单 车 价 格 15.1 万 元 ( 含 税 ) ， 同 环 比 -6%/-7% ， 单 车 毛 利 3.2 万 元 ， 同 环 比-20%/+12%，单车净利0.87万元，同环比+31%/-6%，合计贡献利润87亿元，同环比 +110%/-39%。25年公司全面普及智驾车型，我们预计单车成本增加4千元左右，但出口+高端 化占比有望升至25%+，叠加规模效应带动单车折旧下降，我 ...

0 1 事 件 概 述 2025Q1公司营业收入1,703.6亿元，同比+36.3%，环比-38.0%；归母净利为91.5亿元，同比+100.3%，环比-39.1%；扣非净利润为81.7亿元，同比+117.8%， 环比-40.7%。 0 2 分 析 判 断 ► 营收同比高增 单车ASP小幅下滑 营收端： 2025Q1销量100.1万辆，同比+59.8%，环比-34.3%，其中高端车型占比5.3%，同比-0.9pct，环比+1.2pct，出口占比20.6%，同比+5.0pct，环比 +12.8pct。受益整体销量同比提升，2025Q1公司营业收入1,703.6亿元，同比+36.3%，环比-38.0%； ASP： 2025Q1单车ASP 13.34万元，同比-0.79万元，环 比-1.08万元（主要原因是国内市场王朝海洋车型小幅降价及产品结构变化所致）。 ► 单车毛利、净利小幅下降 研发费用率提升 毛利端 ：2025Q1整体毛利率20.1%，汽车+电池毛利率23.9%，比亚迪电子毛利率6.3%，考虑2024Q4会计政策调整（销售费用中的保证类质量保证改为列示于营业 成本，多计提营业成本124亿），2025Q1整体 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 370.83 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 170.36 billion CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.15 billion CNY, up 100.3% year-on-year but down 39.1% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased export sales and improved economies of scale, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 at 1,014.12 billion CNY, 1,237.23 billion CNY, and 1,477.25 billion CNY respectively [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company sold 1.001 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 59.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 34.3%. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 133,400 CNY, down 7900 CNY year-on-year [1]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.1%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the automotive and battery gross margin was 23.9%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. International Expansion and Technological Advancements - The company is accelerating its overseas factory construction and aims to enhance its presence in markets such as Brazil, Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia. In Q1 2025, export sales reached 206,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 110.5% [3]. - The company is leveraging its data advantages to promote "intelligent driving equality," which is expected to drive industry-wide collaboration and development [3]. Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 58.12 billion CNY, 67.09 billion CNY, and 74.17 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 19.12 CNY, 22.08 CNY, and 24.41 CNY [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 370.83 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 170.36 billion CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.15 billion CNY, up 100.3% year-on-year but down 39.1% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, with plans to establish factories in Brazil, Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia, which is expected to boost profitability [3]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 1,014.12 billion CNY, 1,237.23 billion CNY, and 1,477.25 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 58.12 billion CNY, 67.09 billion CNY, and 74.17 billion CNY [4]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company sold 1.001 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 59.8%, with an average selling price (ASP) of 133,400 CNY, which is a slight decrease compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.1%, with the automotive and battery gross margin at 23.9%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.8 percentage points [2]. - The report indicates that the increase in net profit is primarily due to the higher proportion of export sales and enhanced economies of scale [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to accelerate its intelligent driving initiatives, leveraging its data advantages to promote widespread adoption of smart driving technologies [3]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) to be 19.12 CNY, 22.08 CNY, and 24.41 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 17, and 15 [4].

Core Viewpoint - SAIC-GM-Wuling is shifting its strategy to capture the mid-size car market with the launch of the Wuling Xingguang, which features L2-level assisted driving technology and starts at a pre-sale price of 109,800 yuan [1][9]. Group 1: Product Strategy - The company aims to target a younger demographic with a more youthful design and practical technology configurations in its products [2][5]. - Wuling's product line is focused on moving "upward" in the market, with plans to introduce the Xingguang S SUV and potentially other models like MPVs [4][9]. - The company intends to simplify the introduction of product features, focusing on essential functionalities to meet real user needs [6][9]. Group 2: Market Positioning - The mid-size car market is highly competitive, with prices for joint venture models like Passat and Camry dropping below 150,000 yuan [5]. - Wuling plans to leverage the spaciousness of its vehicles and refresh the interior design to compete effectively in this segment [5]. Group 3: Technology and Cost Management - The Xingguang is Wuling's first model equipped with advanced assisted driving capabilities, including highway navigation and full-scene parking functions [9]. - The company aims to reduce costs through scale and pragmatic technology, ensuring that users receive a good experience at a lower price point [9]. Group 4: Channel Strategy - Wuling is undergoing a channel transformation by separating commercial and passenger vehicle sales, allowing dealerships to focus on specific market segments [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [1] Core Views - The Q1 performance of BYD is impressive, with revenue reaching 170.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36% [7] - The company expects a sales growth of 25-30% for the year, with a target of 5.5 million vehicles sold [7] - BYD's net profit for Q1 is reported at 9.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 100% [7] - The report anticipates a target price of 507 yuan for 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of 28x [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for BYD are as follows: - 2023: 602.3 billion yuan - 2024: 777.1 billion yuan - 2025: 983.3 billion yuan - 2026: 1,157.1 billion yuan - 2027: 1,316.1 billion yuan - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 30.0 billion yuan - 2024: 40.3 billion yuan - 2025: 55.0 billion yuan - 2026: 68.3 billion yuan - 2027: 82.1 billion yuan - The report indicates an EPS of 9.88 yuan for 2023, increasing to 27.02 yuan by 2027 [1][8] Sales and Market Share - BYD's Q1 sales reached 1 million vehicles, with a domestic market share of 35% [7] - The export volume for Q1 was 210,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 110% [7] - The report highlights that high-end vehicle sales reached 53,000 units in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 37% [7] Cost and Profitability - The average selling price per vehicle in Q1 was 151,000 yuan, with a gross profit of 32,000 yuan per vehicle [7] - The report projects that single vehicle profit will maintain above 9,000 yuan despite an expected increase in costs due to the introduction of smart driving models [7] Capital Expenditure and Inventory - BYD's capital expenditure in Q1 was 37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42% [7] - The inventory at the end of Q1 was reported at 154.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 33% increase from the beginning of the year [7]